Despite my somewhat irrational fears of the Ghost of 2011, the Red Sox clinched the AL East crown last Friday night. They took 2 out of 3 from Toronto and they now boast a 95-62 record, which is the best in MLB. More importantly, it is the best in the American League, which has playoff implications that could, should they stay on top over their last 5 games, give them several advantages in the division series. The team that is standing in their way, only 1.5 games behind, is the team that reminds me the most of the Red Sox in spirit, composition, and even facial hair: The Oakland A's (93-63). It seems like half of that team played for the Red Sox at some point. The Tigers aren't too far behind in the home field advantage chase either, at 91-65.
What is at stake for the team with the best record in the AL? Home field advantage, for one. The Red Sox (53-28) post the best home record in the league, though Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay aren't far behind. Perhaps an even bigger edge for the top seed going into the ALDS is that they get to play the winner of the Wild Card play-in game. The two Wild Card teams will be at a disadvantage, having to use one of their best pitchers just to get the chance to play in the division series. They will get less rest than the division winners and they won't get the chance to set up their rotation. That by no means guarantees the team who plays the Wild Card winner a ticket to the league championship series (see last year's Washington Nationals, who had the best record in baseball, but who got bested by the Wild Card Cardinals in the NLDS). However, the advantages the top seed gets are worth playing for in the last two series of the regular season.
On a somewhat unrelated note, thoughts go out to Manny Machado, who had to be carted off the field after a pretty scary looking knee injury this afternoon during the O's game against the Rays. While the O's have been a huge thorn in the side of the Red Sox for the past couple of years, you hate to see any player get hurt like that and be in so much pain, especially such a talented and exciting young player like Machado.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Complacency and the Ghost of 2011
What happened to the team that swept the Yankees this weekend? Did they spend the off-day Monday celebrating a division win that isn't theirs yet? News flash, Red Sox: The magic number to clinch the AL East is 3, not zero. There is still work to be done and the O's are a team you have to beat. Last night and especially tonight against the O's I saw a complacent team reminiscent of that awful 2011 team that just assumed they were making the playoffs and stopped playing with any sense of purpose. How do you get 15 hits, yet only score 3 runs? And hit into 4 double plays??? And why, John Farrell, is Stephen Drew still in the lineup against lefties?
Red Sox, do you want to shut me up about 2011? Then how about going out and winning 3 games (or more, preferably more to secure home field advantage)? Don't let this chance slip away again! Settling for a wild card playoff game is not making the playoffs in my book. The real playoffs begin with the division series. You've been playing so well this month. Please let these two games be but a small bump in the road and get back to WINNING! You're too close to fall apart now.
Red Sox, do you want to shut me up about 2011? Then how about going out and winning 3 games (or more, preferably more to secure home field advantage)? Don't let this chance slip away again! Settling for a wild card playoff game is not making the playoffs in my book. The real playoffs begin with the division series. You've been playing so well this month. Please let these two games be but a small bump in the road and get back to WINNING! You're too close to fall apart now.
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Slammin' their way through September
The Red Sox have hit 8 grand slams this season. Half of them have come in September. Middlebrooks hit the first one of the month in the 20-4 annihilation of the Tigers. Napoli launched one in Yankee Stadium last weekend. Carp hit a 10th inning granny against the Rays. Most recently, Salty broke a 4-4 tie on Friday at home against the Yankees. This is all part of the Red Sox doing everything they can to put the bitter memories of Septembers 2011 and2012 so far behind them they seem like ancient history.
With their sweep of the Yankees and the Rays' loss this afternoon, the Red Sox' magic number has been whittled down to 4. This means they have the chance to clinch their first division title in 6 seasons as early as Wednesday. Clinching the AL East with more than a week to go in the regular season wouldn't mean the Sox can or should take their foot off the gas, however. The division winner gets 4 days off between the last game of the regular season and the first game of the ALDS, so there will be time for the players to rest. Building (or maintaining, as the case may be) momentum in the final week of the season is key to hitting the ground running in the postseason. Teams that let up too much after an early clinch have to find a way to ramp their intensity back up in short order for that first playoff series and nothing ramps up intensity like winning games going into that series. Given their current winning percentage, the Red Sox are on pace to win 98 games, matching their 2004 record. Unlike in 2004, 98 games would be more than enough to win the division. 98 wins won't guarantee anything in the playoffs (just ask the 2012 Washington Nationals), but clinching best record in the American League gives a team home field advantage throughout.
