Thursday, July 9, 2015

On The Edge

     The Red Sox have quietly started digging themselves out of the hole they dug in May and early June as their bats have come alive, led by Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, and Alejandro De Aza, with some key contributions at the plate by Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz.  Clay Buchholz has put together a string of dominant starts that we hope continues tomorrow night and though the second half.  Eduardo Rodriguez has taken a few lumps (and tipped a few pitches) but he looks very promising.  Wade Miley has had more good starts than bad ones.  Rick Porcello has scuffled big-time, but having Ryan Hanigan back behind the plate helped guide him through a quality start last night in which he earned the W. 

       Some rather large issues remain, even as their record and outlook on the season has improved.  The biggest issue is a bullpen with so few trustworthy options and too many relievers that bring anything but relief (unless you happen to be batting for the opposing team).   Outside of Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa (against anyone but the Toronto Blue Jays), and most of the time, Alexi Ogando.  Tommy Layne is a serviceable LOOGY, but you don't want him facing many righties.  Craig Breslow hasn't been reliable since the 2013 ALCS.  Robbie Ross, Jr. is not the guy you want on the mound in a late and close game either.  Matt Barnes is getting taken yard just about every time he enters the game.  If the Red Sox are going to keep inching toward .500 and climbing the standings, they need to shore up that bullpen.  
  
        Would it be worth converting Joe Kelly to a reliever?  The Red Sox have done this before with struggling starters such as Andrew Miller and Junichi Tazawa with excellent results.  Wade Davis of the Kansas City Royals was also converted from mediocre starter to lights-out reliever.  Kelly has the velocity to be a flamethrowing reliever.  The command might be a problem, however.  If he can tighten his command and control, it's conceivable that he could be the kind of bullpen arm the Red Sox need and he would not come with the prospect cost of relievers outside the organization.  

       Other than Kelly, the Red Sox could look into Henry Owens as a reliever, at least for the rest of this year.   It doesn't mean he won't ever start games again, but if they can solve their bullpen problem without having to make a trade, Owens in the 'pen shouldn't be ruled out.  The same could be said for Brian Johnson, although he may be more needed as a starter with Masterson looking more and more like his days of being an effective major league pitcher are behind him.  

         The next issue would be the first base problem, namely what to do about Mike Napoli.  Napoli raked in Spring Training and it looked like his offseason sleep apnea surgery had rejuvenated him.  Once the season started, however, he has looked woefully overmatched at the plate, struggling to adjust to what he and the Red Sox perceive as an expanded strike zone.   He's only 33, but wasn't Kevin Youkilis around that same age when he seemingly lost his ability to hit a baseball?   Being a catcher earlier in his career meant more wear and tear on his body over the years.  

          Within the organization, they have Brock Holt, Travis Shaw, Allen Craig, and Daniel Nava.  Holt has the most ability with the lumber, but he is not built like a first baseman and doesn't hit for enough power.  Also, he is too valuable as a super utility player, filling in wherever he is needed.  His versatility and his batting average have earned him his first All Star berth.   Shaw is a 25-year-old who had mediocre numbers in AAA, which doesn't portend sustained success at the major league level.  Allen Craig is also underwhelming in Pawtucket and it doesn't appear that Nava is making a case for himself either.  

           First base is where the Red Sox may have to bite the bullet and trade for someone if they are still playing good baseball at the deadline.   They may have to do so with the bullpen and/or starting rotation as well, but there are more internal options on the pitching side with a chance of working out than there are with first base.   If they go on a major tear and feel like a playoff push is realistic (they're not quite there yet), a top of the rotation starter would be in play if only as insurance against Buchholz's health and Rodriguez's being a rookie who may have innings limits.  

           In stark contrast to the dark days of May and early June (and April, where the starting pitching is concerned), the Red Sox are a fun team to watch.  The young core, led by a trio of 22-year-olds in Rodriguez, Bogaerts and Betts, are among the biggest contributors to the team's resurgence.  Big Papi may not scare as many pitchers as he used to, but his power hasn't left him.   Hanley's glove is best utilized at DH, but it's unrealistic to expect Papi to play first base more than once or twice in a blue moon.   His bat, however, is looking more like it did in April, before he crashed into an outfield wall and saw his power and average plummet in May.   They appear to be having more fun and playing more cohesively.  Who knows how long this will continue?   Might as well enjoy it while it lasts.