May has been an interesting month for the Red Sox. Coming into tonight's game against the Phillies, they are in the same position in the standings that they were after their kick-ass April. However, that wasn't the case earlier on in the month.
After lighting the baseball world on fire for the first month of the season, the Red Sox crashed down to earth like an apocalyptic asteroid in the early days of May. They suddenly looked like a different team--a painful reminder of last year's debacle, starting the month out on a 3-9 skid. Their April success looked like a tease, a mirage. Their woes began in Texas, where they were swept by the Rangers. Then came their return to Fenway, which saw them drop 3 of 4 to the Twins and 2 of 3 to the Blue Jays, both opponents with records under .500. The began to recover down at the Trop, taking 2 of 3 from the Rays, and then sweeping the Twins for a 5-game winning streak. They experienced a bit of a backslide in Chicago, losing the first two games there, but they took the final game and then 3 of 4 from old friend Tito and the Indians and the first game of their interleague tilt with the Phillies.
At one point during their "dark period", they had slipped to third place in the division behind both the Yankees and the Orioles. To their credit, they pulled out of their funk and started bearing some resemblance to their April selves by putting together a couple of winning streaks and some thrilling come-from-behind victories, two of which came on back-to-back days this weekend. With Buchholz continuing to dominate and Lester being a generally reliable, if not dominant, starter and the emergence of a healthy (and trimmed down) John Lackey, the starting pitching has been solid. Doubront has improved of late as well, while Dempster has been scuffling something fierce.
On the hitting side of the game, while the bats have been streaky and strike out like there's no tomorrow, they still have scored the second most runs in all of baseball, trailing the Tigers by a mere 4 runs. Leading the Red Sox offense so far have been Pedey (.333/.425/873), Papi (.346/.408/1.030), and Nava (.289/.393/.857). Although his average is not as high as those three, Mike Napoli leads the team in RBI with 39 and has hit as many big flies (8) as Papi and Will Middlebrooks. Nava, for all he has been overlooked over the course of his career, has made a case so far this season for All-Star consideration.
Will this team be in the mix in August and September? A lot will depend on the health of key players (especially Papi, Lester, Buchholz, Pedey, and, yes, Lackey). Team chemistry has vastly improved since last season and they have shown some resilience, especially in a month that had started out so poorly for them. No one is running away with the AL East this season. The Yankees and Red Sox look pretty evenly matched as far as pitching and offense go. Both teams are relying on some veterans coming back from down seasons and while the Red Sox may have the edge in the starting rotation, they Yankees have the edge in the bullpen. The Orioles are going to stick around, remaining within striking distance of the division or wild card. The Rays have taken a step back and their pitching has struggled for the first time in a few years, but you just can't count them out yet. The Jays thought they had built a juggernaut in the offseason, but so far they've sputtered. Can they turn it around or have they dug themselves too deep a hole?
Overall, this season has been a refreshing turnaround from the recent past. There have been signs that this team will be contenders up to the very end. There have also been areas of concern, such as the lack of production from third base due to a struggling Will Middlebrooks that the team may be able to survive now, but if other things go wrong, it could become a bigger problem. The amount of free passes given out by Red Sox pitchers is a little unsettling as well. Only the atrocious Houston Astros have walked more batters than the Red Sox. So far, the pitchers have been limiting the damage caused by walks, as their ERA is 6th in the AL, but it would behoove them to stop handing out bases on balls like candy on Halloween. Cutting down on the walks will help starters go deeper into games and relievers from creating late-inning messes.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Monday, April 29, 2013
Are They For Real?
Are these 2013 Red Sox for real? They of the MLB-leading 18-7 record with one more game left in April? One could be forgiven for thinking this is all just a lovely dream, given all that has happened in recent years. After all, they just came off a season that was their worst in over four decades, a season that made them the laughingstock of baseball after a late season collapse the year before and a few years of steady decline before that. You think one off-season can fix all that had been ailing the team and the franchise as a whole for the past several years?
Well, let's take a look at what the Red Sox have done to clean house: They traded some high-profile malcontents (Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez) to the Dodgers for Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and assorted others. They promptly gave the passive-aggressive skipper of the 2012 shipwreck, Bobby Valentine, the axe after the season ended and hired (well, traded for) familiar face John Farrell as the new manager. Farrell, along with GM Ben Cherington, replaced the 2012 coaching staff, taking Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield from his staff in Toronto and hiring Juan Nieves, Greg Colbrunn, Victor Rodriguez, and former PawSox manager Arnie Beyeler. Cherington brought in free agents with a positive clubhouse reputation along with some pretty good baseball skills.
Compared to their recent predecessors, particularly the 2011 and 2012 teams, the 2013 Red Sox came into the season with less lofty expectations and more preparation for Opening Day. They were determined to get this season started on the right foot and they made their statement by going 4-2 during the first week of the season. It's a far cry from 0-6 or 1-5! They experienced some letdown in their first home series against the O's, but bounced back by sweeping the Rays, then the Indians. A 13-0 loss against the A's on a miserable, cold rainy night didn't dampen their spirits either; they won the "rubber match" the next day to take the series from Oakland, then they took care of business against the Astros with a 4-game sweep.
Can they keep this torrid pace up? Most likely not, if only because it's next to impossible to play over .700 ball over the course of a 162-game season. However, there have been some good signs in this first month that this team can be a surprise contender:
1. It all starts with the pitching. Maybe it's the return of former pitching coach John Farrell, albeit in the role of manager, that has Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz performing like it's 2010 again. Maybe Juan Nieves, their current pitching coach deserves some credit also. Ryan Dempster has pitched well in the #3 spot and Felix Doubront is showing some improvement in his ability to pitch deeper into games in his last two starts. John Lackey, who has made only two starts due to bicep inflammation has been better than expected in his return from Tommy John surgery.
