Ah, the reality check! To the rose-colored glasses lot, it's a wet blanket often confused with pessimism. After all, the Red Sox do possess the best record in the American League. Therefore, they must be clicking on all cylinders and cruising right into a playoff spot, right? Not so fast. It's still June and we haven't yet reached the All-Star break. Even if this were late August, however, recent memory, as much as we want to expunge it from our collective consciousness, reminds us that they have to show up for all six months of the regular season in order to secure a postseason berth.
So what's going right with the Red Sox? What has gotten them to this point?
1. Depth, particularly from the bench. With the addition of Jose Iglesias to the 25-man roster, the Red Sox have a deep bench full of guys who can keep the team afloat in the face of injuries. Gomes, Nava and Carp give them plenty of options in the outfield and, for the latter two, first base. Iglesias has made it hard for John Farrell to keep him riding pine, swinging the bat at an improbably good clip while Drew and Middlebrooks continue to struggle to stay over the Mendoza line. As a utility guy, Iggy's a major upgrade over Pedro Ciriaco, who was recently shipped off to the Padres.
2. Depth in the minors. Alfredo "Ace/Crazy Man" Aceves has gradually worked his way back into the good graces of Red Sox Nation by contributing quality starts when he is called upon to replace the frustratingly injured Clay Buchholz. Bullpen arms Alex Wilson and Jose De La Torre have helped out when short starts and extra innings stretch the 'pen out like silly putty. Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster are promising young arms to help out the starting rotation. Top prospect Xander Bogaerts is waiting in the wings should Middlebrooks continue to hit like a blind squirrel.
3. Improved starting pitching. The road has been rockier in the rotation of late, but the Sox are still sporting a much better rotation than the were last year at this time. Dempster and Lackey have, for the most part, kept the team in the game and Doubront has been making big strides in the absence of Buchholz and an effective Lester. Aceves has made the case for more spot starts, especially against the Tampa Bay Rays.
4. Pedey, Papi, and Nava (with a side order of Iggy and Ells). Papi has not skipped a beat since his return from the achilles injury that cost him most of the second half of 2012 and the first few weeks of 2013. Pedey, despite a recent slump, has put up a typical Pedey season to date, batting over .300 and gold-gloving it in the field. Nava has turned into a legit major leaguer, leading AL outfielders in on-base percentage and hitting the double digits in home runs. Ellsbury started slow, but has heated up of late and Iglesias, while his batting average is not sustainable over the long haul, has improved his plate approach and picked up a new position with no problems whatsover.
5. Stability in the clubhouse. Having John Farrell over Bobby Valentine as manager goes a long way toward improving the clubhouse culture. The players, coaches, and front office are on the same page and that leads to much better results than division, drama, and general chaos. Adding "clubhouse guys" like Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster, and Shane Victorino has also helped in that department.
6. More Salt, please. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has picked it up this past month, both at the plate and behind it. He has improved his game-calling skills and has even been able to become somewhat of an "Aceves whisperer". He's brought his average up to more respectable .263 and has even started throwing out baserunners with more regularity. With David Ross dealing with lingering concussion symptoms, it's been all the more important to have Salty step up.
Now for the not-so-good news. As the Red Sox face the Tigers, Orioles, Rangers, A's, and other top teams in the league, their weaknesses become more apparent, despite owning a better season record than any of those teams.
1. It's lonely at the top. Clay Buchholz has been a dominant pitcher and looks like he can go toe-to-toe with the best hurlers in the game. When he's on the mound, that is. For all his talent and outstanding results, it's hard to call a pitcher who can't seem to stay healthy an ace. With Jon Lester falling back into his exasperating 2012 ways and the rest of the rotation #3s at best, the team now lacks a true stopper--a pitcher that other teams dread facing. Relying on a fresh-off-Tommy John surgery John Lackey to be the #1 is unfair, as is relying on a league-average guy like Dempster or a young, still developing Doubront. Perhaps relying on Lester is a bit unfair as well, if his velocity has dipped and he's having to adjust to being a pitcher rather than a thrower. In order to play with the big boys in the league come September and October, the Red Sox are going to need to have someone in that stopper role. Either Buchholz gets and stays healthy and dominant or they're going to have to bite the bullet and make a big trade if they plan on making a playoff run this year.
2. Is This The Real Will Middlebrooks? Last year, before a broken wrist derailed a promising season, Will Middlebrooks emerged as a force in the lineup and a bright spot in an otherwise miserable year. His performance led the Red Sox to jettison Kevin Youkilis (who continues to struggle with injuries and whose days as an MLB player look to be numbered). This year, however, Middlebrooks looks thoroughly overmatched and his batting average has hovered around .200. He has 9 home runs, so the power is there, but the outs are coming with far too much frequency for a position that is relied upon for offense. When he went on the DL last month, I was, quite frankly, surprised to see him get so few minor-league rehab starts, especially with his replacement at 3B, Iggy, hitting like a house on fire. His plate approach is all screwed up and he could use some time in Pawtucket to get squared away. Surely a player as young as he has options remaining. If Xander tears though AAA pitching and Middlebrooks keeps being a near-automatic out, the X-man deserves a shot.
3. Too many walks. This pitching staff has a big problem with handing out free passes. In fact, they lead all of baseball in walks allowed. Few things are more frustrating than watching a Red Sox pitcher issue a free pass and then having that baserunner end up scoring. Make the hitters EARN their way on base. Walks make pitchers work from the stretch, create unnecessary baserunners, and, if they are threats to steal, further distract the pitcher. If they aren't making a difference in the win-loss record so far, they will over the course of a full season. I don't know if it is a penchant for collecting pitchers with command issues or an organizational philosophy that favors nibbling, but the Red Sox have a walk problem and that needs to be fixed. It costs starters pitches, keeping them from going deeper into games, and it makes things all the more dicey later in the game, when there are fewer chances to recovery.
4. Leaky 'pen. How many starters have been robbed of wins this season because the bullpen couldn't hold the lead. Soon-to-be-ex-closer Andrew Bailey has screwed both Doubront and Lackey out of well-deserved wins just his week. The jobbing of Lackey's win also cost the team a win in a series that looks like a tough one to split, let alone win. Short outings by starters (too many walks comes into play here) leads to overexposed relievers, which leads to wholesale bullpen burnout before too long. The team lacks a bona fide closer with Bailey serving up a nightly special of meatballs, Uehara an overuse risk, and Tazawa comes across as a bit timid to be put into that situation. At this point, the best option might be Andrew Miller, providing he keeps throwing strikes and getting swings and misses. Miller is prone to wildness, however, so even he is a considerable risk with a one-run lead in the ninth.
5. What of the O's woes? It was not so long ago that the situation was reversed, with the Red Sox dominating the O's to the point where they took 16 of 18 games from them in 2009. Since late 2011 and the so-called "Curse of the Andino" (Not my term. I found it on the Red Sox blogosphere), the tables have been turned and the O's have become the Red Sox' daddy. The O's are a division rival and now stand just a half-game behind them, so it would behoove the Red Sox to find a way to beat the Baltimore birdies or at least hold their own against them. They have made some headway against the Rangers, at least in the last series where Texas paid mightily for walking Pedey to face Papi. However, they face the O's a lot more often than they do the Rangers, so they need to get their act together against Baltimore or they will soon be looking up at them, and possibly a few other teams, in the standings.
