Bye Bye, Bay!

Massachusetts may still be the Bay State, but the Red Sox will no longer see him in the home locker room putting on his #44 jersey and playing in front of the Green Monster. Jason Bay's on his way to Flushing to play in not-quite-as-hitter-friendly Citi Field in a New York Mets uni. Well...at least it isn't that OTHER New York team, right???

When the Sox signed John Lackey and Mike Cameron earlier this month, the writing was on the wall as far as where they stood with Bay. When the offers didn't come pouring in from other teams--the Mets' offer being the only one out there besides the one he poo-pooed from the Red Sox--there was speculation that the Red Sox might revisit negotiations with the slugging Canadian who claimed to have sported a Red Sox onesie as a baby. If the were to do that, however, there would be a surplus of outfielders, including the one they just signed in Cameron. It is becoming increasingly less likely that Adrian Gonzalez will end up in a Red Sox uni by Opening Day and the idea of trading Ellsbury, who stole 70 bases last season, for anyone less than Gonzalez just doesn't make sense.

The Red Sox will miss Bay's 36 homers and 119 RBI, for sure. Offense was already a concern going into this off-season and now it has, on paper, gotten weaker. Without Bay, there is no legitimate 30-100 guy on the team. Youk comes just short of it, V-Mart comes close, and we just don't know what we're going to get ouf of Papi next year. Scutaro is an offensive upgrade at shortstop over Lugo/Lowrie/Green/Alex Gonzalez and a full season of V-Mart is better than less than half of one, but good pitchers are not going to be intimidated by this lineup. In the AL East, competing with the big sticks from the Bronx, this could be a problem.

Defensively, however, the Sox have significantly improved in several positions. Cameron's defense will be better than Bay's, even if his offense is a downgrade. Scutaro is a decent defensive SS and, while not quite Alex Gonzalez with the glove, is an upgrade over Lugo, Green, and probably Lowrie too. Defense at third depends on who's playing it next year. If Lowell is traded, it will likely be Youk. Youk's better defensively as a first baseman, but mobility-wise he would be a defensive upgrade on Lowell. Catcher is one area the Red Sox did not improve on defensively and that can also be problematic. Tek's defense has taken as sharp a decline as his offense, especially when it comes to throwing out baserunners. V-Mart is an average defensive catcher at best, but his bat is what means the most to the team. I'm concerned that Francona will use Tek more than he should out of loyalty and that could hinder the Sox both offensively and defensively.

The starting rotation looks to be the strength of the team going into 2010. Lester, Beckett, and Lackey in a 3-game series--I wouldn't want to be the other team! Dice, Buch, and Wake as 4, 5, and long reliever/spot starter/depth guy is much better than, say, Penny and Smoltz. As is the nature of the beast, it's hard to say what the Sox will get out of the bullpen from year to year. They'll have to keep their Ramon Ramirezes straight, for one thing. Bard and Paps are setup and closer, but the rest can be a crapshoot. MDC hasn't been dealt anywhere yet, so he's probably back. Boof Bonser will probably fit somewhere into the 'pen and it's anyone's guess how that will work out. Oki's back as well and could either be a lefty specialist or a 7th or 8th inning guy, depending on how things go in spring training and/or the beginning of the season. A stud lefty would be nice, since they lost Wagner to Atlanta.

The 2010 team will be a good one, but the jury's out as to whether it will be a great one. A lot of that depends on actually playing the games.

LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!

Sox-Rangers Trade Fail

This can't be giving Mike Lowell any holiday cheer. First off, he rings in the new year recovering from thumb surgery. Second, the trade sending him to the Rangers for Max Ramirez got eighty-sixed yesterday, putting him in a position no player wants to be in: rejected by one team who vetoed a trade for him because of a failed physical and cast off by another team who has tried to trade him for the second off-season in a row. The former team is the Rangers and the latter, of course, is the Red Sox, who are put in an unsavory position themselves after the aborted trade.

The plan for improving defense takes a hit if Lowell is to be the starting third baseman and the plan for improving offense suffers because a roster spot is being taken up that could have been used for a big bat. Max Ramirez might have taken up a spot on the 40-man roster (perhaps catching in Pawtucket) but he also might have been flipped in a trade. Lowell, however, takes up a spot on the 25-man roster and makes trading for a bat like Gonzalez all the less likely. The Red Sox already have a DH in Big Papi and no team can afford roster space for two DHs.

Had the thumb injury not come up, an argument could be made that keeping Lowell would have been better than starting a low-power Kotchman at first and Youk at third. The bum thumb, and the fact that it was bad enough to call off that trade, changes things significantly. If the Rangers thought Lowell would be healed and ready to be productive at the start of the season, the trade would have gone through. Now, the Sox, besides having egg on their faces after the failed trade, have a real predicament on their hands as to what to do about Lowell. Cling to the pie-in-the-sky hope that both his hip and thumb will be just like new and he'll have a bounce-back season to prove the Sox wrong for trying to trade him? Continue the infield merry-go-round from last season (which, in my estimation, did more harm than good)? Release him and risk the effect such action could have on team chemistry? What a conundrum!

