Bitching About The Pitching

    It's official.  Jon Lester is a Chicago Cub now.  I wish him all the best and if he can bring a championship to the Cubs, the Windy City could very well be renamed Lestertown.  I don't begrudge his decision.  After all, it's not like he signed with the Yankees.   I still respect him and what he did for the Red Sox while he was here, helping them win two World Series.   That being said, I'm sure going to miss him and I sure as hell wish he were the Red Sox' 2015 Opening Day starter.  

    As of now, it's anyone's guess who takes the hill on Opening Day because this rotation has no leader.   Buchholz may be the longest tenured member, but trying to predict which version of him the Red Sox will get in 2015 is a fool's errand.  Someone with such a high ceiling and such a low floor cannot be expected to lead this rotation.   After losing out on Lester, the Sox went out and collected a glut of #3 starters in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson.  Out of the three, I have the highest hopes for Porcello, but he's a #2 at the very most and more conservatively, a #3 on a team that expects to contend for a championship.

   If the 2013 and 2014 World Series taught us anything it is that the team who wins it all has an ace who can end the game for the other team.   For the 2013 Red Sox, that was Jon Lester.   For the 2014 Giants, it was Madison Bumgarner.  Once Bumgarner toed the rubber in Game 7, it was all over for the Royals.   He was the difference in a hard-fought series.  The Royals simply did not have a pitcher that could shut down the opposition like Bumgarner did for the Giants.  Expecting the Red Sox to go from worst to first to worst to first again is hardly realistic, but if you're building a team with championship aspirations, you need that stopper.  It's amazing that the Royals got as far as they did without a Bumgarner-esque pitcher of their own. 

 When the Red Sox picked up both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, two of the best free agent hitters on the market, in late November, it appeared they were ready to go all in for 2015.   Of course, landing Lester was far from a sure thing, especially since they traded him at the deadline.   However, since Lester is no longer an option, I was hoping they would trade for more of a top of the rotation guy and not a set of mid-rotation arms.   Three #3s do not make a #1.   It's good to have depth to avoid absolute disaster on the back end, but putting the burden on a Porcello, a Miley, or a Masterson to lead the rotation is just not fair.   Porcello, at 25 could surprise us all and become a Bumgarner 2.0, but having to adjust to the AL East won't do him any favors.   Miley will have an even bigger adjustment to make, coming from the pitcher's park haven that was the NL West.   Masterson is coming off a truly dreadful season and looks like more of a reliever than a starter.   Joe Kelly is a good, solid #4.  

 With Lester out of the picture, who should they target to lead the rotation? 

  1.  Jordan Zimmermann:  He would be my first choice, providing he doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie Betts and preferably not Bogaerts or Swihart either.   With the Nats planning on competing, it's going to take a blue chip to land Zimm, even if he's a one-year rental. Even though he comes from the NL, he has enough talent to take a chance on him. 

 2.  Johnny Cueto:  Another potential ace coming from the NL who might command too high a prospect haul and comes with an injury history.  However, if he's healthy and doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie, Xander, or Blake, he's worth it.  

3.  Max Scherzer:  This one falls under pipe dream because it will require stupid money.  If they couldn't pony up for their home-grown ace, fat chance they shell out the king's ransom for Scherzer.  
  
4. James Shields:  He's getting long in the tooth and his performance in the World Series was a huge red flag, but he's a veteran presence among youngsters and won't cost as much as Lester or Scherzer and no prospects have to be given up to get him.   He's more of a #2 and his best days might be behind him.  Still, he's durable and for 2015 and maybe 2016 he can be that veteran presence at the front of the rotation.  

5. Cole Hamels:  His numbers against the AL are a huge red flag, especially if the Phillies are commanding the best prospects for him.   The Red Sox don't play enough interleague games to take the chance here. 

6. Doug Fister:  Like Shields, he's more of a #2.  He's also a 1-year rental.  However, he's more capable of leading a rotation than any of the current Red Sox starters. 

     The rest of the offseason is going to be interesting, seeing what else, if anything, the Red Sox do to improve the rotation.   If they stand pat, we're looking at a third or fourth place team.   It's better than last place, but it's not going to make them competitive.  

Panda AND Hanley? Can They Pitch?

   I could hardly believe what I was reading this morning when I saw on my facebook news feed that the Red Sox have reached agreements with both Pablo "Panda" Sandoval and erstwhile Sox farmhand turned superstar Hanley Ramirez.  Part of me is thrilled to have two huge impact bats joining an offense-starved team.  Part of me is wondering, is this the 2010-2011 offseason all over again?   Still another part of me is wondering, what about the pitching?  

  This being November 24, the offseason is far from over, so there is plenty of time and still plenty of $$$ to add to the pitching staff.   When you go all in with guys like Panda and Hanley, however, it makes little sense not to add an elite starting pitcher (or two) to a currently laughable rotation.  Signing Lester (or Scherzer) is just about mandatory now, as is bringing aboard a #2 starter that is not a steep drop-off from #1.  

   It's obvious that Panda will play third base, but what isn't so obvious is where Hanley Ramirez will play.   Hanley started his career in the Red Sox system and was traded to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2005.  He has played most of his career at shortstop, but the Red Sox have a promising young shortstop in Xander Bogaerts.  While Bogaerts struggled for much of the year, he finished strong and it would be premature to give up on him as a shortstop.  It's possible Hanley could move to the outfield to pave the way for a Yoenis Cespedes trade.  When Big Papi calls it a career, Hanley could move to DH. 

   This offseason just got real...

Bring Back Jonny!

    If the Red Sox hope to compete next year, their top priority needs to be signing Jon Lester.   Max Scherzer is out there as well and is considered a better pitcher than Lester--the top free-agent pitching prize on the market.   He presents a bigger risk, however, as he has yet to make the transition from power pitcher to finesse pitcher and he has not played in a market like Boston.   Lester has made the transition and he's spent all but two months of his career in Boston.   Even though he's a year older than Scherzer, he is worth a long term (six-year) deal in the $150m range.   I would certainly not be upset if the Red Sox sign Scherzer to a long-term deal, but I think they would be wiser to turn to the guy they know and they've watched develop. 

