The Red Sox offseason so far has been a puzzling one. On one hand, they loaded up on offense by signing both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. On the other hand, they waded in the pool of mediocrity when building their pitching rotation. After failing to top the Chicago Cubs' offer to sign Jon Lester (and perhaps souring negotiations with him by lowballing him last March, then trading him to Oakland at the deadline), they loaded up on mid-rotation arms, leaving a gaping hole at the top.
Of the arms they did add, Porcello has the most potential of roughly approximating an ace. He had his best season yet in 2014, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.231 WHIP. He's 26 years old, heading into his prime years. Still, expecting him to lead a rotation at this point in his career is downright unfair. He's a newcomer to the team and the pressure-cooker market that is New England. In Detroit, he was a mid-back rotation starter by virtue of being on the same team as Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander. He has more years of MLB experience than your average 26-year-old, since he broke into the bigs at the tender age of 20 in 2009. However, he would benefit from being the number 2 guy instead of the guy who is relied upon to stop a losing streak or start the first game of a hypothetical playoff series.
The guys behind Porcello, including Justin Masterson, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, and the enigmatic Clay Buchholz don't inspire a wealth of confidence. Masterson is coming off of a horrific season in which his ERA was in the high fives. Wade Miley has been up and down and recently recorded an ERA in the fours playing for a National League team. Joe Kelly is a back of the rotation type, as we saw in the two months after the deadline. That brings us to the most maddening pitcher the Red Sox have since the departure of Daisuke Matsuzaka. When Buchholz is good, he is very, very good. When he is bad, as he was last year, it's painful to watch. Then there is keeping him off the DL, which is a challenge unto itself. He has not shown enough year-to-year consistency to be counted on to lead the rotation.
James Shields is still available, but his asking price is sky-high given his age and his tendency to be a flyball pitcher. Jordan Zimmerman and Doug Fister would be an upgrade on the current rotation, but the Nationals have no pressing need to trade them, unless they want to clear salary. Therefore, they have all the leverage and can ask for the moon, the stars, and a couple of planets thrown in for good measure. Bringing Jon Lester back was the Red Sox' best chance at building a strong rotation for 2015 without sacrificing the team's best prospects.
The rest of the AL East is not looking all that spectacular. The Rays still have a higher-ceiling rotation than the Red Sox, but they lost quite a few offensive players this winter. The Orioles have lost a few stars of their own and they haven't upgraded their rotation either. The Blue Jays have had an offseason similar to the Red Sox, loading up on offense while not improving much on the rotation. The Yankees have Tanaka, if he's healthy, as well as Pineda. However, the rest of the rotation stacks up pretty evenly with that of the Sox.
However "meh" the AL East looks, the Central and West could easily crush any dreams the Red Sox might have of playing deep into October should they slug their way through a bottom-heavy rotation to win the division or sneak into a Wild Card berth. The 2005-esque rotation could make them a one-and-done candidate, especially in the expanded Wild Card era where one game decides who advances to the division series.
Is it really fair to the offense to expect them to pick up the slack from a so-so pitching rotation? If the Red Sox bats feel like they have to put up 3 or 4 runs every night, they will start pressing, which rarely produces good results. The Red Sox offense spent pretty much all of 2014 pressing, particularly the multiple rookies expected to carry their weight. We saw where that got them, even early in the season, when the pitching was usually very good. If the rotation overperforms, a la 2013, they have a chance to return to October baseball. However, there is just as much, if not more, potential for disaster with as many question marks as the Red Sox have toeing the rubber. An ace may only pitch every five games, but he takes some pressure off of the rest of the rotation and gives the offense a bit of a breather.
Saturday, January 31, 2015
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Bitching About The Pitching
It's official. Jon Lester is a Chicago Cub now. I wish him all the best and if he can bring a championship to the Cubs, the Windy City could very well be renamed Lestertown. I don't begrudge his decision. After all, it's not like he signed with the Yankees. I still respect him and what he did for the Red Sox while he was here, helping them win two World Series. That being said, I'm sure going to miss him and I sure as hell wish he were the Red Sox' 2015 Opening Day starter.
