Monday, April 6, 2015

Starting Off With A Bang (Or Five)

    The Red Sox offense made a big statement on Opening Day in Philly, clubbing 5 big flies off of Phillies pitching, 4 off of Red Sox offseason trade target Cole Hamels, to bash their way to an emphatic 8-0 win over the Phillies.  Clay Buchholz set the tone by pitching 7 shutout innings of 3-hit ball and the bats backed him up big-time.   Pedey and Hanley each went yard twice, with Hanley's second dinger being of the grand salami ilk.  Leadoff hitter Mookie Betts hit one out as well, and got on base at total of three times.   Pedey flashed the leather as well as the lumber, making sure anybody and everybody knew that rumors of his decline were greatly exaggerated.

     Today's opening game was the kind of best-case scenario game that characterized the 2013 Red Sox.  It's exciting and it can set the tone for great things in 2015, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  There are 161 games to go.   However, starting out with a dominating 9-strikeout performance from a guy they are relying on heavily to front the rotation (along with Wednesday's starter Rick Porcello) is an encouraging sign.   The truest test will be how Buchholz, Porcello, and the rest of the team perform against the tougher teams in the league, but it sure is better to win against the teams you are (on paper) supposed to beat than to have them beat you.  

      An energized offense will make this season fun to watch and if the rotation and bullpen can keep the team in the game, the season will be closer to 2013 than to 2012 and 2014.   Coming into 2015 with a true leadoff hitter helps.   This was sorely lacking in 2014, save for some good stretches with Brock Holt in the first half.   Mookie is an advanced hitter for being just 22 and he's a spark plug at the top of the order.  Strengthening the middle with Hanley and Panda in the offseason let Pedey return to his natural spot as the #2 hitter.   When they return to an AL ballpark on Friday, they will have a 3-4-5-6 of Papi, Hanley, Napoli, and Panda.   Victorino, Bogaerts, and Hanigan will make for a rather strong bottom of the order.  

      Tomorrow's an off day (weird Opening Week schedule) and Wednesday, Porcello, who just signed a 4-year extension, toes the rubber against Harang.   Baseball's back!  

Monday, March 30, 2015

Player to watch for 2015: Mookie Betts

    With all the bitching I have done about the underwhelming Red Sox starting rotation, the 2015 squad's offense should be exciting and fun to watch.  Besides the high-profile additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo "Panda" Sandoval, on of the key reasons for watching while the Sox are up at bat is Mookie Betts.   Mookie, who played 52 games for the moribund 2014 team was one of the few bright spots last summer as he slashed .291/.368/.444 with 5 HR and 18 RBI and adjusted remarkably well to a position switch from 2B to CF.  Mookie is charismatic, high-energy, and fills the leadoff hitter void left by Jacoby Ellsbury.   Only 22, he has advanced plate discipline and can frustrate pitchers at the plate and on the basepaths. 

     At the start of Spring Training, Victorino was named the starting right fielder and it was up to Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo to duke it out for the right to patrol center field.   Rusney injured his oblique before Grapefruit League games even started and Mookie made absolutely certain that center field was his for the taking, hitting a blistering .452 so far, making some webgem catches along the way.  For his part, Castillo has recovered from his injury and made a case of his own, but Mookie has nailed down center field, meaning Castillo has to upset the oft-injured vet Shane "Shanf" Victorino for RF, with LF belonging to Hanley Ramirez. 

    With the addition of two middle-of-the-order bats, Dustin Pedroia can return to his familiar spot in the two-hole while Mookie bats leadoff.  Big Papi will bat third, with Hanley in cleanup and the Panda fifth.  Mike Napoli, rejuvenated after a gruesome-but-necessary sleep apnea surgery, bats sixth, which leaves either Rusney or Shanf in the seven-hole, Xander Bogaerts eight and Ryan Hanigan ninth.   That lineup should do a lot more damage than the flimsy 2014 edition.  The pitching is a dead horse I've already beaten, but the ascension of Mookie Betts, in addition to Xander Bogaerts, should once again make the Red Sox a weapon of pitcher destruction when they're up to bat. 

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Can The Red Sox Hit Their Way Past Rotation Shortcomings?

    The Red Sox offseason so far has been a puzzling one.   On one hand, they loaded up on offense by signing both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.  On the other hand, they waded in the pool of mediocrity when building their pitching rotation.  After failing to top the Chicago Cubs' offer to sign Jon Lester (and perhaps souring negotiations with him by lowballing him last March, then trading him to Oakland at the deadline), they loaded up on mid-rotation arms, leaving a gaping hole at the top. 

    Of the arms they did add, Porcello has the most potential of roughly approximating an ace.  He had his best season yet in 2014, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.231 WHIP.   He's 26 years old, heading into his prime years.   Still, expecting him to lead a rotation at this point in his career is downright unfair.   He's a newcomer to the team and the pressure-cooker market that is New England.   In Detroit, he was a mid-back rotation starter by virtue of being on the same team as Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander.   He has more years of MLB experience than your average 26-year-old, since he broke into the bigs at the tender age of 20 in 2009.   However, he would benefit from being the number 2 guy instead of the guy who is relied upon to stop a losing streak or start the first game of a hypothetical playoff series.  