   As it stands right now, the Red Sox need two pitchers at the top of the rotation.  Lester, should they be smart and pony up the $$$ and the years for him, solves the #1 slot, but who is #2?   A free agent?  Trade?  There are a lot of nice options on the trade market, but none of them, short of the pipe dream of trading for Chris Sale, are at the level of Lester.  Hamels is close, but his numbers in limited time against the AL have been abysmal.   He would also cost a big prospect haul (Don't trade Mookie!).   Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos of the Reds have been mentioned, as have Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross of the Padres.  The Red Sox need reliable pitchers atop the rotation because Joe Kelly is a #3 at the very best and who knows what we'll get out of Clay Buchholz.  Then, we have the assorted flotsam and jetsam that toed the rubber in August and September to fight for the #5 spot.  Getting that #1, however is the first step.  

Crowned Royals

   If you'd have asked anyone at the beginning of the season who would be representing the American League in the 2014 World Series, how many would have picked the Kansas City Royals?   Even in the eighth inning of the AL Wild Card game they looked like a long shot, down 7-3 to the A's with Lester on the mound.   Something happened in that eighth inning, however, that flipped on a switch that has yet to be flipped off.   The Royals wreaked havoc on the basepaths, rallied to tie the game, and won it in extra innings.  This set off a chain of events that had the A's, Angels, and Orioles dazed, their mouths hanging open as if to say "Wha happened?"  The Orioles, coming straight off their dismantling of the Detroit Tigers, looked poised to make the ALCS a hard-fought series, but the Royals stunned them too.  

   For fans of Kansas City's blue man baseball group, this playoff appearance, let alone World Series appearance, is long overdue.  In 1985, when much of the young roster wasn't yet born, the Royals defeated the Cardinals in the Fall Classic 4 games to 3.   If the Cards can extricate themselves from the Giants' October magic, The Missouri Series would have a long-awaited sequel.   However, the Giants in the 2010s have been an extremely dangerous team in October, with two previous postseasons of unreal playoff mojo.   Can they match the special post-season [barbecue] sauce that Kansas City is cooking up?  

  If it is indeed the Giants meeting the Royals for the 2014 Fall Classic, it will be the first time in a non-shortened season (of at least 154 games) that neither of the two teams meeting in the World Series won at least 90 games in the regular season.  The Royals went 89-73; the Giants went 88-74.   Even in the strike-shortened 1995 season (144 games), the Braves won 90 and the Indians won 100.   In the Wild Card era, two Wild Card teams have met in the World Series only once before, in 2002, when the Angels beat the Giants 4 games to 3. 

  Five years ago, the Royals and Orioles were at the bottom of the AL heap.  To see those two teams in this year's ALCS is a testament to greater parity in baseball.   Player development is in and big spending on free agents on the back nine of their careers is out.  That's not to say that teams in transition such as the Red Sox should rely exclusively on youngsters and prospects.   That makes for a long rebuilding process, which would send ticket sales, merchandise sales, and NESN ratings plummeting.   It just doesn't play in the New England sports market.   The Red Sox need a balance of pricey vets and talented youngsters and therein lies the challenge.  

Let's Go...Royals?

    With apologies to Lorde...

       My Red Sox are staying home
       And the Nats got taken out by the Giants
       I'm not really fond of Buck
       And the Cards just made the World Series last year

       Chorus: 
       So now I'm all about Hosmer, Shields, Lorenzo Cain, Greg Holland
       Gordon, Butler, Dyson, Vargas, Guthrie
       Behind the plate, they've got Salvador Perez
       Now they're up two to none--That's what speed do, extra-inning baseball
       Cain is able, two games from the World Series
       Been fun to watch, they haven't been there since '85
       This month I root for the Royals (Royals)
       Though I still miss last year
       Gotta find a team to cheer
       Blue October's in this year
       Go win the AL pennant (pennant)
       The fall classic's in your reach
       So beat the O's, the O's, the O's, the O's
       And then win the World Series

       The Royals won the first Wild Card
       They put the drop on the Oakland A's and Jon Lester
       Took the Angels down in three
       Then they beat the O's, there in Charm City

       Chorus

       For October, they're my team
       They suffered so many bad seasons
       Now it's their time to shine, it stands to reason
       To root for the Royals (Royals)
       Though I still miss last year
       Gotta find a team to cheer
       Blue October's in this year
       Go win the AL Pennant (pennant)
       The Fall Classic's in your reach
       So beat the O's the O's the O's the O's
       And then win the World Series.

Closing the Book on 2014

  I'm sorry I haven't blogged in awhile.  I'd drafted some posts, but canned them because they were too knee-jerk and too negative.   Now that the season is [mercifully] over, here are my more calm and rational thoughts on 2014 and how the Red Sox can improve for 2015 and beyond.

   The 2014 season served as a reminder that exceedingly few prospects transform into legitimate major-leaguers overnight.   Even Mike Trout, the poster boy for seamless transition to the big-time, had his struggles at the beginning.   Trout's struggles were very brief and his meteoric ascension into superstardom has set the bar impossibly high for prospects around the game.   For the sake of this Red Sox blog, we will focus the two prospects that the team attempted to lean heavily on going into the season:  Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.

   For Bradley, who struggled at the plate with limited time in the majors in 2013, he was supposed to be the future in center field--an elite defender with a decent bat that could soften the blow of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to "the dark side".   Bradley consistently impressed with his glove, once throwing a ball over the center field wall while standing on home plate, but struggled mightily with the bat, hovering over the Mendoza line all season.  For a brief time in July, he looked like he was starting to turn it around, only to return to business as usual for the remainder of the season, even after being sent down to Pawtucket to work on his swing.

   Xander Bogaerts had a far more favorable introduction to the Show at the end of the 2013 season and into the post-season, eventually supplanting Will Middlebrooks at third base.   He was an impact player when the lights were brightest and looked destined to follow through on the gargantuan potential he was thought to have possessed.   Through the early days of the 2014 season, he continued to show promise with the bat, even as he struggled playing shortstop.   His defensive struggles at one of the most important defensive positions in the game prompted the Red Sox to make an emergency call to a still-unsigned Stephen Drew.  Xander was moved back to third base and Drew's long layoff proved lethal for his lumber.