2. John Farrell has brought stability, respect, and unity back to the clubhouse. Not being Bobby Valentine helps, but Farrell had a rapport with many key players on the team even before he became manager. I was skeptical in the off-season when the Red Sox were searching for their new manager that Farrell was the right man for the job, given his record in Toronto and that annoying compensation issue that had become a joke after compensation for Theo Epstein dragged out for months. However, Farrell seems to have restored order in the clubhouse and commanded the respect of the players.
3. Character counts. There are no players with the cache of Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, or Prince Fielder in the 2013 Red Sox lineup, but they are near the top of the league in runs scored nonetheless. They have shown a resilience that the 2011 and 2012 teams lacked. After a 13-zip loss to the A's last week, the 'll and '12 teams would have dropped that Wednesday afternoon game and lost the series. They probably would have managed only a split with the Astros as well.
Guys like Daniel Nava, the feel-good story of the 2010 season, epitomize what resilience is about. When healthy, Nava is a legit major-leaguer, despite being cut by his college team and not being drafted, relying on the independent leagues for professional baseball experience. He was an "out of the box" pickup for the Red Sox and he has worked his ass off to improve his plate approach and his defense. Surround him with other players who put the team first and good things will happen.
There is still a lot of work to be done in this young season and being on top in April doesn't necessarily mean they'll be on top at the end of September. They will need to keep beating the weaker teams and holding their own against the stronger ones in order to return to the playoffs for the first time in four years. Staying healthy is essential, as is having quality depth in AAA. Could they be this season's answer to the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A's, or Washington Nationals? I'm looking forward to finding out.
Well, let's take a look at what the Red Sox have done to clean house: They traded some high-profile malcontents (Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez) to the Dodgers for Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and assorted others. They promptly gave the passive-aggressive skipper of the 2012 shipwreck, Bobby Valentine, the axe after the season ended and hired (well, traded for) familiar face John Farrell as the new manager. Farrell, along with GM Ben Cherington, replaced the 2012 coaching staff, taking Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield from his staff in Toronto and hiring Juan Nieves, Greg Colbrunn, Victor Rodriguez, and former PawSox manager Arnie Beyeler. Cherington brought in free agents with a positive clubhouse reputation along with some pretty good baseball skills.
Compared to their recent predecessors, particularly the 2011 and 2012 teams, the 2013 Red Sox came into the season with less lofty expectations and more preparation for Opening Day. They were determined to get this season started on the right foot and they made their statement by going 4-2 during the first week of the season. It's a far cry from 0-6 or 1-5! They experienced some letdown in their first home series against the O's, but bounced back by sweeping the Rays, then the Indians. A 13-0 loss against the A's on a miserable, cold rainy night didn't dampen their spirits either; they won the "rubber match" the next day to take the series from Oakland, then they took care of business against the Astros with a 4-game sweep.
Can they keep this torrid pace up? Most likely not, if only because it's next to impossible to play over .700 ball over the course of a 162-game season. However, there have been some good signs in this first month that this team can be a surprise contender:
1. It all starts with the pitching. Maybe it's the return of former pitching coach John Farrell, albeit in the role of manager, that has Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz performing like it's 2010 again. Maybe Juan Nieves, their current pitching coach deserves some credit also. Ryan Dempster has pitched well in the #3 spot and Felix Doubront is showing some improvement in his ability to pitch deeper into games in his last two starts. John Lackey, who has made only two starts due to bicep inflammation has been better than expected in his return from Tommy John surgery.
2. John Farrell has brought stability, respect, and unity back to the clubhouse. Not being Bobby Valentine helps, but Farrell had a rapport with many key players on the team even before he became manager. I was skeptical in the off-season when the Red Sox were searching for their new manager that Farrell was the right man for the job, given his record in Toronto and that annoying compensation issue that had become a joke after compensation for Theo Epstein dragged out for months. However, Farrell seems to have restored order in the clubhouse and commanded the respect of the players.
3. Character counts. There are no players with the cache of Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, or Prince Fielder in the 2013 Red Sox lineup, but they are near the top of the league in runs scored nonetheless. They have shown a resilience that the 2011 and 2012 teams lacked. After a 13-zip loss to the A's last week, the 'll and '12 teams would have dropped that Wednesday afternoon game and lost the series. They probably would have managed only a split with the Astros as well.
Guys like Daniel Nava, the feel-good story of the 2010 season, epitomize what resilience is about. When healthy, Nava is a legit major-leaguer, despite being cut by his college team and not being drafted, relying on the independent leagues for professional baseball experience. He was an "out of the box" pickup for the Red Sox and he has worked his ass off to improve his plate approach and his defense. Surround him with other players who put the team first and good things will happen.
There is still a lot of work to be done in this young season and being on top in April doesn't necessarily mean they'll be on top at the end of September. They will need to keep beating the weaker teams and holding their own against the stronger ones in order to return to the playoffs for the first time in four years. Staying healthy is essential, as is having quality depth in AAA. Could they be this season's answer to the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A's, or Washington Nationals? I'm looking forward to finding out.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Power Surge, Starring Will Middlebrooks
Lester's 7 innings of shutout ball were almost an afterthought in The Game Where Will Middlebrooks Smacks The Living Hell Out Of The Baseball. After an opening series win in Da Bronx, which found the Sox successful, if lacking in pop, the Boston bats made up for lost time by knocking 6 round-trippers in a 13-0 rout of the Blue Jays. Half of those homers were hit by Will Middlebrooks, who came a few feet shy of becoming the first Red Sox ever to go yard 4 times in a game. He added a double between homers #1 and 2. The other three were hit by Nava, Ells, and Napoli respectively.
The one-sided slugfest had Blue Jays fans forgetting about booing John Farrell and turning on their pitchers instead, especially R.A. Dickey. The reigning Cy Young winner was a case in point for what happens when the knuckleball doesn't knuckle. He had trouble from the get-go, with the Red Sox putting up 5 runs in the first inning, culminating in Middlebrooks' first HR of the day. After being shut out in yesterday's game, the Red Sox would not be denied. They come home from their first roadie of the season with a 4-2 record, a vast improvement over 0-6 (2011) and 1-5 (2012). It's still very early days, but the 2013 Red Sox are starting out on the right foot and playing hungry. They will be deserving of an enthusiastic and appreciative crowd tomorrow afternoon at Fenway. It's important for them to carry those good vibes from the road trip into their series against a team that has bedeviled them of late: The Baltimore Orioles. Picking up at least 2 of 3 from another division rival would be so very sweet! Let's do it, boys!
The one-sided slugfest had Blue Jays fans forgetting about booing John Farrell and turning on their pitchers instead, especially R.A. Dickey. The reigning Cy Young winner was a case in point for what happens when the knuckleball doesn't knuckle. He had trouble from the get-go, with the Red Sox putting up 5 runs in the first inning, culminating in Middlebrooks' first HR of the day. After being shut out in yesterday's game, the Red Sox would not be denied. They come home from their first roadie of the season with a 4-2 record, a vast improvement over 0-6 (2011) and 1-5 (2012). It's still very early days, but the 2013 Red Sox are starting out on the right foot and playing hungry. They will be deserving of an enthusiastic and appreciative crowd tomorrow afternoon at Fenway. It's important for them to carry those good vibes from the road trip into their series against a team that has bedeviled them of late: The Baltimore Orioles. Picking up at least 2 of 3 from another division rival would be so very sweet! Let's do it, boys!
Monday, April 1, 2013
Opening Day, As It Should Be
It may have been April Fool's Day, but the Red Sox weren't fooling around this afternoon in the Bronx. After beginning and ending the last two seasons in truly abysmal fashion, they opened the 2013 season as if they were a tall glass of lemonade on a 100 degree summer's day. They pitched, they got on base, they drove in runs, they played defense, and they hustled their way to an 8-2 victory over the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Yes, it's only one game out of 162, but it was crucial for the 2013 Red Sox to start off on the right foot and an Opening Day victory is a step in the right direction, to avoid the 0-6 and 0-4 holes that marked the beginning of 2011 and 2012.
A completely revamped coaching staff, headed by former pitching coach-turned-manager John Farrell prepared the Red Sox for this day. Not a single coach remains from 2012. On the bench, as Farrell's right-hand man is Torey Lovullo, who was his bench coach in Toronto and a former PawSox manager. At first base, last year's PawSox skipper Arnie Beyeler. Brian Butterfield occupies the windmill position in the third base coach's box. Juan Nieves, former White Sox bullpen coach, is the new pitching coach. Greg Colbrunn and Victor Rodriguez are the hitting coaches. Dana Levangie is the bullpen coach. These are John Farrell's people and, as was not the case with Bobby Valentine, friction among the coaching staff is unlikely.
With Big Papi still cooling his heels on the DL, the Red Sox lineup will have to rely more on speed and smart baserunning to score runs. That, and getting on base to begin with. The approach against C.C. today was a good sign. Jackie Bradley, Jr., making his major league debut having skipped AAA entirely, showed impressive plate discipline, working three walks (as well as making a kick-ass catch in left to snatch an extra base hit away from Cano). Salty also showed improved patience at the plate by matching Bradley walk-for-walk.
Jon Lester didn't have a dominant outing in his first Opening Day win, tossing only five innings and laboring through a 34-pitch fourth, but he limited the damage in that rough inning and kept his team in the game. He outpitched C.C. Sabathia, who also threw five innings, but allowed twice as many runs. The 'pen preserved the lead, throwing 4 scoreless innings, including a five-pitch sixth by Koji Uehara.
The AL East race is wide open this season, with the Yankees facing injuries and an increasingly geriatric (for baseball) roster, the Rays always managing to be in the thick of things, the Blue Jays making some big off-season moves, and the Orioles looking to prove last season wasn't a fluke. The Red Sox, in contrast to the O's, are looking to prove that last season WAS a fluke. As long as they play with the passion and hunger they played with today, they will be an enjoyable team to watch again.
A completely revamped coaching staff, headed by former pitching coach-turned-manager John Farrell prepared the Red Sox for this day. Not a single coach remains from 2012. On the bench, as Farrell's right-hand man is Torey Lovullo, who was his bench coach in Toronto and a former PawSox manager. At first base, last year's PawSox skipper Arnie Beyeler. Brian Butterfield occupies the windmill position in the third base coach's box. Juan Nieves, former White Sox bullpen coach, is the new pitching coach. Greg Colbrunn and Victor Rodriguez are the hitting coaches. Dana Levangie is the bullpen coach. These are John Farrell's people and, as was not the case with Bobby Valentine, friction among the coaching staff is unlikely.
With Big Papi still cooling his heels on the DL, the Red Sox lineup will have to rely more on speed and smart baserunning to score runs. That, and getting on base to begin with. The approach against C.C. today was a good sign. Jackie Bradley, Jr., making his major league debut having skipped AAA entirely, showed impressive plate discipline, working three walks (as well as making a kick-ass catch in left to snatch an extra base hit away from Cano). Salty also showed improved patience at the plate by matching Bradley walk-for-walk.
Jon Lester didn't have a dominant outing in his first Opening Day win, tossing only five innings and laboring through a 34-pitch fourth, but he limited the damage in that rough inning and kept his team in the game. He outpitched C.C. Sabathia, who also threw five innings, but allowed twice as many runs. The 'pen preserved the lead, throwing 4 scoreless innings, including a five-pitch sixth by Koji Uehara.
