Wednesday, July 30, 2014

It's a Sad, Sad, Sad, Sad World

   No, Lester hasn't been traded yet, but it seems all but inevitable now.   Rumors are circulating about Lackey being traded as well.   Imagine a rotation led by Clay Buchholz.  Sad and scary times indeed!   The offense is doing their usual sputtering thing, even though Xander is showing signs of improvement at the plate, if not in the field.  On the other hand, JBJ seems to have undone whatever progress he had made.   The Red Sox were annihilated by the Blue Jays yet again and have dug themselves back to 12 games under .500.   They are a worse team this year than they were in the 93-loss 2012, led by Bobby Valentine.

    If they lose 40 of the 54 games remaining, they will lose 100 games for the first time in nearly 50 years.   After winning a World Series, however improbable and fluky that win was, following it up with a 100 loss season is hard to fathom.   It's about as Jekyll and Hyde as it comes.   The current ownership may have seen three World Championships in its tenure, but it has also seen the team go from worst to first back down to worst again (and, in all likelihood, even worse than the first "worst".).   The trade deadline may very well be a fire sale leading to a long rebuilding process.   They ownership may spin a tale about quick rebuilding, but when you sell away your top pitcher, a homegrown guy at that, with no ready replacement, no "Plan B", the quick rebuild story is BS.   Sell off Lackey too?   Is the plan "Wait 'til 2020"?   Or is there a plan at all? 

    Winning the World Series last year was a great thing, but it raised expectations.   As for me, I wasn't expecting a repeat.   I was, however, expecting them to at least be competitive, or even somewhat respectable.  But this?   I was not expecting this, but maybe I should have been.    After all, the front office did some significant subtraction from the team what won it all without adding much to offset what they took away.   What kind of message did that send the team?   "Sorry, but we're not going to help you this year.  You're on your own.  Good luck with that."?

    What the Red Sox are putting out on the field now is disheartening, depressing, and a far cry from just a short year ago.   With the moves the front office seems to want to make, expect more of the same in the years to come.   I fail to see how drifting about aimlessly in the bottom of the MLB barrel will help the development of the prospects on which the Red Sox are banking so heavily.  

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Just Pay Him Already!

      If you heard the "ka-chings" that went off after every strikeout, every scoreless inning of Jon Lester's outing against the Royals today, that was the southpaw's price tag getting higher.   Lester blanked Kansas City over 8 frames, earning his tenth win and the first Red Sox sweep of an opponent since Big Papi was in Little League.   In one corner is Jon Lester, his 2.50 ERA, his history of post-season dominance, and his 200-inning durability.    In the other corner, Ben Cherington and a pathologically gun-shy front office who would sooner call Brian Cashman up with Lester's jersey size than give him a long-term, big-money contract extension.   Yes, the Carl Crawford mega-contract bombed.  Yes, Adrian Gonzalez left his power on the West Coast.  No, neither Gonzalez nor Crawford were brought up in the Red Sox system and neither knew beforehand what it was like to play in a baseball and media-crazed city like Boston.  

       Taking a gamble on Lester would be taking a gamble on a known entity as far as how well he could pitch in the AL East and handle playing in Boston, pitching at a hitter's park like Fenway.  Sure he had a crappy 2012 and he gets a little agitated when calls don't go his way, but he's battle-tested in one of the toughest markets in MLB.  All free-agent pitchers of his talent level and career pedigree are going to be paid up the wazoo.   If the Red Sox think they can replace Lester by a trade or another free agent, they would be taking a bigger risk than extending him even if the "replacement" is on a shorter deal.  Why?  It's unknown how said "replacement" will respond to pitching in conditions that Lester has pitched in for the past seven years. 

       Replacing Lester from within the farm has its own risks, the greatest of which is the unfair pressure he would inevitably be under to be the new ace of the staff.  None of the current pitchers in the rotation are front-line material.  Lackey, if he returns, will be 36 and he has battled some inconsistency of late.  Buchholz has been wildly inconsistent and has trouble staying healthy.   Peavy is gone, likely at the trade deadline, and Workman and De La Rosa project as back-of-the-rotation guys.  Even top pitching prospect Henry Owens is projected to be a #2 or #3 at best and he has yet to pitch in the major leagues.

