Saturday, April 30, 2011

Breaking Down the Broken Offense

Prematurely called one of the best offenses in the game (does this smack of another failed declaration from just a year ago, like maybe, "run prevention"?) the 2011 Red Sox bats are instead one of the worst. Breaking it down player by player here are some of the reasons why:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (.264/.323/.462): He's been hot lately, but he's one of those hitters who is either on fire or ice cold. For a guy who needs to get on base as often as possible, there needs to be more consistency here. He's shown some power, but with his speed you want to see him on the basepaths, making a menace of himself to the opposing pitchers.

2. Dustin Pedroia (.266/.381/.372): Another "fire and ice" hitter who happens to be in "ice" mode right now. He's striking out more than usual this season, with 17 Ks in 94 ABs (18% of his ABs have resulted in strikeouts) Over his career, only 9% of his ABs have resulted in strikeouts.

3. Adrian Gonzalez (.314/.375/.461): The average is great, as is the OBP, but the power is sorely missing. Ironically, he is doing the job Ells is supposed to be doing while Ells is doing what Gonzo's supposed to be doing. Without the power that made him so sought-after by the front office, he's essentially Sean Casey with a better glove.

4. Kevin Youkilis (.213/.388/.480): Oh, Youk! That .213 is so not you! Youkilis is leading the team in strikeouts and home runs and, so it seems like he's either striking out or going yard. Boston's answer to Mark Reynolds? Say it ain't so!

5. David Ortiz (.280/.388/.415): After homering in back-to-back games to start the season, Big Papi has become a singles hitter, much like his teammate Adrian Gonzalez. The good news is that he's hitting lefties so well (.379). The bad news: He's hitting righties at only .226.

6. Jed Lowrie: (.375/.397/.578): The gaudy numbers are still there, owing to that stretch when he was absolutely raking, but he's cooled off considerably since. Another fire and ice hitter? I sure hope not. He's looking awfully anxious at the plate lately, swinging very early in the count and making easy outs. Sitting him two days in a row (last Sunday, with the off-day on Monday) seems to have done him more harm than good. The best way to cool off a hot hitter is to have him ride pine.

7. J.D. Drew (.270/.387/.381): His average is around what it has usually been during his tenure in Boston, but those strikeouts looking have to come down. Some more power from him would also be nice.

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.191/.255/.234): With numbers like that, you would hope the guy's at least good defensively. So far, that hasn't been the case for Salty. He's had some timely hits, but the rest of the stats speak for themselves.

9. Carl Crawford: (.160/.202/.234) Here's a guy who's wondering what happened to his career .294 average and .335 OBP and why he has turned into a pumpkin upon putting on the Red Sox uniform. His career numbers got him the mega-contract, and, barring some severe injury or illness, don't just disappear over the course of one off-season. As far as we know, Crawford is healthy, so his dismal offensive production so far this season is downright baffling.

10. Jason Varitek: (.111/.200/.139) Ouch! Those numbers are ugly to look at! With Salty struggling so much defensively and with some of the pitchers more comfortable throwing to Tek, the Captain has been making a lot more appearances behind (and, unfortunately, at) the plate recently. Neither catcher can throw out baserunners and neither can hit. V-Mart was no great shakes defensively, but at least he had a bat.

11. Marco Scutaro: (.189/.283/.226) This is one of the reasons why Lowrie has become the regular shortstop. Another member of the under .200 club, Scoots seems to have lost his plate discipline. often swinging at the first pitch for an easy out. He doesn't have as many at-bats, but he doesn't appear to be making the most of the ones he's getting either.

12. Mike Cameron (.185/.241/.407) That .407 slugging percentage is due to the 2 dingers he hit last night. Other than that, not much production from Cam (at-bats have been harder to come by with Papi and Drew hitting lefties better).

13. Darnell McDonald (.118/.211/.294) Again, not many at-bats, but not much production in the at-bats he does get. The defense is a considerable downgrade from Carl Crawford as well (witness last night's run-scoring error). Another factor that could be coming into play: Last year, he was a hungry career minor-leaguer, eager to make the most of every opportunity given to him. This year, he makes the team from the get-go. Not to say he doesn't try hard, but maybe the edge he had last year is not there.

There are 6 hitters on this team batting under .200. 4 of them are on the bench, but that does the team no favors when it comes to pinch-hitting. If the 1986 incarnation of Roger Clemens were facing today's team, 20 strikeouts in a game would be a walk in the park. If things don't improve with this offense, the Sox will become irrelevant well before school lets out for the summer.

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