The AL East race is wide open this season, with the Yankees facing injuries and an increasingly geriatric (for baseball) roster, the Rays always managing to be in the thick of things, the Blue Jays making some big off-season moves, and the Orioles looking to prove last season wasn't a fluke. The Red Sox, in contrast to the O's, are looking to prove that last season WAS a fluke. As long as they play with the passion and hunger they played with today, they will be an enjoyable team to watch again.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Status Update on Red Sox Offseason Shopping Cart
The Winter Meetings are like a 4-5 day long Black Friday for MLB teams, minus the deep discounts and long lines. Big-ticket free agents fly off the "shelves" and trades are made as teams stock up for the coming season. So far, the Red Sox' cart contains Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino (as in the Flyin' Hawaiian). Both have been signed through the 2015 season and they fill holes that needed to be filled. They are solid pickups who can hold the fort down while the prospects continue developing. Before the meetings started, the Sox had brought David (no relation to Cody) Ross as a backup catcher and Jonny Gomes to play left field.
Having filled most of their position player spots (they may still be looking for bench players or a shortstop), the task that remains is a doozy: Find a starting pitcher or two that can stabilize a rotation full of gargantuan question marks, preferably one who isn't a gargantuan question mark himself. Let's take a look at who they have and why their question mark is so large and unwieldy:
1. Jon Lester: What the eff happened to Lester in 2012? He looked like Jon Lester. He sounded like Jon Lester. He didn't however, pitch like Jon Lester--at least not the Jon Lester we were used to seeing since his breakout season in 2008. He had no apparent injury, but his velocity was down and he just wasn't putting away the batters like he used to. At 28, he was supposed to be in his prime. Was 2012 a down year or is he having a puzzling early decline? Can John Farrell help him find his form again, even if he is no longer the pitching coach?
2. Clay Buchholz: 2012 was A Tale of Two Clay Buchholzes. One was completely lost on the mound, pitching batting practice to opposing lineups and posting an ERA over 8 in the early weeks of the season. The other was dominant, looking like his 2010 self for the middle of the season. In September, after the Bailout Trade, he looked to be regressing to his early season form. Which Clay Buchholz will we see in 2013? Can he stay healthy?
3. Felix Doubront: Doubront didn't do too badly for a rookie. His season was essentially the opposite of Buchholz's. He came out of the gate strong, hit a wall mid-season, and after being given a breather late in the season in the way of a skipped start, he finished strong. His biggest bugaboo in his first full season in the majors was not being able to pitch deep into games due to getting into deep counts early and often. He also struggled at times to keep the ball in the park. Will these struggles continue and keep him in the back of the rotation or will he learn how to better pace himself now that he has a full season under his belt?
4. John Lackey: The last big free agent starting pitcher signed, Lackey has struggled mightily in a Red Sox uniform. He was average or just a little below in 2010, but absolutely dreadful in 2011. His 2011 was most likely due to an elbow badly in need of Tommy John surgery, which he had after the season. He should be ready to go in 2013, a year and several months post-surgery. The question is, how will he pitch in 2013? Will he be the John Lackey who was the Angels' ace before heading east to Boston three years ago? Will he be the 2010 John Lackey? Or, heaven forbid, will he be the 2011 version of himself? After all, Dice-K didn't improve much after his TJ surgery, did he? It's more likely he'll be the 2010 version, which is #4 starter material on a team that hopes to contend in the AL East.
Ideally, the Red Sox would be looking for an ace who can take some of the pressure off of Lester and Buchholz, who can slide into the #2 and #3 slots, which are more in line with their ability than the #1 and #2 ever were. Alas, the only pitcher who comes close to slotting in the #1 spot appears to be the pitching version of Carl Crawford and not a good fit for the ultra-intense Boston market. That would be Big Free Agent Prize Zach Greinke. Right below him would be Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking a 6+ year megadeal. The Nats snapped up Dan Haren, who has a high upside despite an injury-filled down year in 2012.
Below Haren, you have the likes of Brandon McCarthy, who is coming off a brain injury (from taking a line drive to the head last September), but has a high upside as long as he is free of any lingering physical or psychological effects of said injury, Kyle Lohse, who has only pitched in the NL, Ryan Dempster, who struggled in his only AL gig last year with the Rangers and will be in his age 36 season, and Edwin Jackson, who would probably pitch to a mid 4 ERA in the AL East. R.A. Dickey's name has been bandied about as a trade candidate, but the Mets' asking price is exorbitantly high for a 38-year-old knuckleballer coming off a career season. Gavin Floyd as a trade candidate projects to be a #4 or #5 guy in the AL East and the Red Sox have a glut of #4s and #5s already. My guess is that the Red Sox land one (or two) of McCarthy, Lohse, Dempster or Jackson. If McCarthy looks to be fully recovered from that scary brain injury, he's probably my favorite because of his AL experience and the fact that he's younger than Lohse and Dempster. Jackson is also on the younger side, but he can be inconsistent and a little too close to what the Sox already have.
Having filled most of their position player spots (they may still be looking for bench players or a shortstop), the task that remains is a doozy: Find a starting pitcher or two that can stabilize a rotation full of gargantuan question marks, preferably one who isn't a gargantuan question mark himself. Let's take a look at who they have and why their question mark is so large and unwieldy:
1. Jon Lester: What the eff happened to Lester in 2012? He looked like Jon Lester. He sounded like Jon Lester. He didn't however, pitch like Jon Lester--at least not the Jon Lester we were used to seeing since his breakout season in 2008. He had no apparent injury, but his velocity was down and he just wasn't putting away the batters like he used to. At 28, he was supposed to be in his prime. Was 2012 a down year or is he having a puzzling early decline? Can John Farrell help him find his form again, even if he is no longer the pitching coach?
2. Clay Buchholz: 2012 was A Tale of Two Clay Buchholzes. One was completely lost on the mound, pitching batting practice to opposing lineups and posting an ERA over 8 in the early weeks of the season. The other was dominant, looking like his 2010 self for the middle of the season. In September, after the Bailout Trade, he looked to be regressing to his early season form. Which Clay Buchholz will we see in 2013? Can he stay healthy?