    Around that time, Xander had begun sliding into a slump that no one could have seen coming.   He had absolutely vanished at the plate while still dealing with some defensive struggles, leading some fans and media to believe that maybe the hype and pressure to perform in Boston was too much for him after all.   How else to explain the baffling disappearance of his bat?   The slump was so prolonged that, once Bradley was sent down to Pawtucket, it was fair to wonder whether Bogaerts would follow suit.   He never did and his slump continued until mid-August, when he was plunked in the helmet by a pitch and was placed on the 7-day concussion DL.  When he re-emerged in the final days of the month, his bat began to register a pulse.   The days of rest while on the DL appeared to have been the best thing to happen to him all season, giving him a week away from the game to recoup and regroup.   He finished the season on a strong note, batting .313 in September.

    The story of the 2014 Red Sox rookies wasn't all about the struggles, however.  Brock Holt made a case to be a regular in the lineup when he hit .348 in April after being cut from the major-league squad in favor of Jonathan Herrerra leading up to opening day.   His second half saw a rather steep drop-off, but he was the Red Sox' most versatile player and projects more as a super-utility player than a starter.

     Mookie Betts wasn't even on the radar in 2013, but he tore up the upper minors in 2014, leading to his first call-up in late June.  He had another brief call-up before he was up for good in August.   Betts ended the year hitting .291 with 5 HR and 18 RBI, spending his last two weeks playing second in place of the injured Dustin Pedroia.   Second base is his natural position, where he is blocked by Pedroia.  The 2015 outfield is crowded with Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Betts.   Some of those outfielders could be traded and, unfortunately, the most attractive trade chip is the charismatic Mookie, whose style of play is reminiscent of the World Championship 2013 team.   It would be painful to trade such a talented and likeable guy.  If the reward is right, however (and it would have to be a much-needed #1 or #2 starter or middle-of-the-order bat) such a trade might be a necessary sacrifice (think Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2006).

    As for the starting rotation, it would be a gross understatement to say that a lot of things changed from Opening Day to September 28.   Gone are Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront.  The August and September rotation included the likes of enigmatic Clay Buchholz, trade return Joe Kelly, the Buchholz-esque Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo.   Save for a strong performance here and there, it was a rotation of opposing teams' dreams and Red Sox fans' nightmares.
    
     Ironically it was Webster, who, at times looked petrified on a major-league mound, who finished the season the strongest.   De La Rosa, as a consequence of being used as a starter early in the season, showed signs of dead arm as the season ended.   Workman and Ranaudo might be better off in the bullpen.  Joe Kelly looks like a solid mid-back end starter.   We know Buchholz is sticking around, for better or worse, unless he is surprisingly dealt in a buy-low trade.   What is missing are two legitimate front-line starters and that's where the Red Sox have their work cut out for them, especially if they want to avoid giving out long contracts to pitchers over 30.  Jon Lester coming back is a longshot, especially if he pitches the Oakand A's deep into October.   Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will also cost a bundle in money and years.   James Shields is a few years older and likely less expensive, therefore being the most likely Red Sox target.

      The Red Sox made some big gambles that backfired spectacularly on them this year.  They gambled on rookies to replace free-agency losses.  They threw a monkey wrench into clubhouse chemistry by signing AJ Pierzynski.  They relied too heavily on guys like Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino who both had career years in 2013.  While Nava recovered from his early season slump, Victorino just couldn't stay on the field.  Pedey stayed on the field, but battled yet another secret injury, to the detriment of his batting line.   Napoli also battled nagging injuries all over his body that caused him to miss games here and there.   The starting pitching, led by Lester and Lackey, kept the team in the game more often than not in the first half, only to have the offense let them down game after game.

     The front office has a lot of work to do in getting the Red Sox back to respectability next year.   There are lessons to be learned from what happened in 2014.  Not all of the problems the Red Sox faced were the result of poor planning.  An extreme reversal of fortune, a pendulum swinging wildly the other way after catching more than their share of breaks in 2013, played a role as well. That said, leadership roles within the organization must be at least a subject of discussion in the offseason. 

      A World Championship season followed by a last-place finish clouds the picture of where or whether improvements need to be made with the coaching staff, but it wouldn't hurt to consider whether, say, a new hitting coach might help maximize the potential of some of the younger players.   The makeup of the team in 2013 was heavy with veterans where as the 2014 offense depended on the production of several rookies or near-rookies.   A team moving in the direction of younger players has different coaching needs than a veteran-laden squad.   To be fair, Greg Colbrunn dealt with health issues during the season.   The role of assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez is unclear--how many major league teams have two hitting coaches?  Do too many cooks spoil the soup? 

     The Red Sox having played their final game of 2014, I plan on rooting for my hometown team, the Nationals, in the post-season, hoping they learned their lessons from 2012 and at least make it to the NLCS this time, if not the Fall Classic.  I will root for Jon Lester to pitch the A's into the ALDS, partly because there are so many former Red Sox on that team.   I can take solace in the fact that neither the Yankees nor the Rays will be playing October baseball either.  

It's a Sad, Sad, Sad, Sad World

   No, Lester hasn't been traded yet, but it seems all but inevitable now.   Rumors are circulating about Lackey being traded as well.   Imagine a rotation led by Clay Buchholz.  Sad and scary times indeed!   The offense is doing their usual sputtering thing, even though Xander is showing signs of improvement at the plate, if not in the field.  On the other hand, JBJ seems to have undone whatever progress he had made.   The Red Sox were annihilated by the Blue Jays yet again and have dug themselves back to 12 games under .500.   They are a worse team this year than they were in the 93-loss 2012, led by Bobby Valentine.

    If they lose 40 of the 54 games remaining, they will lose 100 games for the first time in nearly 50 years.   After winning a World Series, however improbable and fluky that win was, following it up with a 100 loss season is hard to fathom.   It's about as Jekyll and Hyde as it comes.   The current ownership may have seen three World Championships in its tenure, but it has also seen the team go from worst to first back down to worst again (and, in all likelihood, even worse than the first "worst".).   The trade deadline may very well be a fire sale leading to a long rebuilding process.   They ownership may spin a tale about quick rebuilding, but when you sell away your top pitcher, a homegrown guy at that, with no ready replacement, no "Plan B", the quick rebuild story is BS.   Sell off Lackey too?   Is the plan "Wait 'til 2020"?   Or is there a plan at all? 

