Sunday, July 20, 2014

Just Pay Him Already!

      If you heard the "ka-chings" that went off after every strikeout, every scoreless inning of Jon Lester's outing against the Royals today, that was the southpaw's price tag getting higher.   Lester blanked Kansas City over 8 frames, earning his tenth win and the first Red Sox sweep of an opponent since Big Papi was in Little League.   In one corner is Jon Lester, his 2.50 ERA, his history of post-season dominance, and his 200-inning durability.    In the other corner, Ben Cherington and a pathologically gun-shy front office who would sooner call Brian Cashman up with Lester's jersey size than give him a long-term, big-money contract extension.   Yes, the Carl Crawford mega-contract bombed.  Yes, Adrian Gonzalez left his power on the West Coast.  No, neither Gonzalez nor Crawford were brought up in the Red Sox system and neither knew beforehand what it was like to play in a baseball and media-crazed city like Boston.  

       Taking a gamble on Lester would be taking a gamble on a known entity as far as how well he could pitch in the AL East and handle playing in Boston, pitching at a hitter's park like Fenway.  Sure he had a crappy 2012 and he gets a little agitated when calls don't go his way, but he's battle-tested in one of the toughest markets in MLB.  All free-agent pitchers of his talent level and career pedigree are going to be paid up the wazoo.   If the Red Sox think they can replace Lester by a trade or another free agent, they would be taking a bigger risk than extending him even if the "replacement" is on a shorter deal.  Why?  It's unknown how said "replacement" will respond to pitching in conditions that Lester has pitched in for the past seven years. 

       Replacing Lester from within the farm has its own risks, the greatest of which is the unfair pressure he would inevitably be under to be the new ace of the staff.  None of the current pitchers in the rotation are front-line material.  Lackey, if he returns, will be 36 and he has battled some inconsistency of late.  Buchholz has been wildly inconsistent and has trouble staying healthy.   Peavy is gone, likely at the trade deadline, and Workman and De La Rosa project as back-of-the-rotation guys.  Even top pitching prospect Henry Owens is projected to be a #2 or #3 at best and he has yet to pitch in the major leagues.

  If the Red Sox want to contend next year, they need to sign Lester.   As Lester ages, maybe one of the youngsters will outperform his projection and become an ace, but asking him to be #1 from the moment he suits up for his Red Sox debut is not the way to go.   They have enough young players making league minimum that they can afford to sign Lester to the kind of deal he deserves.   The only question is, will they pony up and do it or go small market and try to sell a multi-year rebuilding process with the highest ticket prices in baseball.  

No comments: