If you'd have asked anyone at the beginning of the season who would be representing the American League in the 2014 World Series, how many would have picked the Kansas City Royals? Even in the eighth inning of the AL Wild Card game they looked like a long shot, down 7-3 to the A's with Lester on the mound. Something happened in that eighth inning, however, that flipped on a switch that has yet to be flipped off. The Royals wreaked havoc on the basepaths, rallied to tie the game, and won it in extra innings. This set off a chain of events that had the A's, Angels, and Orioles dazed, their mouths hanging open as if to say "Wha happened?" The Orioles, coming straight off their dismantling of the Detroit Tigers, looked poised to make the ALCS a hard-fought series, but the Royals stunned them too.
For fans of Kansas City's blue man baseball group, this playoff appearance, let alone World Series appearance, is long overdue. In 1985, when much of the young roster wasn't yet born, the Royals defeated the Cardinals in the Fall Classic 4 games to 3. If the Cards can extricate themselves from the Giants' October magic, The Missouri Series would have a long-awaited sequel. However, the Giants in the 2010s have been an extremely dangerous team in October, with two previous postseasons of unreal playoff mojo. Can they match the special post-season [barbecue] sauce that Kansas City is cooking up?
If it is indeed the Giants meeting the Royals for the 2014 Fall Classic, it will be the first time in a non-shortened season (of at least 154 games) that neither of the two teams meeting in the World Series won at least 90 games in the regular season. The Royals went 89-73; the Giants went 88-74. Even in the strike-shortened 1995 season (144 games), the Braves won 90 and the Indians won 100. In the Wild Card era, two Wild Card teams have met in the World Series only once before, in 2002, when the Angels beat the Giants 4 games to 3.
Five years ago, the Royals and Orioles were at the bottom of the AL heap. To see those two teams in this year's ALCS is a testament to greater parity in baseball. Player development is in and big spending on free agents on the back nine of their careers is out. That's not to say that teams in transition such as the Red Sox should rely exclusively on youngsters and prospects. That makes for a long rebuilding process, which would send ticket sales, merchandise sales, and NESN ratings plummeting. It just doesn't play in the New England sports market. The Red Sox need a balance of pricey vets and talented youngsters and therein lies the challenge.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Monday, October 13, 2014
Let's Go...Royals?
With apologies to Lorde...
My Red Sox are staying home
And the Nats got taken out by the Giants
I'm not really fond of Buck
And the Cards just made the World Series last year
Chorus:
So now I'm all about Hosmer, Shields, Lorenzo Cain, Greg Holland
Gordon, Butler, Dyson, Vargas, Guthrie
Behind the plate, they've got Salvador Perez
Now they're up two to none--That's what speed do, extra-inning baseball
Cain is able, two games from the World Series
Been fun to watch, they haven't been there since '85
This month I root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL pennant (pennant)
The fall classic's in your reach
So beat the O's, the O's, the O's, the O's
And then win the World Series
The Royals won the first Wild Card
They put the drop on the Oakland A's and Jon Lester
Took the Angels down in three
Then they beat the O's, there in Charm City
Chorus
For October, they're my team
They suffered so many bad seasons
Now it's their time to shine, it stands to reason
To root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL Pennant (pennant)
The Fall Classic's in your reach
So beat the O's the O's the O's the O's
And then win the World Series.
My Red Sox are staying home
And the Nats got taken out by the Giants
I'm not really fond of Buck
And the Cards just made the World Series last year
Chorus:
So now I'm all about Hosmer, Shields, Lorenzo Cain, Greg Holland
Gordon, Butler, Dyson, Vargas, Guthrie
Behind the plate, they've got Salvador Perez
Now they're up two to none--That's what speed do, extra-inning baseball
Cain is able, two games from the World Series
Been fun to watch, they haven't been there since '85
This month I root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL pennant (pennant)
The fall classic's in your reach
So beat the O's, the O's, the O's, the O's
And then win the World Series
The Royals won the first Wild Card
They put the drop on the Oakland A's and Jon Lester
Took the Angels down in three
Then they beat the O's, there in Charm City
Chorus
For October, they're my team
They suffered so many bad seasons
Now it's their time to shine, it stands to reason
To root for the Royals (Royals)
Though I still miss last year
Gotta find a team to cheer
Blue October's in this year
Go win the AL Pennant (pennant)
The Fall Classic's in your reach
So beat the O's the O's the O's the O's
And then win the World Series.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Closing the Book on 2014
I'm sorry I haven't blogged in awhile. I'd drafted some posts, but canned them because they were too knee-jerk and too negative. Now that the season is [mercifully] over, here are my more calm and rational thoughts on 2014 and how the Red Sox can improve for 2015 and beyond.
