Monday, July 1, 2013

Midseason Grades: Red Sox on the Honor Roll?

      After seeing the Red Sox on a steady, then steep decline for five years following their 2007 World Championship season, watching the 2013 season unfold is both refreshing and surprising.   After all, when the ownership and front office made that landmark "plunger deal" last August, getting rid of some bad contracts and clubhouse toxins seemed to pave the way for a multi-year rebuild.   There was a lot of rubble to clear away from the slow-motion disaster that was the 2012 Red Sox, or so it seemed. No one expected them to contend this year, much less be in first place and be one of only two teams with 50 games heading into July.   The other one, by the way, is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have plundered and pillaged their way to the best record in baseball.   Cinderella's sporting a peg leg and eye patch this year.  

      Without any further jibberjabber, let's hand out those report cards:

    Starting Lineup
 
    Catcher:  Jarrod Saltalamacchia B+  Salty has really stepped up as the season has progressed.   With David Ross down for the count with concussion symptoms, a larger portion of the catching duties than anticipated has fallen to him and he has risen to the occasion.   He's still pretty much a certain K when he has an 0-2 count, but he's raised his batting average to .262 with a .328 OBP.   He's improved his skills behind the plate also, looking as if he took some baserunner throwing-out lessons from teammate David Ross.   The Sox must be careful not to wear him down, however, as they can ill afford to see him fall off a cliff down the stretch.  

   First Base:  Mike Napoli  B  Napoli was an RBI machine in April and May, but he has tailed off quite a bit in June.   His lack of power at Fenway is particularly perplexing, seeing how he launched balls over the monster on a regular basis when he visited the Fens as an opposing player.   The fact that he hit only one home run in June is also a little concerning, seeing that he's a middle-of-the-order bat who is relied upon to provide power and protection for Big Papi.   Still, he has played better than expected at first base and he has (knock on wood) stayed healthy.   He can bring that grade up in the second half by finding his Fenway power stroke (and his power stroke in general) and cut down a little on the strikeouts.

   Second Base:  Dustin Pedroia  A  Pedey has been Vintage Pedey this season, playing much like, or possibly better than, his 2008 MVP campaign.   He's hitting .322 and playing gold-glove defense--essentially being what we have come to expect him to be.   Last year saw him fighting though various
injuries, but this year, you would never know that he's been playing with a torn UCL in his thumb.   Pedey being Pedey is a big part of where the Red Sox are right now.  

 Shortstop:  Stephen Drew  B-  Stephen Drew came to Boston with some unfair baggage, sharing DNA with a guy who got a lot of unwarranted flak for his style of playing in J.D. Drew.   He was brought on because the Front Office didn't feel like they could rely on Jose Iglesias to put up acceptable offensive numbers to stay on the major league roster.   To be fair, Iggy was pretty abysmal down the stretch in 2012 and having a guy like Bobby V for a manager didn't help.   Drew has come in and played solidly, though not spectacularly at shortstop while hitting an underwhelming .233.   He's a streaky hitter who got a slow start to the season after missing much of spring training with a concussion.   With the emergence of Iggy and the exciting Xander Bogaerts waiting in the wings in Pawtucket, Drew could be dealt at the deadline.  

 Third Base:  Jose Iglesias A  Who knew Iggy could hit?   While he's certainly not going to keep hitting an absurd .409 through 132 at-bats (There was only one Ted Williams, ladies and gentlemen.  There's a reason his .406 season average is a record that has lasted for more than 70 years), he has clearly improved his approach at the plate during the offseason.   Even if many of his hits are of the infield variety, his ability to burst out of the batter's box quickly and hustle down the line to first base deserves some credit.   The defense, simply put, is phenomenal.   He plays his new position like he's been playing there his whole career.   The biggest question is how much regression will he encounter in the second half?   Will he finish the season hitting over .300?   .270?   He's not a prototypical corner infielder from a power perspective, so a return to short is likely once either Middlebrooks solves his hitting woes at AAA or Xander Bogaerts proves himself ready to be the Red Sox' answer to the Orioles' Manny Machado.  

Third Base:  Will Middlebrooks  D   Having burst onto the scene last season and raked, to the point of sending Kevin Youkilis out of town, Middlebrooks had his season ended by a broken wrist, resulting from being hit by a pitch.   2013 has not been kind to him so far.    He simply could not respond to the adjustments pitchers made to him based on the scouting reports.   After looking lost at the plate for two and a half months, the young third baseman is back in Pawtucket, trying to recapture what made his 2012 campaign so thrilling.   With Xander Bogaerts, who may be a shortstop now, but could be converted to a third baseman, in the rearview mirror, the Red Sox have options if Middlebrooks struggles in AAA.  

