My ALCS Rotation

The fact is, in 2008, the Red Sox ace is Jon Lester. He's shown it since May and so far in two post-season starts. Unfortunately, since the Angels forced Game 4 last night, Lester will not be available on full rest until Game 2 on Saturday. Having pitched 107 pitches in last night's outing, it's probably better not to pitch him on short rest Friday night. That said, here is how I hope the ALCS rotation shakes out:

Game 1: Dice-K. It's his turn to pitch and he has been better on the road than at home. I hope he can go deeper into the game than his last start.

Game 2: Lester. Lester needs to be able to pitch twice in this series. Pitching him in Game 2 will have him on normal rest as early as Game 5, which is on Thursday, Oct. 16. Also, it puts the best pitcher on the mound in a game they really should try to win, to give them a chance at the very least to split.

Game 3: Beckett. Beckett is a question mark right now, with his recent oblique strain and his less-than-stellar start on Saturday. Pitching Beckett in Game 3 gives the bullpen some rest from Friday, when they will undoubtedly have to go several innings in relief of Dice-K.

Game 4: Byrd. This was a tough one. Wake in relief does give rise to a catcher dilemma, but he is no longer dominant over the Rays. They've given him trouble all year. Byrd pitched a very good Game 4 of last year's ALCS, albeit for the opposing team. I think Byrd just might have a slight post-season edge over Wake.

Game 5: Lester or Dice-K. If the team is behind and needs a clutch outing from the ace, pitch Lester in Game 5 at home. If the team is ahead or tied, pitch Dice-K and save Lester for Game 7

Game 6: Dice-K or Beckett. If Dice-K doesn't pitch in Game 5, pitch him in Game 6. If Dice-K does pitch Game 5, pitch Beckett in Game 6

Game 7: Beckett or Lester. If Lester was not used in Game 5, he pitches Game 7. If Lester is used in Game 5 and Dice-K in Game 6, then Beckett goes in Game 7.

As you can see, the rotation for 5-7 is situational. If I had to commit to one for each of the last three games, I would go with Lester in Game 5, Dice-K in Game 6 and Beckett in Game 7 (with fingers crossed that he can be dominant in a deciding game).

With four starters used in the ALCS, they will probably need an extra bullpen arm. Since neither of our "left over" arms (Aardsma and Timlin) are reliable in any sense of the word, it's like choosing the lesser of the two evils. Both drive me nuts when they're on the mound, but I'd have to go with Timlin over Aarsdma because Timlin has more post-season experience. I can't remember when Aardsma had a decent outing. Timlin will surprise me once in a while, but Aardsma's gone downhill since his first DL stint. He's also young and more likely to crumble under pressure. So, I shudder to say this, but if the alternative is Aardsma, bring on Timlin.