    Winning the World Series last year was a great thing, but it raised expectations.   As for me, I wasn't expecting a repeat.   I was, however, expecting them to at least be competitive, or even somewhat respectable.  But this?   I was not expecting this, but maybe I should have been.    After all, the front office did some significant subtraction from the team what won it all without adding much to offset what they took away.   What kind of message did that send the team?   "Sorry, but we're not going to help you this year.  You're on your own.  Good luck with that."?

    What the Red Sox are putting out on the field now is disheartening, depressing, and a far cry from just a short year ago.   With the moves the front office seems to want to make, expect more of the same in the years to come.   I fail to see how drifting about aimlessly in the bottom of the MLB barrel will help the development of the prospects on which the Red Sox are banking so heavily.  

Just Pay Him Already!

      If you heard the "ka-chings" that went off after every strikeout, every scoreless inning of Jon Lester's outing against the Royals today, that was the southpaw's price tag getting higher.   Lester blanked Kansas City over 8 frames, earning his tenth win and the first Red Sox sweep of an opponent since Big Papi was in Little League.   In one corner is Jon Lester, his 2.50 ERA, his history of post-season dominance, and his 200-inning durability.    In the other corner, Ben Cherington and a pathologically gun-shy front office who would sooner call Brian Cashman up with Lester's jersey size than give him a long-term, big-money contract extension.   Yes, the Carl Crawford mega-contract bombed.  Yes, Adrian Gonzalez left his power on the West Coast.  No, neither Gonzalez nor Crawford were brought up in the Red Sox system and neither knew beforehand what it was like to play in a baseball and media-crazed city like Boston.  

       Taking a gamble on Lester would be taking a gamble on a known entity as far as how well he could pitch in the AL East and handle playing in Boston, pitching at a hitter's park like Fenway.  Sure he had a crappy 2012 and he gets a little agitated when calls don't go his way, but he's battle-tested in one of the toughest markets in MLB.  All free-agent pitchers of his talent level and career pedigree are going to be paid up the wazoo.   If the Red Sox think they can replace Lester by a trade or another free agent, they would be taking a bigger risk than extending him even if the "replacement" is on a shorter deal.  Why?  It's unknown how said "replacement" will respond to pitching in conditions that Lester has pitched in for the past seven years. 

       Replacing Lester from within the farm has its own risks, the greatest of which is the unfair pressure he would inevitably be under to be the new ace of the staff.  None of the current pitchers in the rotation are front-line material.  Lackey, if he returns, will be 36 and he has battled some inconsistency of late.  Buchholz has been wildly inconsistent and has trouble staying healthy.   Peavy is gone, likely at the trade deadline, and Workman and De La Rosa project as back-of-the-rotation guys.  Even top pitching prospect Henry Owens is projected to be a #2 or #3 at best and he has yet to pitch in the major leagues.

  If the Red Sox want to contend next year, they need to sign Lester.   As Lester ages, maybe one of the youngsters will outperform his projection and become an ace, but asking him to be #1 from the moment he suits up for his Red Sox debut is not the way to go.   They have enough young players making league minimum that they can afford to sign Lester to the kind of deal he deserves.   The only question is, will they pony up and do it or go small market and try to sell a multi-year rebuilding process with the highest ticket prices in baseball.  

A Shred of Optimism

   To say Red Sox 2014 season has been horrible is a gross understatement.   Bad decisions and good ones that didn't work out are both to blame for the hideous hangover season that transformed the Sox from a run-producing machine to a lethargic opportunity-wasting bunch of hopeless hackers.   That being said, one of the leaden clouds over this year's team (but certainly not the only one!) has been removed in the DFA-ing of AJ Pierzynski.   Replacing the free-swinging, abrasively opinionated veteran backstop is young defensive whiz Christian Vazquez, who was promoted from Pawtucket in time for Wednesday night's walk-off win.  Vazquez has impressed so far not only with the glove, as was to be expected, but with the bat as well.   Granted, the sample size is minuscule and the competition is either not much better than (White Sox) or worse than (Astros) the Red Sox, but having a guy who can control the opponents' running game is an upgrade even if the offensive spark does not last.  

    The jettisoning of Pierzynski is a sign that the front office is committed to using 2014 as a proving ground for promising prospects since they are an extreme longshot for contention this year.   If they can unload Peavy, who has actually pitched fairly well of late, if lacking in run support to improve his record, they will clear a rotation spot for Rubby De La Rosa or one of the other talented arms biding their time in AAA.  

    As far as the youngsters currently on the team are concerned, Jackie Bradley, Jr, in particular, is finally starting to put it together at the plate.  His Gold-Glove caliber defense in center field has allowed him some time to work on getting his bat up to speed and the results are starting to show.   Mookie Betts has seen his hot streak cool down significantly since getting called up to the bigs, but he looks like he's making the necessary adjustments and his speed is something that has been sorely lacking in the Sox lineup since Ells departed for The Dark Side.   Xander Bogaerts is slowly, but surely coming out of his deep slump.   Brock Holt is still abusing baseballs with not a hair out of place and has played every position but pitcher and catcher.  

    On the pitching side of things, Brandon Workman has hit a bump in the road since returning from his controversial suspension.  He is winless since then and has seen his ERA balloon to 4.13.   Rubby De La Rosa struggled a bit in Pawtucket upon being demoted in a roster crunch last month and came up last Wednesday with a so-so outing (5 IP, 3 R).   Though not a rookie by any stretch, Clay Buchholz has appreciably improved since coming off the DL.  He helped the Sox take an easy 11-0 win over the Astros by pitching a complete-game shutout.  

    Since Pierzynski was DFA'ed, the Red Sox are 4-1 with two walk-off wins.  Granted, the stretch was against the White Sox and the Astros, not the A's and Tigers, but with the depths the Sox had sunk to so far in '14 (ahem, being swept by the Cubs), I'll take that 4-1 stretch no matter who the opponent.   The improvements the rookies (among others) have made will, in all likelihood, not get them anywhere close to undoing the damage done to the season so far.  However, if they can pick up where they left off once the All-Star Break ends, at least they will be a more fun team to watch.  