The 2014 season served as a reminder that exceedingly few prospects transform into legitimate major-leaguers overnight. Even Mike Trout, the poster boy for seamless transition to the big-time, had his struggles at the beginning. Trout's struggles were very brief and his meteoric ascension into superstardom has set the bar impossibly high for prospects around the game. For the sake of this Red Sox blog, we will focus the two prospects that the team attempted to lean heavily on going into the season: Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
For Bradley, who struggled at the plate with limited time in the majors in 2013, he was supposed to be the future in center field--an elite defender with a decent bat that could soften the blow of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to "the dark side". Bradley consistently impressed with his glove, once throwing a ball over the center field wall while standing on home plate, but struggled mightily with the bat, hovering over the Mendoza line all season. For a brief time in July, he looked like he was starting to turn it around, only to return to business as usual for the remainder of the season, even after being sent down to Pawtucket to work on his swing.
Xander Bogaerts had a far more favorable introduction to the Show at the end of the 2013 season and into the post-season, eventually supplanting Will Middlebrooks at third base. He was an impact player when the lights were brightest and looked destined to follow through on the gargantuan potential he was thought to have possessed. Through the early days of the 2014 season, he continued to show promise with the bat, even as he struggled playing shortstop. His defensive struggles at one of the most important defensive positions in the game prompted the Red Sox to make an emergency call to a still-unsigned Stephen Drew. Xander was moved back to third base and Drew's long layoff proved lethal for his lumber.
Around that time, Xander had begun sliding into a slump that no one could have seen coming. He had absolutely vanished at the plate while still dealing with some defensive struggles, leading some fans and media to believe that maybe the hype and pressure to perform in Boston was too much for him after all. How else to explain the baffling disappearance of his bat? The slump was so prolonged that, once Bradley was sent down to Pawtucket, it was fair to wonder whether Bogaerts would follow suit. He never did and his slump continued until mid-August, when he was plunked in the helmet by a pitch and was placed on the 7-day concussion DL. When he re-emerged in the final days of the month, his bat began to register a pulse. The days of rest while on the DL appeared to have been the best thing to happen to him all season, giving him a week away from the game to recoup and regroup. He finished the season on a strong note, batting .313 in September.
The story of the 2014 Red Sox rookies wasn't all about the struggles, however. Brock Holt made a case to be a regular in the lineup when he hit .348 in April after being cut from the major-league squad in favor of Jonathan Herrerra leading up to opening day. His second half saw a rather steep drop-off, but he was the Red Sox' most versatile player and projects more as a super-utility player than a starter.
Mookie Betts wasn't even on the radar in 2013, but he tore up the upper minors in 2014, leading to his first call-up in late June. He had another brief call-up before he was up for good in August. Betts ended the year hitting .291 with 5 HR and 18 RBI, spending his last two weeks playing second in place of the injured Dustin Pedroia. Second base is his natural position, where he is blocked by Pedroia. The 2015 outfield is crowded with Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Betts. Some of those outfielders could be traded and, unfortunately, the most attractive trade chip is the charismatic Mookie, whose style of play is reminiscent of the World Championship 2013 team. It would be painful to trade such a talented and likeable guy. If the reward is right, however (and it would have to be a much-needed #1 or #2 starter or middle-of-the-order bat) such a trade might be a necessary sacrifice (think Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2006).
As for the starting rotation, it would be a gross understatement to say that a lot of things changed from Opening Day to September 28. Gone are Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront. The August and September rotation included the likes of enigmatic Clay Buchholz, trade return Joe Kelly, the Buchholz-esque Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo. Save for a strong performance here and there, it was a rotation of opposing teams' dreams and Red Sox fans' nightmares.