As of now, it's anyone's guess who takes the hill on Opening Day because this rotation has no leader. Buchholz may be the longest tenured member, but trying to predict which version of him the Red Sox will get in 2015 is a fool's errand. Someone with such a high ceiling and such a low floor cannot be expected to lead this rotation. After losing out on Lester, the Sox went out and collected a glut of #3 starters in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson. Out of the three, I have the highest hopes for Porcello, but he's a #2 at the very most and more conservatively, a #3 on a team that expects to contend for a championship.
If the 2013 and 2014 World Series taught us anything it is that the team who wins it all has an ace who can end the game for the other team. For the 2013 Red Sox, that was Jon Lester. For the 2014 Giants, it was Madison Bumgarner. Once Bumgarner toed the rubber in Game 7, it was all over for the Royals. He was the difference in a hard-fought series. The Royals simply did not have a pitcher that could shut down the opposition like Bumgarner did for the Giants. Expecting the Red Sox to go from worst to first to worst to first again is hardly realistic, but if you're building a team with championship aspirations, you need that stopper. It's amazing that the Royals got as far as they did without a Bumgarner-esque pitcher of their own.
When the Red Sox picked up both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, two of the best free agent hitters on the market, in late November, it appeared they were ready to go all in for 2015. Of course, landing Lester was far from a sure thing, especially since they traded him at the deadline. However, since Lester is no longer an option, I was hoping they would trade for more of a top of the rotation guy and not a set of mid-rotation arms. Three #3s do not make a #1. It's good to have depth to avoid absolute disaster on the back end, but putting the burden on a Porcello, a Miley, or a Masterson to lead the rotation is just not fair. Porcello, at 25 could surprise us all and become a Bumgarner 2.0, but having to adjust to the AL East won't do him any favors. Miley will have an even bigger adjustment to make, coming from the pitcher's park haven that was the NL West. Masterson is coming off a truly dreadful season and looks like more of a reliever than a starter. Joe Kelly is a good, solid #4.
With Lester out of the picture, who should they target to lead the rotation?
1. Jordan Zimmermann: He would be my first choice, providing he doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie Betts and preferably not Bogaerts or Swihart either. With the Nats planning on competing, it's going to take a blue chip to land Zimm, even if he's a one-year rental. Even though he comes from the NL, he has enough talent to take a chance on him.
2. Johnny Cueto: Another potential ace coming from the NL who might command too high a prospect haul and comes with an injury history. However, if he's healthy and doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie, Xander, or Blake, he's worth it.
3. Max Scherzer: This one falls under pipe dream because it will require stupid money. If they couldn't pony up for their home-grown ace, fat chance they shell out the king's ransom for Scherzer.
4. James Shields: He's getting long in the tooth and his performance in the World Series was a huge red flag, but he's a veteran presence among youngsters and won't cost as much as Lester or Scherzer and no prospects have to be given up to get him. He's more of a #2 and his best days might be behind him. Still, he's durable and for 2015 and maybe 2016 he can be that veteran presence at the front of the rotation.
5. Cole Hamels: His numbers against the AL are a huge red flag, especially if the Phillies are commanding the best prospects for him. The Red Sox don't play enough interleague games to take the chance here.
6. Doug Fister: Like Shields, he's more of a #2. He's also a 1-year rental. However, he's more capable of leading a rotation than any of the current Red Sox starters.
The rest of the offseason is going to be interesting, seeing what else, if anything, the Red Sox do to improve the rotation. If they stand pat, we're looking at a third or fourth place team. It's better than last place, but it's not going to make them competitive.
As of now, it's anyone's guess who takes the hill on Opening Day because this rotation has no leader. Buchholz may be the longest tenured member, but trying to predict which version of him the Red Sox will get in 2015 is a fool's errand. Someone with such a high ceiling and such a low floor cannot be expected to lead this rotation. After losing out on Lester, the Sox went out and collected a glut of #3 starters in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson. Out of the three, I have the highest hopes for Porcello, but he's a #2 at the very most and more conservatively, a #3 on a team that expects to contend for a championship.
If the 2013 and 2014 World Series taught us anything it is that the team who wins it all has an ace who can end the game for the other team. For the 2013 Red Sox, that was Jon Lester. For the 2014 Giants, it was Madison Bumgarner. Once Bumgarner toed the rubber in Game 7, it was all over for the Royals. He was the difference in a hard-fought series. The Royals simply did not have a pitcher that could shut down the opposition like Bumgarner did for the Giants. Expecting the Red Sox to go from worst to first to worst to first again is hardly realistic, but if you're building a team with championship aspirations, you need that stopper. It's amazing that the Royals got as far as they did without a Bumgarner-esque pitcher of their own.