Fire Sale: Everything (but Lester) must go!

    With the Red Sox firmly entrenched in The Land of Crappy Baseball (to put it mildly), it's become more clear than ever that they should be sellers at the trade deadline.  One big exception to the sell, sell, sell mantra is Jon Lester.   Jon Lester may not at the very top of the major league pitching pyramid and he has his drawbacks, but he's the best pitcher the Red Sox have at the moment and he is a proven post-season stud.   The Red Sox may have a farm full of young pitching, but none of those arms currently projects higher than mid-rotation.   Ergo, there is currently nobody to take Lester's place should he depart for free agency in the off-season. 

     Ben Cherington is a GM who is loath to give out long-term deals to free agents.   His strategy may have worked in 2013, but most of the time it reads as small-market strategy that puts a team in perpetual rebuilding mode.   The Red Sox are not a small-market team.  They can afford to give out large, long-term contracts to the right players.   The key is determining who the right players are.   I believe that Lester is one of those "right players" and that failing to extend him is as good as fitting him with pinstripes.   The Yankee way of relying on aging stars at the expense of developing the farm has its own problems, but a combination of developing young talent and ponying up for the proven veteran is a strategy that should keep a team contending most years.  

      If the Red Sox don't extend Jon Lester, which would be a huge mistake as far as I'm concerned, they could face a multi-year rebuild that would not go over so well with the fanbase.   Some rebuilding is necessary, but waiting three or four years for a new frontline pitcher to establish himself, if that even happens, could mean more seasons just like this one.   There are options on the free agent market, but the ones worth paying (i.e. Scherzer) would cost just as much, if not more, than the one who has proven he can handle playing in Boston and pitching in a hitter's park like Fenway.  

     As far as who the Red Sox can part with, the first to go should be A.J. Pierzynski.   The return of the whining and excuse making that characterized the 2012 team under Bobby Valentine suggests that something is rotten in the Red Sox clubhouse.   It may not be fair to dump all the blame on Pierzynski, but he came to Boston with a reputation for rubbing his teammates the wrong way.   Peavy is next in line and his back-to-back quality starts should help his trade value.  Lackey shouldn't be untouchable either.  Gomes, Carp, Mujica, Badenhop, Breslow, and even Koji could be shopped.  The prospect haul might not be that impressive, but it clears the way for some of the young talent on the farm to get their feet wet at the major league level.  Some might not be ready for prime time, but this season is lost anyway.  The Red Sox might as well see what they've got in some of those kids. 

Send In The Kids

    The 2014 Red Sox consist of one guy giving his all and getting results. Trouble is, Brock Holt's One-Man MLB Team has to compete with 25-man MLB teams to win baseball games.   Seeing as there is only one Brock Holt, drawing walks, getting hits and making highlight-reel catches, things are looking pretty bleak for the Sox right now.   The season is a lost cause so now it's time to...

  Send in the Kids (sung to the tune of Send in the Clowns)

This year's a bust
Going nowhere
Just last year they were on top, now such despair
So send in the kids

This team can't hit
 Can't drive runs in
Even when pitchers toss gems
They cannot win.  
Where are the kids?
Send in the kids!

Things won't improve just as they are
The status quo won't help them much in 2015
Mookie, Rubby, Cecchini, and Vazquez need to be up.
See what they can do
Before next year.  

'14's a farce
Nothing's gone right
For all that '13 gave them
'14 took away.
But where are the kids
Quick, send in the kids
Why aren't they yet here?

Goodbye, AJ
Goodbye Peavy
Victorino we miss you so much
But you can't stay healthy.
And where are the kids?
There ought to be kids.
Don't wait 'till next year!  

Rebuilding The Bridge

    Let's face it:  The 2014 Red Sox cannot realistically be considered contenders at this point.   This season has been maddening, frustrating, and disappointing in every way that it was surprising, exciting, and uplifting last year.   Everything that went thrillingly right in 2013 has gone horribly wrong in 2014.   There is no Savior of the Season waiting to suit up for the Olde Towne Team.   The time has come to call 2014 the dreaded "Rebuilding" or "bridge" year. 

   Ben Cherington and the front office made some mistakes in the offseason.   They brought a reputed clubhouse pariah aboard in AJ Pierzynski.   They rolled too many dice (Sizemore, Jackie Bradley, Jr and to some extent, Victorino, with his injury history) in the outfield without a reliable backup plan.  John Farrell has made some mistakes as well, such as over-relying on Jonny Gomes, even against righties, to the detriment of Daniel Nava.  Nava struggled to start the year, but he's shown signs of regaining his stroke.  That's not enough to ignite a moribund offense, but he shouldn't be disregarded against right-handed pitchers in favor of Gomes, who is miserable against northpaws.

    As wrong as the offense has gone this season, save for one Brock Holt, some things have gone right with the pitching.  Heading into last night's game, the Red Sox were ranked third in the league in ERA.   Save for a few blowouts that happen to all teams, starting pitching has been a strength for the Red Sox, especially when Brandon Workman and Rubby De La Rosa were in the rotation instead of Felix Doubront and Clay Buchholz.   Burke Badenhop has proved a valuable reliever and Koji, except for his recent struggles with the long ball, has been his usual dominant self.   Lester and Lackey have been very solid at the top of the rotation (save for Lackey getting shelled last night).  Peavy is clearly on the downside, but while Workman and De La Rosa were pitching every five days, he was the only weak link in the rotation.   The young pitching is something to build on for 2015. 

     Jon Lester has his shortcomings (his hot temper with the umpires being one of them), but unless the Red Sox pony up for the likes of Max Scherzer, they are well-advised to re-sign Lester to hold down the top spot in the rotation.   Peavy will be off the books and Doubront is running out of chances with this team.   Who knows how Buchholz will perform, giving the wild variations he is prone to?   Lackey is on the books for the league minimum next year, which could make him trade bait if the Red Sox aren't planning on extending him.   Therefore, several rotation spots could be up for grabs for 2015.   De La Rosa and Workman are at the head of the line for those spots, followed by Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo, and Matt Barnes.