Ironically it was Webster, who, at times looked petrified on a major-league mound, who finished the season the strongest. De La Rosa, as a consequence of being used as a starter early in the season, showed signs of dead arm as the season ended. Workman and Ranaudo might be better off in the bullpen. Joe Kelly looks like a solid mid-back end starter. We know Buchholz is sticking around, for better or worse, unless he is surprisingly dealt in a buy-low trade. What is missing are two legitimate front-line starters and that's where the Red Sox have their work cut out for them, especially if they want to avoid giving out long contracts to pitchers over 30. Jon Lester coming back is a longshot, especially if he pitches the Oakand A's deep into October. Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will also cost a bundle in money and years. James Shields is a few years older and likely less expensive, therefore being the most likely Red Sox target.
The Red Sox made some big gambles that backfired spectacularly on them this year. They gambled on rookies to replace free-agency losses. They threw a monkey wrench into clubhouse chemistry by signing AJ Pierzynski. They relied too heavily on guys like Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino who both had career years in 2013. While Nava recovered from his early season slump, Victorino just couldn't stay on the field. Pedey stayed on the field, but battled yet another secret injury, to the detriment of his batting line. Napoli also battled nagging injuries all over his body that caused him to miss games here and there. The starting pitching, led by Lester and Lackey, kept the team in the game more often than not in the first half, only to have the offense let them down game after game.
The front office has a lot of work to do in getting the Red Sox back to respectability next year. There are lessons to be learned from what happened in 2014. Not all of the problems the Red Sox faced were the result of poor planning. An extreme reversal of fortune, a pendulum swinging wildly the other way after catching more than their share of breaks in 2013, played a role as well. That said, leadership roles within the organization must be at least a subject of discussion in the offseason.
A World Championship season followed by a last-place finish clouds the picture of where or whether improvements need to be made with the coaching staff, but it wouldn't hurt to consider whether, say, a new hitting coach might help maximize the potential of some of the younger players. The makeup of the team in 2013 was heavy with veterans where as the 2014 offense depended on the production of several rookies or near-rookies. A team moving in the direction of younger players has different coaching needs than a veteran-laden squad. To be fair, Greg Colbrunn dealt with health issues during the season. The role of assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez is unclear--how many major league teams have two hitting coaches? Do too many cooks spoil the soup?
The Red Sox having played their final game of 2014, I plan on rooting for my hometown team, the Nationals, in the post-season, hoping they learned their lessons from 2012 and at least make it to the NLCS this time, if not the Fall Classic. I will root for Jon Lester to pitch the A's into the ALDS, partly because there are so many former Red Sox on that team. I can take solace in the fact that neither the Yankees nor the Rays will be playing October baseball either.
The 2014 season served as a reminder that exceedingly few prospects transform into legitimate major-leaguers overnight. Even Mike Trout, the poster boy for seamless transition to the big-time, had his struggles at the beginning. Trout's struggles were very brief and his meteoric ascension into superstardom has set the bar impossibly high for prospects around the game. For the sake of this Red Sox blog, we will focus the two prospects that the team attempted to lean heavily on going into the season: Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
For Bradley, who struggled at the plate with limited time in the majors in 2013, he was supposed to be the future in center field--an elite defender with a decent bat that could soften the blow of losing Jacoby Ellsbury to "the dark side". Bradley consistently impressed with his glove, once throwing a ball over the center field wall while standing on home plate, but struggled mightily with the bat, hovering over the Mendoza line all season. For a brief time in July, he looked like he was starting to turn it around, only to return to business as usual for the remainder of the season, even after being sent down to Pawtucket to work on his swing.
Xander Bogaerts had a far more favorable introduction to the Show at the end of the 2013 season and into the post-season, eventually supplanting Will Middlebrooks at third base. He was an impact player when the lights were brightest and looked destined to follow through on the gargantuan potential he was thought to have possessed. Through the early days of the 2014 season, he continued to show promise with the bat, even as he struggled playing shortstop. His defensive struggles at one of the most important defensive positions in the game prompted the Red Sox to make an emergency call to a still-unsigned Stephen Drew. Xander was moved back to third base and Drew's long layoff proved lethal for his lumber.