3. Felix Doubront: Doubront didn't do too badly for a rookie. His season was essentially the opposite of Buchholz's. He came out of the gate strong, hit a wall mid-season, and after being given a breather late in the season in the way of a skipped start, he finished strong. His biggest bugaboo in his first full season in the majors was not being able to pitch deep into games due to getting into deep counts early and often. He also struggled at times to keep the ball in the park. Will these struggles continue and keep him in the back of the rotation or will he learn how to better pace himself now that he has a full season under his belt?
4. John Lackey: The last big free agent starting pitcher signed, Lackey has struggled mightily in a Red Sox uniform. He was average or just a little below in 2010, but absolutely dreadful in 2011. His 2011 was most likely due to an elbow badly in need of Tommy John surgery, which he had after the season. He should be ready to go in 2013, a year and several months post-surgery. The question is, how will he pitch in 2013? Will he be the John Lackey who was the Angels' ace before heading east to Boston three years ago? Will he be the 2010 John Lackey? Or, heaven forbid, will he be the 2011 version of himself? After all, Dice-K didn't improve much after his TJ surgery, did he? It's more likely he'll be the 2010 version, which is #4 starter material on a team that hopes to contend in the AL East.
Ideally, the Red Sox would be looking for an ace who can take some of the pressure off of Lester and Buchholz, who can slide into the #2 and #3 slots, which are more in line with their ability than the #1 and #2 ever were. Alas, the only pitcher who comes close to slotting in the #1 spot appears to be the pitching version of Carl Crawford and not a good fit for the ultra-intense Boston market. That would be Big Free Agent Prize Zach Greinke. Right below him would be Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking a 6+ year megadeal. The Nats snapped up Dan Haren, who has a high upside despite an injury-filled down year in 2012.
Below Haren, you have the likes of Brandon McCarthy, who is coming off a brain injury (from taking a line drive to the head last September), but has a high upside as long as he is free of any lingering physical or psychological effects of said injury, Kyle Lohse, who has only pitched in the NL, Ryan Dempster, who struggled in his only AL gig last year with the Rangers and will be in his age 36 season, and Edwin Jackson, who would probably pitch to a mid 4 ERA in the AL East. R.A. Dickey's name has been bandied about as a trade candidate, but the Mets' asking price is exorbitantly high for a 38-year-old knuckleballer coming off a career season. Gavin Floyd as a trade candidate projects to be a #4 or #5 guy in the AL East and the Red Sox have a glut of #4s and #5s already. My guess is that the Red Sox land one (or two) of McCarthy, Lohse, Dempster or Jackson. If McCarthy looks to be fully recovered from that scary brain injury, he's probably my favorite because of his AL experience and the fact that he's younger than Lohse and Dempster. Jackson is also on the younger side, but he can be inconsistent and a little too close to what the Sox already have.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Let's Play Red Sox GM, Shall We?
Now that the hideous 2012 season is over, Bobby V is gone, and a new manager in John Farrell is in place, I'm coming out of blog hiding to play GM, like the guys at Over The Monster just finished doing. First, while I was skeptical of the Farrell hire at first, especially given the dreaded word "compensation," it's only fair to give the guy a chance and see what he can do in a place that likely seems more comfortable and more like home to him than Toronto ever did. In Farrell, the Red Sox have someone who will be on the same page as the front office and trusted enough to hire his own coaching staff. He has brought Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield from his Toronto staff to be bench and third base coach, respectively. First base, pitching, and hitting coaches haven't yet been chosen and Gary Tuck's status as bullpen coach is unknown.
All that said, it's time to look at the roster and see what can be done to make the team at least somewhat competitive next year without sacrificing the future. The Humongous Trade of Epic Proportions (HTEP for short) that went down on August 25, where the desperate-for-a-playoff-berth Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of bad contract purgatory by taking on the hefty money allotted to Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, gave the team oodles of financial breathing room with which to rebuild the team. In order to avoid repeating the mistakes that led to such a historic deal, the Red Sox need to spend their newfound windfall wisely. Ben Cherington has his work cut out for him this offseason; he must decide what approach the Red Sox will take to rebuilding and how to balance the need to reload the team with quality homegrown talent and the need to regain lost trust and credibility with the fanbase by fielding a team that has a fighting chance at a playoff berth.
As to the homegrown talent, there's a lot of it just a year or two away from being major-league ready. The 4 B's (Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and Brentz) headline the group of promising prospects and all four could potentially fill some holes the Sox have going into this offseason. Xander Bogaerts, provided he doesn't physically "outgrow" the position, could become the long-term shortstop the team has been missing since the Nomar trade in 2004. Jackie Bradley, Jr is a center fielder who could make Ellsbury expendable when he hits free agency a year from now. Matt Barnes could be a top of the rotation starter the Red Sox badly need to stabilize their rotation. Bryce Brentz is an outfielder who can fill the left-field slot vacated by Crawford. Unfortunately, Opening Day 2013 is a little too far ahead of schedule for these young guys to reach The Show. Late season 2013 or sometime in 2014 is a better bet. The holes need to be filled before then and this is where Cherington needs to make some decisions.
Let's start with the bane of the Red Sox' existence from September 2011 to the first days of October 2012: Starting pitching. Lester fell off a cliff from his previous years' production. Buchholz had a rather odd season where he was horrendous the first month or so, then terrific for most of the summer, but turned mediocre in the fall. Doubront showed flashes of brilliance with his strikeout stuff, but couldn't pitch economically enough to go deep into games. Morales held his own as a starter, but the sample size is too small to project how he would do as a starter over an entire season. Cook, Dice-K, and the various and sundry other fill-in starters were dreadful, for the most part. Lackey missed the year with Tommy John surgery.
With Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, and Lackey each carrying big question marks going into the 2013 season, the rotation looks very unstable. This is where former Red Sox prospect Anibal Sanchez comes in. He may not have the upside of a Greinke or a Haren, but Greinke's history with anxiety disorders makes him a huge risk in the high-pressure, media-frenzied market of Boston baseball (think Carl Crawford) and Haren's bad back scares me (think Josh Beckett). If the Red Sox are going anywhere next year, Lester and Buchholz will have to bounce back. Sanchez slots in as a nice #3, with post-TJ Lackey and a sophomore Doubront bringing up the rear. Lackey could surprise the Sox and pitch like a #2 or #3, or he could be as bad as post-TJ Dice-K.
