Getting Closer

   So far, so good for the Red Sox in September.   They are 6-2 for the month and won two big series against the Tigers and the Yankees.   They are 87-58 on the season and have snuck by the Atlanta Braves for best record in baseball.   Their magic number for clinching the division stands at 12.   In the era of the Wild Card one-game playoff, winning the division is at a premium.   7.5 games separate the Red Sox from the Rays and a statement series between the two teams begins on Tuesday.  

    The Sox got some disturbing news this weekend when it was revealed that Ells fractured his navicular bone (again with the navicular!).  The team is of the mind that the fracture is not serious and that Ells may return before the end of the season, but this is Ells we're talking about.   He missed almost two whole seasons with injuries that seemed to be very slow to heal.   Losing a nearly .300 hitter with his speed and glove would make a deep October run a little harder, but not impossible.   Perhaps more than any other team in MLB and even any other Red Sox team in recent memory, the 2013 Red Sox are truly an ensemble cast, light on superstars, but very deep, with enough quality players and a team-first mentality in stark contrast to recent years.  

    How many games will this team win?   There are 17 games left in the regular season.   Winning 9 of those 17 would match the 2007 record of 96-66.   Going 11-6 would match 2004's 98-64 mark.   Final record doesn't matter as much as winning the division, but finishing as the top team in the league would give them home field advantage throughout the playoffs.   The Red Sox are a good road team, but they are truly dominant at Fenway, with the best home record in the league and the second-best in MLB.  

   It's looking more and more likely that the Red Sox will return to the playoffs after a 4-year absence, but there's still a little work to be done, particularly against the rest of the AL East.   The return of Will Middlebrooks to what looks like his 2012 self (one of the only players we want to see returning to 2012 form!) along with a resurgent Mike Napoli give the Sox the right-handed power they need and some protection for Big Papi in the lineup.   Stephen Drew's steady bat and glove are making Xander Bogaerts' playing time scarce.  Jackie Bradley, Jr. is getting the chance to show what he can do in Ells' absence.  

  Clay Buchholz (remember him?) is scheduled to return to the rotation next week in Tampa.  Whether he will be a reasonable facsimile of his early-season Kershaw-esque self remains to be seen.   I'd take an ERA in the low 3's from him at this point.    A rotation of Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, and Lackey, in whatever order, is a competitive playoff rotation.