Around that time, Xander had begun sliding into a slump that no one could have seen coming. He had absolutely vanished at the plate while still dealing with some defensive struggles, leading some fans and media to believe that maybe the hype and pressure to perform in Boston was too much for him after all. How else to explain the baffling disappearance of his bat? The slump was so prolonged that, once Bradley was sent down to Pawtucket, it was fair to wonder whether Bogaerts would follow suit. He never did and his slump continued until mid-August, when he was plunked in the helmet by a pitch and was placed on the 7-day concussion DL. When he re-emerged in the final days of the month, his bat began to register a pulse. The days of rest while on the DL appeared to have been the best thing to happen to him all season, giving him a week away from the game to recoup and regroup. He finished the season on a strong note, batting .313 in September.
The story of the 2014 Red Sox rookies wasn't all about the struggles, however. Brock Holt made a case to be a regular in the lineup when he hit .348 in April after being cut from the major-league squad in favor of Jonathan Herrerra leading up to opening day. His second half saw a rather steep drop-off, but he was the Red Sox' most versatile player and projects more as a super-utility player than a starter.
Mookie Betts wasn't even on the radar in 2013, but he tore up the upper minors in 2014, leading to his first call-up in late June. He had another brief call-up before he was up for good in August. Betts ended the year hitting .291 with 5 HR and 18 RBI, spending his last two weeks playing second in place of the injured Dustin Pedroia. Second base is his natural position, where he is blocked by Pedroia. The 2015 outfield is crowded with Yoenis Cespedes, Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and Betts. Some of those outfielders could be traded and, unfortunately, the most attractive trade chip is the charismatic Mookie, whose style of play is reminiscent of the World Championship 2013 team. It would be painful to trade such a talented and likeable guy. If the reward is right, however (and it would have to be a much-needed #1 or #2 starter or middle-of-the-order bat) such a trade might be a necessary sacrifice (think Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in 2006).
As for the starting rotation, it would be a gross understatement to say that a lot of things changed from Opening Day to September 28. Gone are Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront. The August and September rotation included the likes of enigmatic Clay Buchholz, trade return Joe Kelly, the Buchholz-esque Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Brandon Workman and Anthony Ranaudo. Save for a strong performance here and there, it was a rotation of opposing teams' dreams and Red Sox fans' nightmares.
Ironically it was Webster, who, at times looked petrified on a major-league mound, who finished the season the strongest. De La Rosa, as a consequence of being used as a starter early in the season, showed signs of dead arm as the season ended. Workman and Ranaudo might be better off in the bullpen. Joe Kelly looks like a solid mid-back end starter. We know Buchholz is sticking around, for better or worse, unless he is surprisingly dealt in a buy-low trade. What is missing are two legitimate front-line starters and that's where the Red Sox have their work cut out for them, especially if they want to avoid giving out long contracts to pitchers over 30. Jon Lester coming back is a longshot, especially if he pitches the Oakand A's deep into October. Cy Young winner Max Scherzer will also cost a bundle in money and years. James Shields is a few years older and likely less expensive, therefore being the most likely Red Sox target.
The Red Sox made some big gambles that backfired spectacularly on them this year. They gambled on rookies to replace free-agency losses. They threw a monkey wrench into clubhouse chemistry by signing AJ Pierzynski. They relied too heavily on guys like Daniel Nava and Shane Victorino who both had career years in 2013. While Nava recovered from his early season slump, Victorino just couldn't stay on the field. Pedey stayed on the field, but battled yet another secret injury, to the detriment of his batting line. Napoli also battled nagging injuries all over his body that caused him to miss games here and there. The starting pitching, led by Lester and Lackey, kept the team in the game more often than not in the first half, only to have the offense let them down game after game.
The front office has a lot of work to do in getting the Red Sox back to respectability next year. There are lessons to be learned from what happened in 2014. Not all of the problems the Red Sox faced were the result of poor planning. An extreme reversal of fortune, a pendulum swinging wildly the other way after catching more than their share of breaks in 2013, played a role as well. That said, leadership roles within the organization must be at least a subject of discussion in the offseason.
A World Championship season followed by a last-place finish clouds the picture of where or whether improvements need to be made with the coaching staff, but it wouldn't hurt to consider whether, say, a new hitting coach might help maximize the potential of some of the younger players. The makeup of the team in 2013 was heavy with veterans where as the 2014 offense depended on the production of several rookies or near-rookies. A team moving in the direction of younger players has different coaching needs than a veteran-laden squad. To be fair, Greg Colbrunn dealt with health issues during the season. The role of assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez is unclear--how many major league teams have two hitting coaches? Do too many cooks spoil the soup?
