The Red Sox offseason so far has been a puzzling one. On one hand, they loaded up on offense by signing both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. On the other hand, they waded in the pool of mediocrity when building their pitching rotation. After failing to top the Chicago Cubs' offer to sign Jon Lester (and perhaps souring negotiations with him by lowballing him last March, then trading him to Oakland at the deadline), they loaded up on mid-rotation arms, leaving a gaping hole at the top.
Of the arms they did add, Porcello has the most potential of roughly approximating an ace. He had his best season yet in 2014, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.231 WHIP. He's 26 years old, heading into his prime years. Still, expecting him to lead a rotation at this point in his career is downright unfair. He's a newcomer to the team and the pressure-cooker market that is New England. In Detroit, he was a mid-back rotation starter by virtue of being on the same team as Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander. He has more years of MLB experience than your average 26-year-old, since he broke into the bigs at the tender age of 20 in 2009. However, he would benefit from being the number 2 guy instead of the guy who is relied upon to stop a losing streak or start the first game of a hypothetical playoff series.
The guys behind Porcello, including Justin Masterson, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, and the enigmatic Clay Buchholz don't inspire a wealth of confidence. Masterson is coming off of a horrific season in which his ERA was in the high fives. Wade Miley has been up and down and recently recorded an ERA in the fours playing for a National League team. Joe Kelly is a back of the rotation type, as we saw in the two months after the deadline. That brings us to the most maddening pitcher the Red Sox have since the departure of Daisuke Matsuzaka. When Buchholz is good, he is very, very good. When he is bad, as he was last year, it's painful to watch. Then there is keeping him off the DL, which is a challenge unto itself. He has not shown enough year-to-year consistency to be counted on to lead the rotation.
James Shields is still available, but his asking price is sky-high given his age and his tendency to be a flyball pitcher. Jordan Zimmerman and Doug Fister would be an upgrade on the current rotation, but the Nationals have no pressing need to trade them, unless they want to clear salary. Therefore, they have all the leverage and can ask for the moon, the stars, and a couple of planets thrown in for good measure. Bringing Jon Lester back was the Red Sox' best chance at building a strong rotation for 2015 without sacrificing the team's best prospects.
The rest of the AL East is not looking all that spectacular. The Rays still have a higher-ceiling rotation than the Red Sox, but they lost quite a few offensive players this winter. The Orioles have lost a few stars of their own and they haven't upgraded their rotation either. The Blue Jays have had an offseason similar to the Red Sox, loading up on offense while not improving much on the rotation. The Yankees have Tanaka, if he's healthy, as well as Pineda. However, the rest of the rotation stacks up pretty evenly with that of the Sox.
However "meh" the AL East looks, the Central and West could easily crush any dreams the Red Sox might have of playing deep into October should they slug their way through a bottom-heavy rotation to win the division or sneak into a Wild Card berth. The 2005-esque rotation could make them a one-and-done candidate, especially in the expanded Wild Card era where one game decides who advances to the division series.
Is it really fair to the offense to expect them to pick up the slack from a so-so pitching rotation? If the Red Sox bats feel like they have to put up 3 or 4 runs every night, they will start pressing, which rarely produces good results. The Red Sox offense spent pretty much all of 2014 pressing, particularly the multiple rookies expected to carry their weight. We saw where that got them, even early in the season, when the pitching was usually very good. If the rotation overperforms, a la 2013, they have a chance to return to October baseball. However, there is just as much, if not more, potential for disaster with as many question marks as the Red Sox have toeing the rubber. An ace may only pitch every five games, but he takes some pressure off of the rest of the rotation and gives the offense a bit of a breather.
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