Thursday, September 30, 2010

The Night(s) the Lights Went Out

Tonight in Chicago at US Cellular Field, the lights went out during the game. Granted, the game was already out of hand and Lester had squandered his chance to finish with 20 wins and a sub-3 ERA and granted, neither team was playing for a post-season spot anymore, the power outage at The Cell was emblematic of all but a 6-week period of the Red Sox 2010 season. That 6-week period was mid-May through the end of June, when the Sox overcame their sub-par April to come within a half-game of first place. At the same time the Sox soared, the Rays scuffled and the Sox overtook them in the standings. It was the only part of the season where things went right for the Red Sox.

Then came the injuries. Already shorthanded in the outfield, the Sox would, in the space of one fateful series against the Giants in San Francisco, lose Pedey for the year (minus a 2-game ill-fated attempt to return) and Buchholz and V-Mart for about a month. A few days later, down goes Tek. Their replacements: Eric Patterson, Felix Doubront, Kevin Cash and Gustavo "not related to the other ones" Molina. Felix did alright, all things considered, but the other three--Yikes! July was brutal and August wasn't much better. September was up and down, but ended on a down note with a 3-game losing streak.

The lights may have literally gone out only one game this season (so far. It remains to be seen what happens this weekend at Fenway), but in all other ways they've been out during the times they've been needed the most. The most frustrating aspect of the season is the Red Sox uncanny penchant for passing up opportunities to gain ground in the pennant race, or, in the case of tonight's game, achieve an individual milestone. I wanted so badly for Lester to get his 20th win. It would have ended this season on a high note, regardless of what happened this weekend with the Yankees. Lester, unfortunately, could not come through. In his start tonight lies another analogy for the season: He had a rough first inning, a very good second inning (striking out the side, though he allowed a 2-out walk), but it all went downhill from there.

This offseason, the Red Sox have their work cut out for them. They have to overhaul the disastrous bullpen, make decisions on Papi, V-Mart, and Beltre (I hope they'll all be back next year. It's hard to replace that kind of production), maybe sign a free-agent outfielder (I'd prefer Crawford to Werth), and hope the injured players return fully healthy for next year. They need to spend less money on marketing and trying to shoehorn as many seats as possible into Fenway and more on building a team that can contend in the A.L. East. No more buzzwords like "run prevention" and "bridge year" Just make the necessary improvements to the team and maybe 2011 can be more like 2007.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

What We Learned from the 2010 Red Sox Season

The season, as far as the pennant race is concerned, is over. Dunzo. Finito. Kaput. You get the picture. Five games remain and the Sox have an 87-70 record. They will finish third place in the division and miss the big dance for the first time since 2006. We can't say we didn't see this coming for a long time. The injuries, the bullpen, the inconsistent pitching of 60% of the rotation, the instability of the lineup, the defense, the mediocre record against sub .500 teams, the rough April, it was just too much to overcome. They hung in for a lot longer than it looked like they would, but it was not meant to be this year.

What did Red Sox Nation learn from this very strange season? Let's make a list.

1. Darnell McDonald can give Zippy Chippy a run for his money in a man vs. horse, foot vs. hoof race.
2. The existence and location of the navicular bone. Thanks, Pedey!
3. Jon Lester and Hanley Ramirez: So not BFF's.
4. $1 could buy you a Daniel Nava. Turns out he was worth quite a bit more.
5. Rumors of Jed Lowrie's demise were greatly exaggerated.
6. Adrian Beltre should come with a warning label. Something depicting some broken ribs and a strongly-worded recommendation to not touch his head.
7. Little Vic Martinez takes after his dad and the Red Sox should strongly consider him for the 2022 draft. Heck, sign him now! I hear Pedey's looking for someone to call "shorty".
8. Ryan Kalish deftly combines the team sport of baseball with the individual sport of gymnastics.
9. San Francisco is one dangerous place for the Red Sox to play. Three games, three significant injuries.
10. Tito's coming out with a book called 101 Ways To Write Out A Lineup Card

Well, there you have it. It was a very...educational season indeed.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Stuck in the Middle

It's been awhile, but I've been on the blogging DL with emotional exhaustion. It's been that kind of season. Despite what I said in the last blog I posted a few weeks ago, I have been watching the Sox this month. Just when I tried to avoid watching, I'd get sucked back in again. It's hard to watch the fits and starts as the Sox try to put a run together with their Youk-less, Pedey-less team, underperforming starters, anorexic bullpen and sloppy defense when the game's on the line, but it's just as hard NOT to watch.