With their sweep of the Yankees and the Rays' loss this afternoon, the Red Sox' magic number has been whittled down to 4. This means they have the chance to clinch their first division title in 6 seasons as early as Wednesday. Clinching the AL East with more than a week to go in the regular season wouldn't mean the Sox can or should take their foot off the gas, however. The division winner gets 4 days off between the last game of the regular season and the first game of the ALDS, so there will be time for the players to rest. Building (or maintaining, as the case may be) momentum in the final week of the season is key to hitting the ground running in the postseason. Teams that let up too much after an early clinch have to find a way to ramp their intensity back up in short order for that first playoff series and nothing ramps up intensity like winning games going into that series. Given their current winning percentage, the Red Sox are on pace to win 98 games, matching their 2004 record. Unlike in 2004, 98 games would be more than enough to win the division. 98 wins won't guarantee anything in the playoffs (just ask the 2012 Washington Nationals), but clinching best record in the American League gives a team home field advantage throughout.
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Getting Closer
So far, so good for the Red Sox in September. They are 6-2 for the month and won two big series against the Tigers and the Yankees. They are 87-58 on the season and have snuck by the Atlanta Braves for best record in baseball. Their magic number for clinching the division stands at 12. In the era of the Wild Card one-game playoff, winning the division is at a premium. 7.5 games separate the Red Sox from the Rays and a statement series between the two teams begins on Tuesday.
The Sox got some disturbing news this weekend when it was revealed that Ells fractured his navicular bone (again with the navicular!). The team is of the mind that the fracture is not serious and that Ells may return before the end of the season, but this is Ells we're talking about. He missed almost two whole seasons with injuries that seemed to be very slow to heal. Losing a nearly .300 hitter with his speed and glove would make a deep October run a little harder, but not impossible. Perhaps more than any other team in MLB and even any other Red Sox team in recent memory, the 2013 Red Sox are truly an ensemble cast, light on superstars, but very deep, with enough quality players and a team-first mentality in stark contrast to recent years.
How many games will this team win? There are 17 games left in the regular season. Winning 9 of those 17 would match the 2007 record of 96-66. Going 11-6 would match 2004's 98-64 mark. Final record doesn't matter as much as winning the division, but finishing as the top team in the league would give them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Red Sox are a good road team, but they are truly dominant at Fenway, with the best home record in the league and the second-best in MLB.
It's looking more and more likely that the Red Sox will return to the playoffs after a 4-year absence, but there's still a little work to be done, particularly against the rest of the AL East. The return of Will Middlebrooks to what looks like his 2012 self (one of the only players we want to see returning to 2012 form!) along with a resurgent Mike Napoli give the Sox the right-handed power they need and some protection for Big Papi in the lineup. Stephen Drew's steady bat and glove are making Xander Bogaerts' playing time scarce. Jackie Bradley, Jr. is getting the chance to show what he can do in Ells' absence.
Clay Buchholz (remember him?) is scheduled to return to the rotation next week in Tampa. Whether he will be a reasonable facsimile of his early-season Kershaw-esque self remains to be seen. I'd take an ERA in the low 3's from him at this point. A rotation of Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, and Lackey, in whatever order, is a competitive playoff rotation.
The Sox got some disturbing news this weekend when it was revealed that Ells fractured his navicular bone (again with the navicular!). The team is of the mind that the fracture is not serious and that Ells may return before the end of the season, but this is Ells we're talking about. He missed almost two whole seasons with injuries that seemed to be very slow to heal. Losing a nearly .300 hitter with his speed and glove would make a deep October run a little harder, but not impossible. Perhaps more than any other team in MLB and even any other Red Sox team in recent memory, the 2013 Red Sox are truly an ensemble cast, light on superstars, but very deep, with enough quality players and a team-first mentality in stark contrast to recent years.
How many games will this team win? There are 17 games left in the regular season. Winning 9 of those 17 would match the 2007 record of 96-66. Going 11-6 would match 2004's 98-64 mark. Final record doesn't matter as much as winning the division, but finishing as the top team in the league would give them home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Red Sox are a good road team, but they are truly dominant at Fenway, with the best home record in the league and the second-best in MLB.
It's looking more and more likely that the Red Sox will return to the playoffs after a 4-year absence, but there's still a little work to be done, particularly against the rest of the AL East. The return of Will Middlebrooks to what looks like his 2012 self (one of the only players we want to see returning to 2012 form!) along with a resurgent Mike Napoli give the Sox the right-handed power they need and some protection for Big Papi in the lineup. Stephen Drew's steady bat and glove are making Xander Bogaerts' playing time scarce. Jackie Bradley, Jr. is getting the chance to show what he can do in Ells' absence.
Clay Buchholz (remember him?) is scheduled to return to the rotation next week in Tampa. Whether he will be a reasonable facsimile of his early-season Kershaw-esque self remains to be seen. I'd take an ERA in the low 3's from him at this point. A rotation of Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, and Lackey, in whatever order, is a competitive playoff rotation.
