A New Direction

After a 2-month long (was it really ONLY 2 months?) search, the Red Sox have finally named Terry Francona's successor. Bobby Valentine it is! Valentine is a colorful and sometimes controversial character in the baseball universe. It was a bold choice on the part of the front office and I believe it's the right one. A new voice and a new managerial style is needed after the Red Sox spent the seasons following the 2007 World Series championship gradually losing their edge both within their division and within the American League.

What Valentine brings to the Red Sox contrasts rather dramatically with what Francona brought. While Francona was unassuming and not one to ruffle feathers in the clubhouse or with the front office, Valentine is unafraid to challenge the status quo. Francona's hands-off style worked well with the 2004-2007 teams, but as some of the leaders from that era either departed or saw playing time reduced and new players replaced them, leadership among the players eroded, leading to the September 2011 collapse. The Red Sox need someone like Valentine to get them back on track. A strong, assertive personality who will hold the players accountable for the success of the team is just what this team needs in 2012. That and a couple of decent starting pitchers to round out the rotation.

With Valentine aboard, the Red Sox can now concentrate on putting together the 2012 team. Pitching, both starting and bullpen, should be priority number one. The Red Sox have consistently been in the bottom half of the league in team ERA, while division rivals like the Rays and Yankees ranked near the top. Improve the pitching and the offense doesn't feel like they have to score 8-10 runs every game to win.

Aside from pitching, the Red Sox must decide what to do about right field and catcher. J.D. Drew is, in all likelihood, gone and I'm not sold on either Reddick or Kalish as the starting right fielder. Reddick's plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired and Kalish missed almost an entire year of development with injury. Of the two, I think Kalish has the higher ceiling, but he'll most likely need some time in Pawtucket to make up for lost time. That's where a free agent, preferably a righty, would be helpful, as long as it doesn't take a Crawford-esque contract to sign him. Beltran brings a lot to the table when he's healthy, but I fear he'll rival J.D. Drew in DL time. His age would necessitate a short term (1-2 year) deal. Cuddyer would make sense if he's not too expensive in dollars and years. As for catcher, I think it's time to bid farewell to Tek and let Salty and Lavarnway split time behind the plate.

What to do about Papi? He has suitors among other AL East teams--namely the Blue Jays and the Orioles and they will dictate the market for an aging slugger who plays almost exclusively as a DH. It pains me to call him "aging" since he's only 2 short weeks older than me, but in pro sports years, that's how it goes. He had a phenomenal year in 2011, which makes it all the more of a gamble to re-sign him. Sign him to a multi-year deal and risk a sharp decline, as well as tying up the DH spot for that much longer. Let him walk and risk him continuing his recent success, but for one of the division rivals. If it were up to me, no more than a 1-year deal with a team option for a second year. If that's not enough, Lavarnway can DH when he's not catching, getting him more at-bats in the process.

Winter meetings are next week! It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox will do. I'm not expecting anything like the Gonzalez/Crawford extravaganza of last off-season, but I don't think something like that is needed this year.

Oh, What A Circus!

The Red Sox have chartered an awfully big bus. After all, it has to be big enough to fit everyone connected with the organization who has been thrown under it in the weeks following the Epic Collapse. It's one thing to hold the team and certain individuals accountable; it's quite another to trash everyone left and right. Principal owner John Henry, who needs a gag order placed on him (and that includes Twitter), even went as far as expressing his opposition to the Crawford signing. And that's not supposed to alienate the Sox left fielder for the next 6 years how? If Mr. Henry didn't approve of the signing, then WHY did he let his GM spend his money? Something just doesn't add up here. Are the Red Sox becoming the American League version of the Dodgers before our eyes?

I'm as embarrassed as any fan about what happened to this team in September, but the dirty-laundry circus going on in October may be even more embarrassing than the 7-20 record in the final month of the season. The question now is how long will it take for the Red Sox to dig their way out of this mess. Having new blood in the GM and manager positions, as long as they aren't too similar in style and philosophy to Epstein and Francona, may help. Cherington, if he is indeed the next GM, is a disciple of Epstein and that worries me. It's not enough of a change in philosophy to set the team back on the right track. As for the manager, that has yet to be decided, but this team needs a strong leader to change the culture in the clubhouse and ensure the team's preparation coming out of Spring Training. No more Fort Myers Country Club!