Besides the reasons I just listed for where the Sox find themselves in the standings, their poor start in April, when almost everyone was healthy (except for Ells, who got KO'ed by Beltre in the first week of play and lost virtually an entire season) is probably what separates them from the Yankees and the Rays, who have been playing no better than the Red Sox of late. They could have deep-sixed the Sox in July or August, but they couldn't widen the gap enough to do so.
The Sox hung around and won just enough games to keep them out of long, demoralizing losing streaks, but they could never put together long winning streaks either. The longest winning streak this season was a back-to-back sweep of the D-Backs and Dodgers in June, right before the avalanche of injuries occurred.

Rolling off a 10-game winning streak, especially in the second half, would have been a tall order when 60% of the starting rotation was as inconsistent as they were. Add in the lack of all-stars like Youk and Pedey, who would have helped the offense and the defense. Better defense on the right side of the infield, as well as in the outfield, where the absences of Ells and a healthy Mike Cameron would have helped the pitchers as well by converting some of those hits into outs. Guys who were playing hurt, like Scoots and Cam, are troupers for sure, but they also contributed to some of the sloppy play that made losses out of some games that could have been won.

The 2010 season is a weird one in that it has been both exasperating and inspiring, full of if onlys and questions about what might have been if Beltre and Ells had not both gone hard after that fly ball in Kansas City, if Pedey had not rocketed that ball off his foot in San Francisco, or Youk had not done whatever he did to tear that muscle in his hand. If Lackey had pitched like he did in LA as a member of the Angels, if Beckett stayed healthy and actually had to play for a contract next year, and if Dice-K went after hitters all season like he did tonight against the Yankees.

Amid all that went wrong this season, the one thing the Sox did improve on was how they played away from Fenway. Even if they lose all their remaining road games, they will finish the season 3 games over .500 on the road. Part of that is how well Lester and Buchholz pitched in unfriendly territory. Buchholz's road ERA: 2.57. Lester's: 2.33. Lester was actually a better pitcher on the road than at Fenway (3.67) Buch's home ERA: 2.20. Guys like Beltre, who hit slightly better on the road helped too.

The Red Sox record at Fenway, however took a huge hit this season. To date, they are only 10 games over .500 at home. Winning more games on the road is going to come at the expense of a dominant home record for most teams. You'd have to be a world-beating 100-plus win team to be dominant both at home and on the road.

Other good things that came out of this season: Buchholz' breakout year, Lester continuing to establish himself as an elite pitcher, the revival of Lowrie's baseball career along with a little more pop in his bat, the emergence of Kalish, who could find himself back with the big club in 2011, and the performance of replacement players Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava. Papi's 31 HR, the first time in 3 years he's hit more than 30, Beltre's MVP-caliber offensive numbers, and Bard's presence as a premier setup man are also silver linings to a disappointing season.

Only 7 games remain and the Sox are one loss or Yankees or Rays win away from their "tragic number" coming up. Lester still has one start left in which to earn win #20. Mike Lowell gets his Fenway salute next Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, barring some pigs-flying-over-a-frozen-over-hell epic choketacular by both the Yankees and Rays, coupled with a shifting of cosmic forces hurtling the Red Sox into an alternate universe where Youk, Pedey, Ells, and Cam are healthy and the pitching staff is equipped with bionic arms programmed to execute pitches with pinpoint location, the Sox play their last game of 2010. What long, freakishly bizarre trip it has been.

Give Dice-K props for stepping up and delivering a fine performance tonight. It's too bad the 'pen didn't follow his lead especially a certain closer with dollar signs in his eyes. The chump of an ump squeezed him like a lemon and Scoots let a few scoot by him, but eight blown saves? Really, Pap? Really????

Monday, September 6, 2010

A Sad, Sad State of Affairs

This may make me a bad fan (I abhor the sexist label "pink hat") but I just can't bear to watch the Red Sox anymore this season. After battling all summer to stay in contention in spite of an obscene amount of injuries, they have hit a wall and they have hit it hard. There's only so much the valiant replacement players can do.