When the Red Sox picked up both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, two of the best free agent hitters on the market, in late November, it appeared they were ready to go all in for 2015. Of course, landing Lester was far from a sure thing, especially since they traded him at the deadline. However, since Lester is no longer an option, I was hoping they would trade for more of a top of the rotation guy and not a set of mid-rotation arms. Three #3s do not make a #1. It's good to have depth to avoid absolute disaster on the back end, but putting the burden on a Porcello, a Miley, or a Masterson to lead the rotation is just not fair. Porcello, at 25 could surprise us all and become a Bumgarner 2.0, but having to adjust to the AL East won't do him any favors. Miley will have an even bigger adjustment to make, coming from the pitcher's park haven that was the NL West. Masterson is coming off a truly dreadful season and looks like more of a reliever than a starter. Joe Kelly is a good, solid #4.
With Lester out of the picture, who should they target to lead the rotation?
1. Jordan Zimmermann: He would be my first choice, providing he doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie Betts and preferably not Bogaerts or Swihart either. With the Nats planning on competing, it's going to take a blue chip to land Zimm, even if he's a one-year rental. Even though he comes from the NL, he has enough talent to take a chance on him.
2. Johnny Cueto: Another potential ace coming from the NL who might command too high a prospect haul and comes with an injury history. However, if he's healthy and doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie, Xander, or Blake, he's worth it.
3. Max Scherzer: This one falls under pipe dream because it will require stupid money. If they couldn't pony up for their home-grown ace, fat chance they shell out the king's ransom for Scherzer.
4. James Shields: He's getting long in the tooth and his performance in the World Series was a huge red flag, but he's a veteran presence among youngsters and won't cost as much as Lester or Scherzer and no prospects have to be given up to get him. He's more of a #2 and his best days might be behind him. Still, he's durable and for 2015 and maybe 2016 he can be that veteran presence at the front of the rotation.
5. Cole Hamels: His numbers against the AL are a huge red flag, especially if the Phillies are commanding the best prospects for him. The Red Sox don't play enough interleague games to take the chance here.
6. Doug Fister: Like Shields, he's more of a #2. He's also a 1-year rental. However, he's more capable of leading a rotation than any of the current Red Sox starters.
The rest of the offseason is going to be interesting, seeing what else, if anything, the Red Sox do to improve the rotation. If they stand pat, we're looking at a third or fourth place team. It's better than last place, but it's not going to make them competitive.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Panda AND Hanley? Can They Pitch?
I could hardly believe what I was reading this morning when I saw on my facebook news feed that the Red Sox have reached agreements with both Pablo "Panda" Sandoval and erstwhile Sox farmhand turned superstar Hanley Ramirez. Part of me is thrilled to have two huge impact bats joining an offense-starved team. Part of me is wondering, is this the 2010-2011 offseason all over again? Still another part of me is wondering, what about the pitching?
This being November 24, the offseason is far from over, so there is plenty of time and still plenty of $$$ to add to the pitching staff. When you go all in with guys like Panda and Hanley, however, it makes little sense not to add an elite starting pitcher (or two) to a currently laughable rotation. Signing Lester (or Scherzer) is just about mandatory now, as is bringing aboard a #2 starter that is not a steep drop-off from #1.
It's obvious that Panda will play third base, but what isn't so obvious is where Hanley Ramirez will play. Hanley started his career in the Red Sox system and was traded to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2005. He has played most of his career at shortstop, but the Red Sox have a promising young shortstop in Xander Bogaerts. While Bogaerts struggled for much of the year, he finished strong and it would be premature to give up on him as a shortstop. It's possible Hanley could move to the outfield to pave the way for a Yoenis Cespedes trade. When Big Papi calls it a career, Hanley could move to DH.
This offseason just got real...
This being November 24, the offseason is far from over, so there is plenty of time and still plenty of $$$ to add to the pitching staff. When you go all in with guys like Panda and Hanley, however, it makes little sense not to add an elite starting pitcher (or two) to a currently laughable rotation. Signing Lester (or Scherzer) is just about mandatory now, as is bringing aboard a #2 starter that is not a steep drop-off from #1.
