It may have been April Fool's Day, but the Red Sox weren't fooling around this afternoon in the Bronx. After beginning and ending the last two seasons in truly abysmal fashion, they opened the 2013 season as if they were a tall glass of lemonade on a 100 degree summer's day. They pitched, they got on base, they drove in runs, they played defense, and they hustled their way to an 8-2 victory over the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Yes, it's only one game out of 162, but it was crucial for the 2013 Red Sox to start off on the right foot and an Opening Day victory is a step in the right direction, to avoid the 0-6 and 0-4 holes that marked the beginning of 2011 and 2012.
A completely revamped coaching staff, headed by former pitching coach-turned-manager John Farrell prepared the Red Sox for this day. Not a single coach remains from 2012. On the bench, as Farrell's right-hand man is Torey Lovullo, who was his bench coach in Toronto and a former PawSox manager. At first base, last year's PawSox skipper Arnie Beyeler. Brian Butterfield occupies the windmill position in the third base coach's box. Juan Nieves, former White Sox bullpen coach, is the new pitching coach. Greg Colbrunn and Victor Rodriguez are the hitting coaches. Dana Levangie is the bullpen coach. These are John Farrell's people and, as was not the case with Bobby Valentine, friction among the coaching staff is unlikely.
With Big Papi still cooling his heels on the DL, the Red Sox lineup will have to rely more on speed and smart baserunning to score runs. That, and getting on base to begin with. The approach against C.C. today was a good sign. Jackie Bradley, Jr., making his major league debut having skipped AAA entirely, showed impressive plate discipline, working three walks (as well as making a kick-ass catch in left to snatch an extra base hit away from Cano). Salty also showed improved patience at the plate by matching Bradley walk-for-walk.
Jon Lester didn't have a dominant outing in his first Opening Day win, tossing only five innings and laboring through a 34-pitch fourth, but he limited the damage in that rough inning and kept his team in the game. He outpitched C.C. Sabathia, who also threw five innings, but allowed twice as many runs. The 'pen preserved the lead, throwing 4 scoreless innings, including a five-pitch sixth by Koji Uehara.
The AL East race is wide open this season, with the Yankees facing injuries and an increasingly geriatric (for baseball) roster, the Rays always managing to be in the thick of things, the Blue Jays making some big off-season moves, and the Orioles looking to prove last season wasn't a fluke. The Red Sox, in contrast to the O's, are looking to prove that last season WAS a fluke. As long as they play with the passion and hunger they played with today, they will be an enjoyable team to watch again.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Status Update on Red Sox Offseason Shopping Cart
The Winter Meetings are like a 4-5 day long Black Friday for MLB teams, minus the deep discounts and long lines. Big-ticket free agents fly off the "shelves" and trades are made as teams stock up for the coming season. So far, the Red Sox' cart contains Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino (as in the Flyin' Hawaiian). Both have been signed through the 2015 season and they fill holes that needed to be filled. They are solid pickups who can hold the fort down while the prospects continue developing. Before the meetings started, the Sox had brought David (no relation to Cody) Ross as a backup catcher and Jonny Gomes to play left field.
Having filled most of their position player spots (they may still be looking for bench players or a shortstop), the task that remains is a doozy: Find a starting pitcher or two that can stabilize a rotation full of gargantuan question marks, preferably one who isn't a gargantuan question mark himself. Let's take a look at who they have and why their question mark is so large and unwieldy:
1. Jon Lester: What the eff happened to Lester in 2012? He looked like Jon Lester. He sounded like Jon Lester. He didn't however, pitch like Jon Lester--at least not the Jon Lester we were used to seeing since his breakout season in 2008. He had no apparent injury, but his velocity was down and he just wasn't putting away the batters like he used to. At 28, he was supposed to be in his prime. Was 2012 a down year or is he having a puzzling early decline? Can John Farrell help him find his form again, even if he is no longer the pitching coach?
2. Clay Buchholz: 2012 was A Tale of Two Clay Buchholzes. One was completely lost on the mound, pitching batting practice to opposing lineups and posting an ERA over 8 in the early weeks of the season. The other was dominant, looking like his 2010 self for the middle of the season. In September, after the Bailout Trade, he looked to be regressing to his early season form. Which Clay Buchholz will we see in 2013? Can he stay healthy?
3. Felix Doubront: Doubront didn't do too badly for a rookie. His season was essentially the opposite of Buchholz's. He came out of the gate strong, hit a wall mid-season, and after being given a breather late in the season in the way of a skipped start, he finished strong. His biggest bugaboo in his first full season in the majors was not being able to pitch deep into games due to getting into deep counts early and often. He also struggled at times to keep the ball in the park. Will these struggles continue and keep him in the back of the rotation or will he learn how to better pace himself now that he has a full season under his belt?
4. John Lackey: The last big free agent starting pitcher signed, Lackey has struggled mightily in a Red Sox uniform. He was average or just a little below in 2010, but absolutely dreadful in 2011. His 2011 was most likely due to an elbow badly in need of Tommy John surgery, which he had after the season. He should be ready to go in 2013, a year and several months post-surgery. The question is, how will he pitch in 2013? Will he be the John Lackey who was the Angels' ace before heading east to Boston three years ago? Will he be the 2010 John Lackey? Or, heaven forbid, will he be the 2011 version of himself? After all, Dice-K didn't improve much after his TJ surgery, did he? It's more likely he'll be the 2010 version, which is #4 starter material on a team that hopes to contend in the AL East.
Ideally, the Red Sox would be looking for an ace who can take some of the pressure off of Lester and Buchholz, who can slide into the #2 and #3 slots, which are more in line with their ability than the #1 and #2 ever were. Alas, the only pitcher who comes close to slotting in the #1 spot appears to be the pitching version of Carl Crawford and not a good fit for the ultra-intense Boston market. That would be Big Free Agent Prize Zach Greinke. Right below him would be Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking a 6+ year megadeal. The Nats snapped up Dan Haren, who has a high upside despite an injury-filled down year in 2012.
Below Haren, you have the likes of Brandon McCarthy, who is coming off a brain injury (from taking a line drive to the head last September), but has a high upside as long as he is free of any lingering physical or psychological effects of said injury, Kyle Lohse, who has only pitched in the NL, Ryan Dempster, who struggled in his only AL gig last year with the Rangers and will be in his age 36 season, and Edwin Jackson, who would probably pitch to a mid 4 ERA in the AL East. R.A. Dickey's name has been bandied about as a trade candidate, but the Mets' asking price is exorbitantly high for a 38-year-old knuckleballer coming off a career season. Gavin Floyd as a trade candidate projects to be a #4 or #5 guy in the AL East and the Red Sox have a glut of #4s and #5s already. My guess is that the Red Sox land one (or two) of McCarthy, Lohse, Dempster or Jackson. If McCarthy looks to be fully recovered from that scary brain injury, he's probably my favorite because of his AL experience and the fact that he's younger than Lohse and Dempster. Jackson is also on the younger side, but he can be inconsistent and a little too close to what the Sox already have.