The Red Sox having played their final game of 2014, I plan on rooting for my hometown team, the Nationals, in the post-season, hoping they learned their lessons from 2012 and at least make it to the NLCS this time, if not the Fall Classic. I will root for Jon Lester to pitch the A's into the ALDS, partly because there are so many former Red Sox on that team. I can take solace in the fact that neither the Yankees nor the Rays will be playing October baseball either.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
It's a Sad, Sad, Sad, Sad World
No, Lester hasn't been traded yet, but it seems all but inevitable now. Rumors are circulating about Lackey being traded as well. Imagine a rotation led by Clay Buchholz. Sad and scary times indeed! The offense is doing their usual sputtering thing, even though Xander is showing signs of improvement at the plate, if not in the field. On the other hand, JBJ seems to have undone whatever progress he had made. The Red Sox were annihilated by the Blue Jays yet again and have dug themselves back to 12 games under .500. They are a worse team this year than they were in the 93-loss 2012, led by Bobby Valentine.
If they lose 40 of the 54 games remaining, they will lose 100 games for the first time in nearly 50 years. After winning a World Series, however improbable and fluky that win was, following it up with a 100 loss season is hard to fathom. It's about as Jekyll and Hyde as it comes. The current ownership may have seen three World Championships in its tenure, but it has also seen the team go from worst to first back down to worst again (and, in all likelihood, even worse than the first "worst".). The trade deadline may very well be a fire sale leading to a long rebuilding process. They ownership may spin a tale about quick rebuilding, but when you sell away your top pitcher, a homegrown guy at that, with no ready replacement, no "Plan B", the quick rebuild story is BS. Sell off Lackey too? Is the plan "Wait 'til 2020"? Or is there a plan at all?
Winning the World Series last year was a great thing, but it raised expectations. As for me, I wasn't expecting a repeat. I was, however, expecting them to at least be competitive, or even somewhat respectable. But this? I was not expecting this, but maybe I should have been. After all, the front office did some significant subtraction from the team what won it all without adding much to offset what they took away. What kind of message did that send the team? "Sorry, but we're not going to help you this year. You're on your own. Good luck with that."?
What the Red Sox are putting out on the field now is disheartening, depressing, and a far cry from just a short year ago. With the moves the front office seems to want to make, expect more of the same in the years to come. I fail to see how drifting about aimlessly in the bottom of the MLB barrel will help the development of the prospects on which the Red Sox are banking so heavily.
If they lose 40 of the 54 games remaining, they will lose 100 games for the first time in nearly 50 years. After winning a World Series, however improbable and fluky that win was, following it up with a 100 loss season is hard to fathom. It's about as Jekyll and Hyde as it comes. The current ownership may have seen three World Championships in its tenure, but it has also seen the team go from worst to first back down to worst again (and, in all likelihood, even worse than the first "worst".). The trade deadline may very well be a fire sale leading to a long rebuilding process. They ownership may spin a tale about quick rebuilding, but when you sell away your top pitcher, a homegrown guy at that, with no ready replacement, no "Plan B", the quick rebuild story is BS. Sell off Lackey too? Is the plan "Wait 'til 2020"? Or is there a plan at all?
Winning the World Series last year was a great thing, but it raised expectations. As for me, I wasn't expecting a repeat. I was, however, expecting them to at least be competitive, or even somewhat respectable. But this? I was not expecting this, but maybe I should have been. After all, the front office did some significant subtraction from the team what won it all without adding much to offset what they took away. What kind of message did that send the team? "Sorry, but we're not going to help you this year. You're on your own. Good luck with that."?
What the Red Sox are putting out on the field now is disheartening, depressing, and a far cry from just a short year ago. With the moves the front office seems to want to make, expect more of the same in the years to come. I fail to see how drifting about aimlessly in the bottom of the MLB barrel will help the development of the prospects on which the Red Sox are banking so heavily.
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Just Pay Him Already!
