No, Lester hasn't been traded yet, but it seems all but inevitable now. Rumors are circulating about Lackey being traded as well. Imagine a rotation led by Clay Buchholz. Sad and scary times indeed! The offense is doing their usual sputtering thing, even though Xander is showing signs of improvement at the plate, if not in the field. On the other hand, JBJ seems to have undone whatever progress he had made. The Red Sox were annihilated by the Blue Jays yet again and have dug themselves back to 12 games under .500. They are a worse team this year than they were in the 93-loss 2012, led by Bobby Valentine.
If they lose 40 of the 54 games remaining, they will lose 100 games for the first time in nearly 50 years. After winning a World Series, however improbable and fluky that win was, following it up with a 100 loss season is hard to fathom. It's about as Jekyll and Hyde as it comes. The current ownership may have seen three World Championships in its tenure, but it has also seen the team go from worst to first back down to worst again (and, in all likelihood, even worse than the first "worst".). The trade deadline may very well be a fire sale leading to a long rebuilding process. They ownership may spin a tale about quick rebuilding, but when you sell away your top pitcher, a homegrown guy at that, with no ready replacement, no "Plan B", the quick rebuild story is BS. Sell off Lackey too? Is the plan "Wait 'til 2020"? Or is there a plan at all?
Winning the World Series last year was a great thing, but it raised expectations. As for me, I wasn't expecting a repeat. I was, however, expecting them to at least be competitive, or even somewhat respectable. But this? I was not expecting this, but maybe I should have been. After all, the front office did some significant subtraction from the team what won it all without adding much to offset what they took away. What kind of message did that send the team? "Sorry, but we're not going to help you this year. You're on your own. Good luck with that."?
What the Red Sox are putting out on the field now is disheartening, depressing, and a far cry from just a short year ago. With the moves the front office seems to want to make, expect more of the same in the years to come. I fail to see how drifting about aimlessly in the bottom of the MLB barrel will help the development of the prospects on which the Red Sox are banking so heavily.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Just Pay Him Already!
If you heard the "ka-chings" that went off after every strikeout, every scoreless inning of Jon Lester's outing against the Royals today, that was the southpaw's price tag getting higher. Lester blanked Kansas City over 8 frames, earning his tenth win and the first Red Sox sweep of an opponent since Big Papi was in Little League. In one corner is Jon Lester, his 2.50 ERA, his history of post-season dominance, and his 200-inning durability. In the other corner, Ben Cherington and a pathologically gun-shy front office who would sooner call Brian Cashman up with Lester's jersey size than give him a long-term, big-money contract extension. Yes, the Carl Crawford mega-contract bombed. Yes, Adrian Gonzalez left his power on the West Coast. No, neither Gonzalez nor Crawford were brought up in the Red Sox system and neither knew beforehand what it was like to play in a baseball and media-crazed city like Boston.
Taking a gamble on Lester would be taking a gamble on a known entity as far as how well he could pitch in the AL East and handle playing in Boston, pitching at a hitter's park like Fenway. Sure he had a crappy 2012 and he gets a little agitated when calls don't go his way, but he's battle-tested in one of the toughest markets in MLB. All free-agent pitchers of his talent level and career pedigree are going to be paid up the wazoo. If the Red Sox think they can replace Lester by a trade or another free agent, they would be taking a bigger risk than extending him even if the "replacement" is on a shorter deal. Why? It's unknown how said "replacement" will respond to pitching in conditions that Lester has pitched in for the past seven years.
Replacing Lester from within the farm has its own risks, the greatest of which is the unfair pressure he would inevitably be under to be the new ace of the staff. None of the current pitchers in the rotation are front-line material. Lackey, if he returns, will be 36 and he has battled some inconsistency of late. Buchholz has been wildly inconsistent and has trouble staying healthy. Peavy is gone, likely at the trade deadline, and Workman and De La Rosa project as back-of-the-rotation guys. Even top pitching prospect Henry Owens is projected to be a #2 or #3 at best and he has yet to pitch in the major leagues.
If the Red Sox want to contend next year, they need to sign Lester. As Lester ages, maybe one of the youngsters will outperform his projection and become an ace, but asking him to be #1 from the moment he suits up for his Red Sox debut is not the way to go. They have enough young players making league minimum that they can afford to sign Lester to the kind of deal he deserves. The only question is, will they pony up and do it or go small market and try to sell a multi-year rebuilding process with the highest ticket prices in baseball.
Taking a gamble on Lester would be taking a gamble on a known entity as far as how well he could pitch in the AL East and handle playing in Boston, pitching at a hitter's park like Fenway. Sure he had a crappy 2012 and he gets a little agitated when calls don't go his way, but he's battle-tested in one of the toughest markets in MLB. All free-agent pitchers of his talent level and career pedigree are going to be paid up the wazoo. If the Red Sox think they can replace Lester by a trade or another free agent, they would be taking a bigger risk than extending him even if the "replacement" is on a shorter deal. Why? It's unknown how said "replacement" will respond to pitching in conditions that Lester has pitched in for the past seven years.