Having filled most of their position player spots (they may still be looking for bench players or a shortstop), the task that remains is a doozy: Find a starting pitcher or two that can stabilize a rotation full of gargantuan question marks, preferably one who isn't a gargantuan question mark himself. Let's take a look at who they have and why their question mark is so large and unwieldy:
1. Jon Lester: What the eff happened to Lester in 2012? He looked like Jon Lester. He sounded like Jon Lester. He didn't however, pitch like Jon Lester--at least not the Jon Lester we were used to seeing since his breakout season in 2008. He had no apparent injury, but his velocity was down and he just wasn't putting away the batters like he used to. At 28, he was supposed to be in his prime. Was 2012 a down year or is he having a puzzling early decline? Can John Farrell help him find his form again, even if he is no longer the pitching coach?
2. Clay Buchholz: 2012 was A Tale of Two Clay Buchholzes. One was completely lost on the mound, pitching batting practice to opposing lineups and posting an ERA over 8 in the early weeks of the season. The other was dominant, looking like his 2010 self for the middle of the season. In September, after the Bailout Trade, he looked to be regressing to his early season form. Which Clay Buchholz will we see in 2013? Can he stay healthy?
3. Felix Doubront: Doubront didn't do too badly for a rookie. His season was essentially the opposite of Buchholz's. He came out of the gate strong, hit a wall mid-season, and after being given a breather late in the season in the way of a skipped start, he finished strong. His biggest bugaboo in his first full season in the majors was not being able to pitch deep into games due to getting into deep counts early and often. He also struggled at times to keep the ball in the park. Will these struggles continue and keep him in the back of the rotation or will he learn how to better pace himself now that he has a full season under his belt?
4. John Lackey: The last big free agent starting pitcher signed, Lackey has struggled mightily in a Red Sox uniform. He was average or just a little below in 2010, but absolutely dreadful in 2011. His 2011 was most likely due to an elbow badly in need of Tommy John surgery, which he had after the season. He should be ready to go in 2013, a year and several months post-surgery. The question is, how will he pitch in 2013? Will he be the John Lackey who was the Angels' ace before heading east to Boston three years ago? Will he be the 2010 John Lackey? Or, heaven forbid, will he be the 2011 version of himself? After all, Dice-K didn't improve much after his TJ surgery, did he? It's more likely he'll be the 2010 version, which is #4 starter material on a team that hopes to contend in the AL East.
Ideally, the Red Sox would be looking for an ace who can take some of the pressure off of Lester and Buchholz, who can slide into the #2 and #3 slots, which are more in line with their ability than the #1 and #2 ever were. Alas, the only pitcher who comes close to slotting in the #1 spot appears to be the pitching version of Carl Crawford and not a good fit for the ultra-intense Boston market. That would be Big Free Agent Prize Zach Greinke. Right below him would be Anibal Sanchez, who is seeking a 6+ year megadeal. The Nats snapped up Dan Haren, who has a high upside despite an injury-filled down year in 2012.
Below Haren, you have the likes of Brandon McCarthy, who is coming off a brain injury (from taking a line drive to the head last September), but has a high upside as long as he is free of any lingering physical or psychological effects of said injury, Kyle Lohse, who has only pitched in the NL, Ryan Dempster, who struggled in his only AL gig last year with the Rangers and will be in his age 36 season, and Edwin Jackson, who would probably pitch to a mid 4 ERA in the AL East. R.A. Dickey's name has been bandied about as a trade candidate, but the Mets' asking price is exorbitantly high for a 38-year-old knuckleballer coming off a career season. Gavin Floyd as a trade candidate projects to be a #4 or #5 guy in the AL East and the Red Sox have a glut of #4s and #5s already. My guess is that the Red Sox land one (or two) of McCarthy, Lohse, Dempster or Jackson. If McCarthy looks to be fully recovered from that scary brain injury, he's probably my favorite because of his AL experience and the fact that he's younger than Lohse and Dempster. Jackson is also on the younger side, but he can be inconsistent and a little too close to what the Sox already have.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Let's Play Red Sox GM, Shall We?
Now that the hideous 2012 season is over, Bobby V is gone, and a new manager in John Farrell is in place, I'm coming out of blog hiding to play GM, like the guys at Over The Monster just finished doing. First, while I was skeptical of the Farrell hire at first, especially given the dreaded word "compensation," it's only fair to give the guy a chance and see what he can do in a place that likely seems more comfortable and more like home to him than Toronto ever did. In Farrell, the Red Sox have someone who will be on the same page as the front office and trusted enough to hire his own coaching staff. He has brought Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield from his Toronto staff to be bench and third base coach, respectively. First base, pitching, and hitting coaches haven't yet been chosen and Gary Tuck's status as bullpen coach is unknown.
All that said, it's time to look at the roster and see what can be done to make the team at least somewhat competitive next year without sacrificing the future. The Humongous Trade of Epic Proportions (HTEP for short) that went down on August 25, where the desperate-for-a-playoff-berth Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of bad contract purgatory by taking on the hefty money allotted to Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, gave the team oodles of financial breathing room with which to rebuild the team. In order to avoid repeating the mistakes that led to such a historic deal, the Red Sox need to spend their newfound windfall wisely. Ben Cherington has his work cut out for him this offseason; he must decide what approach the Red Sox will take to rebuilding and how to balance the need to reload the team with quality homegrown talent and the need to regain lost trust and credibility with the fanbase by fielding a team that has a fighting chance at a playoff berth.
As to the homegrown talent, there's a lot of it just a year or two away from being major-league ready. The 4 B's (Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and Brentz) headline the group of promising prospects and all four could potentially fill some holes the Sox have going into this offseason. Xander Bogaerts, provided he doesn't physically "outgrow" the position, could become the long-term shortstop the team has been missing since the Nomar trade in 2004. Jackie Bradley, Jr is a center fielder who could make Ellsbury expendable when he hits free agency a year from now. Matt Barnes could be a top of the rotation starter the Red Sox badly need to stabilize their rotation. Bryce Brentz is an outfielder who can fill the left-field slot vacated by Crawford. Unfortunately, Opening Day 2013 is a little too far ahead of schedule for these young guys to reach The Show. Late season 2013 or sometime in 2014 is a better bet. The holes need to be filled before then and this is where Cherington needs to make some decisions.
Let's start with the bane of the Red Sox' existence from September 2011 to the first days of October 2012: Starting pitching. Lester fell off a cliff from his previous years' production. Buchholz had a rather odd season where he was horrendous the first month or so, then terrific for most of the summer, but turned mediocre in the fall. Doubront showed flashes of brilliance with his strikeout stuff, but couldn't pitch economically enough to go deep into games. Morales held his own as a starter, but the sample size is too small to project how he would do as a starter over an entire season. Cook, Dice-K, and the various and sundry other fill-in starters were dreadful, for the most part. Lackey missed the year with Tommy John surgery.
With Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, and Lackey each carrying big question marks going into the 2013 season, the rotation looks very unstable. This is where former Red Sox prospect Anibal Sanchez comes in. He may not have the upside of a Greinke or a Haren, but Greinke's history with anxiety disorders makes him a huge risk in the high-pressure, media-frenzied market of Boston baseball (think Carl Crawford) and Haren's bad back scares me (think Josh Beckett). If the Red Sox are going anywhere next year, Lester and Buchholz will have to bounce back. Sanchez slots in as a nice #3, with post-TJ Lackey and a sophomore Doubront bringing up the rear. Lackey could surprise the Sox and pitch like a #2 or #3, or he could be as bad as post-TJ Dice-K.
Starting pitching is where the focus should be for the Red Sox this offseason, but they cannot afford to neglect the bullpen. Most of the pieces for the 2013 are already in place, but the roles might need to be tweaked a bit. Andrew Bailey struggled in his limited opportunities at closer late in the season. Still, he deserves another shot. If he can start the season healthy (and that's a big if, given his history) he has the potential to be at least an adequate closer. If not, Junichi Tazawa, by virtue of his 2012 dominance, deserves a chance. At the very least, Tazawa should be considered a candidate for setup. Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Clayton Mortensen, Franklin Morales and Mark Melancon are in the mix for middle relief, as well as Daniel Bard. Oh, poor mismanaged Daniel Bard! Can Farrell and Pitching Coach To Be Named Later fix him? Is he a candidate for a "change of scenery" trade? Padilla and Atchison are free agents getting on in baseball years. Aceves, with his antics last year, coupled with mediocre to awful pitching has quite frankly worn out his welcome.
With the pitching being taken care of, let's move to first base. This one will not be easy to fill. Whether or not Gonzalez was a good fit in Boston, it will be very hard to replace his production at first, both with the bat and glove. Unlike at the other positions with holes that need to be filled, first base doesn't have an option waiting in AA or AAA. Lars Anderson turned out to be overmatched at first and was traded to Cleveland. The free agent options at first include Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche (if his option isn't picked up by the Nationals), Carlos Lee, and old friend Kevin Youkilis. LaRoche had an excellent season with the Nats last year and he's my top pick of this bunch. Many fans would love to see Youk back in a Red Sox uniform, but, sadly, I think his best days are behind him. There's a small chance he could bounce back if he switched back to the less physically demanding first base and he would be an upgrade over the AAAA Mauro Gomez, but I'd like to see a higher than .230 average at an offense-heavy position. A trade target is the Mets' Ike Davis and as long as he doesn't cost too dearly in prospects (Barnes and Bradley, in particular, are nearly untouchable in my opinion), he might be worth a shot. From a marketing standpoint, if he does well in Boston, "I Like Ike" T-shirts would fly off the shelves.
Second base being occupied by Pedey, the next hole to fill is at shortstop. JD Drew's kid brother Stephen is a possibility, but just like big bro, he's been dealing with some injuries lately. Then there's Jose Iglesias. His glove could be a pitcher's best friend. His bat, however, could be the opposing pitcher's best friend (credit to my dad on that one!). If the lineup is stacked with elite and above-average bats who can take some of the pressure off the kid to produce, that's one thing. If there are too many other lightweights in the lineup, as there were post-HTEP in September, then the Sox cannot afford to carry a nearly nonexistent bat in Iglesias, no matter how good his glove. In that case, it might be best to take a gamble on Stephen Drew.
With Will Middlebrooks covering third base, let's move to catcher. Is Salty the answer behind the plate? What about Lavarnway? Can either play at least average defense? Salty has some pop in his bat, but he's an all-or-nothing hitter who whiffs like there's no tomorrow. Lavarnway looked dreadful at the plate in September, but that might have been partly due to the fact that there weren't a whole lot of good bats around him to take the pressure off (as with Iglesias). Lavarnway has a better chance of being a decent hitter than Iglesias does, but his defense, like Salty's, is suspect at the major-league level. If it were my decision, I would keep Lavarnway, trade Salty, and find a defensively strong catcher (Jose Molina, anyone?) to be Lavarnway's backup.
Now, onto the outfield. There is a temptation to trade Ellsbury, who is likely to end up elsewhere when he becomes a free agent. Ells is hard to predict, given his crazy-good season in 2011, bookended by two injury-marred seasons in 2010 and 2012. If he doesn't run into anyone or have anyone sit on him, he could be an MVP contender, or something like that. He's a high-risk trade for that very reason. 2010 and 2012 could severely limit what the Red Sox could get for him in a trade, as well as his choice of agent, who will make sure he enters the free-agent market when his contract expires. If the Red Sox were to hold on to Ells and give him a qualifying offer upon his free-agency, they will receive compensation draft picks. My verdict: Unless they get blown away by an offer, keep Ells for 2013 and take the picks if he walks. After all, Bradley may be ready to take his place in 2014.
For right field, I would sign Cody Ross to a 2 or 3 year deal. Ross is not an elite player, but he is more than adequate with the bat and passable in the field. The latter years of the deal could see Ross at DH.
Left field, the other gaping hole created by the HTEP, like first base, doesn't have any easy answers. Nava was impressive for stretches last year, but his ceiling is AAAA and is more suitable for a bench role as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Kalish is another candidate, but he lost most of 2011 due to injury and needs more time in AAA before he can be counted on as a starting outfielder. Putting him on the bench would only hinder his development. Matt Sullivan, one of the bloggers at Over The Monster, had an interesting suggestion that doesn't seem as bad as it might on first glance: Jason Bay. Bay has been a disaster for the Mets and Sullivan suggested that the Red Sox offer to take Bay off their hands in a trade that also includes first baseman Ike Davis. Bay, 34, is a risk, with his concussion history, but part of his problem in Queens is with the righty-killing Citi Field. Fenway Park was a place where Bay thrived and the Green Monster is a righty power-hitter's best friend. As a stopgap to Brentz or Bogaerts, he makes more sense than one might think.
Last but not least: DH. Big Papi is playing hardball again and wanting 2 years at some pretty high coin, despite missing most of the second half due to a very troubling achilles injury. Due to that injury and the lingering effects it could have on his baserunning and hitting, its very risky to offer him a 2-year deal. To be honest, his kvetching about his contract during the season last year rubbed me the wrong way and proved as yet another distraction (one of few non-Bobby V-related distractions). 1 year at $16 million with a team option for a second year is about as far as I would go. If he wants more than that, call his bluff. Let him test the open market and see what an aging, one-dimensional player with an achilles injury can get. If he walks, having been made a qualifying offer, the Sox pick up draft picks and use the DH to rest position players.
Well, that was an exercise in verbosity! Here's what the team would look like in 2013 if I were in charge:
Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Doubront, John Lackey
Bullpen: Andrew Bailey (closer), Junichi Tazawa (setup), Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales (long relief, swing man), Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill (alternates include Daniel Bard & Alex Wilson)
C: Ryan Lavarnway
1B: Ike Davis (or Adam LaRoche)
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Jose Iglesias (or Stephen Drew)
3B: Will Middlebrooks
LF: Jason Bay (or Ryan Kalish)
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Cody Ross
DH: David Ortiz (or rotating DH)
Bench: Jose Molina, Daniel Nava, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Carlos Linares (alternates include Mauro Gomez and Pedro Ciriaco)
There you have it. I'm not expecting a World Series contender out of the 2013 team or even a playoff berth, but a respectable (over .500) record is well within reach if the team can shake the injury curse of 2010-2012. They will, in all likelihood be stronger contenders in 2014 and/or 2015 if the high-end prospects pan out. It's not too hard, however, to improve on 2012 and I expect them to do just that, if only because Bobby V is no longer in charge.
