Bitching About The Pitching

    It's official.  Jon Lester is a Chicago Cub now.  I wish him all the best and if he can bring a championship to the Cubs, the Windy City could very well be renamed Lestertown.  I don't begrudge his decision.  After all, it's not like he signed with the Yankees.   I still respect him and what he did for the Red Sox while he was here, helping them win two World Series.   That being said, I'm sure going to miss him and I sure as hell wish he were the Red Sox' 2015 Opening Day starter.  

    As of now, it's anyone's guess who takes the hill on Opening Day because this rotation has no leader.   Buchholz may be the longest tenured member, but trying to predict which version of him the Red Sox will get in 2015 is a fool's errand.  Someone with such a high ceiling and such a low floor cannot be expected to lead this rotation.   After losing out on Lester, the Sox went out and collected a glut of #3 starters in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson.  Out of the three, I have the highest hopes for Porcello, but he's a #2 at the very most and more conservatively, a #3 on a team that expects to contend for a championship.

   If the 2013 and 2014 World Series taught us anything it is that the team who wins it all has an ace who can end the game for the other team.   For the 2013 Red Sox, that was Jon Lester.   For the 2014 Giants, it was Madison Bumgarner.  Once Bumgarner toed the rubber in Game 7, it was all over for the Royals.   He was the difference in a hard-fought series.  The Royals simply did not have a pitcher that could shut down the opposition like Bumgarner did for the Giants.  Expecting the Red Sox to go from worst to first to worst to first again is hardly realistic, but if you're building a team with championship aspirations, you need that stopper.  It's amazing that the Royals got as far as they did without a Bumgarner-esque pitcher of their own. 

 When the Red Sox picked up both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, two of the best free agent hitters on the market, in late November, it appeared they were ready to go all in for 2015.   Of course, landing Lester was far from a sure thing, especially since they traded him at the deadline.   However, since Lester is no longer an option, I was hoping they would trade for more of a top of the rotation guy and not a set of mid-rotation arms.   Three #3s do not make a #1.   It's good to have depth to avoid absolute disaster on the back end, but putting the burden on a Porcello, a Miley, or a Masterson to lead the rotation is just not fair.   Porcello, at 25 could surprise us all and become a Bumgarner 2.0, but having to adjust to the AL East won't do him any favors.   Miley will have an even bigger adjustment to make, coming from the pitcher's park haven that was the NL West.   Masterson is coming off a truly dreadful season and looks like more of a reliever than a starter.   Joe Kelly is a good, solid #4.  

 With Lester out of the picture, who should they target to lead the rotation? 

  1.  Jordan Zimmermann:  He would be my first choice, providing he doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie Betts and preferably not Bogaerts or Swihart either.   With the Nats planning on competing, it's going to take a blue chip to land Zimm, even if he's a one-year rental. Even though he comes from the NL, he has enough talent to take a chance on him. 

 2.  Johnny Cueto:  Another potential ace coming from the NL who might command too high a prospect haul and comes with an injury history.  However, if he's healthy and doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie, Xander, or Blake, he's worth it.  

3.  Max Scherzer:  This one falls under pipe dream because it will require stupid money.  If they couldn't pony up for their home-grown ace, fat chance they shell out the king's ransom for Scherzer.  
  
4. James Shields:  He's getting long in the tooth and his performance in the World Series was a huge red flag, but he's a veteran presence among youngsters and won't cost as much as Lester or Scherzer and no prospects have to be given up to get him.   He's more of a #2 and his best days might be behind him.  Still, he's durable and for 2015 and maybe 2016 he can be that veteran presence at the front of the rotation.  

5. Cole Hamels:  His numbers against the AL are a huge red flag, especially if the Phillies are commanding the best prospects for him.   The Red Sox don't play enough interleague games to take the chance here. 

6. Doug Fister:  Like Shields, he's more of a #2.  He's also a 1-year rental.  However, he's more capable of leading a rotation than any of the current Red Sox starters. 

