The Winter Meetings are like a 4-5 day long Black Friday for MLB teams, minus the deep discounts and long lines. Big-ticket free agents fly off the "shelves" and trades are made as teams stock up for the coming season. So far, the Red Sox' cart contains Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino (as in the Flyin' Hawaiian). Both have been signed through the 2015 season and they fill holes that needed to be filled. They are solid pickups who can hold the fort down while the prospects continue developing. Before the meetings started, the Sox had brought David (no relation to Cody) Ross as a backup catcher and Jonny Gomes to play left field.
Having filled most of their position player spots (they may still be looking for bench players or a shortstop), the task that remains is a doozy: Find a starting pitcher or two that can stabilize a rotation full of gargantuan question marks, preferably one who isn't a gargantuan question mark himself. Let's take a look at who they have and why their question mark is so large and unwieldy:
1. Jon Lester: What the eff happened to Lester in 2012? He looked like Jon Lester. He sounded like Jon Lester. He didn't however, pitch like Jon Lester--at least not the Jon Lester we were used to seeing since his breakout season in 2008. He had no apparent injury, but his velocity was down and he just wasn't putting away the batters like he used to. At 28, he was supposed to be in his prime. Was 2012 a down year or is he having a puzzling early decline? Can John Farrell help him find his form again, even if he is no longer the pitching coach?
2. Clay Buchholz: 2012 was A Tale of Two Clay Buchholzes. One was completely lost on the mound, pitching batting practice to opposing lineups and posting an ERA over 8 in the early weeks of the season. The other was dominant, looking like his 2010 self for the middle of the season. In September, after the Bailout Trade, he looked to be regressing to his early season form. Which Clay Buchholz will we see in 2013? Can he stay healthy?
3. Felix Doubront: Doubront didn't do too badly for a rookie. His season was essentially the opposite of Buchholz's. He came out of the gate strong, hit a wall mid-season, and after being given a breather late in the season in the way of a skipped start, he finished strong. His biggest bugaboo in his first full season in the majors was not being able to pitch deep into games due to getting into deep counts early and often. He also struggled at times to keep the ball in the park. Will these struggles continue and keep him in the back of the rotation or will he learn how to better pace himself now that he has a full season under his belt?
4. John Lackey: The last big free agent starting pitcher signed, Lackey has struggled mightily in a Red Sox uniform. He was average or just a little below in 2010, but absolutely dreadful in 2011. His 2011 was most likely due to an elbow badly in need of Tommy John surgery, which he had after the season. He should be ready to go in 2013, a year and several months post-surgery. The question is, how will he pitch in 2013? Will he be the John Lackey who was the Angels' ace before heading east to Boston three years ago? Will he be the 2010 John Lackey? Or, heaven forbid, will he be the 2011 version of himself? After all, Dice-K didn't improve much after his TJ surgery, did he? It's more likely he'll be the 2010 version, which is #4 starter material on a team that hopes to contend in the AL East.
Ideally, the Red Sox would be looking for an ace who can take some of the pressure off of Lester and Buchholz, who can slide into the #2 and #3 slots, which are more in line with their ability than the #1 and #2 ever were. Alas, the only pitcher who comes close to slotting in the #1 spot appears to be the pitching version of Carl Crawford and not a good fit for the ultra-intense Boston market. That would be Big Free Agent Prize Zach Greinke. Right below him would be Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking a 6+ year megadeal. The Nats snapped up Dan Haren, who has a high upside despite an injury-filled down year in 2012.
Below Haren, you have the likes of Brandon McCarthy, who is coming off a brain injury (from taking a line drive to the head last September), but has a high upside as long as he is free of any lingering physical or psychological effects of said injury, Kyle Lohse, who has only pitched in the NL, Ryan Dempster, who struggled in his only AL gig last year with the Rangers and will be in his age 36 season, and Edwin Jackson, who would probably pitch to a mid 4 ERA in the AL East. R.A. Dickey's name has been bandied about as a trade candidate, but the Mets' asking price is exorbitantly high for a 38-year-old knuckleballer coming off a career season. Gavin Floyd as a trade candidate projects to be a #4 or #5 guy in the AL East and the Red Sox have a glut of #4s and #5s already. My guess is that the Red Sox land one (or two) of McCarthy, Lohse, Dempster or Jackson. If McCarthy looks to be fully recovered from that scary brain injury, he's probably my favorite because of his AL experience and the fact that he's younger than Lohse and Dempster. Jackson is also on the younger side, but he can be inconsistent and a little too close to what the Sox already have.