All that said, it's time to look at the roster and see what can be done to make the team at least somewhat competitive next year without sacrificing the future. The Humongous Trade of Epic Proportions (HTEP for short) that went down on August 25, where the desperate-for-a-playoff-berth Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out of bad contract purgatory by taking on the hefty money allotted to Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, gave the team oodles of financial breathing room with which to rebuild the team. In order to avoid repeating the mistakes that led to such a historic deal, the Red Sox need to spend their newfound windfall wisely. Ben Cherington has his work cut out for him this offseason; he must decide what approach the Red Sox will take to rebuilding and how to balance the need to reload the team with quality homegrown talent and the need to regain lost trust and credibility with the fanbase by fielding a team that has a fighting chance at a playoff berth.
As to the homegrown talent, there's a lot of it just a year or two away from being major-league ready. The 4 B's (Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, and Brentz) headline the group of promising prospects and all four could potentially fill some holes the Sox have going into this offseason. Xander Bogaerts, provided he doesn't physically "outgrow" the position, could become the long-term shortstop the team has been missing since the Nomar trade in 2004. Jackie Bradley, Jr is a center fielder who could make Ellsbury expendable when he hits free agency a year from now. Matt Barnes could be a top of the rotation starter the Red Sox badly need to stabilize their rotation. Bryce Brentz is an outfielder who can fill the left-field slot vacated by Crawford. Unfortunately, Opening Day 2013 is a little too far ahead of schedule for these young guys to reach The Show. Late season 2013 or sometime in 2014 is a better bet. The holes need to be filled before then and this is where Cherington needs to make some decisions.
Let's start with the bane of the Red Sox' existence from September 2011 to the first days of October 2012: Starting pitching. Lester fell off a cliff from his previous years' production. Buchholz had a rather odd season where he was horrendous the first month or so, then terrific for most of the summer, but turned mediocre in the fall. Doubront showed flashes of brilliance with his strikeout stuff, but couldn't pitch economically enough to go deep into games. Morales held his own as a starter, but the sample size is too small to project how he would do as a starter over an entire season. Cook, Dice-K, and the various and sundry other fill-in starters were dreadful, for the most part. Lackey missed the year with Tommy John surgery.
With Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, and Lackey each carrying big question marks going into the 2013 season, the rotation looks very unstable. This is where former Red Sox prospect Anibal Sanchez comes in. He may not have the upside of a Greinke or a Haren, but Greinke's history with anxiety disorders makes him a huge risk in the high-pressure, media-frenzied market of Boston baseball (think Carl Crawford) and Haren's bad back scares me (think Josh Beckett). If the Red Sox are going anywhere next year, Lester and Buchholz will have to bounce back. Sanchez slots in as a nice #3, with post-TJ Lackey and a sophomore Doubront bringing up the rear. Lackey could surprise the Sox and pitch like a #2 or #3, or he could be as bad as post-TJ Dice-K.
Starting pitching is where the focus should be for the Red Sox this offseason, but they cannot afford to neglect the bullpen. Most of the pieces for the 2013 are already in place, but the roles might need to be tweaked a bit. Andrew Bailey struggled in his limited opportunities at closer late in the season. Still, he deserves another shot. If he can start the season healthy (and that's a big if, given his history) he has the potential to be at least an adequate closer. If not, Junichi Tazawa, by virtue of his 2012 dominance, deserves a chance. At the very least, Tazawa should be considered a candidate for setup. Andrew Miller, Rich Hill, Clayton Mortensen, Franklin Morales and Mark Melancon are in the mix for middle relief, as well as Daniel Bard. Oh, poor mismanaged Daniel Bard! Can Farrell and Pitching Coach To Be Named Later fix him? Is he a candidate for a "change of scenery" trade? Padilla and Atchison are free agents getting on in baseball years. Aceves, with his antics last year, coupled with mediocre to awful pitching has quite frankly worn out his welcome.
With the pitching being taken care of, let's move to first base. This one will not be easy to fill. Whether or not Gonzalez was a good fit in Boston, it will be very hard to replace his production at first, both with the bat and glove. Unlike at the other positions with holes that need to be filled, first base doesn't have an option waiting in AA or AAA. Lars Anderson turned out to be overmatched at first and was traded to Cleveland. The free agent options at first include Nick Swisher, Mike Napoli, Adam LaRoche (if his option isn't picked up by the Nationals), Carlos Lee, and old friend Kevin Youkilis. LaRoche had an excellent season with the Nats last year and he's my top pick of this bunch. Many fans would love to see Youk back in a Red Sox uniform, but, sadly, I think his best days are behind him. There's a small chance he could bounce back if he switched back to the less physically demanding first base and he would be an upgrade over the AAAA Mauro Gomez, but I'd like to see a higher than .230 average at an offense-heavy position. A trade target is the Mets' Ike Davis and as long as he doesn't cost too dearly in prospects (Barnes and Bradley, in particular, are nearly untouchable in my opinion), he might be worth a shot. From a marketing standpoint, if he does well in Boston, "I Like Ike" T-shirts would fly off the shelves.
Second base being occupied by Pedey, the next hole to fill is at shortstop. JD Drew's kid brother Stephen is a possibility, but just like big bro, he's been dealing with some injuries lately. Then there's Jose Iglesias. His glove could be a pitcher's best friend. His bat, however, could be the opposing pitcher's best friend (credit to my dad on that one!). If the lineup is stacked with elite and above-average bats who can take some of the pressure off the kid to produce, that's one thing. If there are too many other lightweights in the lineup, as there were post-HTEP in September, then the Sox cannot afford to carry a nearly nonexistent bat in Iglesias, no matter how good his glove. In that case, it might be best to take a gamble on Stephen Drew.
With Will Middlebrooks covering third base, let's move to catcher. Is Salty the answer behind the plate? What about Lavarnway? Can either play at least average defense? Salty has some pop in his bat, but he's an all-or-nothing hitter who whiffs like there's no tomorrow. Lavarnway looked dreadful at the plate in September, but that might have been partly due to the fact that there weren't a whole lot of good bats around him to take the pressure off (as with Iglesias). Lavarnway has a better chance of being a decent hitter than Iglesias does, but his defense, like Salty's, is suspect at the major-league level. If it were my decision, I would keep Lavarnway, trade Salty, and find a defensively strong catcher (Jose Molina, anyone?) to be Lavarnway's backup.
Now, onto the outfield. There is a temptation to trade Ellsbury, who is likely to end up elsewhere when he becomes a free agent. Ells is hard to predict, given his crazy-good season in 2011, bookended by two injury-marred seasons in 2010 and 2012. If he doesn't run into anyone or have anyone sit on him, he could be an MVP contender, or something like that. He's a high-risk trade for that very reason. 2010 and 2012 could severely limit what the Red Sox could get for him in a trade, as well as his choice of agent, who will make sure he enters the free-agent market when his contract expires. If the Red Sox were to hold on to Ells and give him a qualifying offer upon his free-agency, they will receive compensation draft picks. My verdict: Unless they get blown away by an offer, keep Ells for 2013 and take the picks if he walks. After all, Bradley may be ready to take his place in 2014.
