What's Your Lineup?

Spring Training is underway and after dealing with my disappointment that the Red Sox did not get one more reliable starter for their rotation, I'm ready to welcome in the 2012 season and the beginning of the Bobby Valentine Era. I'm liking what I'm seeing and hearing from Bobby V so far in Spring Training. There's a lot more focus on nutrition, baseball fundamentals, and the new skipper's committed to keeping booze out of the clubhouse. This will be a big change from when Terry Francona ran the roost, but change was needed and has been for several years now (not just in reaction to last September).

As the players work out and get themselves ready to start playing baseball again and new faces appear on the 25-man roster, fans and media are abuzz about how Bobby V will fill out his lineup card on Opening Day. Let's be optimistic and say Carl Crawford is ready to play on April 5 in Detroit. Will this be the lineup we see?

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B

5. David Ortiz, DH

6. Carl Crawford, LF

7. Cody Ross, RF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Mike Aviles, SS

This lineup most resembles last year's, with a few new names replacing the likes of Scutaro/Lowrie and Drew/Reddick. Here's an intriguing alternative:

1. Carl Crawford, LF

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

3. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

5. Kevin Youkilis, 3B

6. David Ortiz, DH

7. Cody Ross, RF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Mike Aviles, SS

For this lineup to work, however, Crawford will need to raise his OBP and Ellsbury will need to continue to hit for power like he did last season. Batting Ortiz 6th may seem a little too far down, but to put him 5th would make the lineup too left-handed in the middle. There's also some debate as to who should get the majority of the playing time in RF when both Ellsbury and Crawford are healthy. Cody Ross might have more power, but Ryan Sweeney has the edge defensively an in career batting average (Sweeney: .283, Ross: .261 acc to baseball reference.com) as well. At SS, Mike Aviles has the better bat, but Nick Punto is known for his glove. It will be interesting to see how Valentine allots their playing time.

If Crawford can get himself on base at a decent clip, batting him leadoff would make the best use of his speed. Batting the version of Ellsbury who hit 32 HR last season (assuming the 2012 Ellsbury bears a strong resemblance) in the 3-hole gives him possibly 2 men on base and can boost his RBI total.

How about if Crawford is not ready to go on Opening Day? I believe the right field nod would go to Ryan Sweeney and Cody Ross would man left:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B

5. David Ortiz, DH

6. Cody Ross, LF

7. Ryan Sweeney, RF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Mike Aviles, SS

So where does Kelly Shoppach fit in? While his bat looks pretty woeful (in that an NL pitcher could probably out-hit him) he's an excellent defensive catcher. He has competition from Ryan Lavarnway, whose bat shows a lot of promise, but the defense might need some fine-tuning in Pawtucket. If he shows marked improvement behind the dish in Spring Training and Shoppach continues to struggle with the bat, however, things could get interesting.

No Two Ways About It

If the Red Sox want to compete in the AL East next season they HAVE TO add at least one more reliable, major-league caliber pitcher. Collecting lottery tickets with assorted reclamation projects is okay for minor-league depth purposes, since the Sox don't exactly have a stellar track record when it comes to developing young pitchers (only 2 out of however many they've drafted in the last decade have become fixtures at the major league level). However, the way I see it, the front three are questionable enough as it is, with Lester probably the most reliable of the bunch. Beckett seems to pitch well only in odd-numbered years and Buchholz's back is no small concern. None of the three reached 200 innings last year. Buchholz didn't even reach 100.

For a team that desperately needs innings from starting pitchers, how does it make any sense to try to convert Bard into a starter? He wore out pitching 73 innings last year. Granted, he would be stretched out in Spring Training, I don't see how he can even approach 150 innings. The Great Daniel Bard Experiment would put undue pressure on Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz as well. The same thing goes for Aceves. He was far more effective as a reliever than he was as a starter.

All that said, the Red Sox need to stop playing cheap and add a starter like Oswalt or negotiate a trade for Garza. Oswalt has a balky back as well, but he's a better bet than the Padillas, Cooks, and Silvas they've been stockpiling. Kuroda would have been even better from an innings standpoint, but the Sox sat on their hands while the Yankees swooped in and signed him. If the Sox are relying on a converted reliever and a reclamation project to fill out the back of their rotation, it's 2011 all over again, only this time the might have to fight the Jays off for third place.