So how much of this crash-and-burn is the responsibility of Red Sox management and how much can be chalked up to the cruel hand of fate? The injuries most definitely fall under the latter, but the way they were handled by the medical staff is an issue with the former. While the Sox docs didn't cause the injuries, the missed diagnoses (Ellsbury's ribs and the thumb injury that killed the trade of Lowell to Texas for two) didn't help much. The trainwreck that is the Red Sox bullpen (apart from Bard) is squarely on Theo Epstein. The signs of trouble were there last year: Manny Delcarmen had never been known for consistency. Ramon Ramirez tailed off significantly in the second half of last season. Okajima has been a steady decline since 2008. And what of Papelbon, with his seven blown saves this season? The Rays went out and got guys like Joaquin Benoit and Rafael Soriano. The Sox dipped into the Penny/Smoltz pile and got Schoenweis, Nelson, and Atchison. Atchison has helped them in some spots, but he's not someone who can take some of the burden off of Bard. Bullpen overhaul absolutely must be a priority in the offseason if they are to have any chance in 2011.

Another thing that has gone embarrassingly wrong for the Red Sox this season has been defense, especially by the pitchers. They have the most pitcher errors in all of baseball. What happened to PFP in spring training? Maybe they should practice fielding more often during the regular season too, because they need all the practice they can get not making fools of themselves once they step off the mound. Infield and outfield defense has taken a hit because of injuries (Youk and Pedey are SORELY missed at 1B and 2B). Scoots has been playing hurt, so he gets some slack here, but the defense has made the pitcher's job a lot tougher and not all of the fielding mistakes can be called errors.

The offense, obviously, dropped off because they are relying on too many AAA types and Papi and Drew are miserable against lefties this year. Losing three guys who hit around .300 is devastating, no matter how you slice it. Not to mention the speed the Sox lose without Ells.

The Sox play the Rays this week and I don't forsee it going well for them at all. They struggle against the Rays even under good circumstances. Sorry, Red Sox, but I'm tapped out in dealing with heartbreak this season. I'll be back next season, hoping for a bounceback year.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Earled Out: Thoughts on a Sox-less Evening

No team with the name "Sox" in it will be playing baseball tonight, due to the impending arrival of Hurricane Earl in the area. That means Manny-Fenway Reunion 2010 Part Deux will have to wait until tomorrow afternoon, weather permitting, in a day-night double-header. Oh goody, another day game. Earl is clearly not a Red Sox fan.

Just how tough is the AL East? Put it this way, the Red Sox are the best third-place team in baseball, with a .567 winning percentage and, if they were in the AL West, they'd be in first place, ahead of the Rangers and their .564. If they were in the AL Central, they would be in second, but only a game out of first behind the .575 Twins.

Moving over to the NL, the Phillies have an identical winning percentage to the Red Sox. They sit in the wild-card position and are second in the NL East, 2 games out of first. The wild-card leaders for the AL, by comparison, are the .617 Rays. Divisions play a huge part in who makes the playoffs and who ends their season October 3. It's quite possible that a team with a worse record than the Red Sox will make the playoffs as a division winner. Even the creation of the wild card can't make up for the gap in competitiveness between the AL East and the AL West.

The divisions were created for geographic reasons and the schedule is intra-division loaded. Time zone differences and travel distance likely play a role in the unbalanced schedule. The biggest problem with the divisions as they stand now is that good teams (not just the Red Sox, as could be the case this year) may miss the playoffs due to being third place in a killer division. The fact that the Tampa Bay Rays, once they got the Devil out of their name, soared up the ladder from worst to first in one year, topping the decade's two powerhouses in the Red Sox and the Yankees, is a testament to how good that team really was. Now, with those high draft picks who have matured to become stars, the Rays are one of the league's powerhouses in their own right.

The Red Sox, had they remained healthy and had Beckett and Lackey performed closer to their capabilities and career norms, could have been a powerhouse this year as well. Unfortunately, there's not enough room for three teams from the same division in the current post-season structure, regardless of what their records are relative to teams in other divisions. Those who complain about the wild card rewarding mediocrity haven't taken a look at the the disparity in competition among the divisions. Some wild card teams would be in first place in another division.

