Postseason Ponderings

     By the time the night is through, the Red Sox will know who they are facing in the ALDS.   Will it be the Cleveland Indians, led by old friend Terry Francona, or the Tampa Bay Rays, led by Joe "Goggles" Maddon?    The good news for the Sox is that they have winning regular season records against both teams.   They went 12-7 against the Rays and 6-1 against the Indians.   The maybe-not-so-good news is that anything can happen in a short series (see 88-74 Cardinals besting the 98-64 Nationals just last year).  

     As for the rest of the teams, the other ALDS has the Tigers facing the A's.   The Pirates won the NL Wild Card so they'll face the Cardinals in the NLDS while the Dodgers will face the Braves.    Seeing the Red Sox play October baseball after a four-year hiatus is exciting, to say the least.   It's also stressful, because expectations have been raised as high as a World Series trophy.   For every 2004 and 2007, however, there are 2009s, 2008s, 2005s, 2003s, 1999s, 1995s, 1990s, 1988s, 1986s, 1975s, 1967s, and 1946s.   There are the quick exits, the Game 7 World Series losses, and everything in between.  

     That being said, the Red Sox have as good a chance as any of the other playoff teams to make it to the Fall Classic.   When their offense is clicking, they can make quick work of any starting pitcher, with threats up and down the lineup.  They have some pitchers who are capable of taking the ball in big games.   They have a closer who has been lights-out far more often than not.  They have their resilient spirit, which helped them avoid long losing streaks all season.   They have their vulnerabilities, such as middle relief and going into maddening RISP slumps where they strand baserunners left and right.   The pitching staff tends to be walk-prone.   Through it all, however, they won 97 games and tied the Cardinals for the best record in baseball.    Let's see what October brings. 

2013 Soxies

       What a season it has been for the 2013 Red Sox!   Coming in with low expectations and a division that seemed to be wide open, they took charge from the get-go.   They never spent a day under .500, unlike the disastrous 2012 team, who only occasionally peeked over that mark.   The lowest they placed in the standings was third, during a brief skid in May, and have spent most of the season atop the division, en route to their first division crown since 2007.    While there are still questions about this team heading into the postseason (*cough* bullpen *cough*), this season has been one of the best in team history and one of the truest team efforts in the game.  

 While the 2013 Red Sox personify the concept of team play, there is still plenty of virtual hardware to go around for some of the individual players of said team:    

  The King of the Hill:    The winner of this award has been the subject of some controversy this season and it wasn’t a slam-dunk choice, given that he missed so much time, but when he’s been on the mound, he’s been a true force of nature.   A 12-1 record with a 1.74 ERA (with the smaller sample size caveat) is hard to just brush aside due to his extended time on the DL.   Therefore, the 2013 King of the Hill Soxie goes to Clay Buchholz.   One can only imagine how his numbers would have looked had he stayed healthy the whole season.   Honorable Mentions: Jon Lester and John Lackey

 Teddy Yaz:   Named for two of the greatest hitters in Red Sox history, this award goes to the best offensive producer of the season.   This year’s recipient continues to get it done at the plate at age 37, finishing with 30 HR and 103 RBI and showed pitchers why you never intentionally walk anyone to pitch to him.   He’s lethal to baseballs and dugout phones.    The 2013 Teddy Yaz Soxie goes to David “Big Papi” Ortiz.   Honorable Mention:  Mike Napoli

 Dirt Doggery:  He’s played the entire season with a torn ligament in this thumb that will probably need surgery in the offseason.   He’s a player that goes all out, sore thumb be damned and he’s put up his usual numbers (.301 AVG, 9 HR, 84 RBI, .787 OPS).   Also known as “Pedey” or “Laser Show,”  Dustin Pedroia wins the 2013 Dirt Doggery Soxie.   Honorable Mention:  Shane Victorino

 The Golden Welcome Mat:   He may have been signed as a platoon player and his batting average isn’t anything to write home about, but he has a flair for the dramatic and has been a unifying force on this team.  The Boston Strong 617 jersey to honor the memories of the Boston Marathon bombing victims was his idea.   The Golden Welcome Mat Soxie for  2013 goes to Jonny Gomes.   Honorable Mentions:  Koji Uehara, Mike Carp, Shane Victorino