If you heard the "ka-chings" that went off after every strikeout, every scoreless inning of Jon Lester's outing against the Royals today, that was the southpaw's price tag getting higher. Lester blanked Kansas City over 8 frames, earning his tenth win and the first Red Sox sweep of an opponent since Big Papi was in Little League. In one corner is Jon Lester, his 2.50 ERA, his history of post-season dominance, and his 200-inning durability. In the other corner, Ben Cherington and a pathologically gun-shy front office who would sooner call Brian Cashman up with Lester's jersey size than give him a long-term, big-money contract extension. Yes, the Carl Crawford mega-contract bombed. Yes, Adrian Gonzalez left his power on the West Coast. No, neither Gonzalez nor Crawford were brought up in the Red Sox system and neither knew beforehand what it was like to play in a baseball and media-crazed city like Boston.
Taking a gamble on Lester would be taking a gamble on a known entity as far as how well he could pitch in the AL East and handle playing in Boston, pitching at a hitter's park like Fenway. Sure he had a crappy 2012 and he gets a little agitated when calls don't go his way, but he's battle-tested in one of the toughest markets in MLB. All free-agent pitchers of his talent level and career pedigree are going to be paid up the wazoo. If the Red Sox think they can replace Lester by a trade or another free agent, they would be taking a bigger risk than extending him even if the "replacement" is on a shorter deal. Why? It's unknown how said "replacement" will respond to pitching in conditions that Lester has pitched in for the past seven years.
Replacing Lester from within the farm has its own risks, the greatest of which is the unfair pressure he would inevitably be under to be the new ace of the staff. None of the current pitchers in the rotation are front-line material. Lackey, if he returns, will be 36 and he has battled some inconsistency of late. Buchholz has been wildly inconsistent and has trouble staying healthy. Peavy is gone, likely at the trade deadline, and Workman and De La Rosa project as back-of-the-rotation guys. Even top pitching prospect Henry Owens is projected to be a #2 or #3 at best and he has yet to pitch in the major leagues.
If the Red Sox want to contend next year, they need to sign Lester. As Lester ages, maybe one of the youngsters will outperform his projection and become an ace, but asking him to be #1 from the moment he suits up for his Red Sox debut is not the way to go. They have enough young players making league minimum that they can afford to sign Lester to the kind of deal he deserves. The only question is, will they pony up and do it or go small market and try to sell a multi-year rebuilding process with the highest ticket prices in baseball.
Taking a gamble on Lester would be taking a gamble on a known entity as far as how well he could pitch in the AL East and handle playing in Boston, pitching at a hitter's park like Fenway. Sure he had a crappy 2012 and he gets a little agitated when calls don't go his way, but he's battle-tested in one of the toughest markets in MLB. All free-agent pitchers of his talent level and career pedigree are going to be paid up the wazoo. If the Red Sox think they can replace Lester by a trade or another free agent, they would be taking a bigger risk than extending him even if the "replacement" is on a shorter deal. Why? It's unknown how said "replacement" will respond to pitching in conditions that Lester has pitched in for the past seven years.
Replacing Lester from within the farm has its own risks, the greatest of which is the unfair pressure he would inevitably be under to be the new ace of the staff. None of the current pitchers in the rotation are front-line material. Lackey, if he returns, will be 36 and he has battled some inconsistency of late. Buchholz has been wildly inconsistent and has trouble staying healthy. Peavy is gone, likely at the trade deadline, and Workman and De La Rosa project as back-of-the-rotation guys. Even top pitching prospect Henry Owens is projected to be a #2 or #3 at best and he has yet to pitch in the major leagues.
If the Red Sox want to contend next year, they need to sign Lester. As Lester ages, maybe one of the youngsters will outperform his projection and become an ace, but asking him to be #1 from the moment he suits up for his Red Sox debut is not the way to go. They have enough young players making league minimum that they can afford to sign Lester to the kind of deal he deserves. The only question is, will they pony up and do it or go small market and try to sell a multi-year rebuilding process with the highest ticket prices in baseball.
Sunday, July 13, 2014
A Shred of Optimism
To say Red Sox 2014 season has been horrible is a gross understatement. Bad decisions and good ones that didn't work out are both to blame for the hideous hangover season that transformed the Sox from a run-producing machine to a lethargic opportunity-wasting bunch of hopeless hackers. That being said, one of the leaden clouds over this year's team (but certainly not the only one!) has been removed in the DFA-ing of AJ Pierzynski. Replacing the free-swinging, abrasively opinionated veteran backstop is young defensive whiz Christian Vazquez, who was promoted from Pawtucket in time for Wednesday night's walk-off win. Vazquez has impressed so far not only with the glove, as was to be expected, but with the bat as well. Granted, the sample size is minuscule and the competition is either not much better than (White Sox) or worse than (Astros) the Red Sox, but having a guy who can control the opponents' running game is an upgrade even if the offensive spark does not last.
