Now that the hideous 2012 season is over, Bobby V is gone, and a new manager in John Farrell is in place, I'm coming out of blog hiding to play GM, like the guys at Over The Monster just finished doing. First, while I was skeptical of the Farrell hire at first, especially given the dreaded word "compensation," it's only fair to give the guy a chance and see what he can do in a place that likely seems more comfortable and more like home to him than Toronto ever did. In Farrell, the Red Sox have someone who will be on the same page as the front office and trusted enough to hire his own coaching staff. He has brought Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield from his Toronto staff to be bench and third base coach, respectively. First base, pitching, and hitting coaches haven't yet been chosen and Gary Tuck's status as bullpen coach is unknown.
All that said, it's time to look at the roster and see what can be done to make the team at least somewhat competitive next year without sacrificing the future. The Humongous Trade of Epic Proportions (HTEP for short) that went down on August 25, where the desperate-for-a-playoff-berth Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of bad contract purgatory by taking on the hefty money allotted to Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, gave the team oodles of financial breathing room with which to rebuild the team. In order to avoid repeating the mistakes that led to such a historic deal, the Red Sox need to spend their newfound windfall wisely. Ben Cherington has his work cut out for him this offseason; he must decide what approach the Red Sox will take to rebuilding and how to balance the need to reload the team with quality homegrown talent and the need to regain lost trust and credibility with the fanbase by fielding a team that has a fighting chance at a playoff berth.
As to the homegrown talent, there's a lot of it just a year or two away from being major-league ready. The 4 B's (Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and Brentz) headline the group of promising prospects and all four could potentially fill some holes the Sox have going into this offseason. Xander Bogaerts, provided he doesn't physically "outgrow" the position, could become the long-term shortstop the team has been missing since the Nomar trade in 2004. Jackie Bradley, Jr is a center fielder who could make Ellsbury expendable when he hits free agency a year from now. Matt Barnes could be a top of the rotation starter the Red Sox badly need to stabilize their rotation. Bryce Brentz is an outfielder who can fill the left-field slot vacated by Crawford. Unfortunately, Opening Day 2013 is a little too far ahead of schedule for these young guys to reach The Show. Late season 2013 or sometime in 2014 is a better bet. The holes need to be filled before then and this is where Cherington needs to make some decisions.
Let's start with the bane of the Red Sox' existence from September 2011 to the first days of October 2012: Starting pitching. Lester fell off a cliff from his previous years' production. Buchholz had a rather odd season where he was horrendous the first month or so, then terrific for most of the summer, but turned mediocre in the fall. Doubront showed flashes of brilliance with his strikeout stuff, but couldn't pitch economically enough to go deep into games. Morales held his own as a starter, but the sample size is too small to project how he would do as a starter over an entire season. Cook, Dice-K, and the various and sundry other fill-in starters were dreadful, for the most part. Lackey missed the year with Tommy John surgery.
With Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, and Lackey each carrying big question marks going into the 2013 season, the rotation looks very unstable. This is where former Red Sox prospect Anibal Sanchez comes in. He may not have the upside of a Greinke or a Haren, but Greinke's history with anxiety disorders makes him a huge risk in the high-pressure, media-frenzied market of Boston baseball (think Carl Crawford) and Haren's bad back scares me (think Josh Beckett). If the Red Sox are going anywhere next year, Lester and Buchholz will have to bounce back. Sanchez slots in as a nice #3, with post-TJ Lackey and a sophomore Doubront bringing up the rear. Lackey could surprise the Sox and pitch like a #2 or #3, or he could be as bad as post-TJ Dice-K.
Starting pitching is where the focus should be for the Red Sox this offseason, but they cannot afford to neglect the bullpen. Most of the pieces for the 2013 are already in place, but the roles might need to be tweaked a bit. Andrew Bailey struggled in his limited opportunities at closer late in the season. Still, he deserves another shot. If he can start the season healthy (and that's a big if, given his history) he has the potential to be at least an adequate closer. If not, Junichi Tazawa, by virtue of his 2012 dominance, deserves a chance. At the very least, Tazawa should be considered a candidate for setup. Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Clayton Mortensen, Franklin Morales and Mark Melancon are in the mix for middle relief, as well as Daniel Bard. Oh, poor mismanaged Daniel Bard! Can Farrell and Pitching Coach To Be Named Later fix him? Is he a candidate for a "change of scenery" trade? Padilla and Atchison are free agents getting on in baseball years. Aceves, with his antics last year, coupled with mediocre to awful pitching has quite frankly worn out his welcome.
With the pitching being taken care of, let's move to first base. This one will not be easy to fill. Whether or not Gonzalez was a good fit in Boston, it will be very hard to replace his production at first, both with the bat and glove. Unlike at the other positions with holes that need to be filled, first base doesn't have an option waiting in AA or AAA. Lars Anderson turned out to be overmatched at first and was traded to Cleveland. The free agent options at first include Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche (if his option isn't picked up by the Nationals), Carlos Lee, and old friend Kevin Youkilis. LaRoche had an excellent season with the Nats last year and he's my top pick of this bunch. Many fans would love to see Youk back in a Red Sox uniform, but, sadly, I think his best days are behind him. There's a small chance he could bounce back if he switched back to the less physically demanding first base and he would be an upgrade over the AAAA Mauro Gomez, but I'd like to see a higher than .230 average at an offense-heavy position. A trade target is the Mets' Ike Davis and as long as he doesn't cost too dearly in prospects (Barnes and Bradley, in particular, are nearly untouchable in my opinion), he might be worth a shot. From a marketing standpoint, if he does well in Boston, "I Like Ike" T-shirts would fly off the shelves.
