Will the #4 and #5 Starters Please Stand Up?

Bard, Aceves, and Doubront. With a week to go until Opening Day on April 5, the final two spots in the rotation are still up for grabs. Well, at least one of them. Felix Doubront has pitched well enough in Spring Training to have earned a spot and being a lefty certainly helps. The other one is still being fought over by two relievers who have the stuff to start. The question is, which one can command his stuff over at least six innings and keep his team in the game?

Going by Spring Training results, the answer appears to be Alfredo Aceves (last Saturday's start against the Phillies notwithstanding). Bard seems to have more trouble in the command department, channelling Dice-K and Miller in his most recent starts. The AL East isn't getting any easier and teams need deep rotations to compete. It's a big gamble to send Bard out there to give up a handful of runs (and walks) every 5th day, putting pressure on both the offense and the rest of the starting rotation. If Aceves, as valuable as he is to the bullpen, can command his stuff, keep walks and runs to a minimum, and pitch deeper into games, he should get that last spot.

What of Aaron Cook, who, in his limited ST outings has shown he deserves a shot to start? Can he get a few starts under his belt in AAA to get stretched out, then take over the fifth spot? While the sample size is extremely tiny, he looks to be healthy and he has a May 1 opt-out date. If he can nail down a spot in the rotation, it can only help strengthen the bullpen, with both Bard and Aceves added to the mix.

Then there's Dice-K, who could be ready to return to the big club as early as June. Will having Bobby V, who speaks some Japanese, help him become more like the pitcher he was in Japan? If he can come back strong from TJ surgery, he could really give the rotation a boost. A fresh start with a new manager and pitching coach could be the best thing for him.

Whatever the back of the rotation ends up being, having depth is the key to avoiding another September meltdown.

Bobby V's Alright To Me

I know it's mid-Spring Training and sample sizes are on the level of a protozoa, but count me as a fan of Bobby Valentine's work so far. While his outspokenness may rub some people the wrong way, including those who wish Terry Francona were still at the helm, he has shaken up a team that had grown complacent over the years. I've heard his coaching methods criticized as micromanaging, but after the way the team performed at the beginning and end of last season, a little more supervision couldn't hurt. It's a complete 180 from Tito's hands-off management style and a necessary change in direction for the Red Sox.

Aggressive baserunning, bunting, squeeze plays, and the like have long been associated with the National League style of baseball, but now, more American League teams getting in on the act too. We've seen what teams like the Angels, Rays, and Rangers have done against the Red Sox on the base paths, especially when the recently-retired Tek was on the mound.

So far this Spring Training, the Red Sox have been doing a lot of running as well, stealing bases and going from first to third. They've run into some outs along the way, but they've also manufactured some runs and put pressure on the opposing team's defense. Take last night's 1-0 win over the Yankees for example. Pedro Ciriaco made it all the way around the bases on what was ruled a single. The ball got by the Yankees' right fielder and Ciriaco's blazing speed had the Yankees rushing throws, allowing the ball to get away and Ciriaco to cross the plate for the game's only run. Ciriaco, incidentally was the hero in Monday's game as well, blasting a 2-run shot above the extra-high Jet Blue Park Green Monster.

Bobby V has worked with the team extensively on fundamentals, both on the offensive and defensive side of the game. So far in Spring Training, his methods have been paying off, with the Red Sox near the top of the Grapefruit League with a 7-2 record. These games may not count toward the regular season, but it would be nice to keep up the good baseball in Spring Training and have it carry over once the games really do count.

What's Your Lineup?

Spring Training is underway and after dealing with my disappointment that the Red Sox did not get one more reliable starter for their rotation, I'm ready to welcome in the 2012 season and the beginning of the Bobby Valentine Era. I'm liking what I'm seeing and hearing from Bobby V so far in Spring Training. There's a lot more focus on nutrition, baseball fundamentals, and the new skipper's committed to keeping booze out of the clubhouse. This will be a big change from when Terry Francona ran the roost, but change was needed and has been for several years now (not just in reaction to last September).