Replacing Lester from within the farm has its own risks, the greatest of which is the unfair pressure he would inevitably be under to be the new ace of the staff. None of the current pitchers in the rotation are front-line material. Lackey, if he returns, will be 36 and he has battled some inconsistency of late. Buchholz has been wildly inconsistent and has trouble staying healthy. Peavy is gone, likely at the trade deadline, and Workman and De La Rosa project as back-of-the-rotation guys. Even top pitching prospect Henry Owens is projected to be a #2 or #3 at best and he has yet to pitch in the major leagues.
If the Red Sox want to contend next year, they need to sign Lester. As Lester ages, maybe one of the youngsters will outperform his projection and become an ace, but asking him to be #1 from the moment he suits up for his Red Sox debut is not the way to go. They have enough young players making league minimum that they can afford to sign Lester to the kind of deal he deserves. The only question is, will they pony up and do it or go small market and try to sell a multi-year rebuilding process with the highest ticket prices in baseball.
Sunday, July 13, 2014
A Shred of Optimism
To say Red Sox 2014 season has been horrible is a gross understatement. Bad decisions and good ones that didn't work out are both to blame for the hideous hangover season that transformed the Sox from a run-producing machine to a lethargic opportunity-wasting bunch of hopeless hackers. That being said, one of the leaden clouds over this year's team (but certainly not the only one!) has been removed in the DFA-ing of AJ Pierzynski. Replacing the free-swinging, abrasively opinionated veteran backstop is young defensive whiz Christian Vazquez, who was promoted from Pawtucket in time for Wednesday night's walk-off win. Vazquez has impressed so far not only with the glove, as was to be expected, but with the bat as well. Granted, the sample size is minuscule and the competition is either not much better than (White Sox) or worse than (Astros) the Red Sox, but having a guy who can control the opponents' running game is an upgrade even if the offensive spark does not last.
The jettisoning of Pierzynski is a sign that the front office is committed to using 2014 as a proving ground for promising prospects since they are an extreme longshot for contention this year. If they can unload Peavy, who has actually pitched fairly well of late, if lacking in run support to improve his record, they will clear a rotation spot for Rubby De La Rosa or one of the other talented arms biding their time in AAA.
As far as the youngsters currently on the team are concerned, Jackie Bradley, Jr, in particular, is finally starting to put it together at the plate. His Gold-Glove caliber defense in center field has allowed him some time to work on getting his bat up to speed and the results are starting to show. Mookie Betts has seen his hot streak cool down significantly since getting called up to the bigs, but he looks like he's making the necessary adjustments and his speed is something that has been sorely lacking in the Sox lineup since Ells departed for The Dark Side. Xander Bogaerts is slowly, but surely coming out of his deep slump. Brock Holt is still abusing baseballs with not a hair out of place and has played every position but pitcher and catcher.
On the pitching side of things, Brandon Workman has hit a bump in the road since returning from his controversial suspension. He is winless since then and has seen his ERA balloon to 4.13. Rubby De La Rosa struggled a bit in Pawtucket upon being demoted in a roster crunch last month and came up last Wednesday with a so-so outing (5 IP, 3 R). Though not a rookie by any stretch, Clay Buchholz has appreciably improved since coming off the DL. He helped the Sox take an easy 11-0 win over the Astros by pitching a complete-game shutout.
Since Pierzynski was DFA'ed, the Red Sox are 4-1 with two walk-off wins. Granted, the stretch was against the White Sox and the Astros, not the A's and Tigers, but with the depths the Sox had sunk to so far in '14 (ahem, being swept by the Cubs), I'll take that 4-1 stretch no matter who the opponent. The improvements the rookies (among others) have made will, in all likelihood, not get them anywhere close to undoing the damage done to the season so far. However, if they can pick up where they left off once the All-Star Break ends, at least they will be a more fun team to watch.
The jettisoning of Pierzynski is a sign that the front office is committed to using 2014 as a proving ground for promising prospects since they are an extreme longshot for contention this year. If they can unload Peavy, who has actually pitched fairly well of late, if lacking in run support to improve his record, they will clear a rotation spot for Rubby De La Rosa or one of the other talented arms biding their time in AAA.
As far as the youngsters currently on the team are concerned, Jackie Bradley, Jr, in particular, is finally starting to put it together at the plate. His Gold-Glove caliber defense in center field has allowed him some time to work on getting his bat up to speed and the results are starting to show. Mookie Betts has seen his hot streak cool down significantly since getting called up to the bigs, but he looks like he's making the necessary adjustments and his speed is something that has been sorely lacking in the Sox lineup since Ells departed for The Dark Side. Xander Bogaerts is slowly, but surely coming out of his deep slump. Brock Holt is still abusing baseballs with not a hair out of place and has played every position but pitcher and catcher.