     The rest of the offseason is going to be interesting, seeing what else, if anything, the Red Sox do to improve the rotation.   If they stand pat, we're looking at a third or fourth place team.   It's better than last place, but it's not going to make them competitive.  

Panda AND Hanley? Can They Pitch?

   I could hardly believe what I was reading this morning when I saw on my facebook news feed that the Red Sox have reached agreements with both Pablo "Panda" Sandoval and erstwhile Sox farmhand turned superstar Hanley Ramirez.  Part of me is thrilled to have two huge impact bats joining an offense-starved team.  Part of me is wondering, is this the 2010-2011 offseason all over again?   Still another part of me is wondering, what about the pitching?  

  This being November 24, the offseason is far from over, so there is plenty of time and still plenty of $$$ to add to the pitching staff.   When you go all in with guys like Panda and Hanley, however, it makes little sense not to add an elite starting pitcher (or two) to a currently laughable rotation.  Signing Lester (or Scherzer) is just about mandatory now, as is bringing aboard a #2 starter that is not a steep drop-off from #1.  

   It's obvious that Panda will play third base, but what isn't so obvious is where Hanley Ramirez will play.   Hanley started his career in the Red Sox system and was traded to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2005.  He has played most of his career at shortstop, but the Red Sox have a promising young shortstop in Xander Bogaerts.  While Bogaerts struggled for much of the year, he finished strong and it would be premature to give up on him as a shortstop.  It's possible Hanley could move to the outfield to pave the way for a Yoenis Cespedes trade.  When Big Papi calls it a career, Hanley could move to DH. 

   This offseason just got real...

Bring Back Jonny!

    If the Red Sox hope to compete next year, their top priority needs to be signing Jon Lester.   Max Scherzer is out there as well and is considered a better pitcher than Lester--the top free-agent pitching prize on the market.   He presents a bigger risk, however, as he has yet to make the transition from power pitcher to finesse pitcher and he has not played in a market like Boston.   Lester has made the transition and he's spent all but two months of his career in Boston.   Even though he's a year older than Scherzer, he is worth a long term (six-year) deal in the $150m range.   I would certainly not be upset if the Red Sox sign Scherzer to a long-term deal, but I think they would be wiser to turn to the guy they know and they've watched develop. 

   As it stands right now, the Red Sox need two pitchers at the top of the rotation.  Lester, should they be smart and pony up the $$$ and the years for him, solves the #1 slot, but who is #2?   A free agent?  Trade?  There are a lot of nice options on the trade market, but none of them, short of the pipe dream of trading for Chris Sale, are at the level of Lester.  Hamels is close, but his numbers in limited time against the AL have been abysmal.   He would also cost a big prospect haul (Don't trade Mookie!).   Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos of the Reds have been mentioned, as have Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross of the Padres.  The Red Sox need reliable pitchers atop the rotation because Joe Kelly is a #3 at the very best and who knows what we'll get out of Clay Buchholz.  Then, we have the assorted flotsam and jetsam that toed the rubber in August and September to fight for the #5 spot.  Getting that #1, however is the first step.  

Crowned Royals

   If you'd have asked anyone at the beginning of the season who would be representing the American League in the 2014 World Series, how many would have picked the Kansas City Royals?   Even in the eighth inning of the AL Wild Card game they looked like a long shot, down 7-3 to the A's with Lester on the mound.   Something happened in that eighth inning, however, that flipped on a switch that has yet to be flipped off.   The Royals wreaked havoc on the basepaths, rallied to tie the game, and won it in extra innings.  This set off a chain of events that had the A's, Angels, and Orioles dazed, their mouths hanging open as if to say "Wha happened?"  The Orioles, coming straight off their dismantling of the Detroit Tigers, looked poised to make the ALCS a hard-fought series, but the Royals stunned them too.  