Second base being occupied by Pedey, the next hole to fill is at shortstop. JD Drew's kid brother Stephen is a possibility, but just like big bro, he's been dealing with some injuries lately. Then there's Jose Iglesias. His glove could be a pitcher's best friend. His bat, however, could be the opposing pitcher's best friend (credit to my dad on that one!). If the lineup is stacked with elite and above-average bats who can take some of the pressure off the kid to produce, that's one thing. If there are too many other lightweights in the lineup, as there were post-HTEP in September, then the Sox cannot afford to carry a nearly nonexistent bat in Iglesias, no matter how good his glove. In that case, it might be best to take a gamble on Stephen Drew.
With Will Middlebrooks covering third base, let's move to catcher. Is Salty the answer behind the plate? What about Lavarnway? Can either play at least average defense? Salty has some pop in his bat, but he's an all-or-nothing hitter who whiffs like there's no tomorrow. Lavarnway looked dreadful at the plate in September, but that might have been partly due to the fact that there weren't a whole lot of good bats around him to take the pressure off (as with Iglesias). Lavarnway has a better chance of being a decent hitter than Iglesias does, but his defense, like Salty's, is suspect at the major-league level. If it were my decision, I would keep Lavarnway, trade Salty, and find a defensively strong catcher (Jose Molina, anyone?) to be Lavarnway's backup.
Now, onto the outfield. There is a temptation to trade Ellsbury, who is likely to end up elsewhere when he becomes a free agent. Ells is hard to predict, given his crazy-good season in 2011, bookended by two injury-marred seasons in 2010 and 2012. If he doesn't run into anyone or have anyone sit on him, he could be an MVP contender, or something like that. He's a high-risk trade for that very reason. 2010 and 2012 could severely limit what the Red Sox could get for him in a trade, as well as his choice of agent, who will make sure he enters the free-agent market when his contract expires. If the Red Sox were to hold on to Ells and give him a qualifying offer upon his free-agency, they will receive compensation draft picks. My verdict: Unless they get blown away by an offer, keep Ells for 2013 and take the picks if he walks. After all, Bradley may be ready to take his place in 2014.
For right field, I would sign Cody Ross to a 2 or 3 year deal. Ross is not an elite player, but he is more than adequate with the bat and passable in the field. The latter years of the deal could see Ross at DH.
Left field, the other gaping hole created by the HTEP, like first base, doesn't have any easy answers. Nava was impressive for stretches last year, but his ceiling is AAAA and is more suitable for a bench role as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Kalish is another candidate, but he lost most of 2011 due to injury and needs more time in AAA before he can be counted on as a starting outfielder. Putting him on the bench would only hinder his development. Matt Sullivan, one of the bloggers at Over The Monster, had an interesting suggestion that doesn't seem as bad as it might on first glance: Jason Bay. Bay has been a disaster for the Mets and Sullivan suggested that the Red Sox offer to take Bay off their hands in a trade that also includes first baseman Ike Davis. Bay, 34, is a risk, with his concussion history, but part of his problem in Queens is with the righty-killing Citi Field. Fenway Park was a place where Bay thrived and the Green Monster is a righty power-hitter's best friend. As a stopgap to Brentz or Bogaerts, he makes more sense than one might think.
Last but not least: DH. Big Papi is playing hardball again and wanting 2 years at some pretty high coin, despite missing most of the second half due to a very troubling achilles injury. Due to that injury and the lingering effects it could have on his baserunning and hitting, its very risky to offer him a 2-year deal. To be honest, his kvetching about his contract during the season last year rubbed me the wrong way and proved as yet another distraction (one of few non-Bobby V-related distractions). 1 year at $16 million with a team option for a second year is about as far as I would go. If he wants more than that, call his bluff. Let him test the open market and see what an aging, one-dimensional player with an achilles injury can get. If he walks, having been made a qualifying offer, the Sox pick up draft picks and use the DH to rest position players.
Well, that was an exercise in verbosity! Here's what the team would look like in 2013 if I were in charge:
Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Doubront, John Lackey
Bullpen: Andrew Bailey (closer), Junichi Tazawa (setup), Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales (long relief, swing man), Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill (alternates include Daniel Bard & Alex Wilson)
C: Ryan Lavarnway
1B: Ike Davis (or Adam LaRoche)
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Jose Iglesias (or Stephen Drew)
3B: Will Middlebrooks
LF: Jason Bay (or Ryan Kalish)
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Cody Ross
DH: David Ortiz (or rotating DH)
Bench: Jose Molina, Daniel Nava, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Carlos Linares (alternates include Mauro Gomez and Pedro Ciriaco)
There you have it. I'm not expecting a World Series contender out of the 2013 team or even a playoff berth, but a respectable (over .500) record is well within reach if the team can shake the injury curse of 2010-2012. They will, in all likelihood be stronger contenders in 2014 and/or 2015 if the high-end prospects pan out. It's not too hard, however, to improve on 2012 and I expect them to do just that, if only because Bobby V is no longer in charge.