   The guys behind Porcello, including Justin Masterson, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, and the enigmatic Clay Buchholz don't inspire a wealth of confidence.  Masterson is coming off of a horrific season in which his ERA was in the high fives.   Wade Miley has been up and down and recently recorded an ERA in the fours playing for a National League team.   Joe Kelly is a back of the rotation type, as we saw in the two months after the deadline.   That brings us to the most maddening pitcher the Red Sox have since the departure of Daisuke Matsuzaka.   When Buchholz is good, he is very, very good.  When he is bad, as he was last year, it's painful to watch.   Then there is keeping him off the DL, which is a challenge unto itself.  He has not shown enough year-to-year consistency to be counted on to lead the rotation.

    James Shields is still available, but his asking price is sky-high given his age and his tendency to be a flyball pitcher.  Jordan Zimmerman and Doug Fister would be an upgrade on the current rotation, but the Nationals have no pressing need to trade them, unless they want to clear salary.  Therefore, they have all the leverage and can ask for the moon, the stars, and a couple of planets thrown in for good measure.  Bringing Jon Lester back was the Red Sox' best chance at building a strong rotation for 2015 without sacrificing the team's best prospects.  

   The rest of the AL East is not looking all that spectacular.  The Rays still have a higher-ceiling rotation than the Red Sox, but they lost quite a few offensive players this winter.  The Orioles have lost a few stars of their own and they haven't upgraded their rotation either.  The Blue Jays have had an offseason similar to the Red Sox, loading up on offense while not improving much on the rotation.  The Yankees have Tanaka, if he's healthy, as well as Pineda.  However, the rest of the rotation stacks up pretty evenly with that of the Sox.  

   However "meh" the AL East looks, the Central and West could easily crush any dreams the Red Sox might have of playing deep into October should they slug their way through a bottom-heavy rotation to win the division or sneak into a Wild Card berth.  The 2005-esque rotation could make them a one-and-done candidate, especially in the expanded Wild Card era where one game decides who advances to the division series. 

   Is it really fair to the offense to expect them to pick up the slack from a so-so pitching rotation?   If the Red Sox bats feel like they have to put up 3 or 4 runs every night, they will start pressing, which rarely produces good results.  The Red Sox offense spent pretty much all of 2014 pressing, particularly the multiple rookies expected to carry their weight.   We saw where that got them, even early in the season, when the pitching was usually very good.   If the rotation overperforms, a la 2013, they have a chance to return to October baseball.  However, there is just as much, if not more, potential for disaster with as many question marks as the Red Sox have toeing the rubber.   An ace may only pitch every five games, but he takes some pressure off of the rest of the rotation and gives the offense a bit of a breather.  

   

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Bitching About The Pitching

    It's official.  Jon Lester is a Chicago Cub now.  I wish him all the best and if he can bring a championship to the Cubs, the Windy City could very well be renamed Lestertown.  I don't begrudge his decision.  After all, it's not like he signed with the Yankees.   I still respect him and what he did for the Red Sox while he was here, helping them win two World Series.   That being said, I'm sure going to miss him and I sure as hell wish he were the Red Sox' 2015 Opening Day starter.  

    As of now, it's anyone's guess who takes the hill on Opening Day because this rotation has no leader.   Buchholz may be the longest tenured member, but trying to predict which version of him the Red Sox will get in 2015 is a fool's errand.  Someone with such a high ceiling and such a low floor cannot be expected to lead this rotation.   After losing out on Lester, the Sox went out and collected a glut of #3 starters in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson.  Out of the three, I have the highest hopes for Porcello, but he's a #2 at the very most and more conservatively, a #3 on a team that expects to contend for a championship.

   If the 2013 and 2014 World Series taught us anything it is that the team who wins it all has an ace who can end the game for the other team.   For the 2013 Red Sox, that was Jon Lester.   For the 2014 Giants, it was Madison Bumgarner.  Once Bumgarner toed the rubber in Game 7, it was all over for the Royals.   He was the difference in a hard-fought series.  The Royals simply did not have a pitcher that could shut down the opposition like Bumgarner did for the Giants.  Expecting the Red Sox to go from worst to first to worst to first again is hardly realistic, but if you're building a team with championship aspirations, you need that stopper.  It's amazing that the Royals got as far as they did without a Bumgarner-esque pitcher of their own. 

 When the Red Sox picked up both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, two of the best free agent hitters on the market, in late November, it appeared they were ready to go all in for 2015.   Of course, landing Lester was far from a sure thing, especially since they traded him at the deadline.   However, since Lester is no longer an option, I was hoping they would trade for more of a top of the rotation guy and not a set of mid-rotation arms.   Three #3s do not make a #1.   It's good to have depth to avoid absolute disaster on the back end, but putting the burden on a Porcello, a Miley, or a Masterson to lead the rotation is just not fair.   Porcello, at 25 could surprise us all and become a Bumgarner 2.0, but having to adjust to the AL East won't do him any favors.   Miley will have an even bigger adjustment to make, coming from the pitcher's park haven that was the NL West.   Masterson is coming off a truly dreadful season and looks like more of a reliever than a starter.   Joe Kelly is a good, solid #4.  