      What can the Red Sox do to improve the offense for 2015?   The outfield is the place to start.  If Bradley cannot make the necessary adjustments for hitting consistently at the major league level, then the best candidate for center field is Mookie Betts (provided he can make those adjustments when he comes up).   Victorino has been unable to stay healthy, so right field may be an area of need as well.   The Sox sorely need a power hitter who can hit, at the very least .260 and 25 HR on the season.   The farm doesn't have much in the way of a power-hitting outfielder, so it's up to Cherington to find that kind of bat through a trade or free agency.  

     The left side of the infield also needs to be worked out.   Holt, as great as he's been this year, is best used as a super utility player in the Ben Zobrist mold.   Middlebrooks has power, but can't hit for a decent average.  Cecchini, at least at AAA, can hit for average, but is not known for power.   They need to decide of Bogaerts is their third baseman or shortsop.   If he's ticketed for third, then Cecchini is a trade chip.  Middlebrooks, if he can get it together at the plate, could be moved to the outfield. 

      Now for behind the plate.   The sooner the Red Sox get rid of Pierzynski, the better.   He could be having a Bobby V-like effect on the team.   Christian Vazquez looks to be an excellent defender with a highly questionable bat (Hello, Jackie Bradley Jr!).   Blake Swihart has a more well-rounded skill set, but may not be ready by the beginning of the 2015 season.  

      Once the front office rids itself of the delusion that the Red Sox can contend this year, they can think about being sellers at the deadline and seeing what the likes of Betts, Cecchini, and Vazquez
can do for the team going forward.   There are too many holes to fix by being buyers at the deadline.   The rest of the season is going to be more of the same depressing, frustrating grind, but if they can win (or at least contend for) a World Series in 2015 like they did last year after a miserable 2012, it will be worth it.  

The Fault(s) in Our Sox

    There's no denying that the 2014 Red Sox are faulty!   The faults can be listed as anyone but Brock Holt, Brandon Workman, John Lackey, Rubby De La Rosa, Koji Uehara (recent struggles notwithstanding), Burke Badenhop, and, when he's not engaging in umpire-directed histrionics, Jon Lester.  That's basically 4/5 of the starting rotation (as it should be, sans Doubront and Buchholz), two bullpen guys, and all of one member of the starting lineup.  Seven players out of 25. The rest of the team, fuggedaboudit!  

      The Red Sox stand at 34-41.  Even in Bobby V-tainted 2012 they were in better shape than this in late June.  They are showing no signs of digging out of their hole, not with their bats so inept they would struggle to hit minor-league pitching.   Their own pitching is the only thing keeping them from having the worst record in baseball.   Workman and De La Rosa are proving themselves worthy of staying in the rotation.   Only Jake Peavy's performance opens a door for Buchholz or Doubront, the poster boys of inconsistency.   One could argue that Allen Webster or Anthony Ranaudo deserves a shot instead.  

       The pitching logjam is the least of the Red Sox' worries in their woeful attempt to defend their title.  They need bats, like, last month!   Aside from Holt, the rest of the lineup is nauseatingly bad.   Bogaerts and Bradley are wilting under the pressure of being the "Next Big Thing" at their respective positions.   Drew is covered in lack-of-Spring-Training rust.   Pierzynski is a GIDP machine.   Papi and Pedey are underperforming drastically.  Nava keeps getting benched for Farrell's binky Jonny Gomes so it's hard for him to get traction at the plate.   Napoli is still recovering from about 15 different injuries.   They are wretched with RISP and ground into double-plays like it's going out of style.   As a result, the pitchers are constantly pitching high-stress innings, which will make continued success going forward an iffy proposition. 

      Unless they get help in short order, the losing will continue.   By the time the trade deadline rolls around, it will be far too late to make improvements.   Sadly, they may have too many holes in their lineup to fix.  How far does one have to go back to find a Red Sox team as offensively inept as this one? 

Play Better, I'm Giving Up On You

With apologies to A Great Big World...  

  Play Better: A Plea to the 2014 Red Sox  (to the tune of “Say Something”)

Play better I’m giving up on you

I am getting so depressed by you

As you keep losing ball ga-a-ames

Play better I’m giving up on you. 

And you are the reigning world champs

Has it gone to your heads?

‘Cuz you’re playing like chumps. 

And you rose up from worst to first

Now you’re bumbling around

And you keep getting hurt.

Play better I’m giving up on you

I’m sorry but I cannot stomach you

With such a thin starting lineup

Play better I’m giving up on you.

And you, you swing and you miss

Bases loaded with one out

Ground into a double play

Play better I’m giving up on you

And I’m sorry but I cannot stomach you

The outfield is the worst of a-all. 

Play better I’m giving up on you. 

Play better I’m giving up on you.

Play better…

Birth of A Win Streak

      Something beautiful happened on Memorial Day Monday.   The Red Sox woke up from their coma and remembered that they are the defending World Series champions and that they were capable of winning baseball games!  They put their catastrophic 10-game losing streak behind them and started a much more pleasant streak at the expense of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves.    The beginnings of their emergence from the darkness were like anyone awakening after a long slumber, disoriented and confused (courtesy of a patented 2014 Clay Buchholz performance) but they came back from the 5-run hole to defeat the Braves 8-6.  

       Riding some momentum for what looked like the first time this season, they rode a solid, if unspectacular Lester start and a 4-run 7th inning to a second victory.   Coming home to Fenway after two games that were encouragingly reminiscent of the 2013 team, they gave John Lackey 3 runs more than he needed after shutting out the Braves over 6.1 innings with 9 Ks.   It was their first shutout of the season.  Their winning streak now stands at 3 games, their longest so far in 2014.  

       They have a chance to sweep the Braves tomorrow night and extend their winning streak to 4.   However, with Jake Peavy on the mound, that might be a tall order.   Still, if the Red Sox are going anywhere this season, they will need to dig out of the hole created by the 10-game losing streak  sooner rather than later.   These past three games have been a ray of hope, but there is much work to be done to get back into the division race.    For that to happen, the back of the rotation needs to start pulling its weight and the offense needs to avoid any more prolonged slumps.  