One Stop Shoppach

Sorry, I couldn't resist! The Red Sox signed catcher Kelly Shoppach to a 1-year deal today, bringing the backstop back to where he started his career, having been drafted by the Sox in 2001. Shoppach is primarily a defensive catcher, with a 41% caught stealing that lead the league this past season. He faltered at the plate, but has historically put up decent numbers against lefties (career .274 average facing southpaws). This is a move I didn't see coming, but it could prove to be a good deal for the Sox, providing a platoon partner for Salty, who struggles against lefties, and a guy who can control the running game. This effectively ends the Varitek Era in Boston.

That said, the Red Sox have yet to address their most glaring need: PITCHING! The Bard-as-starter experiment looks precarious and can take one of the best arms out of the bullpen, which has already suffered the loss of Papelbon. Guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Paul Maholm can be had without breaking the bank and, of the "cheaper" options, they look like the best ones. As for the bullpen, there's still the chance of a trade for Andrew Bailey. Weiland might be able to work for 1-2 innings, as he usually did pretty well the first time around the lineup. They can't expect too much out of Jenks, given his injury and illness-ridden 2011, but if he's healthy, he could surprise them.

The Ol' Switcheroo

The latest word from the hot stove is that Bobby Valentine's replacement on ESPN is none other than the guy he's replacing in the Red Sox dugout! Terry Francona will be giving me reason to actually listen when ESPN airs Red Sox games on Sunday nights. While I didn't always agree with his in-game decisions or lineups and I do think it was time for both he and the Red Sox to move on, I respect Francona as a person and I look forward to hearing his insights on the game from the perspective of a color commentator. From what I heard of him in the playoff games, he sounds like he can hold his own in the broadcast booth. It'll be interesting to hear what he thinks of the 2012 Red Sox and how his successor manages the game. Congratulations on the new gig, Tito, and best of luck!

All Good Things Must Come to an End

2004 was a year like no other for the Red Sox and the Nation. The players who made it happen will always have a special place in Red Sox history. But, time has marched on and we're heading into 2012. The game has changed and the Red Sox, for the past several years have been anchored in the past. Three members of the 2004 team were still with the team in 2011: Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield, and David Ortiz. All three are now free agents and the Red Sox have some decisions to make. While Tek has so far been silent on his hopes for next year, both Wake and Papi have been vocal in wanting to return to the Red Sox. Wake wants to chase a personal milestone, while Papi wants the security of a multi-year deal. While it's hard to blame either player for wanting to continue playing and keep cashing those checks, is it really in the team's best interest to grant these guys their wishes?

I say no. While I wouldn't mind having Papi back on a 1-year deal with a team option, Wake and Tek need to go. They are both too far past their prime to be effective major league baseball players and neither showed any kind of veteran leadership last September while the Red Sox' season was sinking into quicksand. They are anchors to a past on which the Red Sox need to close the book. Tek can no longer hit for a decent average or throw out base runners with any kind of consistency. Also, he blocks the young and hungry Ryan Lavarnway. Wake's quest for 200 wins was a major distraction down the stretch and the last thing the Red Sox need in 2012 is the distraction of his quest for the all-time Red Sox wins record. Also, the knuckleball's a beast to catch and the wild pitches and passed balls have opposing teams running track meets on the bases.

As for Papi, he started out the 2 seasons before his walk year abysmally. He disappeared in September 2011 (1 HR, 8 RBI the whole month). He doesn't run out ground balls and, as much as I hate to say it, he's starting to remind me of 2008 Manny. The most prudent approach to take with Papi at this stage in his career is to go year-to-year. Papi can still mash the ball, but his slow starts to 2009 and 2010 are troubling. Add in the lack of flexibility the team has with the DH position, especially with emerging part-time DH candidates in Youk and Lavarnway, and it makes even less sense to sign him to a multi-year deal. If he wants that kind of security, he can look for it elsewhere.

With a new manager in the fold, there's no better time than now to move into a new era. If that means saying good-bye to heroes from the team's past, so be it. The game's changing, moving past the old wait-for-the-3-run-homer, station-to-station era--the Red Sox need to change with it.