It's obvious that Panda will play third base, but what isn't so obvious is where Hanley Ramirez will play. Hanley started his career in the Red Sox system and was traded to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2005. He has played most of his career at shortstop, but the Red Sox have a promising young shortstop in Xander Bogaerts. While Bogaerts struggled for much of the year, he finished strong and it would be premature to give up on him as a shortstop. It's possible Hanley could move to the outfield to pave the way for a Yoenis Cespedes trade. When Big Papi calls it a career, Hanley could move to DH.
This offseason just got real...
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Bring Back Jonny!
If the Red Sox hope to compete next year, their top priority needs to be signing Jon Lester. Max Scherzer is out there as well and is considered a better pitcher than Lester--the top free-agent pitching prize on the market. He presents a bigger risk, however, as he has yet to make the transition from power pitcher to finesse pitcher and he has not played in a market like Boston. Lester has made the transition and he's spent all but two months of his career in Boston. Even though he's a year older than Scherzer, he is worth a long term (six-year) deal in the $150m range. I would certainly not be upset if the Red Sox sign Scherzer to a long-term deal, but I think they would be wiser to turn to the guy they know and they've watched develop.
As it stands right now, the Red Sox need two pitchers at the top of the rotation. Lester, should they be smart and pony up the $$$ and the years for him, solves the #1 slot, but who is #2? A free agent? Trade? There are a lot of nice options on the trade market, but none of them, short of the pipe dream of trading for Chris Sale, are at the level of Lester. Hamels is close, but his numbers in limited time against the AL have been abysmal. He would also cost a big prospect haul (Don't trade Mookie!). Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos of the Reds have been mentioned, as have Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross of the Padres. The Red Sox need reliable pitchers atop the rotation because Joe Kelly is a #3 at the very best and who knows what we'll get out of Clay Buchholz. Then, we have the assorted flotsam and jetsam that toed the rubber in August and September to fight for the #5 spot. Getting that #1, however is the first step.
As it stands right now, the Red Sox need two pitchers at the top of the rotation. Lester, should they be smart and pony up the $$$ and the years for him, solves the #1 slot, but who is #2? A free agent? Trade? There are a lot of nice options on the trade market, but none of them, short of the pipe dream of trading for Chris Sale, are at the level of Lester. Hamels is close, but his numbers in limited time against the AL have been abysmal. He would also cost a big prospect haul (Don't trade Mookie!). Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos of the Reds have been mentioned, as have Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross of the Padres. The Red Sox need reliable pitchers atop the rotation because Joe Kelly is a #3 at the very best and who knows what we'll get out of Clay Buchholz. Then, we have the assorted flotsam and jetsam that toed the rubber in August and September to fight for the #5 spot. Getting that #1, however is the first step.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Crowned Royals
If you'd have asked anyone at the beginning of the season who would be representing the American League in the 2014 World Series, how many would have picked the Kansas City Royals? Even in the eighth inning of the AL Wild Card game they looked like a long shot, down 7-3 to the A's with Lester on the mound. Something happened in that eighth inning, however, that flipped on a switch that has yet to be flipped off. The Royals wreaked havoc on the basepaths, rallied to tie the game, and won it in extra innings. This set off a chain of events that had the A's, Angels, and Orioles dazed, their mouths hanging open as if to say "Wha happened?" The Orioles, coming straight off their dismantling of the Detroit Tigers, looked poised to make the ALCS a hard-fought series, but the Royals stunned them too.
For fans of Kansas City's blue man baseball group, this playoff appearance, let alone World Series appearance, is long overdue. In 1985, when much of the young roster wasn't yet born, the Royals defeated the Cardinals in the Fall Classic 4 games to 3. If the Cards can extricate themselves from the Giants' October magic, The Missouri Series would have a long-awaited sequel. However, the Giants in the 2010s have been an extremely dangerous team in October, with two previous postseasons of unreal playoff mojo. Can they match the special post-season [barbecue] sauce that Kansas City is cooking up?
If it is indeed the Giants meeting the Royals for the 2014 Fall Classic, it will be the first time in a non-shortened season (of at least 154 games) that neither of the two teams meeting in the World Series won at least 90 games in the regular season. The Royals went 89-73; the Giants went 88-74. Even in the strike-shortened 1995 season (144 games), the Braves won 90 and the Indians won 100. In the Wild Card era, two Wild Card teams have met in the World Series only once before, in 2002, when the Angels beat the Giants 4 games to 3.
