Monday, February 21, 2011

Can You Feel The Energy?

There's a lot of good chi flowing out in Red Sox spring training camp in Fort Myers. Players are showing up healthy and in high spirits, ready to get this 2011 season underway. Adrian Gonzalez is starting to swing a bat well ahead of schedule. Youk's been swinging like the thumb injury that ended his season last August never happened. Pedey's foot's holding up just fine and his mouth hasn't skipped a beat. Tek and Salty are like peas and carrots. Carl Crawford is predicting 6-year-old D'Angelo "Little Papi" Ortiz's rise to YouTube stardom as the heir apparent to Batting Stance Guy. Oh, and Beckett's predicting triple-digit wins for the Sox this season. Optimism is high and the team is hungry to put the injurious 2010 season behind them.

So, can this team live up to all the expectations, both the fans' and their own? It certainly has the talent to be a scary-good team. The lineup, whose loss of V-Mart and Beltre were more than offset by the acquisition of Crawford and Gonzalez, is very deep, if lefty-heavy. The lefty load can be mitigated against left-handed pitching with righties Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald in the outfield and switch-hitter (and lefty-killer) Jed Lowrie in the infield. Lowrie is ultra-versatile in the infield--he can play all four positions. Likewise, Cameron and McDonald can both play all three outfield positions.

Now, what about the pitching? The men on the mound were part of the problem last year, both in the back end of the rotation and in the bullpen. While the rotation is the same: Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K, the bullpen has been revamped, with Bobby Jenks changing his White Sox to red and Dan Wheeler joining his former Rays teammate Crawford in trading the dome for the Green Monster. Papelbon remains the closer, hoping to rebound from a shaky season where he blew 8 saves and Bard gets help from Jenks and possibly Wheeler as well in the setup role. Okajima and Rich Hill are among the lefties vying for a slot in the pen, with Wake, Aceves, and Doubront in the mix for long relief/spot starts. Curt Young brings a new perspective to the Sox staff, and, seeing how strong the Oakland staff was last year, that could be a very good thing.

There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about the 2011 Red Sox season. It looks to be an exciting one that could resemble 2007 a lot more than 2010. Baseball is unpredictable and we know too well what crazy things can go on over the course of the season, like laser shows off the foot, freak thumb injuries, charging third basemen, mono, AT&T Park, among other potential calamities. One thing the Red Sox can be sure about is that, as a team, they are heading in the right direction.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

I'm Ready...

Truck Day is only 3 days away. Pitchers and catchers report for duty on Feb. 13, and the rest of the squad is due 4 days later. Workouts begin on the 15th for pitchers and catchers and on the 19th for the rest. The first game action happens on the 26th, with a split-squad doubleheader against Boston College and Northeastern and Grapefruit League play begins the next day.

Yes, my friends, Red Sox Spring Training 2011 is upon us and another year of Boston baseball is on the horizon. The offseason for the Sox was huge and the front office, of which I have been rather critical in this blog, really stepped up and made much-needed improvements to the team. They improved the offense and defense by bringing in the likes of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford and revamped the bullpen with Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. There wasn't much they could do with the starting rotation, with five starters pretty much locked into their rotation spots.

On paper, the Red Sox look like the team to beat, at least in the American League. The Phillies, with their uber-rotation of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels could give them a run for their money as the overall best on-paper team. On paper doesn't always translate to on the field, however. Injuries, under-performance of key players, and various and sundry other factors come into play over the course of a 162-game season. Let's take a look at some of the potential strengths and weaknesses of the 2011 team:

Strengths: Provided everyone in the starting lineup stays healthy and performs to their ability, the Red Sox look to be a run-producing machine. They have speed in Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford, power in Papi, Youk, and Adrian Gonzalez, and tough outs in Youk, Crawford, Gonzalez, and Pedey, who each have the potential of hitting at least .300.

Defensively, with the addition they look solid in at least 3 infield positions. The outfield looks drastically improved with Carl Crawford in left, JD Drew in right, and a healthy (we hope!) Ellsbury in center.

Weaknesses: After Lester and Buchholz, there are a lot of questions in the rotation. Will Lackey bounce back from a disappointing 2010 where he had to adjust to playing in the AL Beast? Will Beckett ever return to dominance or did he jump the shark in his disastrous 2010 campaign? Dice-K isn't as much of a question mark as he is a continuing enigma. He is what he is and it's doubtful he will ever change his perplexing ways. Curt Young looks to be an excellent pitching coach (Oakland's problem certainly did not lie in its pitching), so there's hope he'll be able to at least straighten Beckett and Lackey out. If he can figure out Dice-K, he's a bona fide genius!