  If the Red Sox want to contend next year, they need to sign Lester.   As Lester ages, maybe one of the youngsters will outperform his projection and become an ace, but asking him to be #1 from the moment he suits up for his Red Sox debut is not the way to go.   They have enough young players making league minimum that they can afford to sign Lester to the kind of deal he deserves.   The only question is, will they pony up and do it or go small market and try to sell a multi-year rebuilding process with the highest ticket prices in baseball.  

Sunday, July 13, 2014

A Shred of Optimism

   To say Red Sox 2014 season has been horrible is a gross understatement.   Bad decisions and good ones that didn't work out are both to blame for the hideous hangover season that transformed the Sox from a run-producing machine to a lethargic opportunity-wasting bunch of hopeless hackers.   That being said, one of the leaden clouds over this year's team (but certainly not the only one!) has been removed in the DFA-ing of AJ Pierzynski.   Replacing the free-swinging, abrasively opinionated veteran backstop is young defensive whiz Christian Vazquez, who was promoted from Pawtucket in time for Wednesday night's walk-off win.  Vazquez has impressed so far not only with the glove, as was to be expected, but with the bat as well.   Granted, the sample size is minuscule and the competition is either not much better than (White Sox) or worse than (Astros) the Red Sox, but having a guy who can control the opponents' running game is an upgrade even if the offensive spark does not last.  

    The jettisoning of Pierzynski is a sign that the front office is committed to using 2014 as a proving ground for promising prospects since they are an extreme longshot for contention this year.   If they can unload Peavy, who has actually pitched fairly well of late, if lacking in run support to improve his record, they will clear a rotation spot for Rubby De La Rosa or one of the other talented arms biding their time in AAA.  

    As far as the youngsters currently on the team are concerned, Jackie Bradley, Jr, in particular, is finally starting to put it together at the plate.  His Gold-Glove caliber defense in center field has allowed him some time to work on getting his bat up to speed and the results are starting to show.   Mookie Betts has seen his hot streak cool down significantly since getting called up to the bigs, but he looks like he's making the necessary adjustments and his speed is something that has been sorely lacking in the Sox lineup since Ells departed for The Dark Side.   Xander Bogaerts is slowly, but surely coming out of his deep slump.   Brock Holt is still abusing baseballs with not a hair out of place and has played every position but pitcher and catcher.  

    On the pitching side of things, Brandon Workman has hit a bump in the road since returning from his controversial suspension.  He is winless since then and has seen his ERA balloon to 4.13.   Rubby De La Rosa struggled a bit in Pawtucket upon being demoted in a roster crunch last month and came up last Wednesday with a so-so outing (5 IP, 3 R).   Though not a rookie by any stretch, Clay Buchholz has appreciably improved since coming off the DL.  He helped the Sox take an easy 11-0 win over the Astros by pitching a complete-game shutout.  

    Since Pierzynski was DFA'ed, the Red Sox are 4-1 with two walk-off wins.  Granted, the stretch was against the White Sox and the Astros, not the A's and Tigers, but with the depths the Sox had sunk to so far in '14 (ahem, being swept by the Cubs), I'll take that 4-1 stretch no matter who the opponent.   The improvements the rookies (among others) have made will, in all likelihood, not get them anywhere close to undoing the damage done to the season so far.  However, if they can pick up where they left off once the All-Star Break ends, at least they will be a more fun team to watch.  

Monday, July 7, 2014

Fire Sale: Everything (but Lester) must go!

    With the Red Sox firmly entrenched in The Land of Crappy Baseball (to put it mildly), it's become more clear than ever that they should be sellers at the trade deadline.  One big exception to the sell, sell, sell mantra is Jon Lester.   Jon Lester may not at the very top of the major league pitching pyramid and he has his drawbacks, but he's the best pitcher the Red Sox have at the moment and he is a proven post-season stud.   The Red Sox may have a farm full of young pitching, but none of those arms currently projects higher than mid-rotation.   Ergo, there is currently nobody to take Lester's place should he depart for free agency in the off-season. 

     Ben Cherington is a GM who is loath to give out long-term deals to free agents.   His strategy may have worked in 2013, but most of the time it reads as small-market strategy that puts a team in perpetual rebuilding mode.   The Red Sox are not a small-market team.  They can afford to give out large, long-term contracts to the right players.   The key is determining who the right players are.   I believe that Lester is one of those "right players" and that failing to extend him is as good as fitting him with pinstripes.   The Yankee way of relying on aging stars at the expense of developing the farm has its own problems, but a combination of developing young talent and ponying up for the proven veteran is a strategy that should keep a team contending most years.  