The Comeback Kid:   In 2011, he pitched through a shredded elbow and his ERA paid a hefty price.   He was also allegedly part of the “Chicken and Beer” controversy at the heart of the 2011 collapse.   In 2012, he spent the season recovering from Tommy John surgery and he came into the 2013 season having lost weight and gotten himself into top shape.   Though his record isn’t pretty to look at due to poor run support, he has put forth a 3.52 ERA on the season and figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS.   The 2013 Comeback Kid Soxie goes to John Lackey   Honorable Mention:  Jon Lester

The Bullpen Cowboy:  This one’s a no-brainer.   He stepped up and dominated in a place of great need for the Red Sox when their previous 2 closers went down with injuries and ineffectiveness.   He also high-fives with the best of them.   Koji Uehara wins the 2013 Bullpen Cowboy Soxie  Honorable Mention:  Craig Breslow

 The Team Player:   Pretty much all of the 2013 Red Sox could lay claim to this award, but one guy stands out for his willingness to play wherever he’s asked.  He’s also helped the team by putting up some very nice numbers (.303 avg, 12 HR, 66 RBI, .831 OPS).   A big part of his game is just getting on base.   The 2013 Team Player Soxie goes to Daniel Nava.  Honorable mention:  Shane Victorino

 2013 Red Sox MVP:   This is a tough one because so much of this team’s success this season has been the result of a team effort.  The 2013 Red Sox did not have to rely on a couple of superstars to propel them to 97 wins, rather they were an ensemble cast.    I could make a case for at least a half dozen players, from Koji Uehara for stepping up as the best Red Sox closer since 2007 Papelbon, to Big Papi for continuing to be the offensive force in the middle of the lineup, to Shane Victorino and Dustin Pedroia, who played through pain all year, to Jon Lester, who struggled in June and July, but righted the ship in the second half, but the player I’m choosing is one that I’ve had my doubts about over the course of his time with the Red Sox and now I’m hoping he re-signs with the team, as he will be a free agent this offseason.   He has really stepped up his game in 2013, from refining his hitting approach to developing a Varitek-like rapport with the pitching staff.   He dealt with an increased workload in the absence of David Ross, yet managed to avoid second-half fade.  This is why I choose Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the 2013 Red Sox MVP.  

                          The following Soxies are whimsical new categories for 2013, with no honorable mentions.  

    The Grand Salami Soxie:   Mike Napoli (3 Grand Slams this season)

    The FCC Be Damned Soxie:  David Ortiz, for “This is our F@#%ing city!”  in first home game after the Boston Marathon bombings.

     The “What Wall?” Soxie:  Shane Victorino, who had close encounters with plenty of stationary objects in the field of play.  

      The Helmet Hero Soxie:  Jonny Gomes, for his helmet punt after hitting a walk-off home run and wearing a soldier’s helmet during the clinching celebration.  

     The Wheels of Steal Soxie:  Jacoby Ellsbury, who lead all of MLB in stolen bases with 52

     The “Call Me Stephen” Soxie:  Stephen, not J.D., Drew.   However, should they reach Game 6 of the ALCS and he hits a grand slam, all bets are off. 

     The Smarty Pants Soxie:   Craig Breslow, who might have been a doctor if he weren’t a pro baseball player. 

      Best Performance By A Pinch Hitter Soxie:  Mike Carp for his game-winning pinch-hit grand slam against the division rival Rays.   

Chasing HFA

    Despite my somewhat irrational fears of the Ghost of 2011, the Red Sox clinched the AL East crown last Friday night.  They took 2 out of 3 from Toronto and they now boast a 95-62 record, which is the best in MLB.  More importantly, it is the best in the American League, which has playoff implications that could, should they stay on top over their last 5 games, give them several advantages in the division series.    The team that is standing in their way, only 1.5 games behind, is the team that reminds me the most of the Red Sox in spirit, composition, and even facial hair:  The Oakland A's (93-63).   It seems like half of that team played for the Red Sox at some point.    The Tigers aren't too far behind in the home field advantage chase either, at 91-65.  