For right field, I would sign Cody Ross to a 2 or 3 year deal. Ross is not an elite player, but he is more than adequate with the bat and passable in the field. The latter years of the deal could see Ross at DH.
Left field, the other gaping hole created by the HTEP, like first base, doesn't have any easy answers. Nava was impressive for stretches last year, but his ceiling is AAAA and is more suitable for a bench role as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Kalish is another candidate, but he lost most of 2011 due to injury and needs more time in AAA before he can be counted on as a starting outfielder. Putting him on the bench would only hinder his development. Matt Sullivan, one of the bloggers at Over The Monster, had an interesting suggestion that doesn't seem as bad as it might on first glance: Jason Bay. Bay has been a disaster for the Mets and Sullivan suggested that the Red Sox offer to take Bay off their hands in a trade that also includes first baseman Ike Davis. Bay, 34, is a risk, with his concussion history, but part of his problem in Queens is with the righty-killing Citi Field. Fenway Park was a place where Bay thrived and the Green Monster is a righty power-hitter's best friend. As a stopgap to Brentz or Bogaerts, he makes more sense than one might think.
Last but not least: DH. Big Papi is playing hardball again and wanting 2 years at some pretty high coin, despite missing most of the second half due to a very troubling achilles injury. Due to that injury and the lingering effects it could have on his baserunning and hitting, its very risky to offer him a 2-year deal. To be honest, his kvetching about his contract during the season last year rubbed me the wrong way and proved as yet another distraction (one of few non-Bobby V-related distractions). 1 year at $16 million with a team option for a second year is about as far as I would go. If he wants more than that, call his bluff. Let him test the open market and see what an aging, one-dimensional player with an achilles injury can get. If he walks, having been made a qualifying offer, the Sox pick up draft picks and use the DH to rest position players.
Well, that was an exercise in verbosity! Here's what the team would look like in 2013 if I were in charge:
Rotation: Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Doubront, John Lackey
Bullpen: Andrew Bailey (closer), Junichi Tazawa (setup), Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales (long relief, swing man), Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill (alternates include Daniel Bard & Alex Wilson)
C: Ryan Lavarnway
1B: Ike Davis (or Adam LaRoche)
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Jose Iglesias (or Stephen Drew)
3B: Will Middlebrooks
LF: Jason Bay (or Ryan Kalish)
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Cody Ross
DH: David Ortiz (or rotating DH)
Bench: Jose Molina, Daniel Nava, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Carlos Linares (alternates include Mauro Gomez and Pedro Ciriaco)
There you have it. I'm not expecting a World Series contender out of the 2013 team or even a playoff berth, but a respectable (over .500) record is well within reach if the team can shake the injury curse of 2010-2012. They will, in all likelihood be stronger contenders in 2014 and/or 2015 if the high-end prospects pan out. It's not too hard, however, to improve on 2012 and I expect them to do just that, if only because Bobby V is no longer in charge.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Farewell to a blog...
I'm shutting down the blog indefinitely, as I can't stomach the watered-down version of baseball the Red Sox have been playing since last September and if I find the games unwatchable, there's really nothing to blog about. There's nothing positive to say--too much negativity gets nauseating to read and to write. Maybe it makes me a fairweather Red Sox fan, but I'm also a baseball fan and I like to see the game played right. If I have to look to another team to see that, then so be it.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
The Cody and Adrian Show
In the absence of The Large Father, Cody Ross and Adrian Gonzalez combined to set off fireworks reminiscent of a certain national holiday that happened two weeks prior. Ross knocked two three-run bombs and a double. Gonzo had an RBI single in the first inning, a solo dinger following Ross's second foray above the monster, and later a 2-run single. The two combined to drive in all 10 of the Red Sox runs last night, Ross with 6 RBI and Gonzo with 4. Playing a heavy supporting role in the hit parade were two guys who have missed half the season but are looking pretty impressive batting first and second: Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. The sample size is minuscule, but perhaps these are the positions Ells and Crawford should have been in all along. They set the table for Ross and, combined with Ciriaco at the bottom of the order, create havoc on the base paths. Games like last night's, when the hitting and pitching come together have been all too rare this season. Felix Doubront, given a boatload of run support from the aforementioned hitters, overcame a shaky first inning to go 6 and give up only 1 run. Was this game a rare treat or the start of a much-improved second half?
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Red Sox Midseason Report Card
This is the kind of report card that would get you on TV restriction and some sessions with a tutor. The Red Sox midseason grades aren't pretty, that's for sure. Entering the All-Star break, the Beantown Boys are 43-43. Sure, there are 76 games left to play, but without better health and a dramatic turnaround by glaringly underperforming supposed "stars", the second half might not look too much different from the first.
Let's start with the pitchers. When the lowest ERA in the rotation is 4.41 (Doubront), it's no wonder the team's sitting at .500.
Jon Lester: D Lester is supposed to be the ace of this rotation, but his performance to date has been underwhelming to say the least. A disappointing and below-league-average 4.49 ERA and a 5-6 record from a guy who was not long ago on the cusp of becoming an elite pitcher is one of the biggest mysteries of the season. Lester is only 28 and should be in his prime. Why this big step back and why has he become Lackey-esque in his demeanor on the mound, glaring at umpires when he doesn't get a strike call? He has the stuff to be great, but he has to get his head back in the game if the team is to make any noise in the second half.
Josh Beckett: C Not dominant by any stretch, Beckett has been slightly better than Lester. Given his age (32), some of his issues might be attributed to some age-related decline. His velocity is down from when he was at his best and he has to learn how to become a finesse pitcher as opposed to a power pitcher. He figured prominently in the "chicken and beer" scandal following the September implosion and that has landed him in hot water with many fans as well as the TMZ-esque Boston sports media. He also needs to step up his game in the second half.
Clay Buchholz: C+ He was absolutely dreadful in April and early May, but he was beginning to put it together before landing on the DL (and in the ICU!) with esophagitis. He's due to return to the rotation when they pick up the season in Tampa Bay this weekend. Seeing how ill he was, it seems he would need more time to get his strength back. Therefore, my expectations for him in his first few starts back are tempered.
Felix Doubront: B Not a whole lot was expected out of the young Doubront coming into this season. He made the rotation due to a very strong showing in Spring Training and he's been one of the bright spots in the rotation in the first half. He has struggled lately as he's had to adjust to the league adjusting to him. He's also close to exceeding, if he hasn't already, his innings count from last season in Pawtucket. However, he rebounded a bit in his start on Saturday night against the Yankees, despite allowing 3 runs in the first inning.
Franklin Morales: B Morales converted to a starter in June to fill a hole in the rotation when Beckett went on the DL for shoulder inflammation and pitched very well in his first three starts before getting roughed up against the Yankees last Saturday. His work in the bullpen was solid, especially on the road. Fenway has given him a bit of trouble, however. He is scheduled to remain in the rotation for the time being, but he could return to the bullpen should the need arise or should his innings start to pile up.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: incomplete, but what we've seen so far is not encouraging.
