Unsolved Mysteries: Red Sox Edition

Tonight on Unsolved Mysteries, a Major League baseball team struggles to win more games than it loses, mysteriously unable to rise over the .500 mark despite multiple attempts.   An high-priced all-star slugger whose power has vanished as his salary has exponentially increased.   A starting rotation with a paralyzing fear of the strike zone.   Is a supernatural force causing this team to lose an inordinate amount of players to injuries?   The 2012 Red Sox are full of mysteries that have their fan base scratching their heads.    

 What is it that keeps this team from surpassing the .500 mark this late in the season.   As of today, May 26, they stand in last place in their division with a 22-23 record, yet with one of the largest payrolls and the highest ticket prices in the game  That's a lot of money for mediocrity.   They have reached .500 four times so far this season and each time, they have lost the game that would have given them a winning record.   Are they doomed to finishing at best 81-81?    There is a lot of season left to go, but this team leaves us with more questions than answers. 

  What of the long-coveted Adrian Gonzalez, who cost the team in both prospects to obtain him in a trade from the San Diego Padres and money in signing him to an extension?    He had offseason shoulder surgery before the 2011 season.   The first half of 2011, he was hitting home runs, though not quite as many as projected, and was leading all of baseball in RBI.   However, he chose to participate in the Home Run Derby in July as part of the All-Star Game festivities and his power has been all but nonexistent since.   Was participating in an exhibition contest with no bearing on the team's standings and coming off of shoulder surgery the wisest thing to do?   Gonzalez will deny the impact of the Derby eight ways from Sunday, but something is behind the loss of power in a player who hit 40 homers while playing in the cavernous Petco Park for 81 games a year.   Gonzalez still brings Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base, but he was acquired to be a middle-of-the-order hitter and hitters who hit 3rd or 4th in the lineup are supposed to hit for power and are paid accordingly.   

  The starting rotation has been a bugaboo for the Red Sox for several years now.   Last season, the biggest problem was John Lackey, who was pitching with an elbow that needed Tommy John surgery and finished with an ERA over 6, the worst in the Majors.   So far this season, Clay Buchholz's numbers make Lackey's 2011 look good in comparison.  Prior to the season, I didn't think that was possible!    But Buchholz is not the only problem this rotation has.    It appears they've all been coached --or brainwashed--by Daisuke Matsuzaka to avoid the strike zone at all costs.   Giving up walks to hitters with sub-Mendoza line batting averages?   Why not let a .170 hitter try and put the ball in play.   There's an 83% chance he'll make an out.   If you grant him a base on balls, there's a 100% chance he'll reach base.   Even the best hitters make outs nearly 70% of the time.   The Red Sox starters need to challenge the hitters with their best stuff and let their teammates make the plays behind them.   Home runs are going to happen, but it's better to give one up with no one on base than with the bases filled with men who were given free passes.   

Finally, what is behind the Red Sox being inundated with far more than their fair share of injuries for the third year in a row?    Even an overhaul of the team medical staff failed to stem the tide of players filling up the DL.    The outfield has been particularly decimated.   Carl Crawford got injured trying to rehab from an injury.   Jacoby Ellsbury, in an eerie flashback to his lost 2010 season, got hurt in the first week of this season.  In another 2010 flashback, Cody Ross broke his navicular bone, a la Dustin Pedroia.   Then, Ryan Sweeney dives to make a spectacular catch and ends up with a concussion.   If that wasn't enough, Darnell McDonald strained his oblique and Ryan Kalish has been MIA with various injuries since, you guessed it, 2010!   Last year, it was the pitchers who couldn't stay healthy.  Lackey, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Buchholz all spent time on the DL.   For Matsuzaka and Buchholz, the injuries were season-ending.    Is the "dirty water" of Boston to blame?   Or is it some supernatural hoodoo voodoo force that makes Red Sox players drop like flies?   It's all so...mysterious.  

The Navicular Bone Strikes Again!