 Left Field:  Daniel Nava  A  We all know Nava's story by now.   He has earned his role as the starting left fielder for the 2013 Red Sox and he has filled in satisfactorily in right field whenever an outfield wall takes Victorino out for a few days.   He is the only player besides Big Papi to have hit double digits in home runs so far this season.   He's made a case, at least with Red Sox Nation, to be a write-in candidate for the All-Star Game.  That said, the Red Sox need him to keep this up in the second half, something he has struggled with in past seasons.  

Center Field:  Jacoby Ellsbury B+  Like Salty, Ells started the season off slowly, but has picked it up in May and June.   While he does not have the home run power he had in 2011 (only one so far this season), he's back to stealing bases like it was 2009.   His defense is in line with his career norms, his throwing arm being his only major weakness.   The Red Sox will have an interesting decision to make this coming off-season.  

Right Field:  Shane Victorino A-  The Flyin' Hawaiian has been a bit crash-prone in the outfield, but when he's on the field and healthy, he's been great.   He's hitting .291 with a .341 OBP.   He's not a home run hitter, but he, along with Ells, are good table-setters for Pedey and Papi.   His D is excellent and has made many a starting pitcher sigh with relief.  

Designated Hitter:  David Ortiz  A  Big Papi is once again the biggest power threat in the Red Sox lineup and at 37 and coming off an Achilles injury that ended his 2012 season (and any shred of hope the 2012 team had of contending), the big guy's hitting .317 with 16 HR and 57 RBI.   Keeping him healthy will be key to the Sox keeping up the pace in the second half.   They need his power bat in a lineup that is rather light on power overall.   There are no Chris Davises, Jose Bautistas, Edwin Encarnacions, Miguel Cabreras, or Prince Fielders in this lineup.   With Napoli's recent power outage, Papi's intentional walk rates are on the rise.  

Starting Rotation

Clay Buchholz  A-  The minus is only there because he's having trouble staying on the field.   When he's healthy, he's been absolutely lights-out vintage-Pedro Martinez-esque.   The Red Sox owe their blazing April to Buchholz's dominating, right alongside his teammate Jon Lester.   He has a 1.71 ERA, along with a 9-0 record.   His starts early this season were about as sure a win as you could get.   How active the Red Sox are on the starting pitching market at the trade deadline depends on when Buch can return to the mound.   If his injury lingers on much longer, the team may be forced to fork over some money and prospects for, at the very least, Matt Garza, if not Cliff Lee.  Xander Bogaerts, however, must be absolutely off limits.

John Lackey A-  One of the most pleasant surprises this season so far has been the redemption, at least on the mound, of John Lackey.   Lackey is coming off Tommy John surgery, which kept him out of the picture in 2012.   He pitched through a disintegrating elbow in 2011 and, to some extent, in 2010 as well, and his numbers showed just how bad a shape that elbow was in.   While rehabbing the repaired elbow, Lackey got the rest of his body in shape as well, shedding some excess weight and, as a result, some excess ERA.   Due to inconsistent run support, his 5-5 record is less of an indication of how he has pitched this year than his ERA, which is at 2.99.   He's helped anchor the rotation in the absence of Buchholz.  

Jon Lester  C+  When Lester started out the season going 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA, it looked like the 2012 shell of Jon Lester was history and he had return to the form that made him one of the best pitchers in the league.   Then, in late May and into June, the Pod Lester we thought had been kicked to the curb had found his way back to the mound, to the frustration and bewilderment of us all.   Which one is the real Jon Lester?   He showed some signs of improvement in his last start against the Blue Jays and the Sox hope he has started to right the ship.   A healthy and dominating Buchholz, Lester, and Lackey would go a long way toward seizing that division title and the first playoff berth in four years.  

Ryan Dempster  B  Dempster was not signed to be the ace of the staff.   He was signed to do exactly what he has done in the first half:  stabilize the back end of the rotation and keep his team in the game.   He went though a rough stretch in early May, but other than that, he's proving to be a smart move by the Front Office.  

Felix Doubront  B-  Doubront's rotation spot was in danger early in the season, when he showed up to spring training out of shape and struggled with the same problems that plagued him last year:  inefficiency, gopher balls, walks, and earning the nickname (from yours truly) of "Five-Inning Felix".   Since then, he's stepped up his game, including throwing an eight-inning gem against the Rays at Fenway.   He still needs a little work on efficiency, but he's taking steps in the right direction.