So, is a division realignment by MLB in order? Should the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays be split up so there's one in each division? That could give an unfair advantage to the team that gets to remain in the East, since they would have to travel a lot less to play teams within their own division. And what of the team that gets reassigned to the West, who has to fly cross-country for their intra-divisional away games? Talk about jet lag! No, that kind of realignment would be a big mess. Plus, the Rays' window of being a top team could be limited by both their star players becoming free agents and no longer having those top draft picks to fill in the gaps. In the meantime, a team like the Orioles could, with Buck Showalter at the helm and all the young talent they have, soar to the top in the near future, just like the Rays did in 2008. Leveling the playing field among the divisions is not an easy task with all the moving parts and the realities of geography and travel.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

A Dicey Win

OBIS almost got the best of Dice-K in tonight's game. OBIS = One Bad Inning Syndrome. After shutting down the O's bats through the first five frames, OBIS got a hold of Matsuzaka in the 6th, when the O's strung together some hits and almost erased the 5-0 lead the Red Sox had built with a big 2nd inning off Brad Bergesen (arguably an OBIS victim himself, at least in tonight's game). The O's put up a 4-spot in the 6th and left the Sox with a slim, 1-run lead. Thankfully, the Sox added some insurance in the 7th on a Mike Lowell groundout that had double-play written all over it. Fortunately for the Sox, Brian Roberts' throw went right through the 5-hole of 1B Ty Wigginton, Lowell was safe, and Papi who got on via the walk, took second when Beltre got drilled, and advanced on Lowrie's flyout outscored from third.

The big 2nd inning for the Red Sox started when Beltre went yard on Bergesen's first offering. Then, Lowrie walked, Lowell singled, and Nava hit a grounder to first that ate up Wigginton, allowing Lowrie to score from second on the error. Kalish doubled to knock in Lowell. Scoots walked and Papi came through with a 2-RBI single to cap off the 5-run attack.

Dice-K was lifted with 2 outs in the 6th for Atchison, who pitched much better than he did in Tampa Bay against Dan Johnson. He gave them two innings and was in turn lifted for Oki. That move scared the hell out of me, given how the O's OWN Oki, but the beleaguered lefty fanned Luke Scott and the Sox held on to their 2-run lead.

Pap had another one of those cardiac saves in the ninth, giving up two singles before recording an out on a sac bunt. However, he struck out the next two batters to pick up #35 for himself and preserve #9 for Dice-K.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

A Morale-Booster

At this point in the Red Sox' long, strange season, a playoff berth has essentially (if not yet mathematically) gone by the wayside, as I pointed out in my last blog. That doesn't mean I'm not still watching and cheering for the Sox. It just means that I've accepted the reality that, with the unreal amount of injuries, combined with the struggles of the bullpen and two key starters in Beckett and Lackey, 2010 is not their year.

That said, it was still uplifting to watch the Sox come from behind to win tonight. The O's, under new skipper Buck Showalter, have played some good ball of late. They look like a different team than they did earlier in the season. There's a lot of talent there and who knows what a whole season of Showalter will do for them next year. The Sox were able to get to the new and improved Baltimore Birdies tonight, though. Down 5-3 in the seventh, pinch-hitter extraordinaire (6 for 9 in that role this season) Darnell McDonald leads off with a single off towering lefty Mark Hendrickson. After Hall strikes out, Scoots atones for the previous game's costly error by knocking a 2-run dinger to tie the game at 5 a side. Drew works a walk and Hendrickson is lifted for righty Alfredo Simon. V-Mart doubles and Drew hauls ass all the way from first to score the go-ahead run. Having used up their lefty and with first base open, the O's elect to put Papi on via the four-finger salute. Beltre makes the O's pay big-time when he takes Simon yard for 3 runs, capping off a 6-run inning. The O's plate one more in the eighth off of Bard (double, groundout, sac-fly), but Pap gets his 34th save as the Sox win 9-6.

Lester had a rough first two innings, where he surrendered 5 runs (4 in the first, 1 in the second), which was very unusual for him against a team he usually dominates. However, he settled down to go 6 innings with 10 K's. His offense made sure he remained undefeated against the O's and picked up win #15 on the season by breaking out of their collective slump in the 7th, while he was still the pitcher of record.

Tomorrow, Dice-K takes the mound against Brad Bergeson in the rubber game. Dice was skipped the last time around due to back soreness, but is apparently ready to go tomorrow. Salty and Patterson were activated from the DL and Richardson was called up once again. More call-ups will follow as Pawtucket ends it's season.