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Tigers Tamed, Sox Bats Go Bonkers
I sure wish John Lackey had been on the mound for the kind of once-in-a-decade offensive explosion the Red Sox unleashed on Tigers pitching last night. They put up three touchdowns worth of runs (minus an extra point). They hit a dinger, then a long ball, then a tater, then a salami, a jack, a four-bagger, a round-tripper, and went bridge for good measure. The last time the Red Sox touched 'em all eight times in one game, Big Papi was a year and a half old, Koji and new Red Sox John McDonald were two, last night's starter Ryan Dempster was two months old and David Ross was three months old. The rest of the team wasn't even born yet.
The last time the Red Sox scored at least 20 runs in a game was in 2003, when they bludgeoned the Marlins for 25. In the middle of all the run-scoring chaos, Papi reached a milestone 2000 career hits by sandwiching a double between two home runs for 1999 and 2001. He was the only one to go yard twice last night, with Drew, Ells, Middlebrooks (grand slam), Lavarnway, Nava, and Napoli joining him. That's seven guys hitting eight bombs! The Red Sox are a team better known for their on-base percentage than their power, but when they do leave the yard, they do it in bunches (recall the 6-homer barrage in Toronto on April 7 of this year). This time, they did it at Fenway in front of the home crowd.
Last night's game was a whole lot of fun to watch, especially since they were doing it against their rivals for best team in the AL. However, as the story often goes with all teams, after such a bountiful feast at the plate, there is often a famine the next night. It's as if the batters are all exhausted from all that hitting and baserunning. Fortunately for hard-luck starter Lackey, he won't be the one at the likely short end of the stick tonight, with Jake Peavy toeing the rubber for the series opener against the why-couldn't-they-just-stay-in-fourth-place Yankees. In order to keep them and the Rays and O's at a distance, the Red Sox need to at least split the series, but it's always better to get the series win. They made a statement by taking two of three from the Tigers and now it's time to keep the momentum going.
The last time the Red Sox scored at least 20 runs in a game was in 2003, when they bludgeoned the Marlins for 25. In the middle of all the run-scoring chaos, Papi reached a milestone 2000 career hits by sandwiching a double between two home runs for 1999 and 2001. He was the only one to go yard twice last night, with Drew, Ells, Middlebrooks (grand slam), Lavarnway, Nava, and Napoli joining him. That's seven guys hitting eight bombs! The Red Sox are a team better known for their on-base percentage than their power, but when they do leave the yard, they do it in bunches (recall the 6-homer barrage in Toronto on April 7 of this year). This time, they did it at Fenway in front of the home crowd.
Last night's game was a whole lot of fun to watch, especially since they were doing it against their rivals for best team in the AL. However, as the story often goes with all teams, after such a bountiful feast at the plate, there is often a famine the next night. It's as if the batters are all exhausted from all that hitting and baserunning. Fortunately for hard-luck starter Lackey, he won't be the one at the likely short end of the stick tonight, with Jake Peavy toeing the rubber for the series opener against the why-couldn't-they-just-stay-in-fourth-place Yankees. In order to keep them and the Rays and O's at a distance, the Red Sox need to at least split the series, but it's always better to get the series win. They made a statement by taking two of three from the Tigers and now it's time to keep the momentum going.
Sunday, September 1, 2013
Take Back September
In 2011 and 2012, September and the Red Sox have mixed like oil and water, the Hatfields and the McCoys and prime rib and Pinot Grigio. In other words, not well. Not well at all. Will things be different for the 2013 Red Sox? Chances are, they will, just by virtue of the fact that it's hard to do worse. The 2011 Red Sox may have had the talent, but not the heart (or the rotation depth, for that matter). The 2012 Red Sox were a AAA team if they were even that after the loss of Papi and the Sox-Dodgers Megatrade, relying on the likes of Pedro Ciriaco, Ryan Lavarnway, and an overmatched Jose Iglesias. James Loney looked nothing like the rejuvenated Tampa Bay Rays version and the rotation was grotesque, with Dice-K, an inconsistent Buchholz, a Lester who has having the worst season of his career, Aaron Cook, a fatigued Doubront, and a few other forgettable characters.
The 2013 Red Sox have had their ups and downs, and on paper, don't have the same gravitas as the likes of the Detroit Tigers, the Los Angeles Dodgers, or the Atlanta Braves. However, it has been a remarkable turnaround for the Red Sox, who were expected to finish in the middle of the pack at best at the outset of the season. As the season progressed and the team remained on or near the top of the AL East, however, expectations understandably rose. This team that is greater than the sum of its parts appears to be the antithesis of the 2011 team who saw Terry Francona as a lame duck manager and the 2012 team who saw Bobby Valentine as an odious interloper. GM Ben Cherington went after solid MLB players with a team-first mentality as opposed to sexy high-priced free agents and so far his strategy seems to have paid off.
