Yes, it's still early in the off-season and there are still deals to be made, but I'm not so sure I like what I've been hearing from the Red Sox suits this week. Should we really be hearing this much at all? The suits have been criticized for comments to the media (the Teixeira debacle last year) and now I'm beginning to see why. Telling the fans that next year will be a "bridge" year is not going to sell a lot of marked-up tickets now, is it? Which bridge do they have in mind, by the way? The Tobin? Will this off-season's moves or non-moves send fans plunging into the Mystic River? Or, less melodramatically speaking, will it threaten the sellout streak?
Let's talk a little bit about the division the Red Sox must play in. Sure, you have the Jays and the O's, then the upstart Rays, but you also have a team that has a significant financial advantage over all 29 other teams as well as over twice as many championships as even the winner of the second most World Series rings. We all know who that team is. The Yankees and the Rays each pose very different challenges to the Red Sox. The Yankees have the resources to have an all-star at virtually every position. They're the mansion that's out of place in the middle-class neighborhood. The Red Sox have a lot of resources too, especially compared to the Rays, Pirates, Royals, and other small-market teams, but the Yankees even dwarf the Red Sox payroll. The Yankees have a juggernaut offense and now some pretty good pitching too. Mariano Rivera's arm is age-proof. The Rays have young, athletic players like Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and Ben Zobrist, a premiere power hitter in Carlos Pena and a very talented young pitching staff. Injuries and the pressures of having to follow up a phenomenal 2008 season caught up with the Rays in 2009, but I have no doubt they will contend next year and as long as those talented players are still on the team and still contributing like they have been.
What does all this mean for the Red Sox? For one, that an offense that replaces Mike Lowell's bat with that of Casey Kotchman (one of the rumors floating around) and lacks either Bay or Holliday in left field looks like a 80-85 win max team that could finish in 3rd or 4th place. Add Bay (or possibly Holliday) and Beltre (provided Fenway improves his hitting) and you get some improvement, but still not enough to mount much of a challenge to the Yankees. As far as challenging the Rays goes, well, we haven't picked up any defensive catchers yet, have we? They're stuck with another year of Tek due to putting that player option in the deal he signed last year and what player wouldn't turn $3M down? V-Mart has a great bat, but defensively he isn't much better than Tek, except for the fact that he can catch Wake. Max Ramirez (is it just me or are the Red Sox really into collecting Ramirezes?) should the trade go through, is also weak defensively.
If the Red Sox were in the AL Central, they might stand a chance with a mediocre offense, but we can't just pluck Boston out of Massachusetts and drop it somewhere in the midwest. If so, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Toronto would surely follow suit! The Yankees would get lonely over there with no one left to play and they'd pluck New York City out of New York and it would defeat the purpose entirely. The Big Apple just wouldn't look the same sitting in the middle of Iowa!
The only way the Red Sox can give the Yankees some serious competition is with a bat like Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of the order (and the glove that comes with that bat is not bad either) or if a bat is absolutely out of the question, an arm like Roy Halladay or Felix Hernandez at the head of the rotation. I have questions about Beckett coming into this year. Last year was a mixed bag; he won 17 games, but had some real problems with home runs late in the season, as well as a slow start early on. Lester is almost ready to be a true #1 starter (let's put him at a 1.5). Buchholz has shown he has the potential to be great, but I'm still seeing the shakiness. Daisuke--he should be better than last year (he'd BETTER be!) and Wake is Wake. Harden would have been a nice pickup, had the Rangers not beat them to it. Duchsherer is another possible pickup. They got Bonser, but that ERA north of 5 isn't convincing me of anything other then Penny 2.0. Dare we hope Wake finds the fountain of youth in the off-season?
Come on, Red Sox front office! Ditch the bridge and compete next season. The AL East race isn't the same without the Red Sox in the middle of it. If not for the fans, do it for the young core of the team, whose prime years you don't want to waste waiting for some prospects who may never pan out.
LET'S GO RED SOX!!!!
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