Five years ago, the Royals and Orioles were at the bottom of the AL heap. To see those two teams in this year's ALCS is a testament to greater parity in baseball. Player development is in and big spending on free agents on the back nine of their careers is out. That's not to say that teams in transition such as the Red Sox should rely exclusively on youngsters and prospects. That makes for a long rebuilding process, which would send ticket sales, merchandise sales, and NESN ratings plummeting. It just doesn't play in the New England sports market. The Red Sox need a balance of pricey vets and talented youngsters and therein lies the challenge.
For fans of Kansas City's blue man baseball group, this playoff appearance, let alone World Series appearance, is long overdue. In 1985, when much of the young roster wasn't yet born, the Royals defeated the Cardinals in the Fall Classic 4 games to 3. If the Cards can extricate themselves from the Giants' October magic, The Missouri Series would have a long-awaited sequel. However, the Giants in the 2010s have been an extremely dangerous team in October, with two previous postseasons of unreal playoff mojo. Can they match the special post-season [barbecue] sauce that Kansas City is cooking up?
If it is indeed the Giants meeting the Royals for the 2014 Fall Classic, it will be the first time in a non-shortened season (of at least 154 games) that neither of the two teams meeting in the World Series won at least 90 games in the regular season. The Royals went 89-73; the Giants went 88-74. Even in the strike-shortened 1995 season (144 games), the Braves won 90 and the Indians won 100. In the Wild Card era, two Wild Card teams have met in the World Series only once before, in 2002, when the Angels beat the Giants 4 games to 3.
Five years ago, the Royals and Orioles were at the bottom of the AL heap. To see those two teams in this year's ALCS is a testament to greater parity in baseball. Player development is in and big spending on free agents on the back nine of their careers is out. That's not to say that teams in transition such as the Red Sox should rely exclusively on youngsters and prospects. That makes for a long rebuilding process, which would send ticket sales, merchandise sales, and NESN ratings plummeting. It just doesn't play in the New England sports market. The Red Sox need a balance of pricey vets and talented youngsters and therein lies the challenge.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Let's Go...Royals?
With apologies to Lorde...
My Red Sox are staying home
And the Nats got taken out by the Giants
I'm not really fond of Buck
And the Cards just made the World Series last year
Chorus:
So now I'm all about Hosmer, Shields, Lorenzo Cain, Greg Holland
Gordon, Butler, Dyson, Vargas, Guthrie
Behind the plate, they've got Salvador Perez
Now they're up two to none--That's what speed do, extra-inning baseball
Cain is able, two games from the World Series
Been fun to watch, they haven't been there since '85
This month I root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL pennant (pennant)
The fall classic's in your reach
So beat the O's, the O's, the O's, the O's
And then win the World Series
The Royals won the first Wild Card
They put the drop on the Oakland A's and Jon Lester
Took the Angels down in three
Then they beat the O's, there in Charm City
Chorus
For October, they're my team
They suffered so many bad seasons
Now it's their time to shine, it stands to reason
To root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL Pennant (pennant)
The Fall Classic's in your reach
So beat the O's the O's the O's the O's
And then win the World Series.
My Red Sox are staying home
And the Nats got taken out by the Giants
I'm not really fond of Buck
And the Cards just made the World Series last year
Chorus:
So now I'm all about Hosmer, Shields, Lorenzo Cain, Greg Holland
Gordon, Butler, Dyson, Vargas, Guthrie
Behind the plate, they've got Salvador Perez
Now they're up two to none--That's what speed do, extra-inning baseball
Cain is able, two games from the World Series
Been fun to watch, they haven't been there since '85
This month I root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL pennant (pennant)
The fall classic's in your reach
So beat the O's, the O's, the O's, the O's
And then win the World Series
The Royals won the first Wild Card
They put the drop on the Oakland A's and Jon Lester
Took the Angels down in three
Then they beat the O's, there in Charm City
Chorus
For October, they're my team
They suffered so many bad seasons
Now it's their time to shine, it stands to reason
To root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL Pennant (pennant)
The Fall Classic's in your reach
So beat the O's the O's the O's the O's
And then win the World Series.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Closing the Book on 2014
I'm sorry I haven't blogged in awhile. I'd drafted some posts, but canned them because they were too knee-jerk and too negative. Now that the season is [mercifully] over, here are my more calm and rational thoughts on 2014 and how the Red Sox can improve for 2015 and beyond.