The Red Sox have a long offseason ahead of them and an enormous amount of work to do. First order of business: A GM (if it hasn't already been decided) and a manager. Ownership needs to get its act together yesterday.

Charlie Brown, Lucy, The Tortoise, The Hare, and the 2011 Red Sox

I'm back from the blogging DL to wax metaphoric, among other things, about WHAT THE FRICKITY-FRACK HAPPENED TO THE 2011 RED SOX. When September began, the Red Sox were a half-game up on the Yankees in the AL East and 9, that's NINE games up on the Rays. What transpired in the next four weeks would be too ludicrous, too outlandish to believe if you're not a Red Sox fan and not familiar with the decades of futility that preceded 2004.

Remember the story of the Tortoise and the Hare? If not, here's the Cliff Notes version: The tortoise and the hare decide to race each other. While the tortoise is plodding along slowly but surely, the overconfident hare takes a nap along the way, sure he could snooze a while and still beat the poky turtle. Surprise surprise! The tortoise crosses the finish line first! In the context of the AL East in 2011, the Red Sox were the hare (despite having a couple guys who are tortoises on the basepaths) and the Rays were the tortoise (despite their youth and athleticism). The Sox, laden with all-stars and a laid-back skipper, took a nap in September, to the tune of an atrocious 7-20 record. The Rays, while not setting the world on fire, gained ground on the Sox by simply playing good baseball closing the gap little-by-little over the course of the month until they passed them on the very last day of the season and usurped the Wild Card berth the Sox had taken for granted. The Yankees, who had passed the Red Sox early on in the month, took the division crown.

Even though the Red Sox won only 7 game in September, it seemed as each win could be the one to set them back on the right track. Wake's 200th win, after 9 tries, was a monkey off their back. The 14-inning, 5-hour tangle with the Yankees where MVP candidate Jacoby Ellsbury won it with a 3-run jack, surely that game would spur on a 4-game winning streak and a Wild Card berth, right? Wrong. How about the last game of the season, all the way up to Papelbon's 0-2 pitch to Chris Davis with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th at Camden Yards? Davis doubled, Nolan Reimold followed with another double to tie the game at 3, then the latest member of the Sox Killer Society, one Robert Andino, dealt the death blow with a walkoff RBI to score Reimold. Then, what seemed like 2 seconds later, another Sox killer Evan Longoria hit a walk-off dinger to give the Rays their playoff berth. Lucy, set up that football. Here comes Charlie Brown!

You have to tip your cap to the Rays, who battled back from a 7-run deficit against the Yankees to tie the game, force extra innings, then walk off with the win. It was a microcosm of their September, rallying from 9 games back to overtake the Red Sox and clinch their third post-season berth in 4 years. With their perseverance the deserve to be in the playoffs. While the Red Sox completely imploded, the Rays kept it together and took advantage of an opportunity. How I wish it was the other way around.

This historic crash-and-burn caps off a several-years-long decline from the glory days of 2007 and even 2008, despite missing out on the World Series that year. The team has lost its competitive edge, its hunger to win as many games as they can and take home a championship. No one person is responsible for this decline, rather it's a combination of people and events. Theo Epstein may have brought the Red Sox two high-profile players in the offseason, but his free agent talent evaluation leaves a lot to be desired, as well as his ability put together an elite starting rotation. Terry Francona seems like a wonderful guy with sincerity and integrity. However, in the absence of a strong clubhouse leader, is he really the best manager for a seemingly directionless team? The laid-back demeanor that helps him cope with the pressure cooker that is Boston sports may be detrimental to keeping the team as competitively sharp as their divisional and league rivals.

Sometimes a manager's tenure with a team runs its course and I think this is the case with Francona and the Red Sox. Maybe both team and manager need a fresh start. I'm not familiar with who's available as a replacement, but ideally he would manage the team with a firmer hand, making sure everyone's in shape when they report for Spring Training and emphasizing baseball fundamentals both then and throughout the season.

Other areas of improvement include the coaching staff, particularly Curt Young and Tim Bogar. Pitching, or lack thereof, was the downfall of the 2011 Red Sox. Part of that's on Epstein, but the on-field staff also bears some responsibility for the mess that was Red Sox pitching in September. Even Beckett and Lester got Charlie Browned (Again with the little bald kid! Oh, good grief...) on a regular basis. Starters were hard-pressed to go 6 innings, let alone 7 or 8. Only one pitcher threw a complete game all season (Beckett vs. the Rays on June 15). That left the bullpen completely gassed by the end of the year. The Sox pitchers plunked more batters than any other team in either league.