Starting pitching is where the focus should be for the Red Sox this offseason, but they cannot afford to neglect the bullpen. Most of the pieces for the 2013 are already in place, but the roles might need to be tweaked a bit. Andrew Bailey struggled in his limited opportunities at closer late in the season. Still, he deserves another shot. If he can start the season healthy (and that's a big if, given his history) he has the potential to be at least an adequate closer. If not, Junichi Tazawa, by virtue of his 2012 dominance, deserves a chance. At the very least, Tazawa should be considered a candidate for setup. Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Clayton Mortensen, Franklin Morales and Mark Melancon are in the mix for middle relief, as well as Daniel Bard. Oh, poor mismanaged Daniel Bard! Can Farrell and Pitching Coach To Be Named Later fix him? Is he a candidate for a "change of scenery" trade? Padilla and Atchison are free agents getting on in baseball years. Aceves, with his antics last year, coupled with mediocre to awful pitching has quite frankly worn out his welcome.
With the pitching being taken care of, let's move to first base. This one will not be easy to fill. Whether or not Gonzalez was a good fit in Boston, it will be very hard to replace his production at first, both with the bat and glove. Unlike at the other positions with holes that need to be filled, first base doesn't have an option waiting in AA or AAA. Lars Anderson turned out to be overmatched at first and was traded to Cleveland. The free agent options at first include Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche (if his option isn't picked up by the Nationals), Carlos Lee, and old friend Kevin Youkilis. LaRoche had an excellent season with the Nats last year and he's my top pick of this bunch. Many fans would love to see Youk back in a Red Sox uniform, but, sadly, I think his best days are behind him. There's a small chance he could bounce back if he switched back to the less physically demanding first base and he would be an upgrade over the AAAA Mauro Gomez, but I'd like to see a higher than .230 average at an offense-heavy position. A trade target is the Mets' Ike Davis and as long as he doesn't cost too dearly in prospects (Barnes and Bradley, in particular, are nearly untouchable in my opinion), he might be worth a shot. From a marketing standpoint, if he does well in Boston, "I Like Ike" T-shirts would fly off the shelves.
Second base being occupied by Pedey, the next hole to fill is at shortstop. JD Drew's kid brother Stephen is a possibility, but just like big bro, he's been dealing with some injuries lately. Then there's Jose Iglesias. His glove could be a pitcher's best friend. His bat, however, could be the opposing pitcher's best friend (credit to my dad on that one!). If the lineup is stacked with elite and above-average bats who can take some of the pressure off the kid to produce, that's one thing. If there are too many other lightweights in the lineup, as there were post-HTEP in September, then the Sox cannot afford to carry a nearly nonexistent bat in Iglesias, no matter how good his glove. In that case, it might be best to take a gamble on Stephen Drew.
With Will Middlebrooks covering third base, let's move to catcher. Is Salty the answer behind the plate? What about Lavarnway? Can either play at least average defense? Salty has some pop in his bat, but he's an all-or-nothing hitter who whiffs like there's no tomorrow. Lavarnway looked dreadful at the plate in September, but that might have been partly due to the fact that there weren't a whole lot of good bats around him to take the pressure off (as with Iglesias). Lavarnway has a better chance of being a decent hitter than Iglesias does, but his defense, like Salty's, is suspect at the major-league level. If it were my decision, I would keep Lavarnway, trade Salty, and find a defensively strong catcher (Jose Molina, anyone?) to be Lavarnway's backup.
Now, onto the outfield. There is a temptation to trade Ellsbury, who is likely to end up elsewhere when he becomes a free agent. Ells is hard to predict, given his crazy-good season in 2011, bookended by two injury-marred seasons in 2010 and 2012. If he doesn't run into anyone or have anyone sit on him, he could be an MVP contender, or something like that. He's a high-risk trade for that very reason. 2010 and 2012 could severely limit what the Red Sox could get for him in a trade, as well as his choice of agent, who will make sure he enters the free-agent market when his contract expires. If the Red Sox were to hold on to Ells and give him a qualifying offer upon his free-agency, they will receive compensation draft picks. My verdict: Unless they get blown away by an offer, keep Ells for 2013 and take the picks if he walks. After all, Bradley may be ready to take his place in 2014.
For right field, I would sign Cody Ross to a 2 or 3 year deal. Ross is not an elite player, but he is more than adequate with the bat and passable in the field. The latter years of the deal could see Ross at DH.
Left field, the other gaping hole created by the HTEP, like first base, doesn't have any easy answers. Nava was impressive for stretches last year, but his ceiling is AAAA and is more suitable for a bench role as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Kalish is another candidate, but he lost most of 2011 due to injury and needs more time in AAA before he can be counted on as a starting outfielder. Putting him on the bench would only hinder his development. Matt Sullivan, one of the bloggers at Over The Monster, had an interesting suggestion that doesn't seem as bad as it might on first glance: Jason Bay. Bay has been a disaster for the Mets and Sullivan suggested that the Red Sox offer to take Bay off their hands in a trade that also includes first baseman Ike Davis. Bay, 34, is a risk, with his concussion history, but part of his problem in Queens is with the righty-killing Citi Field. Fenway Park was a place where Bay thrived and the Green Monster is a righty power-hitter's best friend. As a stopgap to Brentz or Bogaerts, he makes more sense than one might think.