The 2014 season served as a reminder that exceedingly few prospects transform into legitimate major-leaguers overnight. Even Mike Trout, the poster boy for seamless transition to the big-time, had his struggles at the beginning. Trout's struggles were very brief and his meteoric ascension into superstardom has set the bar impossibly high for prospects around the game. For the sake of this Red Sox blog, we will focus the two prospects that the team attempted to lean heavily on going into the season: Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
For Bradley, who struggled at the plate with limited time in the majors in 2013, he was supposed to be the future in center field--an elite defender with a decent bat that could soften the blow of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to "the dark side". Bradley consistently impressed with his glove, once throwing a ball over the center field wall while standing on home plate, but struggled mightily with the bat, hovering over the Mendoza line all season. For a brief time in July, he looked like he was starting to turn it around, only to return to business as usual for the remainder of the season, even after being sent down to Pawtucket to work on his swing.
Xander Bogaerts had a far more favorable introduction to the Show at the end of the 2013 season and into the post-season, eventually supplanting Will Middlebrooks at third base. He was an impact player when the lights were brightest and looked destined to follow through on the gargantuan potential he was thought to have possessed. Through the early days of the 2014 season, he continued to show promise with the bat, even as he struggled playing shortstop. His defensive struggles at one of the most important defensive positions in the game prompted the Red Sox to make an emergency call to a still-unsigned Stephen Drew. Xander was moved back to third base and Drew's long layoff proved lethal for his lumber.
Around that time, Xander had begun sliding into a slump that no one could have seen coming. He had absolutely vanished at the plate while still dealing with some defensive struggles, leading some fans and media to believe that maybe the hype and pressure to perform in Boston was too much for him after all. How else to explain the baffling disappearance of his bat? The slump was so prolonged that, once Bradley was sent down to Pawtucket, it was fair to wonder whether Bogaerts would follow suit. He never did and his slump continued until mid-August, when he was plunked in the helmet by a pitch and was placed on the 7-day concussion DL. When he re-emerged in the final days of the month, his bat began to register a pulse. The days of rest while on the DL appeared to have been the best thing to happen to him all season, giving him a week away from the game to recoup and regroup. He finished the season on a strong note, batting .313 in September.
The story of the 2014 Red Sox rookies wasn't all about the struggles, however. Brock Holt made a case to be a regular in the lineup when he hit .348 in April after being cut from the major-league squad in favor of Jonathan Herrerra leading up to opening day. His second half saw a rather steep drop-off, but he was the Red Sox' most versatile player and projects more as a super-utility player than a starter.
Mookie Betts wasn't even on the radar in 2013, but he tore up the upper minors in 2014, leading to his first call-up in late June. He had another brief call-up before he was up for good in August. Betts ended the year hitting .291 with 5 HR and 18 RBI, spending his last two weeks playing second in place of the injured Dustin Pedroia. Second base is his natural position, where he is blocked by Pedroia. The 2015 outfield is crowded with Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Betts. Some of those outfielders could be traded and, unfortunately, the most attractive trade chip is the charismatic Mookie, whose style of play is reminiscent of the World Championship 2013 team. It would be painful to trade such a talented and likeable guy. If the reward is right, however (and it would have to be a much-needed #1 or #2 starter or middle-of-the-order bat) such a trade might be a necessary sacrifice (think Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2006).
As for the starting rotation, it would be a gross understatement to say that a lot of things changed from Opening Day to September 28. Gone are Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront. The August and September rotation included the likes of enigmatic Clay Buchholz, trade return Joe Kelly, the Buchholz-esque Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo. Save for a strong performance here and there, it was a rotation of opposing teams' dreams and Red Sox fans' nightmares.
Ironically it was Webster, who, at times looked petrified on a major-league mound, who finished the season the strongest. De La Rosa, as a consequence of being used as a starter early in the season, showed signs of dead arm as the season ended. Workman and Ranaudo might be better off in the bullpen. Joe Kelly looks like a solid mid-back end starter. We know Buchholz is sticking around, for better or worse, unless he is surprisingly dealt in a buy-low trade. What is missing are two legitimate front-line starters and that's where the Red Sox have their work cut out for them, especially if they want to avoid giving out long contracts to pitchers over 30. Jon Lester coming back is a longshot, especially if he pitches the Oakand A's deep into October. Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will also cost a bundle in money and years. James Shields is a few years older and likely less expensive, therefore being the most likely Red Sox target.