Remember that obscure bone in the foot that I never knew existed until 2010, when it mercilessly truncated the season of one Dustin Pedroia?   It's baaaack and this time the victim is Cody Ross.   Ross fractured his navicular bone fouling a ball off his foot over the weekend in Philly, just like Pedey did that fateful game in San Fran.   Whether it will end his season, which looked promising from the HR and RBI standpoint, remains to be seen, but he will miss significant time and join the growing list of Outfielders with Owwies.   Ross will hit the DL tomorrow when Youk rejoins the team.   Rumor has it that Youk's return doesn't necessarily mean Middlebrooks, or "Brooksie" as Bobby V calls him, gets Paw Soxed.   With Ross's power bat out of the lineup, the Sox can ill afford to lose Middlebrooks, who appears to be adjusting to the pitchers adjusting to him (3-for-4 tonight against the O's).  

  So, what will the Red Sox do with a surplus of infielders and a shortage of outfielders?   Will Gonzo see more right field than just during interleague games?   Will they try again with Youk in the outfield?   How about Middlebrooks?   Or will they try to trade Youk for outfield help.   Nava has been making the most of his playing time in left field, but he is not a long-term solution, as we saw in 2010.   

  The Red Sox and O's have been in a bit of a bizarro situation, given their history in the past few years.   In 2009, the Red Sox won all but 2 of their games against the Baltimore birdies and were near the top of their division.   From the end of 2011 and into 2012, the tables have turned and now it's the O's on top and the Sox on the bottom.   Tonight, however, the Sox emerged victorious, beating the O's 8-6.   Oddly enough, as bad as Buchholz pitches (and he's made last year's Lackey look not half bad in comparison), the Sox seem to put on their hitting shoes whenever he's on the mound.   Clay couldn't claim the win tonight however.   Andrew Miller, who may have found his niche in the bullpen (knock on wood), grabbed the W instead, and on his birthday, to boot.   Now, the Sox and Yankees are tied, both with .500 records of 21-21.   The epic rivalry has taken a back seat so far this season.   The Phillies, Tigers, and Angels have also been struggling.   The only "usual suspects" in the league who are playing to expectations are the Rays and the Rangers.   This being May, a lot can change, even by the All-Star break, but so far around baseball it's been a season of "expect the unexpected".   

One Good Turn

As much as I've ripped the Red Sox when they've played like Charlie Brown's baseball team (you know, the one that loses games by such impossible scores as 200-0), I have to give credit where credit is due.   The beleaguered starting rotation, beginning last Friday with Clay Buchholz, has put together a string of outings which range from solid (Buchholz) to very strong (Doubront and Bard) to stellar (Lester and Beckett).    Not coincidentally, the Sox have won all 5 of those games:  3 (out of 4) against the Indians and 2 against the Mariners.   It makes the offense's job a lot easier when the starters can go deep into games and keep runs off the board.   Ergo, you get the productive at-bats and timely hitting that too often went missing when the offense was trying to play catch-up as the pitchers handed out runs like Halloween candy.   

 I'm far from the first person to say that winning baseball games starts with the pitching, particularly the starters, and I certainly won't be the last.  At the risk of stating the obvious, pitchers who work economically, attacking the strike zone and keeping the base runners to a minimum can pitch deeper into games and limit bullpen exposure.    In the meantime, the offense can relax and put together quality at-bats instead of swinging anxiously at first pitches and making easy outs.   It doesn't always work that way; a pitcher can be absolutely dealing, but the offense can't manage to push across a run.   Conversely, the bats can bail out a pitcher who can't seem to hold onto a lead.    However, it's hard to win many games with a glacial offense or a relentless game of catch-up.   Wins come more consistently when an offense like that of the Red Sox can do its job without having to worry about their lead perpetually evaporating.    

 All that said, it's heartening to see all 5 starters step up and put together a string of starts that make us think "maybe this rotation isn't so bad after all."   Are they hearing the footsteps of one Daisuke Matsuzaka?   Starting tomorrow, the Sox have a rather challenging roadie through St. Pete, Philly, and Baltimore (given the way the O's are playing so far this year and what they did to the Sox at Fenway, they're not going to be the cakewalk they used to be).    Philly is off to a rough start this season, but we can only pray the Sox don't have to face Cole Hamels.   This trip is an excellent opportunity for the rotation to continue the run of success they started on the home stand, to prove it wasn't a fluke.  Aren't we glad that rumors of their bizarre allergy to playing at Fenway were greatly exaggerated?     

