Monday, September 29, 2014

Closing the Book on 2014

  I'm sorry I haven't blogged in awhile.  I'd drafted some posts, but canned them because they were too knee-jerk and too negative.   Now that the season is [mercifully] over, here are my more calm and rational thoughts on 2014 and how the Red Sox can improve for 2015 and beyond.

   The 2014 season served as a reminder that exceedingly few prospects transform into legitimate major-leaguers overnight.   Even Mike Trout, the poster boy for seamless transition to the big-time, had his struggles at the beginning.   Trout's struggles were very brief and his meteoric ascension into superstardom has set the bar impossibly high for prospects around the game.   For the sake of this Red Sox blog, we will focus the two prospects that the team attempted to lean heavily on going into the season:  Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.

   For Bradley, who struggled at the plate with limited time in the majors in 2013, he was supposed to be the future in center field--an elite defender with a decent bat that could soften the blow of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to "the dark side".   Bradley consistently impressed with his glove, once throwing a ball over the center field wall while standing on home plate, but struggled mightily with the bat, hovering over the Mendoza line all season.  For a brief time in July, he looked like he was starting to turn it around, only to return to business as usual for the remainder of the season, even after being sent down to Pawtucket to work on his swing.

   Xander Bogaerts had a far more favorable introduction to the Show at the end of the 2013 season and into the post-season, eventually supplanting Will Middlebrooks at third base.   He was an impact player when the lights were brightest and looked destined to follow through on the gargantuan potential he was thought to have possessed.   Through the early days of the 2014 season, he continued to show promise with the bat, even as he struggled playing shortstop.   His defensive struggles at one of the most important defensive positions in the game prompted the Red Sox to make an emergency call to a still-unsigned Stephen Drew.  Xander was moved back to third base and Drew's long layoff proved lethal for his lumber.

    Around that time, Xander had begun sliding into a slump that no one could have seen coming.   He had absolutely vanished at the plate while still dealing with some defensive struggles, leading some fans and media to believe that maybe the hype and pressure to perform in Boston was too much for him after all.   How else to explain the baffling disappearance of his bat?   The slump was so prolonged that, once Bradley was sent down to Pawtucket, it was fair to wonder whether Bogaerts would follow suit.   He never did and his slump continued until mid-August, when he was plunked in the helmet by a pitch and was placed on the 7-day concussion DL.  When he re-emerged in the final days of the month, his bat began to register a pulse.   The days of rest while on the DL appeared to have been the best thing to happen to him all season, giving him a week away from the game to recoup and regroup.   He finished the season on a strong note, batting .313 in September.

    The story of the 2014 Red Sox rookies wasn't all about the struggles, however.  Brock Holt made a case to be a regular in the lineup when he hit .348 in April after being cut from the major-league squad in favor of Jonathan Herrerra leading up to opening day.   His second half saw a rather steep drop-off, but he was the Red Sox' most versatile player and projects more as a super-utility player than a starter.

     Mookie Betts wasn't even on the radar in 2013, but he tore up the upper minors in 2014, leading to his first call-up in late June.  He had another brief call-up before he was up for good in August.   Betts ended the year hitting .291 with 5 HR and 18 RBI, spending his last two weeks playing second in place of the injured Dustin Pedroia.   Second base is his natural position, where he is blocked by Pedroia.  The 2015 outfield is crowded with Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Betts.   Some of those outfielders could be traded and, unfortunately, the most attractive trade chip is the charismatic Mookie, whose style of play is reminiscent of the World Championship 2013 team.   It would be painful to trade such a talented and likeable guy.  If the reward is right, however (and it would have to be a much-needed #1 or #2 starter or middle-of-the-order bat) such a trade might be a necessary sacrifice (think Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2006).

    As for the starting rotation, it would be a gross understatement to say that a lot of things changed from Opening Day to September 28.   Gone are Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront.  The August and September rotation included the likes of enigmatic Clay Buchholz, trade return Joe Kelly, the Buchholz-esque Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo.   Save for a strong performance here and there, it was a rotation of opposing teams' dreams and Red Sox fans' nightmares.
    
     Ironically it was Webster, who, at times looked petrified on a major-league mound, who finished the season the strongest.   De La Rosa, as a consequence of being used as a starter early in the season, showed signs of dead arm as the season ended.   Workman and Ranaudo might be better off in the bullpen.  Joe Kelly looks like a solid mid-back end starter.   We know Buchholz is sticking around, for better or worse, unless he is surprisingly dealt in a buy-low trade.   What is missing are two legitimate front-line starters and that's where the Red Sox have their work cut out for them, especially if they want to avoid giving out long contracts to pitchers over 30.  Jon Lester coming back is a longshot, especially if he pitches the Oakand A's deep into October.   Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will also cost a bundle in money and years.   James Shields is a few years older and likely less expensive, therefore being the most likely Red Sox target.

      The Red Sox made some big gambles that backfired spectacularly on them this year.  They gambled on rookies to replace free-agency losses.  They threw a monkey wrench into clubhouse chemistry by signing AJ Pierzynski.  They relied too heavily on guys like Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino who both had career years in 2013.  While Nava recovered from his early season slump, Victorino just couldn't stay on the field.  Pedey stayed on the field, but battled yet another secret injury, to the detriment of his batting line.   Napoli also battled nagging injuries all over his body that caused him to miss games here and there.   The starting pitching, led by Lester and Lackey, kept the team in the game more often than not in the first half, only to have the offense let them down game after game.

     The front office has a lot of work to do in getting the Red Sox back to respectability next year.   There are lessons to be learned from what happened in 2014.  Not all of the problems the Red Sox faced were the result of poor planning.  An extreme reversal of fortune, a pendulum swinging wildly the other way after catching more than their share of breaks in 2013, played a role as well. That said, leadership roles within the organization must be at least a subject of discussion in the offseason. 

      A World Championship season followed by a last-place finish clouds the picture of where or whether improvements need to be made with the coaching staff, but it wouldn't hurt to consider whether, say, a new hitting coach might help maximize the potential of some of the younger players.   The makeup of the team in 2013 was heavy with veterans where as the 2014 offense depended on the production of several rookies or near-rookies.   A team moving in the direction of younger players has different coaching needs than a veteran-laden squad.   To be fair, Greg Colbrunn dealt with health issues during the season.   The role of assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez is unclear--how many major league teams have two hitting coaches?  Do too many cooks spoil the soup? 

     The Red Sox having played their final game of 2014, I plan on rooting for my hometown team, the Nationals, in the post-season, hoping they learned their lessons from 2012 and at least make it to the NLCS this time, if not the Fall Classic.  I will root for Jon Lester to pitch the A's into the ALDS, partly because there are so many former Red Sox on that team.   I can take solace in the fact that neither the Yankees nor the Rays will be playing October baseball either.  

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