    What is at stake for the team with the best record in the AL?    Home field advantage, for one.   The Red Sox (53-28) post the best home record in the league, though Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay aren't far behind.   Perhaps an even bigger edge for the top seed going into the ALDS is that they get to play the winner of the Wild Card play-in game.  The two Wild Card teams will be at a disadvantage, having to use one of their best pitchers just to get the chance to play in the division series.  They will get less rest than the division winners and they won't get the chance to set up their rotation.   That by no means guarantees the team who plays the Wild Card winner a ticket to the league championship series (see last year's Washington Nationals, who had the best record in baseball, but who got bested by the Wild Card Cardinals in the NLDS).   However, the advantages the top seed gets are worth playing for in the last two series of the regular season.  

     On a somewhat unrelated note, thoughts go out to Manny Machado, who had to be carted off the field after a pretty scary looking knee injury this afternoon during the O's game against the Rays.   While the O's have been a huge thorn in the side of the Red Sox for the past couple of years, you hate to see any player get hurt like that and be in so much pain, especially such a talented and exciting young player like Machado.   

Complacency and the Ghost of 2011

    What happened to the team that swept the Yankees this weekend?   Did they spend the off-day Monday celebrating a division win that isn't theirs yet?   News flash, Red Sox:  The magic number to clinch the AL East is 3, not zero.   There is still work to be done and the O's are a team you have to beat.   Last night and especially tonight against the O's I saw a complacent team reminiscent of that awful 2011 team that just assumed they were making the playoffs and stopped playing with any sense of purpose.   How do you get 15 hits, yet only score 3 runs?   And hit into 4 double plays???   And why, John Farrell, is Stephen Drew still in the lineup against lefties?  

     Red Sox, do you want to shut me up about 2011?   Then how about going out and winning 3 games (or more, preferably more to secure home field advantage)?   Don't let this chance slip away again!   Settling for a wild card playoff game is not making the playoffs in my book.   The real playoffs begin with the division series.    You've been playing so well this month.   Please let these two games be but a small bump in the road and get back to WINNING!    You're too close to fall apart now. 

     

Slammin' their way through September

   The Red Sox have hit 8 grand slams this season.  Half of them have come in September.   Middlebrooks hit the first one of the month in the 20-4 annihilation of the Tigers.   Napoli launched one in Yankee Stadium last weekend.   Carp hit a 10th inning granny against the Rays.   Most recently, Salty broke a 4-4 tie on Friday at home against the Yankees.   This is all part of the Red Sox doing everything they can to put the bitter memories of Septembers 2011 and2012 so far behind them they seem like ancient history.  

    With their sweep of the Yankees and the Rays' loss this afternoon, the Red Sox' magic number has been whittled down to 4.   This means they have the chance to clinch their first division title in 6 seasons as early as Wednesday.   Clinching the AL East with more than a week to go in the regular season wouldn't mean the Sox can or should take their foot off the gas, however.  The division winner gets 4 days off between the last game of the regular season and the first game of the ALDS, so there will be time for the players to rest.   Building (or maintaining, as the case may be) momentum in the final week of the season is key to hitting the ground running in the postseason.   Teams that let up too much after an early clinch have to find a way to ramp their intensity back up in short order for that first playoff series and nothing ramps up intensity like winning games going into that series.   Given their current winning percentage, the Red Sox are on pace to win 98 games, matching their 2004 record.   Unlike in 2004, 98 games would be more than enough to win the division.   98 wins won't guarantee anything in the playoffs (just ask the 2012 Washington Nationals), but clinching best record in the American League gives a team home field advantage throughout.   

       

Getting Closer

   So far, so good for the Red Sox in September.   They are 6-2 for the month and won two big series against the Tigers and the Yankees.   They are 87-58 on the season and have snuck by the Atlanta Braves for best record in baseball.   Their magic number for clinching the division stands at 12.   In the era of the Wild Card one-game playoff, winning the division is at a premium.   7.5 games separate the Red Sox from the Rays and a statement series between the two teams begins on Tuesday.  