What does all this mean as the Red Sox enter the home stretch of the season? One thing that gives them an edge is that they have some Monday off-days that other teams don't have due to the fact that they already have played more games than most of the rest of MLB. This allows them to set their rotation so that they can skip the guys that aren't performing as well. Another important factor in September is the return of Clay Buchholz, provided he returns on schedule and pitches at least somewhat close to how he did before he went down in early June. Most of the Red Sox' September schedule pits them against their division rivals. They have two more series with the Orioles left, as well as two more Yankees series, one more Blue Jays series and one more Rays series. Throw in a Tigers series at Fenway and a trip to Denver to face the Rockies and you have the balance of the schedule.
In the new playoff format, winning the division takes on much greater meaning. Avoiding a one-game wild-card playoff is key for the Red Sox, as it is for any team with aspirations of making it to the "real playoffs" starting with the Division Series. A one-game playoff is such a crapshoot and it could throw a monkey wrench into the playoff rotation, should they win that one game. As of this evening, with a Red Sox win and a Rays loss, the division lead stands at 5.5, the largest it has been in a long while. As long as the Red Sox keep winning series, they should hold on to that division lead and take their first AL East crown since 2007. After struggling earlier in the month, the Red Sox ended August on a high note and started September off in the W column. The series with Detroit is a big one; it could be an ALDS preview. Taking 2 of 3 would make a strong statement that the team short on superstars but long on character can go toe-to-toe with the star-studded Tigers lineup and rotation. After that, it's mostly taking care of business in their own division.
The 2013 Red Sox took back April this season with an 18-8 record. It would be wonderful if they could do the same in September, even if it isn't quite at that lofty clip. A .500 record for the rest of the month gets them 94 wins. Whether that would be enough to win the division remains to be seen. It looks to be an exciting month and the team has something to prove as it tries to erase the godawful memories of the two most recent Septembers.
The 2013 Red Sox have had their ups and downs, and on paper, don't have the same gravitas as the likes of the Detroit Tigers, the Los Angeles Dodgers, or the Atlanta Braves. However, it has been a remarkable turnaround for the Red Sox, who were expected to finish in the middle of the pack at best at the outset of the season. As the season progressed and the team remained on or near the top of the AL East, however, expectations understandably rose. This team that is greater than the sum of its parts appears to be the antithesis of the 2011 team who saw Terry Francona as a lame duck manager and the 2012 team who saw Bobby Valentine as an odious interloper. GM Ben Cherington went after solid MLB players with a team-first mentality as opposed to sexy high-priced free agents and so far his strategy seems to have paid off.
What does all this mean as the Red Sox enter the home stretch of the season? One thing that gives them an edge is that they have some Monday off-days that other teams don't have due to the fact that they already have played more games than most of the rest of MLB. This allows them to set their rotation so that they can skip the guys that aren't performing as well. Another important factor in September is the return of Clay Buchholz, provided he returns on schedule and pitches at least somewhat close to how he did before he went down in early June. Most of the Red Sox' September schedule pits them against their division rivals. They have two more series with the Orioles left, as well as two more Yankees series, one more Blue Jays series and one more Rays series. Throw in a Tigers series at Fenway and a trip to Denver to face the Rockies and you have the balance of the schedule.
In the new playoff format, winning the division takes on much greater meaning. Avoiding a one-game wild-card playoff is key for the Red Sox, as it is for any team with aspirations of making it to the "real playoffs" starting with the Division Series. A one-game playoff is such a crapshoot and it could throw a monkey wrench into the playoff rotation, should they win that one game. As of this evening, with a Red Sox win and a Rays loss, the division lead stands at 5.5, the largest it has been in a long while. As long as the Red Sox keep winning series, they should hold on to that division lead and take their first AL East crown since 2007. After struggling earlier in the month, the Red Sox ended August on a high note and started September off in the W column. The series with Detroit is a big one; it could be an ALDS preview. Taking 2 of 3 would make a strong statement that the team short on superstars but long on character can go toe-to-toe with the star-studded Tigers lineup and rotation. After that, it's mostly taking care of business in their own division.
The 2013 Red Sox took back April this season with an 18-8 record. It would be wonderful if they could do the same in September, even if it isn't quite at that lofty clip. A .500 record for the rest of the month gets them 94 wins. Whether that would be enough to win the division remains to be seen. It looks to be an exciting month and the team has something to prove as it tries to erase the godawful memories of the two most recent Septembers.
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