   For fans of Kansas City's blue man baseball group, this playoff appearance, let alone World Series appearance, is long overdue.  In 1985, when much of the young roster wasn't yet born, the Royals defeated the Cardinals in the Fall Classic 4 games to 3.   If the Cards can extricate themselves from the Giants' October magic, The Missouri Series would have a long-awaited sequel.   However, the Giants in the 2010s have been an extremely dangerous team in October, with two previous postseasons of unreal playoff mojo.   Can they match the special post-season [barbecue] sauce that Kansas City is cooking up?  

  If it is indeed the Giants meeting the Royals for the 2014 Fall Classic, it will be the first time in a non-shortened season (of at least 154 games) that neither of the two teams meeting in the World Series won at least 90 games in the regular season.  The Royals went 89-73; the Giants went 88-74.   Even in the strike-shortened 1995 season (144 games), the Braves won 90 and the Indians won 100.   In the Wild Card era, two Wild Card teams have met in the World Series only once before, in 2002, when the Angels beat the Giants 4 games to 3. 

  Five years ago, the Royals and Orioles were at the bottom of the AL heap.  To see those two teams in this year's ALCS is a testament to greater parity in baseball.   Player development is in and big spending on free agents on the back nine of their careers is out.  That's not to say that teams in transition such as the Red Sox should rely exclusively on youngsters and prospects.   That makes for a long rebuilding process, which would send ticket sales, merchandise sales, and NESN ratings plummeting.   It just doesn't play in the New England sports market.   The Red Sox need a balance of pricey vets and talented youngsters and therein lies the challenge.  

Let's Go...Royals?

    With apologies to Lorde...

       My Red Sox are staying home
       And the Nats got taken out by the Giants
       I'm not really fond of Buck
       And the Cards just made the World Series last year

       Chorus: 
       So now I'm all about Hosmer, Shields, Lorenzo Cain, Greg Holland
       Gordon, Butler, Dyson, Vargas, Guthrie
       Behind the plate, they've got Salvador Perez
       Now they're up two to none--That's what speed do, extra-inning baseball
       Cain is able, two games from the World Series
       Been fun to watch, they haven't been there since '85
       This month I root for the Royals (Royals)
       Though I still miss last year
       Gotta find a team to cheer
       Blue October's in this year
       Go win the AL pennant (pennant)
       The fall classic's in your reach
       So beat the O's, the O's, the O's, the O's
       And then win the World Series

       The Royals won the first Wild Card
       They put the drop on the Oakland A's and Jon Lester
       Took the Angels down in three
       Then they beat the O's, there in Charm City

       Chorus

       For October, they're my team
       They suffered so many bad seasons
       Now it's their time to shine, it stands to reason
       To root for the Royals (Royals)
       Though I still miss last year
       Gotta find a team to cheer
       Blue October's in this year
       Go win the AL Pennant (pennant)
       The Fall Classic's in your reach
       So beat the O's the O's the O's the O's
       And then win the World Series.

Closing the Book on 2014

  I'm sorry I haven't blogged in awhile.  I'd drafted some posts, but canned them because they were too knee-jerk and too negative.   Now that the season is [mercifully] over, here are my more calm and rational thoughts on 2014 and how the Red Sox can improve for 2015 and beyond.

   The 2014 season served as a reminder that exceedingly few prospects transform into legitimate major-leaguers overnight.   Even Mike Trout, the poster boy for seamless transition to the big-time, had his struggles at the beginning.   Trout's struggles were very brief and his meteoric ascension into superstardom has set the bar impossibly high for prospects around the game.   For the sake of this Red Sox blog, we will focus the two prospects that the team attempted to lean heavily on going into the season:  Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.

   For Bradley, who struggled at the plate with limited time in the majors in 2013, he was supposed to be the future in center field--an elite defender with a decent bat that could soften the blow of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to "the dark side".   Bradley consistently impressed with his glove, once throwing a ball over the center field wall while standing on home plate, but struggled mightily with the bat, hovering over the Mendoza line all season.  For a brief time in July, he looked like he was starting to turn it around, only to return to business as usual for the remainder of the season, even after being sent down to Pawtucket to work on his swing.