Another potential weakness of the 2011 team is the guy in the mask squatting behind the plate. V-Mart was an adventure defensively, but the idea of the unproven, oft-injured Salty as the starting catcher is about as scary as walking straight into a lion's den. It isn't the offense I'm worried about as much as the defense. Salty has a history of the throwing yips and that could make pitchers very nervous.

Could Go Either Way: The 2011 Red Sox bullpen going into Spring Training looks like this:

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon, who has a lot to prove since he's been on the decline of late
Setup: Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks.
Middle Relief: Dan Wheeler
Long Relief/Spot Starter: Tim Wakefield
Lefty specialist: ????

Myriad lefties are competing for the lefty specialist role, including Hideki Okajima, Dennys Reyes, Felix Doubront, Andrew Miller, and Rich Hill. Oki is the only one with a major-league contract, but that doesn't necessarily make him the favorite. He, too, has to earn his way onto the team.

As is their nature, bullpens are hard to predict from year to year. The Sox made some good pickups in Jenks and Wheeler, but Pap has been struggling and the lefty role will come down to who does best in Spring Training.

All things considered, the Sox have fewer concerns than most teams going into the season. The Yankees have a questionable rotation after Sabathia. The Rays have lost many of their stars to free agency and have applied the Manny-Damon band-aid to their offense. The Angels flailed around during the off-season and missed out on many of their free-agent targets. The Rangers look pretty good, but they did lose Cliff Lee and they have to fill his rotation spot.

It looks to be an exciting season to be a Red Sox fan. Barring a bizarre rash of injuries ( a la 2010) the Sox should be contenders from game 1 through game 162.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Shuffling The Deck

It's an exciting time to be a Red Sox fan, for sure. The additions of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler make us wish Spring Training started yesterday. In the meantime, the hot stove continues to throw changeups to Major League Baseball's competitive landscape. For example, the American League bid farewell to Cliff Lee and Zach Greinke and welcomed Adrian Gonzalez and Adam Dunn. The AL East was shaken up by the Red Sox' blockbuster acquisitions, the Yankees missing out on Cliff Lee, the Blue Jays getting a new manager (former Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell), and the Rays losing several of their stars to free agency (two of whom were snapped up by the Red Sox). In the Central, the Tigers got V-Mart, re-signed Inge, and signed Joaquin Benoit (is it Benoit in Detroit or Ben-wah in Detrwah?). The White Sox got Adam Dunn and Jesse Crain and the Twins imported Nishioka from Japan. The most active team in the West has been the A's, who signed Hideki Matsui, traded for Josh Willingham and David DeJesus, and re-signed Rich Harden.

In the NL, the Phillies won the Cliff Lee sweepstakes and added a fourth ace to their already obscenely loaded rotation. The Padres lost Gonzalez, but gained three prospects in Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly, and Reymond Fuentes, a utility guy in Eric Patterson, a shortstop in Jason Bartlett, and a second baseman in Orlando Hudson. The Brewers got Greinke and Shaun Marcum in trades. The Nationals ponied up big-time for Jayson Werth and added Rick Ankiel. The Marlins signed Javier Vazquez, who is a different pitcher in the NL than he is in the AL, and extended Ricky Nolasco. The Cubs got Kerry Wood back.

Still up for grabs in this hot stove season are Adrian Beltre, who's looking for a contract for at least 6 years with a full "Don't Touch My Head" clause, former Rays closer Rafael Soriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour, Brandon Webb, Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee, among others. Beltre has seen the competition for his services drop considerably once the Red Sox got Gonzalez and he said "No way" to the A's. Soriano and Fuentes could require a 3-year commitment. Adam LaRoche isn't so sure about joining the O's. Webb has piqued the Rangers' and Cubs' interest. No Christmas vacation for major league GMs, that's for sure!

Sunday, December 19, 2010

One Southpaw Short Of A Bullpen

With less than a week left before Christmas, the Red Sox are almost done with their off-season shopping. One more item on the wish list remains: A lefty for the bullpen. Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler strengthen the 'pen from the right side, but the hole vacated by the non-tendered (and rapidly declining) Okajima needs to be filled with another go-to southpaw. Brian Fuentes is still out there on the free agent market and Felix Doubront waits in the wings as an internal option, as does Rich Hill. Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, Arthur Rhodes, and JC Romero (remember him?) are also on the market. Fuentes would likely require a 3-year commitment, which the Sox are loath to make. Former Sox targets Scott Downs, Matt Guerrier, and Jesse Crain have already signed on for 3-year deals with other teams. Dan Wheeler took a bit of a hometown discount, being a native Rhode Islander, and agreed to a 1-year deal while Jenks took 2-years.