Aaron Cook: incomplete, but he could play a more prominent role in the second half. His 81-pitch 2-hit shutout of the Mariners on June 29 was impressive.
Daniel Bard: D- There's no sugarcoating how disastrous the Bard-as-starter experiment was. After an outing where the Blue Jays fans were screaming to get him out of the game before one of his errant pitches seriously hurt one of their players, Bard was sent down to Pawtucket to work out whatever it was that made him completely unable to find the plate. He has continued to struggle in AAA and he seems to have lost all of his confidence. It's really sad to see, as he has so much talent and when he was a setup man, he could reach triple digits on a regular basis. I hope he can find that velocity and control once again and be able to help the Red Sox in the same manner he has in the past--in the bullpen.
Alfredo Aceves: B- He has a high ERA (4.33) for a closer, but the number is skewed somewhat by his abysmal opening series against the Tigers and the bullpen meltdown against the Yankees on April 21. He is 19 for 23 in save opportunities. Think 2010 Papelbon.
Matt Albers: B+ He has a propensity for giving up the long ball every now and then, but overall his performance has been very good, with a 2.38 first half ERA.
Scott Atchison: A Uncle Atch has quietly put together a solid first half, with a minuscule 1.79 ERA and has earned one of the few A's on this midseason report card.
Mark Melancon: C+ Melancon struggled so badly in his first few outings in the Red Sox bullpen that he was promptly sent down to Pawtucket. He dominated in AAA and earned his way back to Boston, where he looks much more like the Mark Melancon that the Sox traded Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland for.
Andrew Miller: B+ Miller struggled mightily in the rotation last season, but he seems to have found his niche in the bullpen, sporting a 2.75 first half ERA.
Vicente Padilla: B+ He's one scary dude and a certain Yankees first baseman thinks the guy's certifiable but he has been an asset to the Red Sox bullpen in the first half as the setup man for Alfredo Aceves.
Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill, Junichi Tazawa: Incomplete
The Position Players:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Catcher: B Salty's power has been fun to see, with 17 jacks so far, exceeding his total of 16 for all of last season. However, he strikes out a whole lot and the defense leaves something to be desired. He has improved his communication with the pitchers, however.
Kelly Shoppach, Catcher: B Shop's actually hitting for a decent average, given his at-bats are limited by his role as a backup.
Adrian Gonzalez, First Baseman: C+ His average is starting to come back up, but the lack of power is still baffling. When the Sox made the deal, then signed him to the hefty extension, it was on the premise that they were getting a heart-of-the-order power hitter. After all, the guy hit 40 long balls playing half his games in the ginormous Petco Park. For the first half of 2011, he was that guy, but ever since the Home Run Derby last year, coming off of shoulder surgery in the previous offseason, the home runs have been few and far between. The Sox aren't paying all this money (and didn't send those highly-valued prospects to San Diego) for a singles and doubles hitter. His defense at first base remains excellent and now that the infield logjam has been solved, he no longer has to roam the outfield. To his credit, he changed positions without complaint. However, that switch might have hurt his performance at the plate.
Dustin Pedroia, Second Baseman: C+ It's admirable that Pedey wanted to gut it out and play through pain after his thumb injury in late May. At the time of the injury, I thought for sure he would go on the DL and thought it would be best for him to rest it right then, but Pedey and the Red Sox decided he would play through it. However, in doing so he may have done himself and the team more harm than good. His game, especially at the plate, suffered dramatically. It's likely the adjustments he made to compensate for his hurt thumb caused a second injury on that same thumb that could have him out at least a month. Had he gone on the DL after the first injury, he might be healthy and productive instead of in a thumb cast.
Mike Aviles, Shortstop: B- Aviles won the starting shortstop gig over the defensive whiz in AAA who goes by the name of Jose Iglesias and he started out swinging a hot bat and teaming up with Pedey to make turning double plays look as easy as 6-4-3. His bat has cooled off since then and his low OBP knocked him out of the leadoff spot in favor of the more patient Daniel Nava.
Will Middlebrooks, Third Baseman: B+ He came up while Youk was on the DL and swung such a blazing bat that Youk is now playing for those other Sox. The defense and plate discipline could use a little work, but he's a rookie and that will come with more experience. He already has 10 HR and 37 RBI and his return to health should be a boost to the offense.
Daniel Nava, Left Fielder: A- He has come down to earth lately, but in May and June, Nava was golden. He was an on-base machine and a much-improved outfield glove. He was called up in May when the DL claimed Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney and proved to be a more than adequate replacement. Once the injured starting outfielders start coming back, though, things might get interesting for the likes of him, Sweeney, and Podsednik.
Cody Ross, Outfielder: A- He can put the ball over the Green Monster with the best of 'em and his power has been very welcome on the Red Sox this season.
Ryan Sweeney, Outfielder: B- Although he started out hot, hitting doubles like there was no tomorrow, injuries have been a problem for the guy the A's threw in with Bailey in the deal that sent Josh Reddick to Oakland. He's already been on the DL twice in the first half and his bat has cooled down significantly. His lack of power might make him expendable when Ellsbury and/or Crawford return.
Scott Podsednik, Che-Hsuan Lin, Jason Repko, Ryan Kalish: Incomplete
David Ortiz, Designated Hitter: A Big Papi has lived up to his name so far this season and has carried this offense. He has 22 HR and has 57 RBI and a .312 average. I could do without the off-the-field dramatics about his contract status, but on the field, he's earned the all-too-rare on this first-half report card A.
Nick Punto, Utility Infielder: C- Punto is a liability at the plate when he doesn't get consistent at-bats. When he gets several days worth of at-bats at a time, however, he shows signs of life.
Brent Lillibridge, Pedro Ciriaco: Incomplete
Kevin Youkilis (First/Third Baseman, now plays for Chicago White Sox): C Youk never really seemed like himself this year, whether it be due to injuries and age catching up to him or alleged clashes with Bobby V. A change of scenery has him looking rejuvenated, however. He is thriving on the South Side.
Darnell McDonald, Outfielder, now plays for the New York Yankees: C- D-Mac fell victim the DFA when his low batting average made him expendable in the ever-turning outfield carousel. The Yanks picked him up and he's now in pinstripes.
Bobby Valentine, Manager: C+ This mark seems fair given the Red Sox' 43-43 record going into the ASB. He has had a lot of crap to deal with, from front-office meddling to the incessant stream of injuries, to baggage from last year's collapse. I honestly don't think Tito could have done any better given the circumstances. However, it's hard to grade him any higher with the disappointing performance of the team so far. The mis-step of calling Youk out publicly in the early weeks of the season may have undermined his relationship with the team. Most of the poor performance is on the players themselves, but I was hoping Bobby V might have gotten a little more out of these guys, especially the pitchers, than he has so far.