How about those trainers and that medical staff? Two seasons in a row with an avalanche of injuries isn't just coincidence. How long did it take them to diagnose Clay Buchholz with a stress fracture in his back? Imagine how much sooner he might have been able to return had they diagnosed him correctly right away.

They say it's not how you start, but how you finish. The 2011 Red Sox started terribly and finished even worse. In between they looked like world-beaters, but in the end, that in-between wasn't enough to offset the ugly baseball that bookended the season.

The Glass Menagerie

Look out! The 2011 Red Sox are falling down the 2006-hole! Papi has an achilles heel, Youk and Scoots are moaning "Oh my aching back!" (joining Buchholz, of course) and Red Sox Nation has a collective headache watching the overrated Red Sox offense flail away like blind, disoriented squirrels at pretty much any pitch that pretty much any pitcher throws. Add to all this a "settle for the Wild Card" mentality from the Powers that Be and it's going to be a brutal stretch run for this team. They look like the woebegone April version who lost 10 of their first 12 games and played baseball like blindfolded 5-year-olds playing Pin The Tail on the Donkey. Guess what? The blindfolded 5-year-olds are back and have no earthly clue where they're throwing the ball. How they stumbled upon a triple play last night is a mystery to me, but even the aforementioned blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile.

Something needs to be done about this team's training and conditioning regimen: They're made of glass! First the pitchers started dropping like flies and now the hitters are looking like players in the Old Timers' Game. Lowrie is one twinge away from managing to get hurt again and he's hitting and fielding atrociously to boot. Gonzo looks like Sean Casey, but with a better glove and looks like he's one sudden head turn away from a neck brace. Crawford may need to connect himself with an eye chart. Reddick has come back down to earth, as predicted, and still has some plate discipline issues. Tek's average is plummeting again. Only Ells (who provided the singular clutch hit of the series against Tampa "We Own The Red Sox at Fenway" Bay), and to some extent Pedey, are hitting and playing the type of baseball they're capable of. Ells and Pedey are great players, but they can't do it all themselves. It's only a matter of time before they get dragged down by the rest of the team.

The pitching has not been terrible, but it hasn't been great either, save for Lester's gem in the first game of yesterday's double-header. Bedard's pitching well, but getting no run support, just like back in Seattle. Of course, the Red Sox made the Mariners' offense look pretty damn good last weekend. Beckett's been getting no run support all season. The run support even dried up for Lackey today.

Good luck on that road trip, Red Sox, because you're gonna need it. As for me, I need to step away for the sake of my sanity. If that makes me a "bad fan" so be it. I get too emotionally invested in these games and it takes a toll. I had to get this rant out of my system before going on the blogging and Red Sox-watching DL. If things turn around for the Sox, that's great, but I'm not counting on it. In the meantime, I need to try to give my mind (not to mention my blood pressure) a little break from it all.

Winning the Division Does Matter

MLB may have taken away the division winner's right to choose the playoff schedule, but home field advantage could be very important to the Red Sox for another reason and that reason is the Texas Rangers. Even though the AL West is about as close as the East right now, I still think the Rangers have the best chance of winning that division. If the Rangers hold their lead and finish with a better record than the Tigers, then they (the Rangers) will face the Wild Card team, which is practically guaranteed to be either the Yankees or the Red Sox, and have home field advantage. If the Red Sox end up as the Wild Card, that means they have to face a team that they do not match up well against and play as many as 3 of 5 games in a ballpark where they have not had much success. If the Red Sox win the division, however, they will play the team from the Central (likely the Tigers, against whom they went 5-1 this season) and only have to play as many as 2 of 5 away from home. They would also have home field advantage should they advance to the ALCS because whoever wins the East will, barring anything crazy happening, have the best record in the league. Even if it happens that they face the Rangers in the ALCS, at least they would play up to 4 games at Fenway. Therefore, it's not only pride that would come with an AL East win.

It could be that the Indians win the Central and the Angels win the West, but the most likely scenario is the Tigers and the Rangers. Home field advantage goes out the window for whatever AL team wins the pennant and represents the league at the World Series, but for the first two rounds of the playoffs, the advantage is within reach for the Red Sox. I hope they are hungry for a divisional win after losing out the the Yankees and the Rays the past 3 years. They need not lose their competitive edge settling for the Wild Card.