The jettisoning of Pierzynski is a sign that the front office is committed to using 2014 as a proving ground for promising prospects since they are an extreme longshot for contention this year. If they can unload Peavy, who has actually pitched fairly well of late, if lacking in run support to improve his record, they will clear a rotation spot for Rubby De La Rosa or one of the other talented arms biding their time in AAA.
As far as the youngsters currently on the team are concerned, Jackie Bradley, Jr, in particular, is finally starting to put it together at the plate. His Gold-Glove caliber defense in center field has allowed him some time to work on getting his bat up to speed and the results are starting to show. Mookie Betts has seen his hot streak cool down significantly since getting called up to the bigs, but he looks like he's making the necessary adjustments and his speed is something that has been sorely lacking in the Sox lineup since Ells departed for The Dark Side. Xander Bogaerts is slowly, but surely coming out of his deep slump. Brock Holt is still abusing baseballs with not a hair out of place and has played every position but pitcher and catcher.
On the pitching side of things, Brandon Workman has hit a bump in the road since returning from his controversial suspension. He is winless since then and has seen his ERA balloon to 4.13. Rubby De La Rosa struggled a bit in Pawtucket upon being demoted in a roster crunch last month and came up last Wednesday with a so-so outing (5 IP, 3 R). Though not a rookie by any stretch, Clay Buchholz has appreciably improved since coming off the DL. He helped the Sox take an easy 11-0 win over the Astros by pitching a complete-game shutout.
Since Pierzynski was DFA'ed, the Red Sox are 4-1 with two walk-off wins. Granted, the stretch was against the White Sox and the Astros, not the A's and Tigers, but with the depths the Sox had sunk to so far in '14 (ahem, being swept by the Cubs), I'll take that 4-1 stretch no matter who the opponent. The improvements the rookies (among others) have made will, in all likelihood, not get them anywhere close to undoing the damage done to the season so far. However, if they can pick up where they left off once the All-Star Break ends, at least they will be a more fun team to watch.
The jettisoning of Pierzynski is a sign that the front office is committed to using 2014 as a proving ground for promising prospects since they are an extreme longshot for contention this year. If they can unload Peavy, who has actually pitched fairly well of late, if lacking in run support to improve his record, they will clear a rotation spot for Rubby De La Rosa or one of the other talented arms biding their time in AAA.
As far as the youngsters currently on the team are concerned, Jackie Bradley, Jr, in particular, is finally starting to put it together at the plate. His Gold-Glove caliber defense in center field has allowed him some time to work on getting his bat up to speed and the results are starting to show. Mookie Betts has seen his hot streak cool down significantly since getting called up to the bigs, but he looks like he's making the necessary adjustments and his speed is something that has been sorely lacking in the Sox lineup since Ells departed for The Dark Side. Xander Bogaerts is slowly, but surely coming out of his deep slump. Brock Holt is still abusing baseballs with not a hair out of place and has played every position but pitcher and catcher.
On the pitching side of things, Brandon Workman has hit a bump in the road since returning from his controversial suspension. He is winless since then and has seen his ERA balloon to 4.13. Rubby De La Rosa struggled a bit in Pawtucket upon being demoted in a roster crunch last month and came up last Wednesday with a so-so outing (5 IP, 3 R). Though not a rookie by any stretch, Clay Buchholz has appreciably improved since coming off the DL. He helped the Sox take an easy 11-0 win over the Astros by pitching a complete-game shutout.
Since Pierzynski was DFA'ed, the Red Sox are 4-1 with two walk-off wins. Granted, the stretch was against the White Sox and the Astros, not the A's and Tigers, but with the depths the Sox had sunk to so far in '14 (ahem, being swept by the Cubs), I'll take that 4-1 stretch no matter who the opponent. The improvements the rookies (among others) have made will, in all likelihood, not get them anywhere close to undoing the damage done to the season so far. However, if they can pick up where they left off once the All-Star Break ends, at least they will be a more fun team to watch.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Fire Sale: Everything (but Lester) must go!