As much as I understand that baseball is a business, I hate to see this happening to such a pro as Mike Lowell. I hope some sort of arrangement can be reached that will minimize the negative ramifications on all parties involved. Not sure what the arrangement will be, but, thankfully, I'm not the one who has to come up with it.

LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!

Power Outage

Yes, I know that any deal involving Ellsbury and Buchholz for Adrian Gonzalez is just rumor and speculation, flavored liberally with wishful thinking, but if it comes to making that choice, the Red Sox really need to go for it. It would be tough to lose these young players, especially Ells, who has put on a show on the basepaths. However, with the loss of Jason Bay, the Sox absolutely need a power bat in the middle of that lineup. The pitching got better with the addition of Lackey and the defense improved by adding Cameron, but a successful team needs to be strong in all three areas--offense, defense, and pitching. Lack of run support just puts pressure on the pitching staff, as well as on the defense, to be perfect in every pitch, every play. There's no room for error with an offense that can't consistently put up at least 4 runs per game. By not replacing the production Bay provided, the offense is significantly weakened, especially if the Sox lose Lowell too.

There is much talk about Kotchman playing first and Youk moving over to third. Kotchman as a 1B may work on a smaller market team, but on a team that wishes to play deep into October, a 1B that can hit for power is necessary. A .280 average with HR totals in the single digits won't cut it in Boston, not at a power position like first base. John Lackey came to Boston because he wanted to win. He'll need more run support than this lineup can consistently give him. Same with the rest of the rotation.

LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!

Out in Left Field...Or Will It Be Center?

John Lackey is no longer the newest Red Sock. Tonight, the Sox agreed to a 2-year deal with OF Mike Cameron, effectively ending the comparatively brief Bay Era in front of the Green Monster. Cameron, 37 by the time the season begins, doesn't appear to have lost any of his defensive range and still has some pop in the bat, banging 24 dingers last year, albeit with a .250 average and a Bay-esque number of Ks. Seeing that he's a center fielder who has occasionally played right, it's possible that Ells could get moved to left while Cameron takes over in center. Or, with the short left field at Fenway, they could see how he feels about befriending the Monster.

This move means no Holliday shopping for the Red Sox either, but when they signed Lackey to a 5-year deal, they were headed in a different direction for left (or center) field. Now, all they need to do is resolve the Lowell trade situation and deal with the infield corners. Lowell's bat would not be too bad to keep around in the lineup, especially without Bay, and the increased time removed from hip surgery could improve his range, but it's still possible Buch gets shipped for a bat (*ahem* Adrian Gonzalez *ahem*)

LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!

Not Lacking for Pitching

So they decided to compete next year after all! The Red Sox have come to an agreement with free agent pitcher John Lackey for 5 years and somewhere in the $80 million range. While this most likely takes them out of the running for Holliday (Bay has reportedly decided to bid Boston farewell), it makes for a formidable 1-2-3 atop the rotation, with Lester, Lackey, and Beckett (I'm not yet sure in what order). This move could free up Buchholz to be shipped off to...I don't know...San Diego...for a certain power-hitting, strong-fielding first baseman. Left field and first or third base (if Lowell is indeed traded) still remain on the to-do list, but acquiring a pitcher of Lackey's caliber is a step in the right direction.

In other baseball news, one elite pitcher is traded out of the American League and another, back in. The Phillies, Blue Jays, and Mariners pulled off a blockbuster today with trading Halladay to Philly and Lee to Seattle. King Felix and Cliff Lee in the same rotation...shiver me timbers! Thank goodness the Ms are not in the AL East. I don't know who the Jays got in this deal, but Halladay and Lee are the only big names, I think.

LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!!!

Bridge to Nowhere?

Yes, it's still early in the off-season and there are still deals to be made, but I'm not so sure I like what I've been hearing from the Red Sox suits this week. Should we really be hearing this much at all? The suits have been criticized for comments to the media (the Teixeira debacle last year) and now I'm beginning to see why. Telling the fans that next year will be a "bridge" year is not going to sell a lot of marked-up tickets now, is it? Which bridge do they have in mind, by the way? The Tobin? Will this off-season's moves or non-moves send fans plunging into the Mystic River? Or, less melodramatically speaking, will it threaten the sellout streak?

Let's talk a little bit about the division the Red Sox must play in. Sure, you have the Jays and the O's, then the upstart Rays, but you also have a team that has a significant financial advantage over all 29 other teams as well as over twice as many championships as even the winner of the second most World Series rings. We all know who that team is. The Yankees and the Rays each pose very different challenges to the Red Sox. The Yankees have the resources to have an all-star at virtually every position. They're the mansion that's out of place in the middle-class neighborhood. The Red Sox have a lot of resources too, especially compared to the Rays, Pirates, Royals, and other small-market teams, but the Yankees even dwarf the Red Sox payroll. The Yankees have a juggernaut offense and now some pretty good pitching too. Mariano Rivera's arm is age-proof. The Rays have young, athletic players like Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and Ben Zobrist, a premiere power hitter in Carlos Pena and a very talented young pitching staff. Injuries and the pressures of having to follow up a phenomenal 2008 season caught up with the Rays in 2009, but I have no doubt they will contend next year and as long as those talented players are still on the team and still contributing like they have been.