   Xander Bogaerts had a far more favorable introduction to the Show at the end of the 2013 season and into the post-season, eventually supplanting Will Middlebrooks at third base.   He was an impact player when the lights were brightest and looked destined to follow through on the gargantuan potential he was thought to have possessed.   Through the early days of the 2014 season, he continued to show promise with the bat, even as he struggled playing shortstop.   His defensive struggles at one of the most important defensive positions in the game prompted the Red Sox to make an emergency call to a still-unsigned Stephen Drew.  Xander was moved back to third base and Drew's long layoff proved lethal for his lumber.

    Around that time, Xander had begun sliding into a slump that no one could have seen coming.   He had absolutely vanished at the plate while still dealing with some defensive struggles, leading some fans and media to believe that maybe the hype and pressure to perform in Boston was too much for him after all.   How else to explain the baffling disappearance of his bat?   The slump was so prolonged that, once Bradley was sent down to Pawtucket, it was fair to wonder whether Bogaerts would follow suit.   He never did and his slump continued until mid-August, when he was plunked in the helmet by a pitch and was placed on the 7-day concussion DL.  When he re-emerged in the final days of the month, his bat began to register a pulse.   The days of rest while on the DL appeared to have been the best thing to happen to him all season, giving him a week away from the game to recoup and regroup.   He finished the season on a strong note, batting .313 in September.

    The story of the 2014 Red Sox rookies wasn't all about the struggles, however.  Brock Holt made a case to be a regular in the lineup when he hit .348 in April after being cut from the major-league squad in favor of Jonathan Herrerra leading up to opening day.   His second half saw a rather steep drop-off, but he was the Red Sox' most versatile player and projects more as a super-utility player than a starter.

     Mookie Betts wasn't even on the radar in 2013, but he tore up the upper minors in 2014, leading to his first call-up in late June.  He had another brief call-up before he was up for good in August.   Betts ended the year hitting .291 with 5 HR and 18 RBI, spending his last two weeks playing second in place of the injured Dustin Pedroia.   Second base is his natural position, where he is blocked by Pedroia.  The 2015 outfield is crowded with Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Betts.   Some of those outfielders could be traded and, unfortunately, the most attractive trade chip is the charismatic Mookie, whose style of play is reminiscent of the World Championship 2013 team.   It would be painful to trade such a talented and likeable guy.  If the reward is right, however (and it would have to be a much-needed #1 or #2 starter or middle-of-the-order bat) such a trade might be a necessary sacrifice (think Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2006).

    As for the starting rotation, it would be a gross understatement to say that a lot of things changed from Opening Day to September 28.   Gone are Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront.  The August and September rotation included the likes of enigmatic Clay Buchholz, trade return Joe Kelly, the Buchholz-esque Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo.   Save for a strong performance here and there, it was a rotation of opposing teams' dreams and Red Sox fans' nightmares.
    
     Ironically it was Webster, who, at times looked petrified on a major-league mound, who finished the season the strongest.   De La Rosa, as a consequence of being used as a starter early in the season, showed signs of dead arm as the season ended.   Workman and Ranaudo might be better off in the bullpen.  Joe Kelly looks like a solid mid-back end starter.   We know Buchholz is sticking around, for better or worse, unless he is surprisingly dealt in a buy-low trade.   What is missing are two legitimate front-line starters and that's where the Red Sox have their work cut out for them, especially if they want to avoid giving out long contracts to pitchers over 30.  Jon Lester coming back is a longshot, especially if he pitches the Oakand A's deep into October.   Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will also cost a bundle in money and years.   James Shields is a few years older and likely less expensive, therefore being the most likely Red Sox target.