Last but not least: DH. Big Papi is playing hardball again and wanting 2 years at some pretty high coin, despite missing most of the second half due to a very troubling achilles injury. Due to that injury and the lingering effects it could have on his baserunning and hitting, its very risky to offer him a 2-year deal. To be honest, his kvetching about his contract during the season last year rubbed me the wrong way and proved as yet another distraction (one of few non-Bobby V-related distractions). 1 year at $16 million with a team option for a second year is about as far as I would go. If he wants more than that, call his bluff. Let him test the open market and see what an aging, one-dimensional player with an achilles injury can get. If he walks, having been made a qualifying offer, the Sox pick up draft picks and use the DH to rest position players.
Well, that was an exercise in verbosity! Here's what the team would look like in 2013 if I were in charge:
Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Doubront, John Lackey
Bullpen: Andrew Bailey (closer), Junichi Tazawa (setup), Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales (long relief, swing man), Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill (alternates include Daniel Bard & Alex Wilson)
C: Ryan Lavarnway
1B: Ike Davis (or Adam LaRoche)
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Jose Iglesias (or Stephen Drew)
3B: Will Middlebrooks
LF: Jason Bay (or Ryan Kalish)
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Cody Ross
DH: David Ortiz (or rotating DH)
Bench: Jose Molina, Daniel Nava, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Carlos Linares (alternates include Mauro Gomez and Pedro Ciriaco)
There you have it. I'm not expecting a World Series contender out of the 2013 team or even a playoff berth, but a respectable (over .500) record is well within reach if the team can shake the injury curse of 2010-2012. They will, in all likelihood be stronger contenders in 2014 and/or 2015 if the high-end prospects pan out. It's not too hard, however, to improve on 2012 and I expect them to do just that, if only because Bobby V is no longer in charge.
All that said, it's time to look at the roster and see what can be done to make the team at least somewhat competitive next year without sacrificing the future. The Humongous Trade of Epic Proportions (HTEP for short) that went down on August 25, where the desperate-for-a-playoff-berth Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of bad contract purgatory by taking on the hefty money allotted to Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, gave the team oodles of financial breathing room with which to rebuild the team. In order to avoid repeating the mistakes that led to such a historic deal, the Red Sox need to spend their newfound windfall wisely. Ben Cherington has his work cut out for him this offseason; he must decide what approach the Red Sox will take to rebuilding and how to balance the need to reload the team with quality homegrown talent and the need to regain lost trust and credibility with the fanbase by fielding a team that has a fighting chance at a playoff berth.
As to the homegrown talent, there's a lot of it just a year or two away from being major-league ready. The 4 B's (Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and Brentz) headline the group of promising prospects and all four could potentially fill some holes the Sox have going into this offseason. Xander Bogaerts, provided he doesn't physically "outgrow" the position, could become the long-term shortstop the team has been missing since the Nomar trade in 2004. Jackie Bradley, Jr is a center fielder who could make Ellsbury expendable when he hits free agency a year from now. Matt Barnes could be a top of the rotation starter the Red Sox badly need to stabilize their rotation. Bryce Brentz is an outfielder who can fill the left-field slot vacated by Crawford. Unfortunately, Opening Day 2013 is a little too far ahead of schedule for these young guys to reach The Show. Late season 2013 or sometime in 2014 is a better bet. The holes need to be filled before then and this is where Cherington needs to make some decisions.
Let's start with the bane of the Red Sox' existence from September 2011 to the first days of October 2012: Starting pitching. Lester fell off a cliff from his previous years' production. Buchholz had a rather odd season where he was horrendous the first month or so, then terrific for most of the summer, but turned mediocre in the fall. Doubront showed flashes of brilliance with his strikeout stuff, but couldn't pitch economically enough to go deep into games. Morales held his own as a starter, but the sample size is too small to project how he would do as a starter over an entire season. Cook, Dice-K, and the various and sundry other fill-in starters were dreadful, for the most part. Lackey missed the year with Tommy John surgery.
With Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, and Lackey each carrying big question marks going into the 2013 season, the rotation looks very unstable. This is where former Red Sox prospect Anibal Sanchez comes in. He may not have the upside of a Greinke or a Haren, but Greinke's history with anxiety disorders makes him a huge risk in the high-pressure, media-frenzied market of Boston baseball (think Carl Crawford) and Haren's bad back scares me (think Josh Beckett). If the Red Sox are going anywhere next year, Lester and Buchholz will have to bounce back. Sanchez slots in as a nice #3, with post-TJ Lackey and a sophomore Doubront bringing up the rear. Lackey could surprise the Sox and pitch like a #2 or #3, or he could be as bad as post-TJ Dice-K.
Starting pitching is where the focus should be for the Red Sox this offseason, but they cannot afford to neglect the bullpen. Most of the pieces for the 2013 are already in place, but the roles might need to be tweaked a bit. Andrew Bailey struggled in his limited opportunities at closer late in the season. Still, he deserves another shot. If he can start the season healthy (and that's a big if, given his history) he has the potential to be at least an adequate closer. If not, Junichi Tazawa, by virtue of his 2012 dominance, deserves a chance. At the very least, Tazawa should be considered a candidate for setup. Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Clayton Mortensen, Franklin Morales and Mark Melancon are in the mix for middle relief, as well as Daniel Bard. Oh, poor mismanaged Daniel Bard! Can Farrell and Pitching Coach To Be Named Later fix him? Is he a candidate for a "change of scenery" trade? Padilla and Atchison are free agents getting on in baseball years. Aceves, with his antics last year, coupled with mediocre to awful pitching has quite frankly worn out his welcome.
With the pitching being taken care of, let's move to first base. This one will not be easy to fill. Whether or not Gonzalez was a good fit in Boston, it will be very hard to replace his production at first, both with the bat and glove. Unlike at the other positions with holes that need to be filled, first base doesn't have an option waiting in AA or AAA. Lars Anderson turned out to be overmatched at first and was traded to Cleveland. The free agent options at first include Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche (if his option isn't picked up by the Nationals), Carlos Lee, and old friend Kevin Youkilis. LaRoche had an excellent season with the Nats last year and he's my top pick of this bunch. Many fans would love to see Youk back in a Red Sox uniform, but, sadly, I think his best days are behind him. There's a small chance he could bounce back if he switched back to the less physically demanding first base and he would be an upgrade over the AAAA Mauro Gomez, but I'd like to see a higher than .230 average at an offense-heavy position. A trade target is the Mets' Ike Davis and as long as he doesn't cost too dearly in prospects (Barnes and Bradley, in particular, are nearly untouchable in my opinion), he might be worth a shot. From a marketing standpoint, if he does well in Boston, "I Like Ike" T-shirts would fly off the shelves.
