Bitching About The Pitching

    It's official.  Jon Lester is a Chicago Cub now.  I wish him all the best and if he can bring a championship to the Cubs, the Windy City could very well be renamed Lestertown.  I don't begrudge his decision.  After all, it's not like he signed with the Yankees.   I still respect him and what he did for the Red Sox while he was here, helping them win two World Series.   That being said, I'm sure going to miss him and I sure as hell wish he were the Red Sox' 2015 Opening Day starter.  

    As of now, it's anyone's guess who takes the hill on Opening Day because this rotation has no leader.   Buchholz may be the longest tenured member, but trying to predict which version of him the Red Sox will get in 2015 is a fool's errand.  Someone with such a high ceiling and such a low floor cannot be expected to lead this rotation.   After losing out on Lester, the Sox went out and collected a glut of #3 starters in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson.  Out of the three, I have the highest hopes for Porcello, but he's a #2 at the very most and more conservatively, a #3 on a team that expects to contend for a championship.

   If the 2013 and 2014 World Series taught us anything it is that the team who wins it all has an ace who can end the game for the other team.   For the 2013 Red Sox, that was Jon Lester.   For the 2014 Giants, it was Madison Bumgarner.  Once Bumgarner toed the rubber in Game 7, it was all over for the Royals.   He was the difference in a hard-fought series.  The Royals simply did not have a pitcher that could shut down the opposition like Bumgarner did for the Giants.  Expecting the Red Sox to go from worst to first to worst to first again is hardly realistic, but if you're building a team with championship aspirations, you need that stopper.  It's amazing that the Royals got as far as they did without a Bumgarner-esque pitcher of their own. 

 When the Red Sox picked up both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, two of the best free agent hitters on the market, in late November, it appeared they were ready to go all in for 2015.   Of course, landing Lester was far from a sure thing, especially since they traded him at the deadline.   However, since Lester is no longer an option, I was hoping they would trade for more of a top of the rotation guy and not a set of mid-rotation arms.   Three #3s do not make a #1.   It's good to have depth to avoid absolute disaster on the back end, but putting the burden on a Porcello, a Miley, or a Masterson to lead the rotation is just not fair.   Porcello, at 25 could surprise us all and become a Bumgarner 2.0, but having to adjust to the AL East won't do him any favors.   Miley will have an even bigger adjustment to make, coming from the pitcher's park haven that was the NL West.   Masterson is coming off a truly dreadful season and looks like more of a reliever than a starter.   Joe Kelly is a good, solid #4.  

 With Lester out of the picture, who should they target to lead the rotation? 

  1.  Jordan Zimmermann:  He would be my first choice, providing he doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie Betts and preferably not Bogaerts or Swihart either.   With the Nats planning on competing, it's going to take a blue chip to land Zimm, even if he's a one-year rental. Even though he comes from the NL, he has enough talent to take a chance on him. 

 2.  Johnny Cueto:  Another potential ace coming from the NL who might command too high a prospect haul and comes with an injury history.  However, if he's healthy and doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie, Xander, or Blake, he's worth it.  

3.  Max Scherzer:  This one falls under pipe dream because it will require stupid money.  If they couldn't pony up for their home-grown ace, fat chance they shell out the king's ransom for Scherzer.  
  
4. James Shields:  He's getting long in the tooth and his performance in the World Series was a huge red flag, but he's a veteran presence among youngsters and won't cost as much as Lester or Scherzer and no prospects have to be given up to get him.   He's more of a #2 and his best days might be behind him.  Still, he's durable and for 2015 and maybe 2016 he can be that veteran presence at the front of the rotation.  

5. Cole Hamels:  His numbers against the AL are a huge red flag, especially if the Phillies are commanding the best prospects for him.   The Red Sox don't play enough interleague games to take the chance here. 

6. Doug Fister:  Like Shields, he's more of a #2.  He's also a 1-year rental.  However, he's more capable of leading a rotation than any of the current Red Sox starters. 

     The rest of the offseason is going to be interesting, seeing what else, if anything, the Red Sox do to improve the rotation.   If they stand pat, we're looking at a third or fourth place team.   It's better than last place, but it's not going to make them competitive.