Different Manager, Same Results

Maybe I was being overly optimistic about the team coming out of a much-improved Spring Training. On April 4th, they looked like a team who was better prepared to start the season, in contrast to last year's edition. What I didn't anticipate was that they'd only be one game better once the games started to count. For a team that supposedly wants to put September 2011 behind them, their play in the first 6 games of the season isn't helping to put that disaster in the rear view mirror.

Only a small handful of players, including Lester and Pedey, have come out of the gate playing like they should be. Youk's doing his best impression of former teammate Mike Lowell, circa 2010. Beckett and Buchholz gave up 7 runs apiece. Bard is still very much a work-in-progress. MVP runner-up Ells looks lost at the plate. The Salt Shop platoon is inept both at and behind the plate. The Mike Aviles and Cody Ross of ST are history. The left side of the infield has more holes than swiss cheese. The offense as a whole is feast or famine, with an emphasis on the famine. Is it any wonder they are 1-5 heading into their home opener? It beats 0-6, but not by much.

There are a few positives in the 6-game sample that give us some, albeit small, reason to hope better days are ahead. Aside from Lester taking the leadership role he talked about in ST and putting up two very strong starts (even though, thanks to the lack of run support, he has no Ws to show for it) and Pedey trying to carry the offense by himself, Felix Doubront's start was promising. If Doubront can get his pitch count down and go deeper into games, he can really make a case for remaining in the rotation when Dice-K returns. Adrian Gonzalez has not been too bad either, with a homer and 6 RBI to his name. Scott Atchison and Vicente Padilla each impressed in long relief. Aceves put his atrocious first 2 attempts behind him and nailed down his first save on Monday night in Toronto, retiring the side in order after his teammates came from behind in the top of the 9th.

One thing this team had in ST that they don't have now is hungry young players eager to make a good first impression. The Red Sox have always been conservative in bringing young talent up to the major league level, but in this case, I think some young blood could spark the team out of its early season lethargy. Ryan Lavarnway is the most ready to come up and, with Youk struggling and looking like he belongs on a local softball team, the Sox could use a right-handed power bat in their lineup. Salt Shop are bringing virtually nothing to the table offensively or defensively, so it's time to cut bait with one of them and make Lavarnway the starting catcher. Making him a backup would not give him enough at-bats to continue his development and he can't be much worse defensively than Salt Shop. If Youk doesn't de-zombify soon, Middlebrooks is waiting in the wings. Also, Iglesias may not be able to hit much at all, but his glove could really help the pitching staff. Could he be taught to bunt for a base hit?

The Sox face a tough opponent tomorrow in the Tampa Bay Rays, who have had their number since 2008. Josh "Gopher Ball" Beckett is on the mound tomorrow and if he serves 'em up like he did last Saturday in Detroit, the boo-birds won't let him hear the end of it. His role in the September collapse and his dodging of responsibility for that debacle already rubs a lot of fans the wrong way. Add in a "performance" like last Saturday and things could get ugly fast.

A 1-5 start doesn't mean the season's already over, but it understandably puts me and the rest of Sox Nation on edge. The team and organization have taken a huge credibility hit since last season and many sports pundits feel they are no longer relevant among the contending teams. Bobby V has his work cut out for him this year and I certainly don't envy being in his position.

Leaky Pen

As far as Opening Day losses go, this one wasn't quite so hard to take. Sure, it was disappointing, but my expectations going into this game were tempered by the presence of a certain Detroit Tiger wearing a 35 on the back of his jersey, fresh off a season where he won both the Cy Young and the MVP. Yes, the pitching machine known as Justin Verlander toed the rubber for the Tigers today and performed as anticipated, buzz-sawing through a strong Red Sox lineup as elite pitchers are known to do.

Jon Lester, for his part, nearly matched Verlander, keeping the Tigers in their cages and off the scoreboard for 6 2/3 innings. He allowed more hits and more base runners than Verlander, but double plays and excellent work from the stretch kept Miggy, Prince & company at bay until the 7th inning. With 2 outs, Jhonny Peralta doubled and Alex Avila, whom Lester thought he had struck out, lined a double of his own just out of the reach of Cody Ross in left field. Peralta scored the game's first run. Lester struck out Ramon Santiago to end the inning. He went 7 innings with 6 hits, 3 walks, and 1 run. That's good enough to win most games. Games where his teammates don't have to face the likes of Justin Verlander, that is.