What does all this mean for the Red Sox? For one, that an offense that replaces Mike Lowell's bat with that of Casey Kotchman (one of the rumors floating around) and lacks either Bay or Holliday in left field looks like a 80-85 win max team that could finish in 3rd or 4th place. Add Bay (or possibly Holliday) and Beltre (provided Fenway improves his hitting) and you get some improvement, but still not enough to mount much of a challenge to the Yankees. As far as challenging the Rays goes, well, we haven't picked up any defensive catchers yet, have we? They're stuck with another year of Tek due to putting that player option in the deal he signed last year and what player wouldn't turn $3M down? V-Mart has a great bat, but defensively he isn't much better than Tek, except for the fact that he can catch Wake. Max Ramirez (is it just me or are the Red Sox really into collecting Ramirezes?) should the trade go through, is also weak defensively.

If the Red Sox were in the AL Central, they might stand a chance with a mediocre offense, but we can't just pluck Boston out of Massachusetts and drop it somewhere in the midwest. If so, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Toronto would surely follow suit! The Yankees would get lonely over there with no one left to play and they'd pluck New York City out of New York and it would defeat the purpose entirely. The Big Apple just wouldn't look the same sitting in the middle of Iowa!

The only way the Red Sox can give the Yankees some serious competition is with a bat like Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of the order (and the glove that comes with that bat is not bad either) or if a bat is absolutely out of the question, an arm like Roy Halladay or Felix Hernandez at the head of the rotation. I have questions about Beckett coming into this year. Last year was a mixed bag; he won 17 games, but had some real problems with home runs late in the season, as well as a slow start early on. Lester is almost ready to be a true #1 starter (let's put him at a 1.5). Buchholz has shown he has the potential to be great, but I'm still seeing the shakiness. Daisuke--he should be better than last year (he'd BETTER be!) and Wake is Wake. Harden would have been a nice pickup, had the Rangers not beat them to it. Duchsherer is another possible pickup. They got Bonser, but that ERA north of 5 isn't convincing me of anything other then Penny 2.0. Dare we hope Wake finds the fountain of youth in the off-season?

Come on, Red Sox front office! Ditch the bridge and compete next season. The AL East race isn't the same without the Red Sox in the middle of it. If not for the fans, do it for the young core of the team, whose prime years you don't want to waste waiting for some prospects who may never pan out.

LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!

Scoot Over

The Great Boston-Toronto Shortstop Swap is complete: Alex "Gonzo" Gonzalez to the Blue Jays and Marco "Scoot" Scutaro to the Red Sox. Pedey, I guess you're staying put at second, but thanks for the offer!

Scutaro, 34, is coming off a career year where he hit .282 with a .379 OBP and .409 slugging. He knocked 12 dingers and 60 RBI. Ok, so he's no Hanley Ramirez, but with Jose Iglesias waiting in the wings, he'll suffice as a stopgap. The swap with Toronto wasn't a trade, so to speak, as both Gonzalez and Scutaro were free agent pickups, but Theo Epstein & Co believe Scoots will provide a better OBP and a little more pop from the shortstop position while they wait for Iglesias to develop on the farm.

With next year's shortstop settled, the Sox must now turn their attention to left field and beyond. I hope they come to an agreement with Jason Bay, as he has shown he can hit in the AL East to the tune of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI. He has his drawbacks, such as defense and high number of strikeouts, but the Sox won two World Series with Manny's defense! Bay's bat isn't quite Manny's, but it gets the job done most of the time. Holliday is a decent alternative to Bay, but he's still unproven in the AL (especially the AL East) and his agent is none other than baseball's Beelzebub, Scott Boras. Beyond Bay, the Sox need another big bat that can strike fear in an opposing pitcher. Adrian Gonzalez, who would fit that bill perfectly, is sounding less and less likely and Miguel Cabrera comes with a hefty load of off-field baggage. The lineup as it is doesn't scare anyone and is streakier than most. It's going to be tough to fill that gaping hole, but in order to compete in the division they're in, it has to be done.

Starting pitching raises an interesting question. Is a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buchholz and Wakefield "good enough" to get the Sox where they want to go next year? What kind of year will Beckett have? Last year for him was a mixed bag and the last really outstanding year he had was 2007. Jon Lester has just about eclipsed him as the staff ace. The Sox have been linked to Halladay in recent weeks, but a deal for Halladay would make a deal for a big bat all but impossible. There are only so many chips on the farm. Perhaps they should take a gamble on Rich Harden. I know, I know, Smoltz and Penny didn't blow 'em away last year, but Harden has had success in the AL while Smoltz and Penny had only ever pitched in the NL. When the team's biggest need is offense, perhaps this would make the most sense. Still, it's tempting to think about a rotation with Halladay and Lester as the 1 and 2.

The winter meetings are next week...

LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!!