      If the Red Sox don't extend Jon Lester, which would be a huge mistake as far as I'm concerned, they could face a multi-year rebuild that would not go over so well with the fanbase.   Some rebuilding is necessary, but waiting three or four years for a new frontline pitcher to establish himself, if that even happens, could mean more seasons just like this one.   There are options on the free agent market, but the ones worth paying (i.e. Scherzer) would cost just as much, if not more, than the one who has proven he can handle playing in Boston and pitching in a hitter's park like Fenway.  

     As far as who the Red Sox can part with, the first to go should be A.J. Pierzynski.   The return of the whining and excuse making that characterized the 2012 team under Bobby Valentine suggests that something is rotten in the Red Sox clubhouse.   It may not be fair to dump all the blame on Pierzynski, but he came to Boston with a reputation for rubbing his teammates the wrong way.   Peavy is next in line and his back-to-back quality starts should help his trade value.  Lackey shouldn't be untouchable either.  Gomes, Carp, Mujica, Badenhop, Breslow, and even Koji could be shopped.  The prospect haul might not be that impressive, but it clears the way for some of the young talent on the farm to get their feet wet at the major league level.  Some might not be ready for prime time, but this season is lost anyway.  The Red Sox might as well see what they've got in some of those kids. 

Friday, June 27, 2014

Send In The Kids

    The 2014 Red Sox consist of one guy giving his all and getting results. Trouble is, Brock Holt's One-Man MLB Team has to compete with 25-man MLB teams to win baseball games.   Seeing as there is only one Brock Holt, drawing walks, getting hits and making highlight-reel catches, things are looking pretty bleak for the Sox right now.   The season is a lost cause so now it's time to...

  Send in the Kids (sung to the tune of Send in the Clowns)

This year's a bust
Going nowhere
Just last year they were on top, now such despair
So send in the kids

This team can't hit
 Can't drive runs in
Even when pitchers toss gems
They cannot win.  
Where are the kids?
Send in the kids!

Things won't improve just as they are
The status quo won't help them much in 2015
Mookie, Rubby, Cecchini, and Vazquez need to be up.
See what they can do
Before next year.  

'14's a farce
Nothing's gone right
For all that '13 gave them
'14 took away.
But where are the kids
Quick, send in the kids
Why aren't they yet here?

Goodbye, AJ
Goodbye Peavy
Victorino we miss you so much
But you can't stay healthy.
And where are the kids?
There ought to be kids.
Don't wait 'till next year!  


Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Rebuilding The Bridge

    Let's face it:  The 2014 Red Sox cannot realistically be considered contenders at this point.   This season has been maddening, frustrating, and disappointing in every way that it was surprising, exciting, and uplifting last year.   Everything that went thrillingly right in 2013 has gone horribly wrong in 2014.   There is no Savior of the Season waiting to suit up for the Olde Towne Team.   The time has come to call 2014 the dreaded "Rebuilding" or "bridge" year. 

   Ben Cherington and the front office made some mistakes in the offseason.   They brought a reputed clubhouse pariah aboard in AJ Pierzynski.   They rolled too many dice (Sizemore, Jackie Bradley, Jr and to some extent, Victorino, with his injury history) in the outfield without a reliable backup plan.  John Farrell has made some mistakes as well, such as over-relying on Jonny Gomes, even against righties, to the detriment of Daniel Nava.  Nava struggled to start the year, but he's shown signs of regaining his stroke.  That's not enough to ignite a moribund offense, but he shouldn't be disregarded against right-handed pitchers in favor of Gomes, who is miserable against northpaws.

    As wrong as the offense has gone this season, save for one Brock Holt, some things have gone right with the pitching.  Heading into last night's game, the Red Sox were ranked third in the league in ERA.   Save for a few blowouts that happen to all teams, starting pitching has been a strength for the Red Sox, especially when Brandon Workman and Rubby De La Rosa were in the rotation instead of Felix Doubront and Clay Buchholz.   Burke Badenhop has proved a valuable reliever and Koji, except for his recent struggles with the long ball, has been his usual dominant self.   Lester and Lackey have been very solid at the top of the rotation (save for Lackey getting shelled last night).  Peavy is clearly on the downside, but while Workman and De La Rosa were pitching every five days, he was the only weak link in the rotation.   The young pitching is something to build on for 2015. 