      The Red Sox made some big gambles that backfired spectacularly on them this year.  They gambled on rookies to replace free-agency losses.  They threw a monkey wrench into clubhouse chemistry by signing AJ Pierzynski.  They relied too heavily on guys like Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino who both had career years in 2013.  While Nava recovered from his early season slump, Victorino just couldn't stay on the field.  Pedey stayed on the field, but battled yet another secret injury, to the detriment of his batting line.   Napoli also battled nagging injuries all over his body that caused him to miss games here and there.   The starting pitching, led by Lester and Lackey, kept the team in the game more often than not in the first half, only to have the offense let them down game after game.

     The front office has a lot of work to do in getting the Red Sox back to respectability next year.   There are lessons to be learned from what happened in 2014.  Not all of the problems the Red Sox faced were the result of poor planning.  An extreme reversal of fortune, a pendulum swinging wildly the other way after catching more than their share of breaks in 2013, played a role as well. That said, leadership roles within the organization must be at least a subject of discussion in the offseason. 

      A World Championship season followed by a last-place finish clouds the picture of where or whether improvements need to be made with the coaching staff, but it wouldn't hurt to consider whether, say, a new hitting coach might help maximize the potential of some of the younger players.   The makeup of the team in 2013 was heavy with veterans where as the 2014 offense depended on the production of several rookies or near-rookies.   A team moving in the direction of younger players has different coaching needs than a veteran-laden squad.   To be fair, Greg Colbrunn dealt with health issues during the season.   The role of assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez is unclear--how many major league teams have two hitting coaches?  Do too many cooks spoil the soup? 

     The Red Sox having played their final game of 2014, I plan on rooting for my hometown team, the Nationals, in the post-season, hoping they learned their lessons from 2012 and at least make it to the NLCS this time, if not the Fall Classic.  I will root for Jon Lester to pitch the A's into the ALDS, partly because there are so many former Red Sox on that team.   I can take solace in the fact that neither the Yankees nor the Rays will be playing October baseball either.  

It's a Sad, Sad, Sad, Sad World

   No, Lester hasn't been traded yet, but it seems all but inevitable now.   Rumors are circulating about Lackey being traded as well.   Imagine a rotation led by Clay Buchholz.  Sad and scary times indeed!   The offense is doing their usual sputtering thing, even though Xander is showing signs of improvement at the plate, if not in the field.  On the other hand, JBJ seems to have undone whatever progress he had made.   The Red Sox were annihilated by the Blue Jays yet again and have dug themselves back to 12 games under .500.   They are a worse team this year than they were in the 93-loss 2012, led by Bobby Valentine.

    If they lose 40 of the 54 games remaining, they will lose 100 games for the first time in nearly 50 years.   After winning a World Series, however improbable and fluky that win was, following it up with a 100 loss season is hard to fathom.   It's about as Jekyll and Hyde as it comes.   The current ownership may have seen three World Championships in its tenure, but it has also seen the team go from worst to first back down to worst again (and, in all likelihood, even worse than the first "worst".).   The trade deadline may very well be a fire sale leading to a long rebuilding process.   They ownership may spin a tale about quick rebuilding, but when you sell away your top pitcher, a homegrown guy at that, with no ready replacement, no "Plan B", the quick rebuild story is BS.   Sell off Lackey too?   Is the plan "Wait 'til 2020"?   Or is there a plan at all? 

    Winning the World Series last year was a great thing, but it raised expectations.   As for me, I wasn't expecting a repeat.   I was, however, expecting them to at least be competitive, or even somewhat respectable.  But this?   I was not expecting this, but maybe I should have been.    After all, the front office did some significant subtraction from the team what won it all without adding much to offset what they took away.   What kind of message did that send the team?   "Sorry, but we're not going to help you this year.  You're on your own.  Good luck with that."?

    What the Red Sox are putting out on the field now is disheartening, depressing, and a far cry from just a short year ago.   With the moves the front office seems to want to make, expect more of the same in the years to come.   I fail to see how drifting about aimlessly in the bottom of the MLB barrel will help the development of the prospects on which the Red Sox are banking so heavily.