      For the record, I am not expecting the Sox to repeat as World Series champions.   At this point in the season given what has happened, my expectations for them are simply to contend for a playoff spot and play relevant games in September.   If they turn things around in June, I would like to see them make a trade or two at the deadline to upgrade their starting rotation and/or the outfield.  

     

Blind Squirrel Theory and other Red Sox ramblings

 The 2014 Red Sox, determined as ever to erase the memory of the magical 2013 season, are into the double digits in their losing streak, making even the Bobby V disaster of 2012 look less atrocious by comparison.   Right now it looks like they will never win another game, having seemingly plumb forgot how to win baseball games.   But will they really end up with a 20-142 record?   Even the worst teams haven't "accomplished" that over a 162 game series.   The infamous 1962 Mets won 40 games. 

  This begs the question, when will the 2014 Boston Blind Squirrels find their first acorn since May 14?   How many more acorns will they find before the season is out?  20?  30?  Will they win more games than the Houston Astros?    What does the 2015 draft class look like? 

  The last time the Red Sox dropped 10 in a row was in 1994.   20 years ago.   The season that began in the spring of my senior year in high school.  That season was put out of its misery by a player's strike in August of that year.  I don't see the Sox getting any sort of reprieve this season.  Stephen Drew alone is not going to fix all that ails this team. 

  What does ail this team?   Let's make a list:

  1.  Complacency.   I won't go as far as to say that winning it all last year was a bad thing for the Red Sox.   Obviously, winning a World Series is never, ever a bad thing.   However, the drive and hunger that seemed to galvanize the team last year is nowhere to be found this year.   Not all of this is on the players.   The front office shares a considerable part of the blame, relying on magical/wishful  thinking when putting together the 2014 team instead of shoring up areas of need (the outfield being the area of greatest need). 

2.  Injuries.  Shane Victorino being a walking DL doesn't help, given the lack of defensive prowess of the rest of the outfield not named Jackie Bradley Jr.   Fellow walking DL Mike Napoli is aching pretty much everywhere.   Middlebrooks is no paragon of health either.   However, you can't give the Red Sox a complete pass on injuries, as there are several teams in the league far more decimated such as the Texas Rangers and the team that just swept them, the Tampa Bay Rays.   The Rays got helped out of the basement by simply showing up to play the Red Sox.   The Rangers have their head above water despite losing Prince Fielder, Jurickson Profar, a bunch of pitchers, and I'm probably leaving out a few of the Texas walking wounded. 

 3.  Flattened Offense.   The 2013 Red Sox were the most prolific run-producers in all of baseball last year.   Even the 2012 Red Sox were more capable of the bat (well, until the post-Big Trade lineup in late August through September).  The 2014 Red Sox have given up on the running game after failing so miserably at it so far this season.   Jacoby Ellsbury's absence is hurting them tremendously.   Should they have signed them to a megadeal like the Yankees did?   The answer is less clear now than it was before the season.  He is a home-grown talent, but he missed two of the past three seasons due to injury.  Still, his presence as a base-stealing leadoff hitter made the entire lineup better.   The 2014 Red Sox are finding out just how hard it is to replace his skill set at the top of the lineup.   Without the running game, the pitcher can focus all of his attention on the hitter, making it all the easier to get him out. 

 4.  Volatile Starting Pitching.   Wouldn't Masahiro Tanaka look much nicer in a Red Sox uniform than those stupid pinstripes?   With Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront and Clay Buchholz actually making me miss Ryan Dempster, the Red Sox starting rotation, aside from Jon Lester and John Lackey are a nuclear meltdown waiting to happen 3 out of 5 games.   Even Lester and Lackey haven't been able to stop the bleeding during this 10 game nosedive. 

5.  Swiss Cheese Defense.   This metaphor is actually a rather unfair one.  Unfair to Swiss cheese, that is;  I really like the stuff.   The left side of the infield is fair game for line drives, grounders, tractor-trailers and possibly even mobile homes.   In the absence of Victorino, anything out of Bradley's reach is fair game as well.   Not to mention behind the plate.   Bad defense makes good pitching even more difficult. 

6.  An F in Chemistry.   With Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamachhia and Drew apparently went the team's inspiring chemistry that helped fuel their championship run.   Drew's on his way back, but the other two aren't appearing in the home dugout at Fenway anymore.   Salty's successor in particular was a head-scratching move by the front office.  Two aging catchers behind the plate is just asking for trouble.   Particularly when one of them comes with the reputation preceding  A.J. Pierzynski.   Besides making Lester look like his 2012 self, leading to David Ross starting most of the games he pitches, he just doesn't seem to fit well with this clubhouse.   That and he tends to end many a rally by grounding into a double play. 

7.  No R.O.Y. Candidates Here.   While Middlebrooks has too much service time to be called a rookie, Xander Bogaerts and Bradley are most definitely rooks.   Middlebrooks is proving that his 2012 success (as one of the few bright spots from that season) was a case of sample size.  Bradley is still lost at the plate against major league pitching.  Only his glove keeps him from being sent back to AAA.  Bogaerts is the most promising, but he has struggled too.  His struggles are primarily on the defensive end and, combined with the struggles of Middlebrooks at the plate, prompted the Sox to resign Drew.   Bogaerts hasn't been the dynamic force with the bat yet, but he's putting up a passable average for a rookie, despite his struggles with RISP. 

 8.  Lineup Instability.   This plagued the Sox in 2012 under Bobby V as well.  Injuries have forced some changes, but John Farrell's tendency to sit two healthy starters at once is frustrating and it puts undue pressure on the rest of the lineup.  

 9.  Cut Down to Size(more).   Spring Training performances are almost always a mirage.  In Spring 2013 it was Jackie Bradley, Jr.  In Spring 2014 it was Grady Sizemore.   Shortly after real baseball started, the clock struck midnight on Sizemore.   His time away from major league competition has really started to show and he's performing below replacement level. 

10.  The Red Sox' Performance is Bipolar.   From September 2011 through this current 10-game losing streak, the Red Sox have been an extremely all-or-nothing team.  From the last month of 2011 through the entire 2012 season, their performance resembled depression.   At the start of the 2013 season, the depression had shifted to mania and remained there for the entire championship run.   The thrill was gone once the 2014 season began.  General malaise has turned into a downward spiral that could doom their season if it continues any longer. 