The Red Sox as a team: C- Their stumbling and fumbling into the ASB has me wanting to grade them even lower, but they've had moments, particularly in May and June, when they've looked like legit contenders. They've had an insane amount of injuries for the third year in a row and their top 3 pitchers have been outperformed by the likes of Felix Doubront, Aaron Cook, and Franklin Morales. Their high-priced first baseman has spent the equivalent of a whole season (the second half of last season plus the first half of this one) searching for his power and their high-priced outfielder has yet to appear in a game and may need Tommy John surgery. They've looked like little leaguers against the Yankees and Rangers and are 1-5 against the Oakland A's of all teams! In order for them to have a prayer for even a wild card spot, the top of the rotation will need to get their act together, Ellsbury will have to return to 2011 form, Ortiz will have to keep up his first-half performance, Gonzalez will need to figure out how to hit home runs again, Salty and Aviles will have to improve their OBP, and the bullpen will have to continue to provide the quality innings it provided in the first half (April excluded). Unless the Yankees do what the Red Sox did last September (and, as much as Red Sox Nation would love for that to happen, don't count on it), the division is out of reach. They are only 2.5 games out of the wild card, but they'll have to fight off the Angels, Orioles, Indians, Rays, and possibly a few more teams to get there.
Let's start with the pitchers. When the lowest ERA in the rotation is 4.41 (Doubront), it's no wonder the team's sitting at .500.
Jon Lester: D Lester is supposed to be the ace of this rotation, but his performance to date has been underwhelming to say the least. A disappointing and below-league-average 4.49 ERA and a 5-6 record from a guy who was not long ago on the cusp of becoming an elite pitcher is one of the biggest mysteries of the season. Lester is only 28 and should be in his prime. Why this big step back and why has he become Lackey-esque in his demeanor on the mound, glaring at umpires when he doesn't get a strike call? He has the stuff to be great, but he has to get his head back in the game if the team is to make any noise in the second half.
Josh Beckett: C Not dominant by any stretch, Beckett has been slightly better than Lester. Given his age (32), some of his issues might be attributed to some age-related decline. His velocity is down from when he was at his best and he has to learn how to become a finesse pitcher as opposed to a power pitcher. He figured prominently in the "chicken and beer" scandal following the September implosion and that has landed him in hot water with many fans as well as the TMZ-esque Boston sports media. He also needs to step up his game in the second half.
Clay Buchholz: C+ He was absolutely dreadful in April and early May, but he was beginning to put it together before landing on the DL (and in the ICU!) with esophagitis. He's due to return to the rotation when they pick up the season in Tampa Bay this weekend. Seeing how ill he was, it seems he would need more time to get his strength back. Therefore, my expectations for him in his first few starts back are tempered.
Felix Doubront: B Not a whole lot was expected out of the young Doubront coming into this season. He made the rotation due to a very strong showing in Spring Training and he's been one of the bright spots in the rotation in the first half. He has struggled lately as he's had to adjust to the league adjusting to him. He's also close to exceeding, if he hasn't already, his innings count from last season in Pawtucket. However, he rebounded a bit in his start on Saturday night against the Yankees, despite allowing 3 runs in the first inning.
Franklin Morales: B Morales converted to a starter in June to fill a hole in the rotation when Beckett went on the DL for shoulder inflammation and pitched very well in his first three starts before getting roughed up against the Yankees last Saturday. His work in the bullpen was solid, especially on the road. Fenway has given him a bit of trouble, however. He is scheduled to remain in the rotation for the time being, but he could return to the bullpen should the need arise or should his innings start to pile up.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: incomplete, but what we've seen so far is not encouraging.
Aaron Cook: incomplete, but he could play a more prominent role in the second half. His 81-pitch 2-hit shutout of the Mariners on June 29 was impressive.
Daniel Bard: D- There's no sugarcoating how disastrous the Bard-as-starter experiment was. After an outing where the Blue Jays fans were screaming to get him out of the game before one of his errant pitches seriously hurt one of their players, Bard was sent down to Pawtucket to work out whatever it was that made him completely unable to find the plate. He has continued to struggle in AAA and he seems to have lost all of his confidence. It's really sad to see, as he has so much talent and when he was a setup man, he could reach triple digits on a regular basis. I hope he can find that velocity and control once again and be able to help the Red Sox in the same manner he has in the past--in the bullpen.
Alfredo Aceves: B- He has a high ERA (4.33) for a closer, but the number is skewed somewhat by his abysmal opening series against the Tigers and the bullpen meltdown against the Yankees on April 21. He is 19 for 23 in save opportunities. Think 2010 Papelbon.
Matt Albers: B+ He has a propensity for giving up the long ball every now and then, but overall his performance has been very good, with a 2.38 first half ERA.
Scott Atchison: A Uncle Atch has quietly put together a solid first half, with a minuscule 1.79 ERA and has earned one of the few A's on this midseason report card.
Mark Melancon: C+ Melancon struggled so badly in his first few outings in the Red Sox bullpen that he was promptly sent down to Pawtucket. He dominated in AAA and earned his way back to Boston, where he looks much more like the Mark Melancon that the Sox traded Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland for.
Andrew Miller: B+ Miller struggled mightily in the rotation last season, but he seems to have found his niche in the bullpen, sporting a 2.75 first half ERA.
Vicente Padilla: B+ He's one scary dude and a certain Yankees first baseman thinks the guy's certifiable but he has been an asset to the Red Sox bullpen in the first half as the setup man for Alfredo Aceves.
Clayton Mortensen, Rich Hill, Junichi Tazawa: Incomplete
The Position Players:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Catcher: B Salty's power has been fun to see, with 17 jacks so far, exceeding his total of 16 for all of last season. However, he strikes out a whole lot and the defense leaves something to be desired. He has improved his communication with the pitchers, however.
Kelly Shoppach, Catcher: B Shop's actually hitting for a decent average, given his at-bats are limited by his role as a backup.
Adrian Gonzalez, First Baseman: C+ His average is starting to come back up, but the lack of power is still baffling. When the Sox made the deal, then signed him to the hefty extension, it was on the premise that they were getting a heart-of-the-order power hitter. After all, the guy hit 40 long balls playing half his games in the ginormous Petco Park. For the first half of 2011, he was that guy, but ever since the Home Run Derby last year, coming off of shoulder surgery in the previous offseason, the home runs have been few and far between. The Sox aren't paying all this money (and didn't send those highly-valued prospects to San Diego) for a singles and doubles hitter. His defense at first base remains excellent and now that the infield logjam has been solved, he no longer has to roam the outfield. To his credit, he changed positions without complaint. However, that switch might have hurt his performance at the plate.
Dustin Pedroia, Second Baseman: C+ It's admirable that Pedey wanted to gut it out and play through pain after his thumb injury in late May. At the time of the injury, I thought for sure he would go on the DL and thought it would be best for him to rest it right then, but Pedey and the Red Sox decided he would play through it. However, in doing so he may have done himself and the team more harm than good. His game, especially at the plate, suffered dramatically. It's likely the adjustments he made to compensate for his hurt thumb caused a second injury on that same thumb that could have him out at least a month. Had he gone on the DL after the first injury, he might be healthy and productive instead of in a thumb cast.