Vicente Padilla relieved Lester and promptly gave up a triple to Austin Jackson--a ball that Ryan Sweeney misplayed in right and ultimately led to the second Tigers run when Franklin Morales, in relief of Padilla, allowed Prince Fielder to hit a sac fly. The Red Sox, facing Valverde, who hadn't blown a save since 2010, put 2 on the board thanks to a double by Pedey, a single by Gonzo, a sac fly by Papi, and a redemptive triple by Sweeney. Blown save for Valverde!

Unfortunately, the Sox' rally to tie the game fell victim to a shaky back end of the bullpen in the bottom of the ninth. Melancon took the mound and after recording one out, Peralta and Avila strike again, both singling on hard-hit balls to right and left field respectively. Bobby V yanked Melancon and fetched Aceves in an effort to force extra innings. Aceves, in his debut as the newly-minted Red Sox closer in the absence of Andrew Bailey, couldn't get the job done, hitting the first batter he faced to load the bases with one out. Along came Austin Jackson who roped a single past a diving Nick Punto and the Tigers walk off with the win.

Being on the wrong side of a walk-off is not the best way to start the season, but some good things can be taken from this game, besides the fact that Verlander can't pitch again in this series. Jon Lester's start this Opening Day, unlike last year, was very strong. He stepped up and delivered, even if he didn't come away with a win. Also, the Sox offense showed some grit and came back to tie the game in the ninth Truth be told, they were probably just glad to see a pitcher other than Verlander on the mound.

After an off-day tomorrow, Beckett starts on Saturday against Doug Fister. Time to even up the series, boys!

Ready or Not Part II: The Pitchers

Last night, I posted my comments and predictions on the position players. Tonight it's the pitchers' turn. The pitchers are the wild cards for the Red Sox in 2012. You just never know what you're going to expect from them, especially at the back end of the rotation and in the bullpen. The pitching staff as it is constituted this year makes the Red Sox the underdogs in both the division and the league. Let's see what each pitcher on the current roster brings to the table:

#1 SP, Jon Lester: Lester is the one most likely to have a consistently good season, given his track record. After all, he was named the Opening Day starter for a reason. He's also the one most likely to pitch at least 200 innings, though he fell short last season. He has stated coming into this season that he wants to take more of a leadership role on the staff and now is as good of an opportunity as any. At 28, he is in his prime and has the potential to be in the running for a Cy Young. The key will be keeping the pitch count (and walks) down and going deep into games.

#2 SP, Josh Beckett: Beckett goes into this season with a thumb issue that bears watching. That said, he had a strong Spring Training and looks ready to start off the season on a good note. He took a lot of flak in the offseason for his part in the "chicken and beer" kerfluffle and for putting on weight as the season went on. Still he finished the season with an ERA under 3 (2.89 to be exact) and until he hurt his ankle in September, he was one of the best pitchers in the league. This would be a good year for him to break the "even year curse"--over the course of his career with the Red Sox, he has always pitched better in odd-numbered years than even numbered years. In order to contend, the Sox desperately need him to be a reasonable facsimile of the pitcher he was up until the final 2 weeks of last year.

#3 SP, Clay Buchholz: Last year, Buchholz' season was derailed by a broken back. He only pitched the first 2 1/2 months of the season before back pain sidelined him and he was later diagnosed (later being the operative word here) with a stress fracture. His ERA before the injury was a very respectable 3.48. If he can stay healthy and keep the ball down in the zone, it would go a long way toward solidifying the Red Sox rotation. If he struggles or gets hurt, the lack of pitching depth gets exposed in a heartbeat.

#4 SP, Felix Doubront: It's make-or-break time for Doubront, who is out of options and lost a year due to injury last season. He came to camp in much better shape this year and pitched impressively in ST. Can he keep up the quality pitching over the course of the season? That remains to be seen. However, what I saw this spring gives me reason for hope.

#5 SP, Daniel Bard: Bard is an experiment-in-progress this season. He's going from 8th inning setup man to starting pitcher, which is no small change from an innings standpoint. Going from pitching one inning to five plus changes a pitcher's approach to the game. He has to pace himself more and not throw every fastball at 100 mph. The results in ST were less than convincing that the rotation is where he belongs, but the Red Sox are committed to giving him the chance to start and hoping he can better command his stuff with each start. Command is going to be an issue for him and high pitch counts could mean early exits and more exposure of an already questionable bullpen. However, it's hard to imagine he'll be worse than Lackey last year.