With the Red Sox firmly entrenched in The Land of Crappy Baseball (to put it mildly), it's become more clear than ever that they should be sellers at the trade deadline. One big exception to the sell, sell, sell mantra is Jon Lester. Jon Lester may not at the very top of the major league pitching pyramid and he has his drawbacks, but he's the best pitcher the Red Sox have at the moment and he is a proven post-season stud. The Red Sox may have a farm full of young pitching, but none of those arms currently projects higher than mid-rotation. Ergo, there is currently nobody to take Lester's place should he depart for free agency in the off-season.
Ben Cherington is a GM who is loath to give out long-term deals to free agents. His strategy may have worked in 2013, but most of the time it reads as small-market strategy that puts a team in perpetual rebuilding mode. The Red Sox are not a small-market team. They can afford to give out large, long-term contracts to the right players. The key is determining who the right players are. I believe that Lester is one of those "right players" and that failing to extend him is as good as fitting him with pinstripes. The Yankee way of relying on aging stars at the expense of developing the farm has its own problems, but a combination of developing young talent and ponying up for the proven veteran is a strategy that should keep a team contending most years.
If the Red Sox don't extend Jon Lester, which would be a huge mistake as far as I'm concerned, they could face a multi-year rebuild that would not go over so well with the fanbase. Some rebuilding is necessary, but waiting three or four years for a new frontline pitcher to establish himself, if that even happens, could mean more seasons just like this one. There are options on the free agent market, but the ones worth paying (i.e. Scherzer) would cost just as much, if not more, than the one who has proven he can handle playing in Boston and pitching in a hitter's park like Fenway.
As far as who the Red Sox can part with, the first to go should be A.J. Pierzynski. The return of the whining and excuse making that characterized the 2012 team under Bobby Valentine suggests that something is rotten in the Red Sox clubhouse. It may not be fair to dump all the blame on Pierzynski, but he came to Boston with a reputation for rubbing his teammates the wrong way. Peavy is next in line and his back-to-back quality starts should help his trade value. Lackey shouldn't be untouchable either. Gomes, Carp, Mujica, Badenhop, Breslow, and even Koji could be shopped. The prospect haul might not be that impressive, but it clears the way for some of the young talent on the farm to get their feet wet at the major league level. Some might not be ready for prime time, but this season is lost anyway. The Red Sox might as well see what they've got in some of those kids.
Ben Cherington is a GM who is loath to give out long-term deals to free agents. His strategy may have worked in 2013, but most of the time it reads as small-market strategy that puts a team in perpetual rebuilding mode. The Red Sox are not a small-market team. They can afford to give out large, long-term contracts to the right players. The key is determining who the right players are. I believe that Lester is one of those "right players" and that failing to extend him is as good as fitting him with pinstripes. The Yankee way of relying on aging stars at the expense of developing the farm has its own problems, but a combination of developing young talent and ponying up for the proven veteran is a strategy that should keep a team contending most years.
If the Red Sox don't extend Jon Lester, which would be a huge mistake as far as I'm concerned, they could face a multi-year rebuild that would not go over so well with the fanbase. Some rebuilding is necessary, but waiting three or four years for a new frontline pitcher to establish himself, if that even happens, could mean more seasons just like this one. There are options on the free agent market, but the ones worth paying (i.e. Scherzer) would cost just as much, if not more, than the one who has proven he can handle playing in Boston and pitching in a hitter's park like Fenway.
As far as who the Red Sox can part with, the first to go should be A.J. Pierzynski. The return of the whining and excuse making that characterized the 2012 team under Bobby Valentine suggests that something is rotten in the Red Sox clubhouse. It may not be fair to dump all the blame on Pierzynski, but he came to Boston with a reputation for rubbing his teammates the wrong way. Peavy is next in line and his back-to-back quality starts should help his trade value. Lackey shouldn't be untouchable either. Gomes, Carp, Mujica, Badenhop, Breslow, and even Koji could be shopped. The prospect haul might not be that impressive, but it clears the way for some of the young talent on the farm to get their feet wet at the major league level. Some might not be ready for prime time, but this season is lost anyway. The Red Sox might as well see what they've got in some of those kids.
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