    The Sox got some disturbing news this weekend when it was revealed that Ells fractured his navicular bone (again with the navicular!).  The team is of the mind that the fracture is not serious and that Ells may return before the end of the season, but this is Ells we're talking about.   He missed almost two whole seasons with injuries that seemed to be very slow to heal.   Losing a nearly .300 hitter with his speed and glove would make a deep October run a little harder, but not impossible.   Perhaps more than any other team in MLB and even any other Red Sox team in recent memory, the 2013 Red Sox are truly an ensemble cast, light on superstars, but very deep, with enough quality players and a team-first mentality in stark contrast to recent years.  

    How many games will this team win?   There are 17 games left in the regular season.   Winning 9 of those 17 would match the 2007 record of 96-66.   Going 11-6 would match 2004's 98-64 mark.   Final record doesn't matter as much as winning the division, but finishing as the top team in the league would give them home field advantage throughout the playoffs.   The Red Sox are a good road team, but they are truly dominant at Fenway, with the best home record in the league and the second-best in MLB.  

   It's looking more and more likely that the Red Sox will return to the playoffs after a 4-year absence, but there's still a little work to be done, particularly against the rest of the AL East.   The return of Will Middlebrooks to what looks like his 2012 self (one of the only players we want to see returning to 2012 form!) along with a resurgent Mike Napoli give the Sox the right-handed power they need and some protection for Big Papi in the lineup.   Stephen Drew's steady bat and glove are making Xander Bogaerts' playing time scarce.  Jackie Bradley, Jr. is getting the chance to show what he can do in Ells' absence.  

  Clay Buchholz (remember him?) is scheduled to return to the rotation next week in Tampa.  Whether he will be a reasonable facsimile of his early-season Kershaw-esque self remains to be seen.   I'd take an ERA in the low 3's from him at this point.    A rotation of Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, and Lackey, in whatever order, is a competitive playoff rotation.  

 

Tigers Tamed, Sox Bats Go Bonkers

      I sure wish John Lackey had been on the mound for the kind of once-in-a-decade offensive explosion the Red Sox unleashed on Tigers pitching last night.   They put up three touchdowns worth of runs (minus an extra point).   They hit a dinger, then a long ball, then a tater, then a salami, a jack, a four-bagger, a round-tripper, and went bridge for good measure.   The last time the Red Sox touched 'em all eight times in one game, Big Papi was a year and a half old, Koji and new Red Sox John McDonald were two, last night's starter Ryan Dempster was two months old and David Ross was three months old.   The rest of the team wasn't even born yet.  

    The last time the Red Sox scored at least 20 runs in a game was in 2003, when they bludgeoned the Marlins for 25.    In the middle of all the run-scoring chaos, Papi reached a milestone 2000 career hits by sandwiching a double between two home runs for 1999 and 2001.   He was the only one to go yard twice last night, with Drew, Ells, Middlebrooks (grand slam), Lavarnway, Nava, and Napoli joining him.   That's seven guys hitting eight bombs!   The Red Sox are a team better known for their on-base percentage than their power, but when they do leave the yard, they do it in bunches (recall the 6-homer barrage in Toronto on April 7 of this year).   This time, they did it at Fenway in front of the home crowd.

  Last night's game was a whole lot of fun to watch, especially since they were doing it against their rivals for best team in the AL.   However, as the story often goes with all teams, after such a bountiful feast at the plate, there is often a famine the next night.   It's as if the batters are all exhausted from all that hitting and baserunning.  Fortunately for hard-luck starter Lackey, he won't be the one at the likely short end of the stick tonight, with Jake Peavy toeing the rubber for the series opener against the why-couldn't-they-just-stay-in-fourth-place Yankees.   In order to keep them and the Rays and O's at a distance, the Red Sox need to at least split the series, but it's always better to get the series win.   They made a statement by taking two of three from the Tigers and now it's time to keep the momentum going.