 With Lester out of the picture, who should they target to lead the rotation? 

  1.  Jordan Zimmermann:  He would be my first choice, providing he doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie Betts and preferably not Bogaerts or Swihart either.   With the Nats planning on competing, it's going to take a blue chip to land Zimm, even if he's a one-year rental. Even though he comes from the NL, he has enough talent to take a chance on him. 

 2.  Johnny Cueto:  Another potential ace coming from the NL who might command too high a prospect haul and comes with an injury history.  However, if he's healthy and doesn't cost the Red Sox Mookie, Xander, or Blake, he's worth it.  

3.  Max Scherzer:  This one falls under pipe dream because it will require stupid money.  If they couldn't pony up for their home-grown ace, fat chance they shell out the king's ransom for Scherzer.  
  
4. James Shields:  He's getting long in the tooth and his performance in the World Series was a huge red flag, but he's a veteran presence among youngsters and won't cost as much as Lester or Scherzer and no prospects have to be given up to get him.   He's more of a #2 and his best days might be behind him.  Still, he's durable and for 2015 and maybe 2016 he can be that veteran presence at the front of the rotation.  

5. Cole Hamels:  His numbers against the AL are a huge red flag, especially if the Phillies are commanding the best prospects for him.   The Red Sox don't play enough interleague games to take the chance here. 

6. Doug Fister:  Like Shields, he's more of a #2.  He's also a 1-year rental.  However, he's more capable of leading a rotation than any of the current Red Sox starters. 

     The rest of the offseason is going to be interesting, seeing what else, if anything, the Red Sox do to improve the rotation.   If they stand pat, we're looking at a third or fourth place team.   It's better than last place, but it's not going to make them competitive.  

Monday, November 24, 2014

Panda AND Hanley? Can They Pitch?

   I could hardly believe what I was reading this morning when I saw on my facebook news feed that the Red Sox have reached agreements with both Pablo "Panda" Sandoval and erstwhile Sox farmhand turned superstar Hanley Ramirez.  Part of me is thrilled to have two huge impact bats joining an offense-starved team.  Part of me is wondering, is this the 2010-2011 offseason all over again?   Still another part of me is wondering, what about the pitching?  

  This being November 24, the offseason is far from over, so there is plenty of time and still plenty of $$$ to add to the pitching staff.   When you go all in with guys like Panda and Hanley, however, it makes little sense not to add an elite starting pitcher (or two) to a currently laughable rotation.  Signing Lester (or Scherzer) is just about mandatory now, as is bringing aboard a #2 starter that is not a steep drop-off from #1.  

   It's obvious that Panda will play third base, but what isn't so obvious is where Hanley Ramirez will play.   Hanley started his career in the Red Sox system and was traded to the Marlins for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2005.  He has played most of his career at shortstop, but the Red Sox have a promising young shortstop in Xander Bogaerts.  While Bogaerts struggled for much of the year, he finished strong and it would be premature to give up on him as a shortstop.  It's possible Hanley could move to the outfield to pave the way for a Yoenis Cespedes trade.  When Big Papi calls it a career, Hanley could move to DH. 

   This offseason just got real...

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Bring Back Jonny!

    If the Red Sox hope to compete next year, their top priority needs to be signing Jon Lester.   Max Scherzer is out there as well and is considered a better pitcher than Lester--the top free-agent pitching prize on the market.   He presents a bigger risk, however, as he has yet to make the transition from power pitcher to finesse pitcher and he has not played in a market like Boston.   Lester has made the transition and he's spent all but two months of his career in Boston.   Even though he's a year older than Scherzer, he is worth a long term (six-year) deal in the $150m range.   I would certainly not be upset if the Red Sox sign Scherzer to a long-term deal, but I think they would be wiser to turn to the guy they know and they've watched develop. 

   As it stands right now, the Red Sox need two pitchers at the top of the rotation.  Lester, should they be smart and pony up the $$$ and the years for him, solves the #1 slot, but who is #2?   A free agent?  Trade?  There are a lot of nice options on the trade market, but none of them, short of the pipe dream of trading for Chris Sale, are at the level of Lester.  Hamels is close, but his numbers in limited time against the AL have been abysmal.   He would also cost a big prospect haul (Don't trade Mookie!).   Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos of the Reds have been mentioned, as have Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross of the Padres.  The Red Sox need reliable pitchers atop the rotation because Joe Kelly is a #3 at the very best and who knows what we'll get out of Clay Buchholz.  Then, we have the assorted flotsam and jetsam that toed the rubber in August and September to fight for the #5 spot.  Getting that #1, however is the first step.