On the pitching side of things, Brandon Workman has hit a bump in the road since returning from his controversial suspension. He is winless since then and has seen his ERA balloon to 4.13. Rubby De La Rosa struggled a bit in Pawtucket upon being demoted in a roster crunch last month and came up last Wednesday with a so-so outing (5 IP, 3 R). Though not a rookie by any stretch, Clay Buchholz has appreciably improved since coming off the DL. He helped the Sox take an easy 11-0 win over the Astros by pitching a complete-game shutout.
Since Pierzynski was DFA'ed, the Red Sox are 4-1 with two walk-off wins. Granted, the stretch was against the White Sox and the Astros, not the A's and Tigers, but with the depths the Sox had sunk to so far in '14 (ahem, being swept by the Cubs), I'll take that 4-1 stretch no matter who the opponent. The improvements the rookies (among others) have made will, in all likelihood, not get them anywhere close to undoing the damage done to the season so far. However, if they can pick up where they left off once the All-Star Break ends, at least they will be a more fun team to watch.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Fire Sale: Everything (but Lester) must go!
With the Red Sox firmly entrenched in The Land of Crappy Baseball (to put it mildly), it's become more clear than ever that they should be sellers at the trade deadline. One big exception to the sell, sell, sell mantra is Jon Lester. Jon Lester may not at the very top of the major league pitching pyramid and he has his drawbacks, but he's the best pitcher the Red Sox have at the moment and he is a proven post-season stud. The Red Sox may have a farm full of young pitching, but none of those arms currently projects higher than mid-rotation. Ergo, there is currently nobody to take Lester's place should he depart for free agency in the off-season.
Ben Cherington is a GM who is loath to give out long-term deals to free agents. His strategy may have worked in 2013, but most of the time it reads as small-market strategy that puts a team in perpetual rebuilding mode. The Red Sox are not a small-market team. They can afford to give out large, long-term contracts to the right players. The key is determining who the right players are. I believe that Lester is one of those "right players" and that failing to extend him is as good as fitting him with pinstripes. The Yankee way of relying on aging stars at the expense of developing the farm has its own problems, but a combination of developing young talent and ponying up for the proven veteran is a strategy that should keep a team contending most years.
If the Red Sox don't extend Jon Lester, which would be a huge mistake as far as I'm concerned, they could face a multi-year rebuild that would not go over so well with the fanbase. Some rebuilding is necessary, but waiting three or four years for a new frontline pitcher to establish himself, if that even happens, could mean more seasons just like this one. There are options on the free agent market, but the ones worth paying (i.e. Scherzer) would cost just as much, if not more, than the one who has proven he can handle playing in Boston and pitching in a hitter's park like Fenway.
As far as who the Red Sox can part with, the first to go should be A.J. Pierzynski. The return of the whining and excuse making that characterized the 2012 team under Bobby Valentine suggests that something is rotten in the Red Sox clubhouse. It may not be fair to dump all the blame on Pierzynski, but he came to Boston with a reputation for rubbing his teammates the wrong way. Peavy is next in line and his back-to-back quality starts should help his trade value. Lackey shouldn't be untouchable either. Gomes, Carp, Mujica, Badenhop, Breslow, and even Koji could be shopped. The prospect haul might not be that impressive, but it clears the way for some of the young talent on the farm to get their feet wet at the major league level. Some might not be ready for prime time, but this season is lost anyway. The Red Sox might as well see what they've got in some of those kids.
Ben Cherington is a GM who is loath to give out long-term deals to free agents. His strategy may have worked in 2013, but most of the time it reads as small-market strategy that puts a team in perpetual rebuilding mode. The Red Sox are not a small-market team. They can afford to give out large, long-term contracts to the right players. The key is determining who the right players are. I believe that Lester is one of those "right players" and that failing to extend him is as good as fitting him with pinstripes. The Yankee way of relying on aging stars at the expense of developing the farm has its own problems, but a combination of developing young talent and ponying up for the proven veteran is a strategy that should keep a team contending most years.
If the Red Sox don't extend Jon Lester, which would be a huge mistake as far as I'm concerned, they could face a multi-year rebuild that would not go over so well with the fanbase. Some rebuilding is necessary, but waiting three or four years for a new frontline pitcher to establish himself, if that even happens, could mean more seasons just like this one. There are options on the free agent market, but the ones worth paying (i.e. Scherzer) would cost just as much, if not more, than the one who has proven he can handle playing in Boston and pitching in a hitter's park like Fenway.
As far as who the Red Sox can part with, the first to go should be A.J. Pierzynski. The return of the whining and excuse making that characterized the 2012 team under Bobby Valentine suggests that something is rotten in the Red Sox clubhouse. It may not be fair to dump all the blame on Pierzynski, but he came to Boston with a reputation for rubbing his teammates the wrong way. Peavy is next in line and his back-to-back quality starts should help his trade value. Lackey shouldn't be untouchable either. Gomes, Carp, Mujica, Badenhop, Breslow, and even Koji could be shopped. The prospect haul might not be that impressive, but it clears the way for some of the young talent on the farm to get their feet wet at the major league level. Some might not be ready for prime time, but this season is lost anyway. The Red Sox might as well see what they've got in some of those kids.
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