Mike Aviles, Shortstop: B- Aviles won the starting shortstop gig over the defensive whiz in AAA who goes by the name of Jose Iglesias and he started out swinging a hot bat and teaming up with Pedey to make turning double plays look as easy as 6-4-3. His bat has cooled off since then and his low OBP knocked him out of the leadoff spot in favor of the more patient Daniel Nava.
Will Middlebrooks, Third Baseman: B+ He came up while Youk was on the DL and swung such a blazing bat that Youk is now playing for those other Sox. The defense and plate discipline could use a little work, but he's a rookie and that will come with more experience. He already has 10 HR and 37 RBI and his return to health should be a boost to the offense.
Daniel Nava, Left Fielder: A- He has come down to earth lately, but in May and June, Nava was golden. He was an on-base machine and a much-improved outfield glove. He was called up in May when the DL claimed Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney and proved to be a more than adequate replacement. Once the injured starting outfielders start coming back, though, things might get interesting for the likes of him, Sweeney, and Podsednik.
Cody Ross, Outfielder: A- He can put the ball over the Green Monster with the best of 'em and his power has been very welcome on the Red Sox this season.
Ryan Sweeney, Outfielder: B- Although he started out hot, hitting doubles like there was no tomorrow, injuries have been a problem for the guy the A's threw in with Bailey in the deal that sent Josh Reddick to Oakland. He's already been on the DL twice in the first half and his bat has cooled down significantly. His lack of power might make him expendable when Ellsbury and/or Crawford return.
Scott Podsednik, Che-Hsuan Lin, Jason Repko, Ryan Kalish: Incomplete
David Ortiz, Designated Hitter: A Big Papi has lived up to his name so far this season and has carried this offense. He has 22 HR and has 57 RBI and a .312 average. I could do without the off-the-field dramatics about his contract status, but on the field, he's earned the all-too-rare on this first-half report card A.
Nick Punto, Utility Infielder: C- Punto is a liability at the plate when he doesn't get consistent at-bats. When he gets several days worth of at-bats at a time, however, he shows signs of life.
Brent Lillibridge, Pedro Ciriaco: Incomplete
Kevin Youkilis (First/Third Baseman, now plays for Chicago White Sox): C Youk never really seemed like himself this year, whether it be due to injuries and age catching up to him or alleged clashes with Bobby V. A change of scenery has him looking rejuvenated, however. He is thriving on the South Side.
Darnell McDonald, Outfielder, now plays for the New York Yankees: C- D-Mac fell victim the DFA when his low batting average made him expendable in the ever-turning outfield carousel. The Yanks picked him up and he's now in pinstripes.
Bobby Valentine, Manager: C+ This mark seems fair given the Red Sox' 43-43 record going into the ASB. He has had a lot of crap to deal with, from front-office meddling to the incessant stream of injuries, to baggage from last year's collapse. I honestly don't think Tito could have done any better given the circumstances. However, it's hard to grade him any higher with the disappointing performance of the team so far. The mis-step of calling Youk out publicly in the early weeks of the season may have undermined his relationship with the team. Most of the poor performance is on the players themselves, but I was hoping Bobby V might have gotten a little more out of these guys, especially the pitchers, than he has so far.
The Red Sox as a team: C- Their stumbling and fumbling into the ASB has me wanting to grade them even lower, but they've had moments, particularly in May and June, when they've looked like legit contenders. They've had an insane amount of injuries for the third year in a row and their top 3 pitchers have been outperformed by the likes of Felix Doubront, Aaron Cook, and Franklin Morales. Their high-priced first baseman has spent the equivalent of a whole season (the second half of last season plus the first half of this one) searching for his power and their high-priced outfielder has yet to appear in a game and may need Tommy John surgery. They've looked like little leaguers against the Yankees and Rangers and are 1-5 against the Oakland A's of all teams! In order for them to have a prayer for even a wild card spot, the top of the rotation will need to get their act together, Ellsbury will have to return to 2011 form, Ortiz will have to keep up his first-half performance, Gonzalez will need to figure out how to hit home runs again, Salty and Aviles will have to improve their OBP, and the bullpen will have to continue to provide the quality innings it provided in the first half (April excluded). Unless the Yankees do what the Red Sox did last September (and, as much as Red Sox Nation would love for that to happen, don't count on it), the division is out of reach. They are only 2.5 games out of the wild card, but they'll have to fight off the Angels, Orioles, Indians, Rays, and possibly a few more teams to get there.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
On The Outside
Let's face the facts: The 2012 Boston Red Sox are a mediocre, streaky team. They don't adapt to adversity very well, as evidenced on the disastrous West Coast road trip they just finished, where they looked jet-lagged the whole way. Their bats, evidently, didn't make the trip as they hit an abysmal .200 in the Pacific time zone. Not the kind of stuff you want to stay up late for now, is it? This trip came after they started to come into their own at home, going 7-2 against Miami, Atlanta, and Toronto.
Where has the offense gone? Nava, who looked like a legitimate starting major leaguer from May to mid-June has come crashing down to earth and once again looks like the quad-A guy who was all but forgotten last year through this year's spring training. Pitchers are adjusting to his new plate approach and he's getting rung up a lot more on called third strikes. Pedey's thumb is bothering him once again. Until today, Papi had long ball #400 in his head. Gonzo may have the quietest hitting streak in Red Sox history. Middlebrooks got antsy at the plate in RISP situations, then pulled a hammy trying to steal a base, forcing the likes of sub-Mendoza Punto into the lineup. Salty has been moved in and out of the cleanup spot, but strikes out too much to be a good fit there, despite his impressive power numbers (16 HR so far this year, matching his total for all of last season). Aviles has also cooled down big-time at the plate. Kalish is rusty from his year lost to injury and belongs in AAA.
The pitching, aside from Dice-K's Monday night meltdown, did a decent job on the trip--that is when they weren't facing ax-grinding former Sox outfielders in Oakland (Coco "Benched in '07 ALCS" Crisp, Brandon "Shipped to Pittsburgh in the Manny-Bay deal" Moss, and Josh "Trade Bait for the Closer Who Has Yet To Throw a Pitch This Season" Reddick). Apart from some blown saves by Aceves and some defensive clownery by Salty, Aviles and Kalish, among others, it was mainly the offense that was to blame for the embarrassing 2-5 record.
It doesn't get any easier when they get back to Fenway, with the Yankees in town for 4 games, including a Saturday double-header. Things could get really ugly in Beantown if they lose 3 of 4 or get swept. Fair or not, Red Sox Nation still has September 2011 fresh in their minds. (It's really not fair to the players and coaches who were not with the team last year and had nothing to do with it, but the core of the team remains the same). After climbing to third place, the Red Sox are now in a tie for 4th with the Blue Jays and could soon be sitting alone in the cellar if the Yanks have their way with them this weekend.
The streakiness of this team will keep them hovering around the .500 mark and will, in all likelihood, keep them out of the playoffs for a third straight year. These aren't the Red Sox of the previous decade. They've gone retro and they're starting to look like your parents' and grandparents' Red Sox. At least my hometown Nationals are having themselves one helluva season so far. When was the last time (if ever) DC had a respectable baseball team?
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