Jacoby MVP-sbury

Before last night, Jacoby Ellsbury had never had a walk-off hit in his major-league career. Tonight, he has two in a row! Last night, it was a single that drove in a pinch-running Salty. Tonight, it was a majestic shot into the stands in straightaway center field. Both nights, Ells and the Red Sox got it done in the bottom of the 9th, avoiding the bullpen toll of extra innings.

The starters of both walk-off games, Beckett last night and Wake tonight, can commiserate about paltry run support. Beckett got 2 runs and Wake got 3. Beckett gave up 2 runs and Wake gave up 3. Two tie games, two walk-off wins, one hero. Carl Crawford passed the walk-off torch to his fellow speedster tonight. With the Yankees steamrolling the White Sox, each Red Sox win has been essential to staying on top in the division race. Each team has one more game against their AL Central opponents before facing each other this weekend. The Red Sox have newcomer Erik Bedard facing old friend Justin Masterson. I like Masterson. He's a class act and a very talented young pitcher who has put together an excellent season for the Tribe. That said, I hope the Red Sox hand him a loss tomorrow and help Erik Bedard get his first win in a Red Sox uniform.

Bedard will be working with a reduced pitch count tomorrow (75-80 pitches) and may still have a little rust from his DL stint, so patience--not an area of great strength for me--will be necessary. According to scouts, the stuff is there. I'm looking forward to seeing how he transitions to the big market and the pennant race. Some run support for him would be nice. He didn't get a whole lot of that with the M's.

Back to Jacoby and the amazing season he's having so far. Once again, he has as many home runs as Adrian Gonzalez. He's batting .317 with 18 HR and 65 RBI out of the leadoff spot, with a .374 OBP and an .885 OPS. He has the highest batting average of all center fielders in the league and the second highest in the majors. All this after missing almost all of last year.

Pedey's another player who has bounced back admirably after a season-ending injury last year. Since June, he's become the Pedey he was before the fouled that ball off his foot and broke a bone that Red Sox Nation is now all-too-familiar with. Who else without a medical degree had heard of the navicular bone before Pedey's injury? He started out this season slowly, but once he got his balky knee checked out in June, the peace of mind he gained from the procedure fueled his return to Pedeyness and paved the way for the Legend of the Muddy Chicken. (Laser Show is so 2010) He was named AL Player of the Month for July, a month in which he put together his career-best 25-game hitting streak (which actually began in late June and extended through almost all of July).

Then there's Gonzo. He still leads the majors in batting average (.357) and RBI (90) but the power's down from his days as a Friar. Sometimes when the average rises, the power falls. He's also coming off of shoulder surgery in the off-season. When he's driven in more runs than any other player in baseball and gets hits more often than any other player in baseball, I'll take that any day. He plays a stellar first base to boot.

Pitching FAIL

If this Red Sox team has a glaring weakness, it's their starting pitching. Their starters have a combined ERA of 4.11, which ranks them 9th in the league and 20th overall. Those aren't championship-caliber numbers. Not even close. The average AL team's starting pitchers' ERA is 3.98, making the Red Sox rotation's number below average. The reason they're in first place in the league (as of tonight, however, only by a single game) is their offense, defense, and bullpen. After Lester and Beckett, the drop-off in the rotation is pretty steep. With Buchholz shelved for the season with a stress fracture in his back, the team will have to look to Erik Bedard to provide a reliable presence as the #3 starter. That's a lot to ask of a guy coming off a knee injury and having to adjust to a new team in a large market with sky-high expectations.

Tonight, neither the starter (the maddeningly inconsistent John Lackey) nor the relievers (Daniel Bard and Matt Albers) could keep the ball in the ballpark. The Tribe clubbed 4 dingers off Red Sox pitching: 2 off Lackey, 1 off Bard and 1 off Albers. Let's hope this was just a bad night and not the start of a trend. NESN, with whom I usually have no problem, tempted fate to the nth degree by repeating a few too many times statistics on how long Bard and Albers had gone without giving up a run.

The Red Sox starting pitching is going to have to improve if they are to hang on to the division lead and play deep into October. Had Lackey rose to the occasion tonight and pitched a quality start, it could have taken some of the pressure off Bedard to stabilize the rotation.