As the players work out and get themselves ready to start playing baseball again and new faces appear on the 25-man roster, fans and media are abuzz about how Bobby V will fill out his lineup card on Opening Day. Let's be optimistic and say Carl Crawford is ready to play on April 5 in Detroit. Will this be the lineup we see?

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B

5. David Ortiz, DH

6. Carl Crawford, LF

7. Cody Ross, RF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Mike Aviles, SS

This lineup most resembles last year's, with a few new names replacing the likes of Scutaro/Lowrie and Drew/Reddick. Here's an intriguing alternative:

1. Carl Crawford, LF

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

3. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

5. Kevin Youkilis, 3B

6. David Ortiz, DH

7. Cody Ross, RF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Mike Aviles, SS

For this lineup to work, however, Crawford will need to raise his OBP and Ellsbury will need to continue to hit for power like he did last season. Batting Ortiz 6th may seem a little too far down, but to put him 5th would make the lineup too left-handed in the middle. There's also some debate as to who should get the majority of the playing time in RF when both Ellsbury and Crawford are healthy. Cody Ross might have more power, but Ryan Sweeney has the edge defensively an in career batting average (Sweeney: .283, Ross: .261 acc to baseball reference.com) as well. At SS, Mike Aviles has the better bat, but Nick Punto is known for his glove. It will be interesting to see how Valentine allots their playing time.

If Crawford can get himself on base at a decent clip, batting him leadoff would make the best use of his speed. Batting the version of Ellsbury who hit 32 HR last season (assuming the 2012 Ellsbury bears a strong resemblance) in the 3-hole gives him possibly 2 men on base and can boost his RBI total.

How about if Crawford is not ready to go on Opening Day? I believe the right field nod would go to Ryan Sweeney and Cody Ross would man left:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B

5. David Ortiz, DH

6. Cody Ross, LF

7. Ryan Sweeney, RF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Mike Aviles, SS

So where does Kelly Shoppach fit in? While his bat looks pretty woeful (in that an NL pitcher could probably out-hit him) he's an excellent defensive catcher. He has competition from Ryan Lavarnway, whose bat shows a lot of promise, but the defense might need some fine-tuning in Pawtucket. If he shows marked improvement behind the dish in Spring Training and Shoppach continues to struggle with the bat, however, things could get interesting.

No Two Ways About It

If the Red Sox want to compete in the AL East next season they HAVE TO add at least one more reliable, major-league caliber pitcher. Collecting lottery tickets with assorted reclamation projects is okay for minor-league depth purposes, since the Sox don't exactly have a stellar track record when it comes to developing young pitchers (only 2 out of however many they've drafted in the last decade have become fixtures at the major league level). However, the way I see it, the front three are questionable enough as it is, with Lester probably the most reliable of the bunch. Beckett seems to pitch well only in odd-numbered years and Buchholz's back is no small concern. None of the three reached 200 innings last year. Buchholz didn't even reach 100.

For a team that desperately needs innings from starting pitchers, how does it make any sense to try to convert Bard into a starter? He wore out pitching 73 innings last year. Granted, he would be stretched out in Spring Training, I don't see how he can even approach 150 innings. The Great Daniel Bard Experiment would put undue pressure on Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz as well. The same thing goes for Aceves. He was far more effective as a reliever than he was as a starter.

All that said, the Red Sox need to stop playing cheap and add a starter like Oswalt or negotiate a trade for Garza. Oswalt has a balky back as well, but he's a better bet than the Padillas, Cooks, and Silvas they've been stockpiling. Kuroda would have been even better from an innings standpoint, but the Sox sat on their hands while the Yankees swooped in and signed him. If the Sox are relying on a converted reliever and a reclamation project to fill out the back of their rotation, it's 2011 all over again, only this time the might have to fight the Jays off for third place.

