#1 SP, Jon Lester: Lester is the one most likely to have a consistently good season, given his track record. After all, he was named the Opening Day starter for a reason. He's also the one most likely to pitch at least 200 innings, though he fell short last season. He has stated coming into this season that he wants to take more of a leadership role on the staff and now is as good of an opportunity as any. At 28, he is in his prime and has the potential to be in the running for a Cy Young. The key will be keeping the pitch count (and walks) down and going deep into games.
#2 SP, Josh Beckett: Beckett goes into this season with a thumb issue that bears watching. That said, he had a strong Spring Training and looks ready to start off the season on a good note. He took a lot of flak in the offseason for his part in the "chicken and beer" kerfluffle and for putting on weight as the season went on. Still he finished the season with an ERA under 3 (2.89 to be exact) and until he hurt his ankle in September, he was one of the best pitchers in the league. This would be a good year for him to break the "even year curse"--over the course of his career with the Red Sox, he has always pitched better in odd-numbered years than even numbered years. In order to contend, the Sox desperately need him to be a reasonable facsimile of the pitcher he was up until the final 2 weeks of last year.
#3 SP, Clay Buchholz: Last year, Buchholz' season was derailed by a broken back. He only pitched the first 2 1/2 months of the season before back pain sidelined him and he was later diagnosed (later being the operative word here) with a stress fracture. His ERA before the injury was a very respectable 3.48. If he can stay healthy and keep the ball down in the zone, it would go a long way toward solidifying the Red Sox rotation. If he struggles or gets hurt, the lack of pitching depth gets exposed in a heartbeat.
#4 SP, Felix Doubront: It's make-or-break time for Doubront, who is out of options and lost a year due to injury last season. He came to camp in much better shape this year and pitched impressively in ST. Can he keep up the quality pitching over the course of the season? That remains to be seen. However, what I saw this spring gives me reason for hope.
#5 SP, Daniel Bard: Bard is an experiment-in-progress this season. He's going from 8th inning setup man to starting pitcher, which is no small change from an innings standpoint. Going from pitching one inning to five plus changes a pitcher's approach to the game. He has to pace himself more and not throw every fastball at 100 mph. The results in ST were less than convincing that the rotation is where he belongs, but the Red Sox are committed to giving him the chance to start and hoping he can better command his stuff with each start. Command is going to be an issue for him and high pitch counts could mean early exits and more exposure of an already questionable bullpen. However, it's hard to imagine he'll be worse than Lackey last year.
CL, Alfredo Aceves: When Andrew Bailey went down with his bum thumb, Bobby V named Aceves the closer to start the year. Was this move to prevent the fiery pitcher from threatening mutiny after he lost out on a spot in the rotation? Perhaps, but there's a chance the versatile Aceves can thrive in this role, today's results notwithstanding. Someone needs to hold the fort down until Bailey comes back and Aceves appears better suited than Melancon to close in a market like Boston.
RP, Mark Melancon: Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland netted this former closer for the Houston Astros who is being tried in the setup role for the Red Sox. His results in ST were less than inspiring, however, and today he wasn't fooling the Tigers he faced. Let's hope for improvement sooner rather than later because there are few alternatives for this role.
RP, Franklin Morales: Morales is one of the two lefties in the Red Sox bullpen to start the season and of the two, he has by far the best chance of staying with the team. His ST innings were limited due to a health scare that has since been resolved. Of the remaining relievers, he is the only other one who could take over the setup role if Melancon can't get in a groove, but that would take him out of the situational lefty role.
RP, Matt Albers: Albers had an up and down season in 2011, with the "up" coming early on and the "down" blowing his ERA up to over 4. Until he can prove himself more consistent, he will likely be relegated to low-leverage situations.
RP, Scott Atchison: Atchison is an underrated long reliever/spot starter who posted a 3.62 ERA last season. He's not dominant by any stretch of the imagination, but he can give the Sox some quality innings when called upon.
RP, Vicente Padilla: Padilla can be hit or miss and features that slow eephus curveball that can really throw hitters off. He doesn't give me too much confidence in high-leverage situations, however.
RP, Michael Bowden: Like Doubront, this is make-or-break time for Bowden. His previous stints in the majors have been unsuccessful and he's out of minor-league options. He hasn't shown me he can be trusted when the game's on the line, however, and right now it looks like the bullpen has plenty of mop-up guys.
RP, Justin Thomas: Another candidate for mop-up duty, Thomas brings a career ERA over 6 and owes his roster spot to being left-handed and to Bobby V wanting to carry 13 pitchers. I predict he will be the first to go once Andrew Miller becomes available or V wants to add another bench player.
Coming Attractions: They're not on the 25-man roster now, but Aaron Cook, Rich Hill, and Daisuke Matsuzaka are on the horizon and have the potential to shore up the shaky pitching staff. Cook projects to be available the soonest, after getting a few more starts in Pawtucket under his belt. If either Doubront or Bard prove incapable of holding their spots in the rotation, Aaron Cook could be waiting in the wings. He has a May 1 opt-out date and he looked healthy and strong in ST.
Rich Hill could be back as early as May. He was dominant last year up until his elbow gave out and needed Tommy John. Dice-K could be back before the All-Star Break if all goes well. What he will bring in his return is unknown, given the enigma he has been so far in his Major League career. Bobby V's presence and his experience managing in Japan could ease his transition back into the rotation or it could have no effect at all. Predicting Dice-K can prove to be an exercise in futility.
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