     Jon Lester has his shortcomings (his hot temper with the umpires being one of them), but unless the Red Sox pony up for the likes of Max Scherzer, they are well-advised to re-sign Lester to hold down the top spot in the rotation.   Peavy will be off the books and Doubront is running out of chances with this team.   Who knows how Buchholz will perform, giving the wild variations he is prone to?   Lackey is on the books for the league minimum next year, which could make him trade bait if the Red Sox aren't planning on extending him.   Therefore, several rotation spots could be up for grabs for 2015.   De La Rosa and Workman are at the head of the line for those spots, followed by Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo, and Matt Barnes.

      What can the Red Sox do to improve the offense for 2015?   The outfield is the place to start.  If Bradley cannot make the necessary adjustments for hitting consistently at the major league level, then the best candidate for center field is Mookie Betts (provided he can make those adjustments when he comes up).   Victorino has been unable to stay healthy, so right field may be an area of need as well.   The Sox sorely need a power hitter who can hit, at the very least .260 and 25 HR on the season.   The farm doesn't have much in the way of a power-hitting outfielder, so it's up to Cherington to find that kind of bat through a trade or free agency.  

     The left side of the infield also needs to be worked out.   Holt, as great as he's been this year, is best used as a super utility player in the Ben Zobrist mold.   Middlebrooks has power, but can't hit for a decent average.  Cecchini, at least at AAA, can hit for average, but is not known for power.   They need to decide of Bogaerts is their third baseman or shortsop.   If he's ticketed for third, then Cecchini is a trade chip.  Middlebrooks, if he can get it together at the plate, could be moved to the outfield. 

      Now for behind the plate.   The sooner the Red Sox get rid of Pierzynski, the better.   He could be having a Bobby V-like effect on the team.   Christian Vazquez looks to be an excellent defender with a highly questionable bat (Hello, Jackie Bradley Jr!).   Blake Swihart has a more well-rounded skill set, but may not be ready by the beginning of the 2015 season.  

      Once the front office rids itself of the delusion that the Red Sox can contend this year, they can think about being sellers at the deadline and seeing what the likes of Betts, Cecchini, and Vazquez
can do for the team going forward.   There are too many holes to fix by being buyers at the deadline.   The rest of the season is going to be more of the same depressing, frustrating grind, but if they can win (or at least contend for) a World Series in 2015 like they did last year after a miserable 2012, it will be worth it.  

Saturday, June 21, 2014

The Fault(s) in Our Sox

    There's no denying that the 2014 Red Sox are faulty!   The faults can be listed as anyone but Brock Holt, Brandon Workman, John Lackey, Rubby De La Rosa, Koji Uehara (recent struggles notwithstanding), Burke Badenhop, and, when he's not engaging in umpire-directed histrionics, Jon Lester.  That's basically 4/5 of the starting rotation (as it should be, sans Doubront and Buchholz), two bullpen guys, and all of one member of the starting lineup.  Seven players out of 25. The rest of the team, fuggedaboudit!  

      The Red Sox stand at 34-41.  Even in Bobby V-tainted 2012 they were in better shape than this in late June.  They are showing no signs of digging out of their hole, not with their bats so inept they would struggle to hit minor-league pitching.   Their own pitching is the only thing keeping them from having the worst record in baseball.   Workman and De La Rosa are proving themselves worthy of staying in the rotation.   Only Jake Peavy's performance opens a door for Buchholz or Doubront, the poster boys of inconsistency.   One could argue that Allen Webster or Anthony Ranaudo deserves a shot instead.  

       The pitching logjam is the least of the Red Sox' worries in their woeful attempt to defend their title.  They need bats, like, last month!   Aside from Holt, the rest of the lineup is nauseatingly bad.   Bogaerts and Bradley are wilting under the pressure of being the "Next Big Thing" at their respective positions.   Drew is covered in lack-of-Spring-Training rust.   Pierzynski is a GIDP machine.   Papi and Pedey are underperforming drastically.  Nava keeps getting benched for Farrell's binky Jonny Gomes so it's hard for him to get traction at the plate.   Napoli is still recovering from about 15 different injuries.   They are wretched with RISP and ground into double-plays like it's going out of style.   As a result, the pitchers are constantly pitching high-stress innings, which will make continued success going forward an iffy proposition. 

      Unless they get help in short order, the losing will continue.   By the time the trade deadline rolls around, it will be far too late to make improvements.   Sadly, they may have too many holes in their lineup to fix.  How far does one have to go back to find a Red Sox team as offensively inept as this one?