CL, Alfredo Aceves: When Andrew Bailey went down with his bum thumb, Bobby V named Aceves the closer to start the year. Was this move to prevent the fiery pitcher from threatening mutiny after he lost out on a spot in the rotation? Perhaps, but there's a chance the versatile Aceves can thrive in this role, today's results notwithstanding. Someone needs to hold the fort down until Bailey comes back and Aceves appears better suited than Melancon to close in a market like Boston.

RP, Mark Melancon: Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland netted this former closer for the Houston Astros who is being tried in the setup role for the Red Sox. His results in ST were less than inspiring, however, and today he wasn't fooling the Tigers he faced. Let's hope for improvement sooner rather than later because there are few alternatives for this role.

RP, Franklin Morales: Morales is one of the two lefties in the Red Sox bullpen to start the season and of the two, he has by far the best chance of staying with the team. His ST innings were limited due to a health scare that has since been resolved. Of the remaining relievers, he is the only other one who could take over the setup role if Melancon can't get in a groove, but that would take him out of the situational lefty role.

RP, Matt Albers: Albers had an up and down season in 2011, with the "up" coming early on and the "down" blowing his ERA up to over 4. Until he can prove himself more consistent, he will likely be relegated to low-leverage situations.

RP, Scott Atchison: Atchison is an underrated long reliever/spot starter who posted a 3.62 ERA last season. He's not dominant by any stretch of the imagination, but he can give the Sox some quality innings when called upon.

RP, Vicente Padilla: Padilla can be hit or miss and features that slow eephus curveball that can really throw hitters off. He doesn't give me too much confidence in high-leverage situations, however.

RP, Michael Bowden: Like Doubront, this is make-or-break time for Bowden. His previous stints in the majors have been unsuccessful and he's out of minor-league options. He hasn't shown me he can be trusted when the game's on the line, however, and right now it looks like the bullpen has plenty of mop-up guys.

RP, Justin Thomas: Another candidate for mop-up duty, Thomas brings a career ERA over 6 and owes his roster spot to being left-handed and to Bobby V wanting to carry 13 pitchers. I predict he will be the first to go once Andrew Miller becomes available or V wants to add another bench player.

Coming Attractions: They're not on the 25-man roster now, but Aaron Cook, Rich Hill, and Daisuke Matsuzaka are on the horizon and have the potential to shore up the shaky pitching staff. Cook projects to be available the soonest, after getting a few more starts in Pawtucket under his belt. If either Doubront or Bard prove incapable of holding their spots in the rotation, Aaron Cook could be waiting in the wings. He has a May 1 opt-out date and he looked healthy and strong in ST.

Rich Hill could be back as early as May. He was dominant last year up until his elbow gave out and needed Tommy John. Dice-K could be back before the All-Star Break if all goes well. What he will bring in his return is unknown, given the enigma he has been so far in his Major League career. Bobby V's presence and his experience managing in Japan could ease his transition back into the rotation or it could have no effect at all. Predicting Dice-K can prove to be an exercise in futility.

Ready Or Not, Here Come the 2012 Red Sox

For better or for worse, the 2012 season begins for the Red Sox tomorrow afternoon at 1:05. What can we expect from it? On paper, they are, at best, candidates for that second wild card spot. That's a far cry from last year, when they were near-unanimous picks for the World Series, but we know how that ended. Here's the first part my breakdown of the 25-man roster as it stands for tomorrow's season opener:

Position Players

1B, Adrian Gonzalez: Gonzo's first season as a Red Sox was a successful one, if somewhat lopsided in favor of the first half. He hit .338 with a .410 OBP and .957 OPS. The home runs were down a bit (27) but he led the league in both average and RBI (117) for the better part of the season. Coming off of shoulder surgery, that was pretty impressive. Participating in the Home Run Derby with a shoulder that wasn't 100% didn't do him any favors, however, and his numbers tailed off at the end of the season. This season, I expect the average to be not quite as high, but an uptick on the power, seeing that his shoulder has completely healed. He'll provide the usual Gold Glove-quality defense at first base.

2B, Dustin Pedroia: Pedey is now sans foot screw and I expect a Pedeyesque season from him: .300-ish average, around 25 steals and 15-20 singers. Last season he hit .307/.387/.474 (.861 OPS), 21 HR, 91 RBI and stole 26 bases. His defense earned him a Gold Glove.