 

Trying For Top 2013 Draft Pick?

      The ever-infuriating and increasingly hopeless 2012 Red Sox find new ways to lose each night.   Sure, they'll sprinkle in an 11-run rout and a couple of short winning streaks here and there, but those are aberrations.   The team is riddled with flaws, from the horrendous hurling of the Putrid Pitching Posse (which encompasses pretty much the whole staff), to the feast-or-famine, no-clutch offense, to the AAA-level outfield defense (except for Sweeney), to the never-ending parade of injuries, to the deer-in-the-headlights rookie GM, all the way up to the out-of-touch ownership group.   Who's in the mood for celebrating the 100th anniversary at Fenway when the team seems to be allergic to playing there?    Then again, the team is allergic to winning, period.   

       At this point, there is little to do to turn this miserable season around except to hope certain players start to perform to expectations based on their talent level and past performance.   Realistically, they've had more than a month to get their act together and show no signs of doing so in the near future.   If they ever do start earning their massive paychecks, it will likely be too late as they will have fallen too far behind.   

      Why will they have fallen so far behind?  There is a malaise about this team that has been building for several years and it comes straight from the top.   After winning 2 World Series in a 4-year span, ownership appears to have gotten complacent and maybe even bored.   They were content with those two titles and adding to the collection, to them, just wasn't necessary.   In the meantime, teams like the Rangers, the Rays, and the Tigers, and more recently, the Blue Jays and Orioles snuck up and passed the Red Sox.   Their arch-rival Yankees kept improving as well.   Think of a car plodding along at about 20 miles under the speed limit.   Of course the cars behind it are going to change lanes, speed up, and pass that slowpoke.   It should be no mystery which teams are the passing cars and which team is the snail clogging up traffic.  

        While the Red Sox were idling, collecting albatross contracts for players who ended up underperforming, getting injured, or both.  Is it the "Dirty Water"?    Is it the antiquated ballpark?   Does the sheer passion of the fans scare some players?   After all, passion can go both ways.   In a baseball-obsessed city like Boston, you're either a hero or a bum.   There's very little middle ground.   However, Philly and New York are no easy cities to play in either.   Is there something lurking in the Red Sox clubhouse at Fenway that induces baseball amnesia?    

       How much responsibility does Bobby V have in motivating his team to play their best ball?    I was all for his hiring and thought he could change the clubhouse culture, but maybe he's been out of the dugout too long, especially the major-league dugout.    He can't hit, pitch, or play defense for his players and has to play the hand he has been dealt, but some of his pitching and lineup decisions have been disappointing.   His hook might even be slower than Tito's (and that's saying a lot!).    Until last night, he would leave McDonald in to face righty relievers, leaving the much better-hitting and fielding Sweeney on the bench.   

       All the blame can't be placed on the manager, however.   Ben "overmatched rookie" Cherington put this team together, while limited in budget thanks to an ocean of sunk costs courtesy of Theo Epstein.    The players could use a seminar or two on teamwork and the pitchers need to stop with the constant nibbling and develop an out pitch.   I've long since lost count of the number of 0-2 counts that have gone full, then resulted in either walk or a hit.   If I'm a hitting coach on the opposing team, I'm telling my hitters to wait the Boston pitchers out.   Don't be afraid to get in an 0-2 hole because you have a good chance of working the count full, fouling off some pitches, and driving the starter's pitch count up early.  For those who are awaiting Dice-K's return, he's been on this team this whole time, taking all 5 turns in the rotation.    

        In all honesty, I don't see this team coming close to making the playoffs this year.   Call it rebuilding, a "bridge year" or whatever, but for one of the highest payrolls in the game, the 2012 Red Sox are the worst team that money can buy.