   There you have it.   One issue for every loss in this streak.   Please don't make me think of a #11, Red Sox.   Dig deep and find ways to win for a change.  

Free Fallin'

     What a difference a year makes!  We could say that last season with a smile on our face, but this season we say the same thing, minus the cheerful disposition.   The 2014 Red Sox have lost 7 straight, have been swept in back-to-back series, and gone winless on the homestand.   Deja 2012, anyone?   The clock has struck midnight and Cinderella's golden coach has pumpkined.   Stephen Drew rejoining the team is a step in the right direction, but is it enough to pull them out of the quicksand?   

       Right now, the Red Sox are dredging up September 2011 and much of 2012 on a nightly basis.  No pitching.  No hitting.  No fielding.   The Grady Train has derailed, JBJ is looking like a highly-touted prospect gone the way of Lars Anderson and Ryan Lavarnway.   Xander is none too happy about moving from shortstop to third base.   Middlebrooks is Middlebroken.  Buchholz is buckling under.   Felix is a victim of a car door.  Peavy's peripheral chickens have come to roost.  Lackey's up and down like a yo-yo.  Even Lester got lit up like a Christmas tree.   Where's a Bobby V. Blame Pie when you need it?   Oh, I forgot, the expiration date on that pie was in early October of 2012.  

        If they're looking to out-Astro the Astros or collect another protected draft pick, they're doing a bang-up job.   However, do they really want to sandwich the World Championship season with two historically atrocious ones?   Are the Red Sox that bipolar?   Or do they only plan on showing up in odd-numbered years?   Who knows, but if they don't right the ship soon, it's going to be a long, miserable summer for Red Sox Nation. 

       

The Rules Of The Game by the 2014 Boston Red Sox

     Notice I don't title this post "How to Play Baseball, by the 2014 Boston Red Sox".   That's because this bunch isn't playing baseball.  They've invented their own game and it's so bizarre and convoluted that I can't even come up with a name for this odd mutation of the traditional bat and ball game played on a diamond shape field. 

    Rule 1:  The guy throwing the ball and the guys behind him in the field are on opposite teams.   The fielders must endeavor to keep the ball from reaching the white square bag where the runner, their teammate, is headed.   This is called the Keep-Away Principle. 

   Rule 2:  If a ball is hit in the air, the fielders must allow it to drop to the ground so that their teammates can run around the diamond and touch as many white square bags as possible.   This is the Gravity Rule

  Rule 3:  When there are men on base, the batter has several choices.  He can:
      a) swing at balls thrown his way that he cannot reach with his bat
      b) watch three balls thrown his way sail right over the white pentagonal plate
      c) if he should inadvertently make contact with the ball, it's okay as long as one of his teammates in the field can catch it or pick it up and throw it to the white square bag to his right before his foot touches said bag.   Proceed to bag as slowly as possible. 

  Rule 4:  He who stands on a mound of dirt and throws the ball to the guy standing next to the white pentagonal plate must either throw it directly over the plate or so far away from it that the guy with the bat cannot reach it.  

  Rule 5:  Points are scored by the number of dropped balls, men left in the vicinity of the white bags after three outs are made, and most balls thrown far away from the pentagonal plate.  If the guy with the bat hits it out of the yard, the guy on this hill gets bonus points.  

 Got it?   Now go put on some uniforms and try to figure out who's on whose team.  Looks of confusion are worth 5 points apiece.  Hands thrown up in the air in abject frustration are worth 10.   Play...something! 

Was the 2013 Season a Fluke?

   With the 2014 Red Sox picking up where they left off in 2012, as if 2013 never happened, it begs  the question:  was that World Championship season a mere fluke?   The Red Sox last year were a talented group, but they weren't the most talented of all 30 teams in MLB.   They won with some luck, career years from the likes of Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz before his injury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and a defense up the middle that included Stephen Drew, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury.   They had a lot of team chemistry for sure, and a will to win that had not been seen in previous years, but all of that has disappeared with the change of the calendar year.

     Is the player turnover from last season to this one responsible for the return to futility?   Did all the mojo leave with Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia?   Or did Bobby V-style bad karma come with the likes of AJ Pierzynski, Edward Mujica, Grady Sizemore, Burke Badenhop and Chris Capuano.   Capuano is certainly not part of the problem and Sizemore, while he fooled the Sox into thinking he could be an impact player with a blazing Spring Training, isn't as big of a problem as Pierzynski, Mujica and Badenhop have been.   Pierzynski, in particular, had an unsavory reputation precede him.   Mujica and Badenhop have just been ineffective.  

      What of the young players that were supposed to make this season at lea st somewhat fun to watch?   It seems Jackie Bradley Jr and Xander Bogaerts have been dragged down with the rest of the team.   Bogaerts, in particular, is off to a disappointing start after being such a dynamic force in the playoffs and having a very solid Spring Training.   His fielding has been woeful and his approach at the plate has taken a step back (Pierzynski School of Plate Discipline, perhaps?).  

      Let's be clear on one thing:  I am not expecting the Red Sox to win a World Series every year.  I'm not expecting them to repeat this year.   I do, however, want them to at least be competitive, and by that I don't mean competing with the Astros for the top draft pick.   I want to see Bogaerts and Bradley start to live up to their potential and stop being dragged down into the morass of malaise that has ensnared the rest of the team.   It consumed the offense and defense first and now it's pulled the starting pitching right down with it.   Lackey, Buchholz and Lester have all taken turns playing pinata in the last four games, with the only reprieve being a solid start from Doubront.  

       Another depressing reminder of 2012 is this team's atrocious play at home.   So far, the last place team in the AL East has gone 4-7 at Fenway.   So much for home field advantage!   Like 2012, the 2014 Red Sox are one step forward, two steps back.   One great year, sandwiched between what's looking like two miserable ones.   It may still be early, but this isn't Spring Training.  Unless MLB has changed the rules, April games count in the standings as much as games in September and the deeper the hole the Red Sox dig early in the season, the harder it is going to be to crawl out.   Get your shit together, Red Sox, and get it together in a hurry.   What's the point of going worst to first if you're going right back down to worst again?