The Sox would like to have Doubront start the season in AAA and, although Rich Hill was successful against lefties last season, the sample size was microscopic at only a handful of innings. I think their best bet would be to try to sign one of the free agents whose name is not Fuentes or Romero (been there, done that in the case of the latter) to a 1 or 2 year deal. Once they get that lefty, the 2011 team, barring a few minor-league transactions, will be pretty much complete. It's been a huge offseason for the Red Sox, even more so than the Phillies, who added Cliff Lee to their uber-rotation, leaving the Yanks in the lurch. On paper, it looks like the tables have turned in baseball's epic rivalry, but remember-- no season, no game, has ever been played on paper. Still, I like the Red Sox' chances...

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Ho Ho Ho! Santa Comes Early for Sox

On Sunday night, the jolly old elf donned a Red Sox cap and jersey as he delivered the first big present under the Christmas tree of Red Sox Nation: A superstar first baseman by the name of Adrian Gonzalez. Then, on Wednesday night, he put another gigantic present under the tree, one worth $142 million--Carl Crawford. Both players are .300 hitters and gold-glove defenders; one brings the power and the other brings the speed. They make a pitcher's life easier by providing run support and making plays that help keep the ERA down. If everyone stays healthy, they have a lineup that can easily compete with that of the Yankees.

All they need now are a few reliable bullpen arms. Even the best offenses can't bail out a leaky bullpen night after night. Besides Bard, Pap, Doubront, Wake, and maybe Atchison, they need 7th-8th inning guys to take some of the burden off of Bard. Scott Downs is probably the best candidate, with Matt Guerrier, Pedro Feliciano, Rich Hill, and Kevin Gregg among other possibilities.

The Sox are also in the hunt for Russell Martin, who was recently non-tendered by the Dodgers. Martin has been struggling with both offense and defense, but with their new lineup they can afford to take a chance on him and Salty could use more work in Pawtucket.

It's been a thrilling off-season so far for the Sox and Spring Training can't come soon enough. 2011--it rhymes with 2007. Just sayin'...

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Howz 'Bout A Little Drama?

The pharmaceutical industry can thank Red Sox Nation for any bump in sales that may have occurred today as the Adrian Gonzalez trade hung in the balance over a contract extension. Rumors of a failed trade and the epic fallout/backlash made much of today a tense one for the Sox and the fans, but this evening, the trade finally went through and the Nation can sleep tonight knowing that Gonzalez will spend at the very least 2011 in a Boston uniform. It's likely an extension is in place or very close, but will not be announced until after opening day in order to avoid a luxury tax hit.

In other baseball news, the Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a 7-year, $126 million deal, so Crawford's asking price just shot up to stratospheric levels. With the money-is-no-object Yankees in on him, teams like the Red Sox and the Angels have their work cut out for them. Cliff Lee is also still up for grabs.

With the Gonzalez trade completed, at least the Red Sox can focus their energy now on issues like fixing the bullpen, whether or not to keep pursuing Crawford, and possibly finding another catcher so Salty can work on a few things in Pawtucket (and show he can stay healthy). The Winter Meetings start tomorrow, so it will be an interesting few days. Right now, I'm just relieved the Gonzalez trade went through.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Move Over, Youk!

Across the diamond to third base, that is. The Red Sox have agreed to a trade for a guy they've been coveting for a few years now, the game-changer that they thought they'd have to empty the farm to get: Adrian Gonzalez is coming to Boston in 2011! The package is rumored to be Casey Kelly, Reymond Fuentes (2009 first round draft pick) and Anthony Rizzo (top first baseman prospect who is now blocked by Gonzalez). A contract extension is also rumored to be in the works.

With another lefty on board, it may actually be a better idea to pursue Werth over Crawford because they need right-handed bats. All of this is good news for the Angels, who are supposedly interested in both Crawford and Beltre. If the Red Sox end up signing Werth, that eliminates them from the competition for Crawford as well as for Beltre, who no longer has a position on the team with Youk moving to third to accommodate Gonzalez. If the Sox signed Crawford, they would be too lefty-heavy in a division with a glut of top lefty pitchers such as Sabathia, Price, Matusz, and possibly Pettitte and Lee (Lester would be included in this group, but, obviously, the Sox would not be facing him).

It will be interesting to see what the Sox do in the free agent market as far as outfielders and filling bullpen needs. Getting Gonzalez is a giant step in the right direction.