One Stop Shoppach

Sorry, I couldn't resist! The Red Sox signed catcher Kelly Shoppach to a 1-year deal today, bringing the backstop back to where he started his career, having been drafted by the Sox in 2001. Shoppach is primarily a defensive catcher, with a 41% caught stealing that lead the league this past season. He faltered at the plate, but has historically put up decent numbers against lefties (career .274 average facing southpaws). This is a move I didn't see coming, but it could prove to be a good deal for the Sox, providing a platoon partner for Salty, who struggles against lefties, and a guy who can control the running game. This effectively ends the Varitek Era in Boston.

That said, the Red Sox have yet to address their most glaring need: PITCHING! The Bard-as-starter experiment looks precarious and can take one of the best arms out of the bullpen, which has already suffered the loss of Papelbon. Guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Paul Maholm can be had without breaking the bank and, of the "cheaper" options, they look like the best ones. As for the bullpen, there's still the chance of a trade for Andrew Bailey. Weiland might be able to work for 1-2 innings, as he usually did pretty well the first time around the lineup. They can't expect too much out of Jenks, given his injury and illness-ridden 2011, but if he's healthy, he could surprise them.

The Ol' Switcheroo

The latest word from the hot stove is that Bobby Valentine's replacement on ESPN is none other than the guy he's replacing in the Red Sox dugout! Terry Francona will be giving me reason to actually listen when ESPN airs Red Sox games on Sunday nights. While I didn't always agree with his in-game decisions or lineups and I do think it was time for both he and the Red Sox to move on, I respect Francona as a person and I look forward to hearing his insights on the game from the perspective of a color commentator. From what I heard of him in the playoff games, he sounds like he can hold his own in the broadcast booth. It'll be interesting to hear what he thinks of the 2012 Red Sox and how his successor manages the game. Congratulations on the new gig, Tito, and best of luck!

All Good Things Must Come to an End

2004 was a year like no other for the Red Sox and the Nation. The players who made it happen will always have a special place in Red Sox history. But, time has marched on and we're heading into 2012. The game has changed and the Red Sox, for the past several years have been anchored in the past. Three members of the 2004 team were still with the team in 2011: Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield, and David Ortiz. All three are now free agents and the Red Sox have some decisions to make. While Tek has so far been silent on his hopes for next year, both Wake and Papi have been vocal in wanting to return to the Red Sox. Wake wants to chase a personal milestone, while Papi wants the security of a multi-year deal. While it's hard to blame either player for wanting to continue playing and keep cashing those checks, is it really in the team's best interest to grant these guys their wishes?

I say no. While I wouldn't mind having Papi back on a 1-year deal with a team option, Wake and Tek need to go. They are both too far past their prime to be effective major league baseball players and neither showed any kind of veteran leadership last September while the Red Sox' season was sinking into quicksand. They are anchors to a past on which the Red Sox need to close the book. Tek can no longer hit for a decent average or throw out base runners with any kind of consistency. Also, he blocks the young and hungry Ryan Lavarnway. Wake's quest for 200 wins was a major distraction down the stretch and the last thing the Red Sox need in 2012 is the distraction of his quest for the all-time Red Sox wins record. Also, the knuckleball's a beast to catch and the wild pitches and passed balls have opposing teams running track meets on the bases.

As for Papi, he started out the 2 seasons before his walk year abysmally. He disappeared in September 2011 (1 HR, 8 RBI the whole month). He doesn't run out ground balls and, as much as I hate to say it, he's starting to remind me of 2008 Manny. The most prudent approach to take with Papi at this stage in his career is to go year-to-year. Papi can still mash the ball, but his slow starts to 2009 and 2010 are troubling. Add in the lack of flexibility the team has with the DH position, especially with emerging part-time DH candidates in Youk and Lavarnway, and it makes even less sense to sign him to a multi-year deal. If he wants that kind of security, he can look for it elsewhere.

With a new manager in the fold, there's no better time than now to move into a new era. If that means saying good-bye to heroes from the team's past, so be it. The game's changing, moving past the old wait-for-the-3-run-homer, station-to-station era--the Red Sox need to change with it.