SS, Mike Aviles: Aviles was acquired at the trade deadline in exchange for Yamaico Navarro and won the starting shortstop job after an impressive Spring Training. There shouldn't be too much drop off from last year's SS, Marco Scutaro. In fact, Aviles may even be better, both in the field and at the plate. He's 5 years younger, so that helps too. While Iglesias is in Pawtucket trying to learn how to hit his way out of a wet paper bag, Aviles should do a fine job at short.

3B, Kevin Youkilis: Oh Youk, please tell me you're not the next Mike Lowell or JD Drew in the rapid baseball player aging department. Spring Training didn't provide any reassurances that the Youk of a couple of years ago is back and 3B is a very physically demanding position. Youk's 2011 numbers: .258/.373/.459 (.833 OPS) with 17 HR, 80 RBI, and 3 SB. I honestly don't know what to expect from Youk this year. I'm hoping he can improve on the .258 and hit at least .270. Oh, and if it's not too tall and order, stay healthy!

C, Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Salty's first full year at the major league level was last year and he hit .235/.288/.450 (.737 OPS) which was not too bad for a catcher. He hit 16 long balls and knocked in 56 runs. He did a decent job throwing out base runners. I anticipate his numbers this year will be similar to last year, maybe better if the majority of his plate appearances come against righties. With Kelly Shoppach's numbers against lefties, that could very well happen.

LF, Cody Ross: Ross had a down year last year for the Giants after his heroics in the 2010 postseason, but he has shown a lot of promise (and opposite field power) in Spring Training and, in the absence of Carl Crawford, he will be the starting left fielder for at least the first month of the season. I'm thinking he'll hit around .260 with 20+ homers and around 60-70 RBI. He'll launch his share of taters over the Monster.

CF, Jacoby Ellsbury: 2011 was huge for Ells. He hit .321 with a team-leading 32 homers and knocked in 105 runs. The homer total was staggering, given that he had never hit in the double-digits in dingers before. Was the power surge a one-season fluke or is he, like Jose Bautista in Toronto, coming into his own as a power hitter. Another season with 25+ round-trippers would go a long way in favor of the latter, but it will also drive his price up in free agency. Ells is 28 and will be 29 in September--he is in his prime and I expect a small amount of regression, but still all-star numbers from the guy who came in second in the MVP voting.

RF, Ryan Sweeney: Sweeney came over in the deal for Andrew Bailey. He's known for hitting for a decent average, but with a conspicuous lack of power for someone with his build. He's an excellent defensive player. He'll probably hit in the .270s or .280s with maybe a home run or two. Once Crawford comes back, he'll be competing with Cody Ross for the right field job.

DH, David Ortiz: Big Papi's 2011 resembled the kind of seasons he had in his prime. He hit .309/.398/554 (.953 OPS) with 29 HR and 96 RBI. He tailed off a bit toward the end, especially in September, but his numbers were good enough to keep him in Boston for another year, albeit at a price way above market for a DH. He isn't getting any younger, so it's hard to predict what he'll do in 2012. It would be nice if he hits around .300 again and goes yard at least 25 times, especially considering his salary.

OF, Darnell McDonald: D-Mac burst onto the scene in 2010 when Ells collided with the freight train known as Adrian Beltre. That season he hit .270 while playing serviceable defense and became one of the feel-good stories of the season. Last season he had trouble adjusting to the reduced playing time and hit under the Mendoza line for most of the season. He came around in the second half and raised his average to .236. He impressed Bobby V in Spring Training and earned the 4th outfielder spot, but what will happen when Crawford comes back? Presuming (though it's dangerous to do so) that everyone else is healthy, will V carry 5 outfielders? D-Mac can make his case for sticking around by playing like he did in Spring Training.

IF, Nick Punto: Punto was signed in the off-season to be a defensively-minded utility infielder. He had a decent season with the bat last year, hitting .278, but he's a career .249 hitter. He can play all four infield positions and, if you're superstitious, maybe he'll lend some of his World Series mojo to his new team (he was a member of the 2011 World Champion Cardinals).

C, Kelly Shoppach: Shop is back in Boston, having started his career with the Red Sox in 2005. After four seasons in Cleveland and two in Tampa Bay, he was signed as a free agent this winter to back up Salty behind the plate. Overall, his bat isn't too impressive, but he can hit lefties and he's got some power. He's an excellent thrower-outer of base runners.