The Red Sox made some big gambles that backfired spectacularly on them this year. They gambled on rookies to replace free-agency losses. They threw a monkey wrench into clubhouse chemistry by signing AJ Pierzynski. They relied too heavily on guys like Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino who both had career years in 2013. While Nava recovered from his early season slump, Victorino just couldn't stay on the field. Pedey stayed on the field, but battled yet another secret injury, to the detriment of his batting line. Napoli also battled nagging injuries all over his body that caused him to miss games here and there. The starting pitching, led by Lester and Lackey, kept the team in the game more often than not in the first half, only to have the offense let them down game after game.
The front office has a lot of work to do in getting the Red Sox back to respectability next year. There are lessons to be learned from what happened in 2014. Not all of the problems the Red Sox faced were the result of poor planning. An extreme reversal of fortune, a pendulum swinging wildly the other way after catching more than their share of breaks in 2013, played a role as well. That said, leadership roles within the organization must be at least a subject of discussion in the offseason.
A World Championship season followed by a last-place finish clouds the picture of where or whether improvements need to be made with the coaching staff, but it wouldn't hurt to consider whether, say, a new hitting coach might help maximize the potential of some of the younger players. The makeup of the team in 2013 was heavy with veterans where as the 2014 offense depended on the production of several rookies or near-rookies. A team moving in the direction of younger players has different coaching needs than a veteran-laden squad. To be fair, Greg Colbrunn dealt with health issues during the season. The role of assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez is unclear--how many major league teams have two hitting coaches? Do too many cooks spoil the soup?
The Red Sox having played their final game of 2014, I plan on rooting for my hometown team, the Nationals, in the post-season, hoping they learned their lessons from 2012 and at least make it to the NLCS this time, if not the Fall Classic. I will root for Jon Lester to pitch the A's into the ALDS, partly because there are so many former Red Sox on that team. I can take solace in the fact that neither the Yankees nor the Rays will be playing October baseball either.
The 2014 season served as a reminder that exceedingly few prospects transform into legitimate major-leaguers overnight. Even Mike Trout, the poster boy for seamless transition to the big-time, had his struggles at the beginning. Trout's struggles were very brief and his meteoric ascension into superstardom has set the bar impossibly high for prospects around the game. For the sake of this Red Sox blog, we will focus the two prospects that the team attempted to lean heavily on going into the season: Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
For Bradley, who struggled at the plate with limited time in the majors in 2013, he was supposed to be the future in center field--an elite defender with a decent bat that could soften the blow of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to "the dark side". Bradley consistently impressed with his glove, once throwing a ball over the center field wall while standing on home plate, but struggled mightily with the bat, hovering over the Mendoza line all season. For a brief time in July, he looked like he was starting to turn it around, only to return to business as usual for the remainder of the season, even after being sent down to Pawtucket to work on his swing.
Xander Bogaerts had a far more favorable introduction to the Show at the end of the 2013 season and into the post-season, eventually supplanting Will Middlebrooks at third base. He was an impact player when the lights were brightest and looked destined to follow through on the gargantuan potential he was thought to have possessed. Through the early days of the 2014 season, he continued to show promise with the bat, even as he struggled playing shortstop. His defensive struggles at one of the most important defensive positions in the game prompted the Red Sox to make an emergency call to a still-unsigned Stephen Drew. Xander was moved back to third base and Drew's long layoff proved lethal for his lumber.
Around that time, Xander had begun sliding into a slump that no one could have seen coming. He had absolutely vanished at the plate while still dealing with some defensive struggles, leading some fans and media to believe that maybe the hype and pressure to perform in Boston was too much for him after all. How else to explain the baffling disappearance of his bat? The slump was so prolonged that, once Bradley was sent down to Pawtucket, it was fair to wonder whether Bogaerts would follow suit. He never did and his slump continued until mid-August, when he was plunked in the helmet by a pitch and was placed on the 7-day concussion DL. When he re-emerged in the final days of the month, his bat began to register a pulse. The days of rest while on the DL appeared to have been the best thing to happen to him all season, giving him a week away from the game to recoup and regroup. He finished the season on a strong note, batting .313 in September.