Second base being occupied by Pedey, the next hole to fill is at shortstop. JD Drew's kid brother Stephen is a possibility, but just like big bro, he's been dealing with some injuries lately. Then there's Jose Iglesias. His glove could be a pitcher's best friend. His bat, however, could be the opposing pitcher's best friend (credit to my dad on that one!). If the lineup is stacked with elite and above-average bats who can take some of the pressure off the kid to produce, that's one thing. If there are too many other lightweights in the lineup, as there were post-HTEP in September, then the Sox cannot afford to carry a nearly nonexistent bat in Iglesias, no matter how good his glove. In that case, it might be best to take a gamble on Stephen Drew.
With Will Middlebrooks covering third base, let's move to catcher. Is Salty the answer behind the plate? What about Lavarnway? Can either play at least average defense? Salty has some pop in his bat, but he's an all-or-nothing hitter who whiffs like there's no tomorrow. Lavarnway looked dreadful at the plate in September, but that might have been partly due to the fact that there weren't a whole lot of good bats around him to take the pressure off (as with Iglesias). Lavarnway has a better chance of being a decent hitter than Iglesias does, but his defense, like Salty's, is suspect at the major-league level. If it were my decision, I would keep Lavarnway, trade Salty, and find a defensively strong catcher (Jose Molina, anyone?) to be Lavarnway's backup.
Now, onto the outfield. There is a temptation to trade Ellsbury, who is likely to end up elsewhere when he becomes a free agent. Ells is hard to predict, given his crazy-good season in 2011, bookended by two injury-marred seasons in 2010 and 2012. If he doesn't run into anyone or have anyone sit on him, he could be an MVP contender, or something like that. He's a high-risk trade for that very reason. 2010 and 2012 could severely limit what the Red Sox could get for him in a trade, as well as his choice of agent, who will make sure he enters the free-agent market when his contract expires. If the Red Sox were to hold on to Ells and give him a qualifying offer upon his free-agency, they will receive compensation draft picks. My verdict: Unless they get blown away by an offer, keep Ells for 2013 and take the picks if he walks. After all, Bradley may be ready to take his place in 2014.
For right field, I would sign Cody Ross to a 2 or 3 year deal. Ross is not an elite player, but he is more than adequate with the bat and passable in the field. The latter years of the deal could see Ross at DH.
Left field, the other gaping hole created by the HTEP, like first base, doesn't have any easy answers. Nava was impressive for stretches last year, but his ceiling is AAAA and is more suitable for a bench role as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Kalish is another candidate, but he lost most of 2011 due to injury and needs more time in AAA before he can be counted on as a starting outfielder. Putting him on the bench would only hinder his development. Matt Sullivan, one of the bloggers at Over The Monster, had an interesting suggestion that doesn't seem as bad as it might on first glance: Jason Bay. Bay has been a disaster for the Mets and Sullivan suggested that the Red Sox offer to take Bay off their hands in a trade that also includes first baseman Ike Davis. Bay, 34, is a risk, with his concussion history, but part of his problem in Queens is with the righty-killing Citi Field. Fenway Park was a place where Bay thrived and the Green Monster is a righty power-hitter's best friend. As a stopgap to Brentz or Bogaerts, he makes more sense than one might think.
Last but not least: DH. Big Papi is playing hardball again and wanting 2 years at some pretty high coin, despite missing most of the second half due to a very troubling achilles injury. Due to that injury and the lingering effects it could have on his baserunning and hitting, its very risky to offer him a 2-year deal. To be honest, his kvetching about his contract during the season last year rubbed me the wrong way and proved as yet another distraction (one of few non-Bobby V-related distractions). 1 year at $16 million with a team option for a second year is about as far as I would go. If he wants more than that, call his bluff. Let him test the open market and see what an aging, one-dimensional player with an achilles injury can get. If he walks, having been made a qualifying offer, the Sox pick up draft picks and use the DH to rest position players.
Well, that was an exercise in verbosity! Here's what the team would look like in 2013 if I were in charge:
Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Doubront, John Lackey
Bullpen: Andrew Bailey (closer), Junichi Tazawa (setup), Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales (long relief, swing man), Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill (alternates include Daniel Bard & Alex Wilson)
C: Ryan Lavarnway
1B: Ike Davis (or Adam LaRoche)
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Jose Iglesias (or Stephen Drew)
3B: Will Middlebrooks
LF: Jason Bay (or Ryan Kalish)
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Cody Ross
DH: David Ortiz (or rotating DH)
Bench: Jose Molina, Daniel Nava, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Carlos Linares (alternates include Mauro Gomez and Pedro Ciriaco)
There you have it. I'm not expecting a World Series contender out of the 2013 team or even a playoff berth, but a respectable (over .500) record is well within reach if the team can shake the injury curse of 2010-2012. They will, in all likelihood be stronger contenders in 2014 and/or 2015 if the high-end prospects pan out. It's not too hard, however, to improve on 2012 and I expect them to do just that, if only because Bobby V is no longer in charge.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Farewell to a blog...
I'm shutting down the blog indefinitely, as I can't stomach the watered-down version of baseball the Red Sox have been playing since last September and if I find the games unwatchable, there's really nothing to blog about. There's nothing positive to say--too much negativity gets nauseating to read and to write. Maybe it makes me a fairweather Red Sox fan, but I'm also a baseball fan and I like to see the game played right. If I have to look to another team to see that, then so be it.
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