Allen Webster  C-  Webster was a part of the Great 2012 Bailout as one of the prospects the Red Sox got in return for Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Nick Punto.   He made his major league debut in April against the Royals and, while that outing was impressive, he struggled mightily in the two subsequent outings: one against the Twins and one against the Tigers.   He fared better against the Blue Jays and will remain in the rotation for the time being, until Buchholz returns.   He has some great stuff, but has some rookie growing pains to go through in order to, hopefully, reach his potential.    
 
 Alfredo Aceves  B  He may be the lone resident of Planet Aceves (which may or may not be too far in the universe from Planet Manny), but he's been a surprisingly good spot starter, riding the shuttle from Pawtucket to Boston.   Perhaps the climate in Pawtucket more closely resembles his home planet, or perhaps the Tampa Bay Rays and their crazy dome speak to him in ways no one can pretend to understand, as he dominated them in both of his spot starts against them.   All kidding aside, Aceves has shown he can be counted on in spot starts and he's downright decent in small doses.

 The Bullpen: B-

        The Red Sox bullpen has had their ups and downs and the Closer Carousel has made them somewhat dizzy of late.  However, Ben Buchanan of Over the Monster did an excellent analysis of how the Boston 'pen stacks up against the rest of the Cardiac League.    It turns out, despite the closer crisis, the Red Sox could do a lot worse than how they've done so far.

          Junichi Tazawa:  B+  Mostly reliable, but showing signs of overwork.

          Andrew Miller:  B+   When he's not crossing over to the wild side, he can show closer-like dominance.   The walk potential, however, keeps him behind the likes of Koji Uehara for close games in the 9th.

           Andrew Bailey:  C-  He's been atrocious of late, so the C- might sound a little generous, but before his most recent DL stint, he made a pretty convincing closer.   Facing the Rays in his personal house of horrors, The Trop, sent him on a bizarre tailspin of gopher ball madness.   Or maybe he wasn't as ready to return from the DL as the Red Sox thought.

          Alex Wilson:  B  He's a solid middle-relief option who can go multiple innings.  

          Craig Breslow:  B  He's had some hiccups since returning from the DL stint that began his season, but he's reliable for the most part.  

          Clayton Mortensen:  D  Mortensen is in DFA limbo after briefly being activated from the DL.   Ineffectiveness had reduced Morty to mop-up role and last-resort multi-inning reliever when games went into extra innings.   Simply put, there were too many better options and Morty became the odd man out.  

          Koji Uehara:  A-  Koji has stepped in and provided, at least for the time being, a solution to the closer crisis, avoiding the need for an unfortunate reality show called "Who Wants to Be The Red Sox Closer".   His personality suits the job and, although he's vulnerable to the occasional long ball and wearing down from overuse, those high-fives are part of what has made this team so much fun to watch

  The Bench:  B+

         Bench depth has helped launch the Red Sox to 50 wins through the first three months of the season.  

     Mike Carp (1B, OF):  B+  Carp has been a steal for the Red Sox, who picked him up this spring after the Mariners jettisoned him.   He's got some pop in the bat and while he's no great glove, he's a great player to give starters days off or to pinch hit late in games.

     Jonny Gomes (OF):  B-  It's a high grade for a rather low batting average, but Gomes has lifted this team both on the field in late-inning dramatics and off in his clubhouse presence.

     David Ross (C):  C+   Before the concussion(s), Ross was solid behind the plate, especially in throwing out base runners and handling the pitching staff, but very inconsistent in the batter's box.  Now, he's pretty much a non-factor after landing on the 60-day DL.

     Pedro Ciriaco (2B, SS, 3B): D   He was a spark plug in 2012 on an otherwise dismal team, but he didn't find the same success this year and has since been shipped to the Padres.  

     Ryan Lavarnway, Brandon Snyder, Jonathan Diaz:  Incomplete

   
The Manager:  A

         If the season were to end today, John Farrell would be a candidate for Manager of the Year for taking the Red Sox from worst to first in the toughest division in baseball.   He's a world of improvement over last year's ringmaster of the Cirque du Poor Play.   I may disagree with his use of Andrew Bailey in close games or running into so many outs on the bases, but overall, he's one of the chief contributors to Extreme Makeover: Red Sox Edition.  

The Front Office:  A  

        As with John Farrell, it's hard not to give Ben Cherington and company an A for the moves that have led to the Red Sox having the best record in the American League (and third best in baseball).   What happens in the second half remains to be seen (2011 wasn't that long ago!), but the wholesale disinfection of the clubhouse has paid huge dividends in the team's resilience after particularly painful losses and the ability to come back from deficits late in games.  

The Team:  A   

        51-34.   First place in the AL East.   Third best record in baseball.  'Nuff said.  

     

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