The story of the 2014 Red Sox rookies wasn't all about the struggles, however. Brock Holt made a case to be a regular in the lineup when he hit .348 in April after being cut from the major-league squad in favor of Jonathan Herrerra leading up to opening day. His second half saw a rather steep drop-off, but he was the Red Sox' most versatile player and projects more as a super-utility player than a starter.
Mookie Betts wasn't even on the radar in 2013, but he tore up the upper minors in 2014, leading to his first call-up in late June. He had another brief call-up before he was up for good in August. Betts ended the year hitting .291 with 5 HR and 18 RBI, spending his last two weeks playing second in place of the injured Dustin Pedroia. Second base is his natural position, where he is blocked by Pedroia. The 2015 outfield is crowded with Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Betts. Some of those outfielders could be traded and, unfortunately, the most attractive trade chip is the charismatic Mookie, whose style of play is reminiscent of the World Championship 2013 team. It would be painful to trade such a talented and likeable guy. If the reward is right, however (and it would have to be a much-needed #1 or #2 starter or middle-of-the-order bat) such a trade might be a necessary sacrifice (think Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2006).
As for the starting rotation, it would be a gross understatement to say that a lot of things changed from Opening Day to September 28. Gone are Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront. The August and September rotation included the likes of enigmatic Clay Buchholz, trade return Joe Kelly, the Buchholz-esque Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo. Save for a strong performance here and there, it was a rotation of opposing teams' dreams and Red Sox fans' nightmares.
Ironically it was Webster, who, at times looked petrified on a major-league mound, who finished the season the strongest. De La Rosa, as a consequence of being used as a starter early in the season, showed signs of dead arm as the season ended. Workman and Ranaudo might be better off in the bullpen. Joe Kelly looks like a solid mid-back end starter. We know Buchholz is sticking around, for better or worse, unless he is surprisingly dealt in a buy-low trade. What is missing are two legitimate front-line starters and that's where the Red Sox have their work cut out for them, especially if they want to avoid giving out long contracts to pitchers over 30. Jon Lester coming back is a longshot, especially if he pitches the Oakand A's deep into October. Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will also cost a bundle in money and years. James Shields is a few years older and likely less expensive, therefore being the most likely Red Sox target.
The Red Sox made some big gambles that backfired spectacularly on them this year. They gambled on rookies to replace free-agency losses. They threw a monkey wrench into clubhouse chemistry by signing AJ Pierzynski. They relied too heavily on guys like Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino who both had career years in 2013. While Nava recovered from his early season slump, Victorino just couldn't stay on the field. Pedey stayed on the field, but battled yet another secret injury, to the detriment of his batting line. Napoli also battled nagging injuries all over his body that caused him to miss games here and there. The starting pitching, led by Lester and Lackey, kept the team in the game more often than not in the first half, only to have the offense let them down game after game.
The front office has a lot of work to do in getting the Red Sox back to respectability next year. There are lessons to be learned from what happened in 2014. Not all of the problems the Red Sox faced were the result of poor planning. An extreme reversal of fortune, a pendulum swinging wildly the other way after catching more than their share of breaks in 2013, played a role as well. That said, leadership roles within the organization must be at least a subject of discussion in the offseason.
A World Championship season followed by a last-place finish clouds the picture of where or whether improvements need to be made with the coaching staff, but it wouldn't hurt to consider whether, say, a new hitting coach might help maximize the potential of some of the younger players. The makeup of the team in 2013 was heavy with veterans where as the 2014 offense depended on the production of several rookies or near-rookies. A team moving in the direction of younger players has different coaching needs than a veteran-laden squad. To be fair, Greg Colbrunn dealt with health issues during the season. The role of assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez is unclear--how many major league teams have two hitting coaches? Do too many cooks spoil the soup?
The Red Sox having played their final game of 2014, I plan on rooting for my hometown team, the Nationals, in the post-season, hoping they learned their lessons from 2012 and at least make it to the NLCS this time, if not the Fall Classic. I will root for Jon Lester to pitch the A's into the ALDS, partly because there are so many former Red Sox on that team. I can take solace in the fact that neither the Yankees nor the Rays will be playing October baseball either.
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