A New Direction

After a 2-month long (was it really ONLY 2 months?) search, the Red Sox have finally named Terry Francona's successor. Bobby Valentine it is! Valentine is a colorful and sometimes controversial character in the baseball universe. It was a bold choice on the part of the front office and I believe it's the right one. A new voice and a new managerial style is needed after the Red Sox spent the seasons following the 2007 World Series championship gradually losing their edge both within their division and within the American League.

What Valentine brings to the Red Sox contrasts rather dramatically with what Francona brought. While Francona was unassuming and not one to ruffle feathers in the clubhouse or with the front office, Valentine is unafraid to challenge the status quo. Francona's hands-off style worked well with the 2004-2007 teams, but as some of the leaders from that era either departed or saw playing time reduced and new players replaced them, leadership among the players eroded, leading to the September 2011 collapse. The Red Sox need someone like Valentine to get them back on track. A strong, assertive personality who will hold the players accountable for the success of the team is just what this team needs in 2012. That and a couple of decent starting pitchers to round out the rotation.

With Valentine aboard, the Red Sox can now concentrate on putting together the 2012 team. Pitching, both starting and bullpen, should be priority number one. The Red Sox have consistently been in the bottom half of the league in team ERA, while division rivals like the Rays and Yankees ranked near the top. Improve the pitching and the offense doesn't feel like they have to score 8-10 runs every game to win.

Aside from pitching, the Red Sox must decide what to do about right field and catcher. J.D. Drew is, in all likelihood, gone and I'm not sold on either Reddick or Kalish as the starting right fielder. Reddick's plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired and Kalish missed almost an entire year of development with injury. Of the two, I think Kalish has the higher ceiling, but he'll most likely need some time in Pawtucket to make up for lost time. That's where a free agent, preferably a righty, would be helpful, as long as it doesn't take a Crawford-esque contract to sign him. Beltran brings a lot to the table when he's healthy, but I fear he'll rival J.D. Drew in DL time. His age would necessitate a short term (1-2 year) deal. Cuddyer would make sense if he's not too expensive in dollars and years. As for catcher, I think it's time to bid farewell to Tek and let Salty and Lavarnway split time behind the plate.

What to do about Papi? He has suitors among other AL East teams--namely the Blue Jays and the Orioles and they will dictate the market for an aging slugger who plays almost exclusively as a DH. It pains me to call him "aging" since he's only 2 short weeks older than me, but in pro sports years, that's how it goes. He had a phenomenal year in 2011, which makes it all the more of a gamble to re-sign him. Sign him to a multi-year deal and risk a sharp decline, as well as tying up the DH spot for that much longer. Let him walk and risk him continuing his recent success, but for one of the division rivals. If it were up to me, no more than a 1-year deal with a team option for a second year. If that's not enough, Lavarnway can DH when he's not catching, getting him more at-bats in the process.

Winter meetings are next week! It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox will do. I'm not expecting anything like the Gonzalez/Crawford extravaganza of last off-season, but I don't think something like that is needed this year.

Oh, What A Circus!

The Red Sox have chartered an awfully big bus. After all, it has to be big enough to fit everyone connected with the organization who has been thrown under it in the weeks following the Epic Collapse. It's one thing to hold the team and certain individuals accountable; it's quite another to trash everyone left and right. Principal owner John Henry, who needs a gag order placed on him (and that includes Twitter), even went as far as expressing his opposition to the Crawford signing. And that's not supposed to alienate the Sox left fielder for the next 6 years how? If Mr. Henry didn't approve of the signing, then WHY did he let his GM spend his money? Something just doesn't add up here. Are the Red Sox becoming the American League version of the Dodgers before our eyes?

I'm as embarrassed as any fan about what happened to this team in September, but the dirty-laundry circus going on in October may be even more embarrassing than the 7-20 record in the final month of the season. The question now is how long will it take for the Red Sox to dig their way out of this mess. Having new blood in the GM and manager positions, as long as they aren't too similar in style and philosophy to Epstein and Francona, may help. Cherington, if he is indeed the next GM, is a disciple of Epstein and that worries me. It's not enough of a change in philosophy to set the team back on the right track. As for the manager, that has yet to be decided, but this team needs a strong leader to change the culture in the clubhouse and ensure the team's preparation coming out of Spring Training. No more Fort Myers Country Club!

The Red Sox have a long offseason ahead of them and an enormous amount of work to do. First order of business: A GM (if it hasn't already been decided) and a manager. Ownership needs to get its act together yesterday.