To Be Continued

Red Sox Injury Flavor-Of-The-Month: The Bum Thumb

Perhaps this team should be re-named The Glass Menagerie, with "Fragile, Handle With Care" stamped on their uniforms. It's not even Opening Day and the DL is already in mid-season form. The latest member of the Big Ouchie Club: Andrew Bailey, whose bum thumb is going under the knife and putting him out of commission for at least half the season. You know who else has thumb trouble? Josh Beckett, who is seeking a third opinion on that vexing digit. Yes, a third opinion. The Red Sox #2 starter had better not join Bailey on the operating table or things could get ugly in short order. The starting rotation is skin and bones even with Beckett. Without him, I shudder to think how both the rotation and bullpen will suffer.

Will the #4 and #5 Starters Please Stand Up?

Bard, Aceves, and Doubront. With a week to go until Opening Day on April 5, the final two spots in the rotation are still up for grabs. Well, at least one of them. Felix Doubront has pitched well enough in Spring Training to have earned a spot and being a lefty certainly helps. The other one is still being fought over by two relievers who have the stuff to start. The question is, which one can command his stuff over at least six innings and keep his team in the game?

Going by Spring Training results, the answer appears to be Alfredo Aceves (last Saturday's start against the Phillies notwithstanding). Bard seems to have more trouble in the command department, channelling Dice-K and Miller in his most recent starts. The AL East isn't getting any easier and teams need deep rotations to compete. It's a big gamble to send Bard out there to give up a handful of runs (and walks) every 5th day, putting pressure on both the offense and the rest of the starting rotation. If Aceves, as valuable as he is to the bullpen, can command his stuff, keep walks and runs to a minimum, and pitch deeper into games, he should get that last spot.

What of Aaron Cook, who, in his limited ST outings has shown he deserves a shot to start? Can he get a few starts under his belt in AAA to get stretched out, then take over the fifth spot? While the sample size is extremely tiny, he looks to be healthy and he has a May 1 opt-out date. If he can nail down a spot in the rotation, it can only help strengthen the bullpen, with both Bard and Aceves added to the mix.

Then there's Dice-K, who could be ready to return to the big club as early as June. Will having Bobby V, who speaks some Japanese, help him become more like the pitcher he was in Japan? If he can come back strong from TJ surgery, he could really give the rotation a boost. A fresh start with a new manager and pitching coach could be the best thing for him.

Whatever the back of the rotation ends up being, having depth is the key to avoiding another September meltdown.

Bobby V's Alright To Me

I know it's mid-Spring Training and sample sizes are on the level of a protozoa, but count me as a fan of Bobby Valentine's work so far. While his outspokenness may rub some people the wrong way, including those who wish Terry Francona were still at the helm, he has shaken up a team that had grown complacent over the years. I've heard his coaching methods criticized as micromanaging, but after the way the team performed at the beginning and end of last season, a little more supervision couldn't hurt. It's a complete 180 from Tito's hands-off management style and a necessary change in direction for the Red Sox.

Aggressive baserunning, bunting, squeeze plays, and the like have long been associated with the National League style of baseball, but now, more American League teams getting in on the act too. We've seen what teams like the Angels, Rays, and Rangers have done against the Red Sox on the base paths, especially when the recently-retired Tek was on the mound.

So far this Spring Training, the Red Sox have been doing a lot of running as well, stealing bases and going from first to third. They've run into some outs along the way, but they've also manufactured some runs and put pressure on the opposing team's defense. Take last night's 1-0 win over the Yankees for example. Pedro Ciriaco made it all the way around the bases on what was ruled a single. The ball got by the Yankees' right fielder and Ciriaco's blazing speed had the Yankees rushing throws, allowing the ball to get away and Ciriaco to cross the plate for the game's only run. Ciriaco, incidentally was the hero in Monday's game as well, blasting a 2-run shot above the extra-high Jet Blue Park Green Monster.

Bobby V has worked with the team extensively on fundamentals, both on the offensive and defensive side of the game. So far in Spring Training, his methods have been paying off, with the Red Sox near the top of the Grapefruit League with a 7-2 record. These games may not count toward the regular season, but it would be nice to keep up the good baseball in Spring Training and have it carry over once the games really do count.